Author Topic: Current Cost of Launches  (Read 8361 times)

Offline Bundolo

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Current Cost of Launches
« on: 10/18/2017 08:11 pm »
I'm wondering what the cost is to launch a freight capsule is the ISS.  By cost I mean the cost that the company would charge an outside agency to launch the craft which would be provided.  Which entitiy is the least expensive?   

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #1 on: 10/18/2017 10:52 pm »
I'm wondering what the cost is to launch a freight capsule is the ISS.  By cost I mean the cost that the company would charge an outside agency to launch the craft which would be provided.  Which entitiy is the least expensive?   

What does "... capsule is the ISS ..." mean?
a. Launch a capsule from the Earth to the ISS?
b. Or launch a capsule from the ISS into space?

Offline Bundolo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #2 on: 10/18/2017 11:03 pm »
Sorry cost TO the ISS

Offline meberbs

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #3 on: 10/18/2017 11:32 pm »
That is a more complicated question than you probably think.

Every cargo provider to the space station has different capabilities in terms of mass, volume, external payloads, burn mass for trash or intact return mass. As a result, there are no straight apples to apples comparisons. The only commercial companies with this capability are SpaceX, Orbital (Soon to be purchased by Northrop Grumman), and Sierra Nevada (still under development). Relatedly, both Boeing and SpaceX are working on crewed transport, which would also include some cargo.

Here is a reference to the last purchase of additional cargo missions by NASA under CRS. It includes some of the pricing information which states that the price per mission from SpaceX seems to have been in the $133 - $150 million range.

The large variety of options in the CRS 2 contract (all providers offered multiple mission options that can be switched between missions during the contract) means that NASA has not provided enough information to know the real prices. The $14 billion maximum value for the CRS 2 contract as I understand it is based on NASA picking all of the providers for the maximum number of missions each. There is simply not enough information to get down to individual costs, and this is partially deliberate, because to do so would require NASA to reveal details about the cost breakdown for mission options that it would not have permission from the companies to share, and actual costs are unknown until during execution when NASA selects specific options.

Online gongora

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #4 on: 10/19/2017 12:45 am »
When you say the craft is provided do you mean just an inert capsule or a craft with its own propulsion and guidance systems?  If it's a craft with its own propulsion you're just talking about a satellite launch, in which case Falcon 9/Soyuz/Proton (~$60-70M) would be cheaper than Antares/Atlas 5 (~$80-100M?).  If the mass is low enough other launchers like Vega, smaller O/ATK launchers,  or whatever other Russian launchers are actually flying at the moment might come into play.
« Last Edit: 10/19/2017 12:48 am by gongora »

Offline savuporo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #5 on: 10/19/2017 04:17 am »
If you are just looking for a payload delivery ( not a whole separate spacecraft ) there are companies that facilitate this, with fairly transparent pricing. Nanoracks and Spaceflight Inc
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline woods170

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #6 on: 10/19/2017 09:14 am »
I'm wondering what the cost is to launch a freight capsule is the ISS.  By cost I mean the cost that the company would charge an outside agency to launch the craft which would be provided.  Which entitiy is the least expensive?   
According to Wikipedia (ahem) NASA's Cargo Resupply Contract totaled $3.5 billion for 20 launches, or about $175 million each, averaged between SpaceX Falcon/Dragon and Orbital Antares/Cygnus.  The follow-on CRS-2 contract costs were hidden, but appeared to have increased (probably closer to $200 million per mission). 

 - Ed Kyle

You can't compare pricing of CRS to that of CRS-2. It's apples to oranges:

CRS was a contract with a maximum value of $3.5 billion for the delivery of a minimum amount of 20 metric tons of cargo (both pressurized and unpressurized) to the ISS.

CRS-2 is a contract with a maximum value of $14 billion for a minimum number of 6 missions each, per provider.

So, the first contract was priced based on upmass requirements. The second contract is priced on number of missions. Apples to oranges.

Sources:
- https://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/dec/HQ_C08-069_ISS_Resupply.html
- https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-international-space-station-cargo-transport-contracts
- http://cdn.defensedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/post_attachment/132009.pdf
- http://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2016/01/15/nasa-awards-crs-2-missions-to-orbital-atk-snc-and-spacex/
« Last Edit: 10/19/2017 09:39 am by woods170 »

Offline woods170

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #7 on: 10/19/2017 01:38 pm »
I'm wondering what the cost is to launch a freight capsule is the ISS.  By cost I mean the cost that the company would charge an outside agency to launch the craft which would be provided.  Which entitiy is the least expensive?   
According to Wikipedia (ahem) NASA's Cargo Resupply Contract totaled $3.5 billion for 20 launches, or about $175 million each, averaged between SpaceX Falcon/Dragon and Orbital Antares/Cygnus.  The follow-on CRS-2 contract costs were hidden, but appeared to have increased (probably closer to $200 million per mission). 

 - Ed Kyle

You can't compare pricing of CRS to that of CRS-2. It's apples to oranges:

CRS was a contract with a maximum value of $3.5 billion for the delivery of a minimum amount of 20 metric tons of cargo (both pressurized and unpressurized) to the ISS.

CRS-2 is a contract with a maximum value of $14 billion for a minimum number of 6 missions each, per provider.

So, the first contract was priced based on upmass requirements. The second contract is priced on number of missions. Apples to oranges.

Sources:
- https://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/dec/HQ_C08-069_ISS_Resupply.html
- https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-international-space-station-cargo-transport-contracts
- http://cdn.defensedaily.com/wp-content/uploads/post_attachment/132009.pdf
- http://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2016/01/15/nasa-awards-crs-2-missions-to-orbital-atk-snc-and-spacex/
I'm not "comparing" the two contracts.  I mentioned that CRS-2 has hidden its costs and then I made a per-launch guess.

The Commercial Crew contracts were $3.4 billion for 12 flights, or $283 million each (average).  That makes me think that CRS-2 must be somewhere between CRS-1 and Commercial Crew, which would be roughly $200 million.  Its a guesstimate.  There are lots of estimates out there.  Motley Fool estimated that CRS-2 cost $628 million per flight!

 - Ed Kyle
Guestimates won't do. Read the OP again. What does it cost to launch a freight spacecraft to the ISS?

The only hard numbers available now are for CRS and ATV:
- CRS: $3.5 billion for 30 missions (10 for Orbital, 20 for SpaceX). Or, on average, $116,7 million per mission.
- ATV: $532 million per mission.

So, what does it cost to launch a freight spacecraft to the ISS? Answer: from $116,7 million to $532 million.

There are no hard numbers for CRS-2 available and there won't be until the final number of missions, to be flown under CRS-2, has been determined. That will be somewhere in the 2022 - 2024 time frame IMO.

Online gongora

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #8 on: 10/19/2017 01:43 pm »
We don't have per-flight costs for CRS-2, we don't even have enough info to guess.

Another thing we also don't have is any idea of what the OP is really looking for, so the next person that replies in this thread should be the original poster to clarify their intentions.

Offline RonM

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #9 on: 10/19/2017 02:07 pm »
Guestimates won't do. Read the OP again. What does it cost to launch a freight spacecraft to the ISS?

The only hard numbers available now are for CRS and ATV:
- CRS: $3.5 billion for 30 missions (10 for Orbital, 20 for SpaceX). Or, on average, $116,7 million per mission.
- ATV: $532 million per mission.

So, what does it cost to launch a freight spacecraft to the ISS? Answer: from $116,7 million to $532 million.

There are no hard numbers for CRS-2 available and there won't be until the final number of missions, to be flown under CRS-2, has been determined. That will be somewhere in the 2022 - 2024 time frame IMO.

If anyone knows the mass of cargo sent to ISS per mission, then we can determine the price per kg. That would be a more interesting answer than per mission. Would be best to calculate Cygnus, Dragon, and ATV separately for a comparison.

Online gongora

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #10 on: 10/19/2017 02:23 pm »
I've asked the OP to send me a clarification of the question.  I will unlock the thread when I get that.

Online gongora

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #11 on: 10/19/2017 04:20 pm »
The OP is more interested in what could launch a theoretical capsule of a certain size to LEO and was using the ISS runs as a stand-in for that, not really looking for the price of a complete ISS cargo mission.

I think the SpaceX Dragon capsules have been running around 10MT recently, the Progress/Soyuz/Cygnuz capsules a few tons less than that, the Japanese HTV (and the retired European ATV) vehicles more than that.  You could probably search Wikipedia for those vehicles to get some idea of their sizes, or go to something like http://www.spacelaunchreport.com/ and pull up the launch logs from recent years to get an idea of what launchers are hauling certain payload classes.  You might also want to look at the reports in these threads:
   Satellite Industry Association's annual "State of Satellite Industry"
   FAA Annual Compendiums of Commercial Space Transportation

Offline Bundolo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #12 on: 10/19/2017 04:45 pm »
I've been asked to clarify more about the payload:  Weight approx 6000Kg, height 5.2m, diameter 2,25m
Hope this helps.
Jeff

Offline Rabidpanda

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #13 on: 10/19/2017 05:10 pm »
Is it a satellite or pressurized cargo?

Offline envy887

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #14 on: 10/19/2017 05:14 pm »
I've been asked to clarify more about the payload:  Weight approx 6000Kg, height 5.2m, diameter 2,25m
Hope this helps.
Jeff

For 6000 kg to LEO, you're looking at Soyuz, Long March 3, or Falcon 9 as the cheapest options, in the $50-$60 million range, I think. Antares, Proton, or Zenit could also work, but would be more like $70-$80 million.

Offline Bundolo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #15 on: 10/19/2017 05:27 pm »
Would the falcon heavy be an option when it comes on line?

Online gongora

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #16 on: 10/19/2017 05:32 pm »
Would the falcon heavy be an option when it comes on line?

It would be complete overkill unless you're launching the capsule a lot farther than LEO.

Offline Bundolo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #17 on: 10/19/2017 06:21 pm »
what about if I want to send  directly to the moon.  Originally plan was to put the capsule into LOE then boost it into lunar orbit.  That was because there weren't heavy lifters available to do it in one shot, but it appears that the Falcon heavy might be ready within the next few years.

Offline envy887

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #18 on: 10/19/2017 06:23 pm »
what about if I want to send  directly to the moon.  Originally plan was to put the capsule into LOE then boost it into lunar orbit.  That was because there weren't heavy lifters available to do it in one shot, but it appears that the Falcon heavy might be ready within the next few years.

Falcon Heavy lists for $90 million for 8,000 kg to GTO, and could do right about 6,000 kg on a translunar injection for the same flight profile and presumeably thee same price. You would have to supply propulsion to insert into lunar orbit, and that propulsion would be a part of the 6,000 kg to TLI.

Offline Bundolo

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Re: Current Cost of Launches
« Reply #19 on: 10/19/2017 06:36 pm »
Thanks for that.  It answers the question.  It appears that would be the most efficient booster - do it in ONE launch rather than having to send a second booster up.  The package has it's own propulsion to inject into orbit, land and take-off.  One more question what is the maximum payload the Falcon could send to translunar? 

Tags: SpaceX Soyuz 
 

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