Author Topic: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.  (Read 38571 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #80 on: 04/28/2017 02:24 am »
All of the major components for Apollo except for KSC launch infrastructure were already being worked on, facilities in place, people staffed at a significant scale ...
Well the KSC launch infrastructure is already in place in this case. SpaceX's facilities are in place, and has over 5000 (or is it 6000?) employees, which is definitely "at a significant scale." And from what I can tell, SpaceX HAS been working on the major components to this already and were already planning for flight testing the ITS spaceship in 2018.
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This discussion is nonsense.
Not at all.

Let's wait and see what Musk is proposing for an update to ITS.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #81 on: 04/28/2017 02:33 am »
A "smaller" ITS is a completely different vehicle.
Where does KSC have that infrastructure you are mentioning for this? GSE for the methane stages and everything included.
Last time I looked not even the infrastructure for FH was competed and now you are suggesting they are shutting down that pad again soon to build something new for a Mars stunt using a nonexistent vehicle three years from now just because someone throws money at them?
You are suggesting the government could throw so much money at them that Musk would scrap his existing business including pissing off customers who are already waiting for their long delayed flights just to do this?

Why?

Plus, last time I looked at his Instagram account Musk seemed to have other priorities right now.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #82 on: 04/28/2017 02:34 am »
What is this "Mini ITS", btw? Or a Raptor upper stage?
You mean the Raptor upper stage in SpaceX's Raptor contract with the Air Force?
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Where does all this unobtainium come from
How is this unobtainium? SpaceX went from first successful launch of Falcon 1 in 2008 to first launch and RECOVERY of Dragon in 2010, just 2 years.

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As of today there isn't even a fully functioning and tested Raptor engine, subscale or not
There is a functioning subscale Raptor. It has been test-fired, including the powerhead. The Raptor engine was tested in 2016 (though, like BE-4, its pieces have been tested years ago already), I'm suggesting it could be ready for use in 2018. By comparison, the BE-4 has not been test-fired yet but is expected to be tested here sometime in 2017, but ULA expects Vulcan to launch in 2019.

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This is one of the most nonsensical discussions I've ever seen on this site.
You must not visit this site very much, then.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #83 on: 04/28/2017 02:36 am »
A "smaller" ITS is a completely different vehicle.
Where does KSC have that infrastructure you are mentioning for this? GSE for the methane stages and everything included.
Last time I looked not even the infrastructure for FH was competed and now you are suggesting they are shutting down that pad again soon to build something new for a Mars stunt using a nonexistent vehicle three years from now just because someone throws money at them?
You are suggesting the government could throw so much money at them that Musk would scrap his existing business including pissing off customers who are already waiting for their long delayed flights just to do this?

Why?

Plus, last time I looked at his Instagram account Musk seemed to have other priorities right now.
You're just trolling, now. Not contributing to the conversation. Let's just wait and see what Musk will announce.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #84 on: 04/28/2017 02:41 am »
Red Dragon was also scratched from 2018. I half-wonder if it's because they've decided to cancel Red Dragon to focus on accelerating this (proposed) subscale BFS instead.

2018 does happen to allow exceptionally low-energy transfers to Mars.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #85 on: 04/28/2017 02:47 am »
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
And regarding reuse, Musk himself said that what they are doing with the upper stage on FH is just a very wild shot at the problem. They are just starting to figure this out and look at how long it took for the first stage. 7 years between first flight of an F9 and the first reflight of a recovered stage. This is not something they'll compress to just a few months for the upper stage, especially since the problems involved are completely different.

How is this unobtainium? SpaceX went from first successful launch of Falcon 1 in 2008 to first launch and RECOVERY of Dragon in 2010, just 2 years.
No, they did not.
This is the whole misconception behind all of this discussion here.
SpaceX did NOT start development of F9 and Dragon and stuff only after the first F1 launch, they had already worked on them for many years when F1 first flew.

If they already had a methane stage flying or at least some Raptors or several operational pads so that they can easily spare one for a year or actually had done any manned flight or actually had flown FH, but so far they have done none of this and have enough other priorities.

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This is one of the most nonsensical discussions I've ever seen on this site.
You must not visit this site very much, then.
You mean this site is full of nonsense? Nah, mostly really good stuff here.
Granted, I typically avoid discussion threads so my impression of NSF might be a bit skewed.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 02:51 am by pippin »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #86 on: 04/28/2017 02:53 am »
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.
Am I:
1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?
2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?
3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #87 on: 04/28/2017 02:55 am »
..
SpaceX did NOT start development of F9 and Dragon and stuff only after the first F1 launch, they had already worked on them for many years when F1 first flew....
They got the COTS award in 2006. So "years" as in "two years." (Yes, they had done some stuff related to Dragon... for instance, they bought some sort of mockup of a spacecraft from I think some British company, but it was completely unrelated to the capsule design SpaceX ended up going with. SpaceX also had to prepare their COTS proposal, so they had some preliminary work there, too.)

Likewise, I'm saying it's possible SpaceX has already put in a lot of work for this. They're definitely less open about their activities than they were in the early days, when they'd have tour videos of their factory, frequent blog posts with pictures, etc.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 02:58 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #88 on: 04/28/2017 02:57 am »
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.
Am I:
1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?
2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?
3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?

I really don't care what your opinion is but _my_ opinion is that (insanities like suicide missions aside) there is no way that SpaceX could land a crew on Mars by 2020 no matter what happens or is being tried, including throwing 100% of the US federal budget at them. And that Musks knows that very well and has no such plans.

2024 might be something he might be convinced to do if you throw REALLY lots of money at him, in all other cases my opinion is he will just continue to do what he's currently doing: building a space business and evolving it towards being able to land people on Mars ASAP with no too clear schedule, yet, of when that actually will be.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 03:09 am by pippin »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #89 on: 04/28/2017 03:12 am »
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.
Am I:
1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?
2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?
3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?

I really don't care what your opinion is but _my_ opinion is that (insanities like suicide missions aside) there is now way that SpaceX could land a crew on Mars by 2020 no matter what happens or is being tried, including throwing 100% of the US federal budget at them. ...
Suicide missions not required if you send sufficient supplies and later an ascent vehicle. See? There is a way.

If that bothers you, remember this is exactly how Musk determines his optimistic timescales for what's possible. If it's not LITERALLY physically impossible, then he'll say it's possible. And that's my point. I agree 2020 is incredibly far-fetched. But given the way Musk thinks, he probably considers it a physical possibility (though very unlikely).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #90 on: 04/28/2017 03:23 am »
Suicide missions not required if you send sufficient supplies and later an ascent vehicle. See? There is a way.
Can send as many supplies if you want if you die on a failed landing or if your untested equipment you cobbled together in two years then doesn't last for 5 years on Mars.
Medical aspects aside because we simply don't have enough data to know whether you will still be able to live on earth after an extended stay on Mars with it's low gravity.
So you'd have to be prepared to die on the mission which in my book makes it a suicide mission.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 03:24 am by pippin »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #91 on: 04/28/2017 03:30 am »
...
So you'd have to be prepared to die on the mission which in my book makes it a suicide mission.
That makes it literally no different than what Elon Musk already presented at the IAC talk.

And I quote:
"Are you prepared to die? If that's okay, then you're a candidate for going." --Elon Musk. Source: http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13080836/elon-musk-spacex-mars-mission-death-risk

Your objection applies just as much to the regular ITS plan.


...and now the thread is COMPLETELY derailed.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 03:33 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #92 on: 04/28/2017 03:39 am »
...
So you'd have to be prepared to die on the mission which in my book makes it a suicide mission.
That makes it literally no different than what Elon Musk already presented at the IAC talk.

And I quote:
"Are you prepared to die? If that's okay, then you're a candidate for going." --Elon Musk. Source: http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13080836/elon-musk-spacex-mars-mission-death-risk

Your objection applies just as much to the regular ITS plan.
Depends on when ITS is going.
Give them another 15 years and there'd be more time for research so you can reduce uncertainty.
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...and now the thread is COMPLETELY derailed.
That's what it's been from the very beginning.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #93 on: 04/28/2017 03:57 am »
If you have a problem with the way SpaceX approaches risk, please discuss it in another thread.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline zodiacchris

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #94 on: 04/28/2017 04:44 am »
Hmm, the way that SpaceX approaches risk, they will probably be sending a wheel of cheese to Mars in 2020. The concept of crew to Mars in 2020, specifically using raptor technology and a mini-ITS, does strike me as somewhat random, and not supported even hint wise by what Elon has said. Bringing a second stage back Hail Mary style does not seem to imply that there is a semi developed mini ITS in the woodwork somewhere.
They also haven't send a passenger up in a cargo dragon with a rigged up life support system even though they could have done that since 2012, instead they are crossing all their Ts and dotting their Is, and have NASA astronauts fly them next year.
So yes, this thread's topic is a very unlikely and long shot, so don't be surprised if people voice their scepticism. I have valued your postings in the decade that I have been on NSF and give you cudos for a lot of good ideas and insights, but don't get to carried away with this one   :)

Online Semmel

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #95 on: 04/28/2017 05:39 am »
Robotbeat, what is this thread about? Showing Musks though process and how he set the bug in Trumps ear to get people to Mars in Trumps first term?

Offline meberbs

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #96 on: 04/28/2017 05:59 am »
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.
Am I:
1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?
2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?
3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?
I really hope the answer is "none of the above" because you would have to ignore multiple direct statements from both Musk and SpaceX to come to any of those conclusions. Anyone with L2 membership knows SpaceX is working on more than what is obviously visible including what is known in L2, but it is also known that they are still on sub-scale Raptor development, and in the phase of tank design that involves blowing up large pressure vessels. 2024 was the absolute best case as of the IAC announcement, and Musk clearly knew then that even with unlimited funding, it would likely slip. Claiming that they secretly have a design ready to go that can launch humans to Mars in 2020 is absurd.

I would like to ask what in the world makes you think that Elon Musk believes there is any path that leads to humans on Mars in 2020?

Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #97 on: 04/28/2017 06:08 am »
If you have a problem with the way SpaceX approaches risk, please discuss it in another thread.

I have absolutely no problem with the way SpaceX handles risk. To the contrary, I believe they have a very sensible way of approaching risk which is why I don't believe they are even remotely considering any of the things you are proposing here WRT landing people on Mars in 2020
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 06:09 am by pippin »

Offline savuporo

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #98 on: 04/28/2017 06:17 am »
Getting to Mars is easy...
No
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Online Jimmy_C

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #99 on: 04/28/2017 08:23 am »
I don't get the idea of exposing people to space radiation just to see how bad it is to expose people to space radiation. Hyperbolic articles (and individuals looking for funding) aside, we are confident the astronauts will be fine for during of the mission. If we're going to expose people to space radiation for tests, they might as well be exposed while doing a Mars mission (and not TOO high exposure, so we'll have to land them on the surface...).

It's not just radiation but also being able to mitigate against loss of mental performance, loss of muscular and skeletal structure, reduced kidney/immune system/other organ performance, etc. Not to mention having a high performance life support system that doesn't require much maintenance, equipment that can be relied upon, the ability to fix issues that arise, etc. The risk to the crew is greatly reduced with a relatively quick ability to abort and having the option to get replacement parts or supplies from Earth quickly. Imagine if a grave design or logistical flaw was discovered in route and a part from Earth could save the crew if they were still in orbit. Being sure one understands as much as possible beforehand isn't just prudent but necessary. The unknown unknowns are what proving ground missions help uncover.

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