How far along do you or anyone else think SpaceX is on long duration life support etc that could actually outfit a mini-ITS (which may or may not be on the drawing board) for the journey? A dragon 2 and cygnus or similar derived hodge podge might be likely... a fully integrated mini-ITS imo is just crazy for those time frames.
SpaceX isn't going to do this on their own, it would take some NASA money. Which is a lot more likely to be forthcoming from Congress if Orbital and ULA get some. Maybe a super Cygnus on DIVH to LEO rendezvous with Dragon on FH, doing a combined TMI burn after docking.
A fly-by could probably be done with two FH launches and no refueling.
If you want details about this, I suggest you try L2. SpaceX has not been idle, and the IAC talk definitely did not show everything they've been working on.I don't see why Cygnus would be better. And we know for a fact that Musk wants the upper stage reused for FH already on the FIRST FLIGHT, and that previous reuse concept video showed an ITS-like vertical landing with an implied flip from the entry position to the landing position. If it also happens to be based off of the subscale Raptors, then it's essentially a mini-ITS already. And even if it isn't, it can help retire some of the reentry risk of mini-ITS.
Quote from: envy887 on 04/26/2017 10:06 pmA fly-by could probably be done with two FH launches and no refueling.Would be slow transit, though. I don't think that would be very comfortable and there would be worries about radiation. I would do a few FH launches more (probably still cheaper than a single SLS launch) and make it a fast transit, sling around and return. Probably right about the need to refuel. One might be able to do enlarged second stages and dock those together somehow instead. Would be a lot of wasted mass going to Mars, but would probably be technologically less challenging. If money is not a problem and you can afford a few launches extra, it probably does not matter.
Maybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020. That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.
It seems like an effort to put people on Mars before and independently of ITS would make things harder for ITS rather than easier.Any form of reusability for the S2 would help not just the ITS design process but the Constellation project since farings and S2s are the next big cost once the Booster cores are rapidly reusable. Taking the reusable S2 and trying to make it into a Mars lander though would seem to just pull peoplecand resources from the ITS on a timeline not very different from what's already announced for ITS.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 04/27/2017 07:35 pmMaybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020. That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.Of course they don't want to do something senseless like that. But a few trucks full of money would make it worth the effort. Plus they could even learn something on the way.
Crew in 2020 means a test flight in 2018, which means flight hardware rolling to KSC one year from right now. Unless the coming ITS updates includes notice that they are testing a ITS precursor vehicle Grasshopper-style at McGregor this summer (or something equally surprising), sending it to Mars in 2020 with crew is completely and totally implausible.
Quote from: guckyfan on 04/27/2017 08:23 pmQuote from: Coastal Ron on 04/27/2017 07:35 pmMaybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020. That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.Of course they don't want to do something senseless like that. But a few trucks full of money would make it worth the effort. Plus they could even learn something on the way.Just like throwing money at the SLS won't speed it up much at this point, I don't think throwing money at SpaceX could speed up their ITS plans much. Kind for the same reasons 9 women can't make a baby in one month...