Author Topic: Space Tourism Predictions?  (Read 9478 times)

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #20 on: 06/15/2017 10:42 pm »
Back to tourism - its part of the "hospitality market", where events, even stressful ones, are usually in some way attached to resorts/hotels.

I disagree with that completely. You don't have to rent a room to be a tourist.
No, you don't. But you often do. Usually as part of a package. When you pay for something big, it usually comes as a package...

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So Ron, suggest that Bigelow would likely be the best authority on actual "space tourism" (and when it'll happen).

Not sure why, since Bigelow's initial market is sovereign states, not space hotels - at least the last time I heard.
A precursor in the hospitality market is to arrange venues for matters of state. Originally many embassies were run , or in, or converted hotels. Same business.

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Because a "space resort" as a hub/destination for such would be the "magnet" for such. Imagine eventually some kind of "space Disneyland" as the ultimate direction, way beyond Space Mountain. Or perhaps a hotel on the Moon, with scenic mountains illuminated by earth shine.

My observation on tourism is that it is an outgrowth of industry and commerce, not a leader. For instance, Disneyland could not have been built without the surrounding area already being developed and a ready supply of workers who had reasonably affordable & comfortable places to live.
Tourism and hospitality are among the oldest businesses. They predate modern economies.

(Not to boor you, but I was ignorant as well about this, and had a crash course on it on a long Pacific flight ending with a visit to one of the largest resorts in the world. But if you bother to look into it, yes, you'll understand what I've said above.)

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I just don't see that being able to be duplicated in space until we have a large population in space - which won't happen anytime soon.
Nor I.

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Back to adventurism:

The point is a worthy and lifelong accomplishment. For those of extreme wealth, there is a "power" aspect to it as well, to trade in the risk of life.
...
I think the difference between tourism and adventurers is that tourism has little risk.
... and little training/necessary involvement.
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Sure, you could die on a roller coaster, but the odds are probably lower than you dying from many other routine things like getting hit by a car in the parking lot of the theme park.


To make it safe, survivable, and durable.

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For an adventurer though there is far more risk, especially if they are doing something not yet proven by others. That's why I view activities like Virgin Galactic sub-orbital rides are tourism, but at least the first private flyby of the Moon as being done by adventurers.
From my sources, understand that both VG/BO will require training and evaluation of passengers in advance of flight.

From my contacts with probable "further beyond Kármán line", they will actually have flight duties, as on Soyuz, and will require similar training as well.

Perhaps, like with the Autopia, it will evolve into a ride with a line. Or, like with a cruise ship/airliner, a staff of trained stewards that will keep you from killing yourself during the flight.

A little background. Have professionally analyzed the "space tourism" market. As a professional, you don't have the option to rename/redefine.

So what is the precise definition, or at least precise enough for this conversation? Anyone not professionally going into space, anyone in space who is not specifically contracted or employed by a national space program?
Flight above the Kármán line as an avocation.

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Question: If employees of a company like BO were to ride NS into space, would they be tourists?
By market definition, yes.

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Would they be if they were not actively functioning as test pilots---is there anything such crew could do, even if they were "on the clock," since the entire flight is automated?
Be careful, this is not so cut and dried.

Wouldn't you say that ISS transit on Soyuz is likewise ... and yet it takes considerable training before a flight, even for a paid "tourist"? And much of all spaceflight, even for the лоцман, is automated.

There is much more to it than the experience.

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I think that BO is likely to send a few people up on NS at the very least, which would necessarily happen before they get NG up and running.

Was surprised by that as well. Yet, according to Bezos/BO, they were going to have weekly flights for almost a year leading up to human occupancy. There's nothing to suggest resumption of even a part of this.

So you stick a few seats in, get a volunteer, and press the button?

^
In an admittedly blunt way, I am pointing out those who pay for these trips are not professional astronauts.
They do not have the vocation of astronaut.

Many of them are private pilots, and a few are former military pilots.

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Training aside, they're essentially just passengers and won't be responsible for either piloting or repair of these systems. The criteria that one must have trained for spaceflight to have a valid opinion on this is admittedly a very high bar (exceedingly few of the global population has had that luxury) and it would almost certainly rule out the majority of people on these boards from participating in further discussions.
Am trying to communicate about this. Has a bearing on my OP. Which otherwise seems to be misunderstood.

Even if you are not "working the controls realtime", you do need training to comport/safe yourself for such a journey. Including things like eating, cleaning, and toilet

(You and Ron can debate semantics of what to call it and why. Then you can communicate that genius to others worldwide. I will stand by in awe and rapture at the accomplishment ...  ::) )

Offline tater

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #21 on: 06/15/2017 11:25 pm »
Yeah, I was expecting a busy summer of test flights which have not materialized. Not least because I will engage in my own tourism and drive down there (it's about a 5-6 hour drive from my house) at some point when they show signs (and a NOTAM).

I guess I will find it surprising if they don't start back up with flights soon.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #22 on: 06/16/2017 04:16 am »
Back to tourism - its part of the "hospitality market", where events, even stressful ones, are usually in some way attached to resorts/hotels.

I disagree with that completely. You don't have to rent a room to be a tourist.
No, you don't. But you often do. Usually as part of a package. When you pay for something big, it usually comes as a package...

Ah, now I understand what you're saying, since in some countries, like the UK and Japan, a significant amount of vacation travel that involves air travel is booked as part of a package.

That is not the case here in the U.S. though. Not that it doesn't happen, just that the vast amount of tourism is individually booked and not purchased as part of a package.
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So Ron, suggest that Bigelow would likely be the best authority on actual "space tourism" (and when it'll happen).
Not sure why, since Bigelow's initial market is sovereign states, not space hotels - at least the last time I heard.
A precursor in the hospitality market is to arrange venues for matters of state. Originally many embassies were run , or in, or converted hotels. Same business.
Countries are not planning to lease Bigelow stations to open up embassies in space - they are doing it for scientific reasons.
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Because a "space resort" as a hub/destination for such would be the "magnet" for such. Imagine eventually some kind of "space Disneyland" as the ultimate direction, way beyond Space Mountain. Or perhaps a hotel on the Moon, with scenic mountains illuminated by earth shine.

My observation on tourism is that it is an outgrowth of industry and commerce, not a leader. For instance, Disneyland could not have been built without the surrounding area already being developed and a ready supply of workers who had reasonably affordable & comfortable places to live.
Tourism and hospitality are among the oldest businesses. They predate modern economies.

(Not to boor you, but I was ignorant as well about this, and had a crash course on it on a long Pacific flight ending with a visit to one of the largest resorts in the world. But if you bother to look into it, yes, you'll understand what I've said above.)

I may not have mentioned this previously, but I've had the chance to spend some time in the modern tourism industry, including attending their largest conferences. My perspectives are born out of studies of the business models for various segments of the tourism marketplace, including adventure, experiential, concierge, itinerary services, itinerary suggestion services, and the like.

Modern day tourism is relatively benign from a risk standpoint, especially since the vast majority of it takes place in places that are well trod. The Great Smokey Mountains are the most visited U.S. national park, London is the most visited city in the world for tourism, etc.

But if you look at any tourism activity or destination, there is a HUGE amount of infrastructure that supports it. And that does not exist in space, nor would it be easy to set up.

Which is the other factor, business risk. Other than Virgin Galactic, the tourism industry is typically shy of creating brand new tourism categories that are both expensive and risky. Robert Bigelow, who is an expert in the lodging industry here on Earth, is not planning to build lodging in space, he's building science laboratories for lease.

Which is why I don't think space tourism will be a factor anytime soon.

I think that's as much as I can add to this topic...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Chasm

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #23 on: 06/17/2017 09:56 pm »
Say there is space tourism in the first place. ;)
I can see NS flying tourists for quite some time. Offering a gradual approach to customers, allowing them to self select.

Fly on a Zero G flight, get the ticket reimbursed if you book NS.
Fly on NS, get the ticket reimbursed if you book a rounds around the ball on NG.
And so on and so forth.

Might take longer than expected though.
The prices for science payloads on NS are high and there is always the risk that a flight goes wrong.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #24 on: 06/21/2020 04:55 pm »
Three years from the creation of this thread and nothing yet ...

Bumping today for the SS1 anniversary

https://twitter.com/gregwautry/status/1274734317021716481

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16 years ago I sat on the @MojaveAirport flight-line & watched commercial human spaceflight launch! Thx to Burt Rutan, Paul Allen, Patti Grace Smith :(, Stu Witt & others for giving me a front row seat to history. I propose June 21 be national #NewSpaceDay! @kevinomccarthy
« Last Edit: 06/21/2020 04:57 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline GWH

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #25 on: 06/22/2020 04:59 pm »
Virgin Galactic getting into orbital space tourism to the ISS (ride by others):
https://twitter.com/virgingalactic/status/1275023567831404545

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #26 on: 09/26/2020 09:29 pm »
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How SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin and others compete in the growing space tourism market
PUBLISHED SAT, SEP 26 2020  9:30 AM EDT  UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
Michael Sheetz
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

There’s an emerging industry thought to be only science fiction not too long ago that’s close to becoming a reality: space tourism.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/26/space-tourism-how-spacex-virgin-galactic-blue-origin-axiom-compete.html

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1309860710307049472

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Space consultancy @NSR_SatCom broke out its expectations for suborbital vs. orbital tourism, by 2028:

Suborbital: $2.8 billion market, $10.4 billion total revenue

Orbital: $610 million market, $3.6 billion total revenue
cnbc.com/2020/09/26/spa…

I think those suborbital numbers are far too high. This:

https://twitter.com/lauraforczyk/status/1309912166607269890

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Suborbital - no way. That's an "in what reality?" prediction.

Orbital - maybe. Unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility.

Honestly, analysts especially need to stop overhyping these markets. These predictions that come out range from poor to ridiculous.

twitter.com/lauraforczyk/status/1309914033282220032

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Speaking as a space industry analyst who studies emerging space markets and is writing a book on space tourism... Just, like, this article is ridiculous. It's not your fault Michael. People are telling you really off-the-wall things they want investors to hear to sell reports.

https://twitter.com/lauraforczyk/status/1309914514540957696

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The problem is short-term thinking. "We can make a poor prediction now because no one will remember it was wrong 3 years from now." Meanwhile, it will increase news coverage, investments, and sales.

Space tourism is a long-term market with a long history. Perspective is key.
« Last Edit: 09/26/2020 09:33 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #27 on: 09/26/2020 11:11 pm »
Orbital market predictions seem realistic. SpaceX already have 4 -6 missions booked for next two years. Missions to ISS are limited to 2 a year till Axiom start adding modules in 2024-25. At which stage they can handle a few missions a year. These are likely to be combination of short and long stay. Short stay of week or two for tourists and 3 month stays for astronaut training which will be paid for by their country.

Limiting factor for freeflyer missions is vehicle production and launch rate. While I'd like to go to space, being stuck in capsule with 3 others for 5 days isn't that appealing. Will be interesting see how many of these sell. I'd rather wait and pay bit more for luxury of  spacestation.

An intermediate solutuion is using Cygnus to provide extra living space for freeflyer missions. Cygnus would stay in orbit for year or two supporting multiple missions. If Cygnus stays close to ISS could also deliver crew to ISS if there is failure of capsule.
« Last Edit: 09/26/2020 11:15 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Space Tourism Predictions?
« Reply #28 on: 09/26/2020 11:32 pm »
At this point in history we're not talking "tourism" in the normal sense, since tourists rarely do anything that involves significant risk.

What we're talking about is more akin to Adventure travel, or as a stretch, Experiential travel.

Adventure travel is:
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...a type of niche tourism, involving exploration or travel with a certain degree of risk (real or perceived), and which may require special skills and physical exertion.

So that limits the potential market immediately to people that can accept risk, and are in good physical shape. Plus they have to be able to wear a spacesuit for hours at a time, and deal with direction for others.

Then you have to find people in that category that ALSO have enough disposable money for such activity.

I tend to agree with Laura Seward Forczyk in thinking that the market is not very big. Certainly not big enough to sustain itself outside of government funded facilities and support systems.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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