Author Topic: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.  (Read 38578 times)

Offline GWH

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #60 on: 04/27/2017 03:20 am »
How far along do you or anyone else think SpaceX is on long duration  life support etc that could actually outfit a mini-ITS (which may or may not be on the drawing board) for the journey?
A dragon 2 and cygnus or similar derived hodge podge might be likely... a fully integrated mini-ITS imo is just crazy for those time frames.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #61 on: 04/27/2017 03:39 am »
How far along do you or anyone else think SpaceX is on long duration  life support etc that could actually outfit a mini-ITS (which may or may not be on the drawing board) for the journey?
A dragon 2 and cygnus or similar derived hodge podge might be likely... a fully integrated mini-ITS imo is just crazy for those time frames.
If you want details about this, I suggest you try L2. SpaceX has not been idle, and the IAC talk definitely did not show everything they've been working on.

I don't see why Cygnus would be better. If you have the life support systems, might as well integrate them into the mini-ITS/reusable upper stage that you'd need for an ascent vehicle. They have 3 years from now to do it. That's plenty if they have already done preliminary work on it.

This whole idea is contingent on the idea that SpaceX has been working on more behind the scenes than they've mentioned fully publicly. There is some evidence for that, and SpaceX kept that huge composite ITS engineering pathfinder tank secret before the IAC, and that thing is huge. And we know for a fact that Musk wants the upper stage reused for FH already on the FIRST FLIGHT, and that previous reuse concept video showed an ITS-like vertical landing with an implied flip from the entry position to the landing position. If it also happens to be based off of the subscale Raptors, then it's essentially a mini-ITS already. And even if it isn't, it can help retire some of the reentry risk of mini-ITS.

Again, 2020 would be the Elon optimistic timescale of everything going right. In reality, if this were the actual plan, 2022 or 2024 would probably end up being the real dates for first landing due to inevitable technical problems or delays.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2017 03:57 am by Robotbeat »
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #62 on: 04/27/2017 03:41 am »
We'll find out when the SpaceX website is updated with the new "economical" ITS data and when Falcon Heavy gets closer to flight.
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #63 on: 04/27/2017 04:32 am »
SpaceX isn't going to do this on their own, it would take some NASA money. Which is a lot more likely to be forthcoming from Congress if Orbital and ULA get some. Maybe a super Cygnus on DIVH to LEO rendezvous with Dragon on FH, doing a combined TMI burn after docking.

If Elon has secret plans to land people on Mars in 2020, those plans certainly don't involve Cygnus or Delta IV.  As long a shot as it is for SpaceX to land people on Mars in 2020, 2022, or 2024, it would be a much longer shot if Cygnus or Delta IV were part of the mix.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #64 on: 04/27/2017 05:00 am »
A fly-by could probably be done with two FH launches and no refueling.
Would be slow transit, though. I don't think that would be very comfortable and there would be worries about radiation. I would do a few FH launches more (probably still cheaper than a single SLS launch) and make it a fast transit, sling around and return. Probably right about the need to refuel. One might be able to do enlarged second stages and dock those together somehow instead. Would be a lot of wasted mass going to Mars, but would probably be technologically less challenging. If money is not a problem and you can afford a few launches extra, it probably does not matter.

Offline GWH

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #65 on: 04/27/2017 05:10 am »
If you want details about this, I suggest you try L2. SpaceX has not been idle, and the IAC talk definitely did not show everything they've been working on.

I don't see why Cygnus would be better.

And we know for a fact that Musk wants the upper stage reused for FH already on the FIRST FLIGHT, and that previous reuse concept video showed an ITS-like vertical landing with an implied flip from the entry position to the landing position. If it also happens to be based off of the subscale Raptors, then it's essentially a mini-ITS already. And even if it isn't, it can help retire some of the reentry risk of mini-ITS.
Yes had L2 and let it lapse, may need to renew.

Cygnus *could* be better based on nextstep partnership already in place for deep space hab development.  Could be a Hodge
Podge  of other suppliers too, cygnus just being an example of one. Only building a cargo carrier mini-Its isolates the scope and allows for less contiguous tasks on critical path.
 Disimilar systems may be a plus too,  maybe not.

As for the original F9 reuse video... well things change. At this point its a coin toss as if they are developing that or parachutes. And to be blunt I think a Raptor upper stage showing up on a test  flight on a long delayed rocket that is losing customers (or on the verge of) is just crazy talk, especially when pad 2qork is already a driving constraint for not just FH but also D2  access tower.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2017 05:13 am by GWH »

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #66 on: 04/27/2017 06:24 am »
SpaceX certainly isn't going to land anyone on Mars by 2020, but it is just inside the realm of possibility that they could do an Inspiration Mars style flyby in the 2020-plus timeframe. If Red Dragon proves to be a reliable surface lander, by 2030 it is also in the realms of possibility that one could land a small crew on Mars by 2030 or so, to rendezvous with a pre-positioned surface habitat - also probably Dragon & Inflatable derived. The Red Dragon's crew would have been living in a jettisonable Hab module for the outbound trip. The Ascent Vehicle could be a Dragon-derived craft that was fueled by Solar & RTG powered ISRU, rising to rendezvous with another Dragon-derived Earth Return Vehicle waiting in Martian orbit; docked to a small Hab that would be jettisoned before Earth entry.

This would likely only be a 2 or 3 person 'Flags & Footprints' 3 or 4 week stay on Mars - similar to a mission proposed by Robert Zubrin back in 2011. Some would sneer at it as not being worth the effort. But I would disagree - it would be people on fricken' Mars, for heavens sake - done with an intelligent and ameliorating use of existing launchers and spacecraft, coupled with some new hardware development. It could be a mere precursor to the bigger and better things that Elon's ITS and maybe NASA were going to do later...
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Offline su27k

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #67 on: 04/27/2017 09:16 am »
Assuming for the moment that it is Musk who put the idea in Trump's head, I don't see why it has to be Raptor upper stage, I mean if you have the president's ear you might as well pitch your biggest plan, instead of a severely scaled-back plan, especially given your biggest plan wouldn't cost that much in terms of government budget. The timeline in the Mars presentation already fulfills the "at worst, during my second term" part, for the "try and do it during my first term" part I think they can postpone the BFR booster and focus on BFS instead, assuming it can indeed do SSTO, they can use SSTO tanker BFS to fill up a SSTO cargo BFS and do a small cargo run in 2020. The timeline gives "Ship Testing" between mid 2018 to the end of 2019, so meeting the 2020 window is not entirely out of question, if the SSTO assumption holds.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2017 09:25 am by su27k »

Offline envy887

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #68 on: 04/27/2017 11:17 am »
A fly-by could probably be done with two FH launches and no refueling.
Would be slow transit, though. I don't think that would be very comfortable and there would be worries about radiation. I would do a few FH launches more (probably still cheaper than a single SLS launch) and make it a fast transit, sling around and return. Probably right about the need to refuel. One might be able to do enlarged second stages and dock those together somehow instead. Would be a lot of wasted mass going to Mars, but would probably be technologically less challenging. If money is not a problem and you can afford a few launches extra, it probably does not matter.
2 FH can do a 100 day transit with 2 Dragons and a small hab. But that's not enough volume if they land, and has no way to return (not a big problem for a flyby, but SpaceX doesn't seem interested in a flyby).

A small BFS on FH solves both volume and return issues, but with a lot more low-TRL technology.

Offline pippin

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #69 on: 04/27/2017 05:43 pm »
What is this "Mini ITS", btw? Or a Raptor upper stage? Where does all this unobtainium come from only three years from now when SpaceX can't even get FH up and running in five?

As of today there isn't even a fully functioning and tested Raptor engine, subscale or not, let alone all these new spacecraft, stages, ground infrastructure etc.

This is one of the most nonsensical discussions I've ever seen on this site.

Offline spacenut

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #70 on: 04/27/2017 05:53 pm »
We geared up and fought WWII at impressive speed.  Several hundred ships, thousands of tanks, planes, trucks, landing craft, guns, etc.  With enough money, people, and urgency, things can get done.  Just like Apollo.  Plans for Apollo were in the works before Kennedy made his famous speech, money just spead up the process. 

Personally NASA back in the 1960's might even had done is a little cheaper.  Johnson moved NASA headquarters to Houston.  He also had much of NASA spread over several states.  This was a political move to get those states senators and representatives on board with funding for NASA.  If things were more centrally located like at the Cape or using existing facilities like at Marshall, costs may have been brought down and still accomplished the mission.

Offline pippin

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How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #71 on: 04/27/2017 06:09 pm »
All of the major components for Apollo except for KSC launch infrastructure were already being worked on, facilities in place, people staffed at a significant scale etc and still it took more than twice as long as this with all the money in the world being poured into it.

This discussion is nonsense.
« Last Edit: 04/27/2017 06:12 pm by pippin »

Offline envy887

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #72 on: 04/27/2017 07:11 pm »
Crew in 2020 means a test flight in 2018, which means flight hardware rolling to KSC one year from right now. Unless the coming ITS updates includes notice that they are testing a ITS precursor vehicle Grasshopper-style at McGregor this summer (or something equally surprising), sending it to Mars in 2020 with crew is completely and totally implausible.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #73 on: 04/27/2017 07:35 pm »
Maybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020.  That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Ludus

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #74 on: 04/27/2017 07:36 pm »
It seems like an effort to put people on Mars before and independently of ITS would make things harder for ITS rather than easier.

Any form of reusability for the S2 would help not just the ITS design process but the Constellation project since farings and S2s are the next big cost once the Booster cores are rapidly reusable.

Taking the reusable S2 and trying to make it into a Mars lander though would seem to just pull peoplecand resources from the ITS on a timeline not very different from what's already announced for ITS.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #75 on: 04/27/2017 08:23 pm »
Maybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020.  That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.

Of course they don't want to do something senseless like that. But a few trucks full of money would make it worth the effort. Plus they could even learn something on the way.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #76 on: 04/28/2017 12:57 am »
It seems like an effort to put people on Mars before and independently of ITS would make things harder for ITS rather than easier.

Any form of reusability for the S2 would help not just the ITS design process but the Constellation project since farings and S2s are the next big cost once the Booster cores are rapidly reusable.

Taking the reusable S2 and trying to make it into a Mars lander though would seem to just pull peoplecand resources from the ITS on a timeline not very different from what's already announced for ITS.
It would essentially have to be a miniature ITS in order to work. It would be a prototype of ITS.

People have this mistaken notion that the idea here is to hobble something together using Dragons and such. That is not what I'm suggesting.
« Last Edit: 04/28/2017 12:58 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #77 on: 04/28/2017 01:51 am »
Maybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020.  That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.

Of course they don't want to do something senseless like that. But a few trucks full of money would make it worth the effort. Plus they could even learn something on the way.

Just like throwing money at the SLS won't speed it up much at this point, I don't think throwing money at SpaceX could speed up their ITS plans much.  Kind for the same reasons 9 women can't make a baby in one month...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #78 on: 04/28/2017 02:17 am »
Crew in 2020 means a test flight in 2018, which means flight hardware rolling to KSC one year from right now. Unless the coming ITS updates includes notice that they are testing a ITS precursor vehicle Grasshopper-style at McGregor this summer (or something equally surprising), sending it to Mars in 2020 with crew is completely and totally implausible.
Consider these facts:
1) Musk has been obsessed with 2nd stage reuse for a long time now. From hints I've heard, they've done some interesting experiments with the 2nd stage after the primary mission is accomplished.
2) 2nd Stage reuse was the assumed goal for a while, and was part of that one Falcon 9 reuse video. It looks a heck of a lot like a small BFS.
3) SpaceX got an Air Force Contract for Raptor development that explicitly stated it was for an upper stage for Falcon Heavy. The subscale Raptor they tested is the right size for such an upper stage. It's not just a BS stunt they pulled for the IAC talk, the test was a critical part of meeting the requirements for the USAF contract. Now was SpaceX lying about wanting to build a Falcon Heavy upper stage using Raptor? I SINCERELY doubt that. They may have changed their minds later (next point), but they were not BSing the Air Force. You really don't want to BS people with guns and bombs. I'd bet they had at least some initial design of this Raptor stage that they showed the Air Force while they were proposing this contract. And most likely, if they did have such a design, it was reusable. These aren't all certainties, but they do seem likely to me. And it is a fact that the contract contained such language. Anyone want to disagree with me here?
4) Musk tweeted: "Really tempting to redesign upper stage for return too (Falcon Heavy has enough power), but prob best to stay focused on the Mars rocket" in July of 2016. That's less than a year ago, and BEFORE their 2016 on-pad explosion. Skipping straight to the "Mars rocket" is pretty ambitious even before that significant setback.
5) Musk tweeted in March that "Considering trying to bring upper stage back on Falcon Heavy demo flight for full reusability. Odds of success low, but maybe worth a shot."
This is a change back from 8 months prior. There are more comments that suggest that SpaceX is serious about this and hope for success in this aspect sometime next year. It's quite possible they had started preparing for a reusable stage prior, perhaps even finalizing designs and starting fabrication only for it to be put on hold as Musk ups the ante to full scale ITS. Then, the failure happened, IAC happened, SpaceX was able to do 1st stage reuse and now are reviving this second stage reuse effort (quite possibly based on Raptor). This is significant. If SpaceX thinks they can attempt reuse of the upper stage by the end of summer or fall, that means they're not starting from scratch but are picking up previous efforts. I mean, unless you think they believe they can go from expendable upper stage to reusable upper stage in just 5 months with no previous work...
6) The IAC timeline already shows "Spaceship testing" in 2018. So suggesting a much smaller version could be ready for flight using the subscale engine they've already tested is keeping with this timeline. Only, it could be done orbitally much sooner since under the assumptions in this thread, it'd be launched on Falcon Heavy, essentially the reusable upper stage but with a place for crew and/or cargo (or simply stretched for propellant, if it's a tanker variant).
7) Elon Musk announces a more economic update to ITS that can be done without causing the company to go bankrupt. This being done at basically the same time that Musk announced the INAUGURAL Falcon Heavy will attempt upper stage reuse, expecting upper stage reuse to be effective by sometime next year.

This all points to one possible way Musk could convince himself that a crewed landing by 2020 is actually possible, though far from likely due to all the things that have to work perfectly for that date to be met.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: How SpaceX may get crew to Mars by 2020.
« Reply #79 on: 04/28/2017 02:20 am »
Maybe someone has already stated this, but I don't think SpaceX wants to send humans to Mars by 2020.  That would be a gigantic distraction to create a sub-optimal effort that if anything would hobble their better Mars plans.

Of course they don't want to do something senseless like that. But a few trucks full of money would make it worth the effort. Plus they could even learn something on the way.

Just like throwing money at the SLS won't speed it up much at this point, I don't think throwing money at SpaceX could speed up their ITS plans much.  Kind for the same reasons 9 women can't make a baby in one month...
SpaceX was already planning ITS spaceship flight testing next year. The difference of this thread is it'd be much smaller and launched on a rocket that's already built and partially acceptance tested in McGregor as we speak.

You CAN speed up the time it takes to give birth to a baby if you're willing to give birth to a smaller baby (and if some of those 9 women are neonatal nurses and doctors).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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