What do you see as the most important venture in space exploration right now?I like that there's a desire to want to send people to Mars. I have my scepticism about how and when that will happen, but I will not stand in their way because somebody's got to dream like that. You can live in a country where everything is stable, but if it's a place where no-one dreams about a different future, then I don't know that it's where I would want to live. I admire the people who have the tenacity to send others to Mars.What makes you sceptical?The money. To go to Mars because you want to, my reading of history says that doesn't work. We didn't go to the Moon because we wanted to. We may remember it that way, because it serves a certain self-image – we're Americans, we're explorers, it's in our DNA, so we went to the Moon. That's just assuming it's a thing you do, without asking what's driving this, what's allocating the money for this? When you do that, you find that war and economics are the big drivers of major expenditures. I think there are many drivers for sending people into space – touristic, militaristic; these are very potent drivers of human conduct and the expenditure of financial capital. I imagine tourism, mining of asteroids as a frontier space activity. I'm sure the world's first trillionaire is the person who learns how to mine asteroids.
My God.I find myself actually agreeing with NDT for, like, the first time ever.He's right. Unless the government has a pressing cause (such as wartime), why would they put a lot of money into a Mars adventure at this stage? That's not to say it can't happen, but there'd have to be a very strong justification to compel most of Congress to do so.
His main issue is that he has "only government can do this" blinders on. NdGT doesn't see why there's money in it because he has a "research is the only reason" mindset. I find him less and less credible about anything to do with NASA, or anything to do with government, really. Musk's response: Hold my beer, watch this.(not really, Musk is working with NASA and will leverage assets, share data, etc... but if NASA wasn't there any more and it was only commercial from here on out? I think he'd still be trying to find ways to do it)NdGT is right about a Mars mission if it's purely government/SLS ... never happen.
By heck I actually agree with you
as he seems to be speaking as if there aren't people like Mr Musk, who yes will take government help in the way you describe, but the actual money will come from private industry. In this case I think it's going to be the private sector that makes this happen not the government and that's what he seems to completely miss.
Title of this thread is misleading. "scepticism about how and when that will happen" is very different from "doubts humans will ever walk on Mars." While the second one represents a terrible attitude that something can't and won't be done, even 100 or 500 years from now, the first is much more reasonable. His skepticism is based on money, and NASA's current plans are too expensive to ever be effective. Musk is lowering the price, and while I think ITS will work out, it is a crazy plan and Musk realizes that too. Since the main way there will be enough funding for it is if their satellite constellation is a great success, people who doubt if on funding have a good point today, just look at the funding slide from the ITS announcement.When he talks about expanding into space, he mentions tourism and economic motivating factors. I think his forward vision is more similar to Bezos' which doesn't involve Mars in the near term at all.
My God.I find myself actually agreeing with NDT for, like, the first time ever.
His main issue is that he has "only government can do this" blinders on.
His argument is predicated on the assumption that a manned Mars mission would exceed the current NASA HSF budget by a wide margin,
Quote from: Star One on 05/02/2017 02:23 pmBy heck I actually agree with youIKR !!! !!!Quote as he seems to be speaking as if there aren't people like Mr Musk, who yes will take government help in the way you describe, but the actual money will come from private industry. In this case I think it's going to be the private sector that makes this happen not the government and that's what he seems to completely miss.This is a persistent and consistent blind spot with him, not just about Mars but about commercial space in general. I otherwise like him, think he's doing good things for STEM and raising science awareness in general but this? It's enough that I semi-automatically discount anything he says about what's possible in space. ... I think my amazing peopleism is tempered by reality, it could all fail, but there's some hope.
QuoteWhat do you see as the most important venture in space exploration right now?I like that there's a desire to want to send people to Mars. I have my scepticism about how and when that will happen, but I will not stand in their way because somebody's got to dream like that. You can live in a country where everything is stable, but if it's a place where no-one dreams about a different future, then I don't know that it's where I would want to live. I admire the people who have the tenacity to send others to Mars.What makes you sceptical?I think there are many drivers for sending people into space – touristic, militaristic; I imagine tourism, mining of asteroids as a frontier space activity. I'm sure the world's first trillionaire is the person who learns how to mine asteroids.http://www.wired.co.uk/article/neil-degrasse-tyson-welcome-to-the-universe
What do you see as the most important venture in space exploration right now?I like that there's a desire to want to send people to Mars. I have my scepticism about how and when that will happen, but I will not stand in their way because somebody's got to dream like that. You can live in a country where everything is stable, but if it's a place where no-one dreams about a different future, then I don't know that it's where I would want to live. I admire the people who have the tenacity to send others to Mars.What makes you sceptical?I think there are many drivers for sending people into space – touristic, militaristic; I imagine tourism, mining of asteroids as a frontier space activity. I'm sure the world's first trillionaire is the person who learns how to mine asteroids.
Maybe as a college undergrad I'm young and naive because I want a job, and because I haven't watched cancellations and budget cuts for forty- but I see no reason to believe SpaceX or another similarly motivated company won't take is to Mars eventually. It may not immediately be the grandiose 100+ people colonization ships that Musk likes to talk about, and it may not be as soon as he likes to say (see Falcon Heavy)- but he has given us no reason to doubt the Mars plans yet.
Of course, the big issue is money. Neil is probably right about government. What he doesn't understand is the space enthusiast billionaire. If SpaceX can generate enough income, Elon is sending ships to Mars. If SpaceX cannot generate enough income, Elon needs to sweet talk his buddy Jeff Bezos. As the fifth richest man in the world, Mr. Bezos has enough wealth to send ships to Mars as a hobby.
Quote from: RonM on 05/02/2017 03:18 pmOf course, the big issue is money. Neil is probably right about government. What he doesn't understand is the space enthusiast billionaire. If SpaceX can generate enough income, Elon is sending ships to Mars. If SpaceX cannot generate enough income, Elon needs to sweet talk his buddy Jeff Bezos. As the fifth richest man in the world, Mr. Bezos has enough wealth to send ships to Mars as a hobby.I think it was second richest at last count, Amazon has apparently been having a good year.
Quote from: meberbs on 05/02/2017 03:58 pmQuote from: RonM on 05/02/2017 03:18 pmOf course, the big issue is money. Neil is probably right about government. What he doesn't understand is the space enthusiast billionaire. If SpaceX can generate enough income, Elon is sending ships to Mars. If SpaceX cannot generate enough income, Elon needs to sweet talk his buddy Jeff Bezos. As the fifth richest man in the world, Mr. Bezos has enough wealth to send ships to Mars as a hobby.I think it was second richest at last count, Amazon has apparently been having a good year.Not to go too far OT but so has Tesla according to all the press reports.
I am sceptical too. There doesn't seem to be any funding for a lander. ...
Quote from: yg1968 on 05/02/2017 02:07 pmI am sceptical too. There doesn't seem to be any funding for a lander. ...That's why the "the second stage IS the transfer module IS the lander IS the return module" of ITS is the only thing that makes sense.You will never get a half dozen elements funded "the NASA way". Or if it is funded it will take eternity plus 30 years.