Here's some evidence:QuoteTrump, though, said he wanted a faster timeline. “Well, we want to try and do it during my first term or, at worst, during my second term,” he said. “So we’ll have to speed that up a little bit, okay?”He reiterated an accelerated timeframe later in the discussion. “I’m very proud that I just signed a bill committing NASA to the aim of sending America astronauts to Mars,” he said, again referring to the authorization act. “So we’ll do that. I think we’ll do it a lot sooner than we’re even thinking.”- See more at: http://spacenews.com/trumps-exuberance-for-mars-faces-technical-and-fiscal-challenges/#sthash.TeuqqfLY.dpuf
Trump, though, said he wanted a faster timeline. “Well, we want to try and do it during my first term or, at worst, during my second term,” he said. “So we’ll have to speed that up a little bit, okay?”He reiterated an accelerated timeframe later in the discussion. “I’m very proud that I just signed a bill committing NASA to the aim of sending America astronauts to Mars,” he said, again referring to the authorization act. “So we’ll do that. I think we’ll do it a lot sooner than we’re even thinking.”- See more at: http://spacenews.com/trumps-exuberance-for-mars-faces-technical-and-fiscal-challenges/#sthash.TeuqqfLY.dpuf
I have to laugh, several weeks ago, I was ban from the forum for "fake news". I actually just make a prediction, base on Trump desire to show USA is great, that he will order to go to Mars, not to Moon. Now it is official and SpaceX is the way to go.For 2-3 billion a year, SpaceX will deliver us to Mars probably during the second term of Trump's presidency.
The best you could hope for by 2020 would be a flyby with a minimal crew. And that would still be super damn hard.
We know inaugural launch of Falcon Heavy is supposed to be with a reusable upper stage. Previous concept videos showed a VTVL upper stage that could basically function as a Mars lander, especially if it used subscale Raptors like the one SpaceX has been testing. Basically, we might see a prototype mini-BFS launch THIS YEAR.With refueling, it could possibly be sent to Mars next year with some ground equipment for mining water and producing power. A big advantage of the mini-BFS concept is it means you only need a tenth as much power and water.Crew launch in 2018.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/25/2017 01:09 amHere's some evidence:QuoteTrump, though, said he wanted a faster timeline. “Well, we want to try and do it during my first term or, at worst, during my second term,” he said. “So we’ll have to speed that up a little bit, okay?”He reiterated an accelerated timeframe later in the discussion. “I’m very proud that I just signed a bill committing NASA to the aim of sending America astronauts to Mars,” he said, again referring to the authorization act. “So we’ll do that. I think we’ll do it a lot sooner than we’re even thinking.”- See more at: http://spacenews.com/trumps-exuberance-for-mars-faces-technical-and-fiscal-challenges/#sthash.TeuqqfLY.dpufNope. You have three options 1) He got it wrong. 2) He was Incorrectting, 3) he misspoke. You can pick more than one. There is no way that SpaceX or anyone else can get us Mars in three years.
Elon is more willing to take risk than many others in the industry. However, a crewed Red Dragon is simply too risky. SpaceX is making the bet on ITS for crewed missions to Mars (and beyond). They don't want to de-rail ITS by a failed crewed Red Dragon.If the Trump administration came to Elon and asked how to get people on Mars faster, I expect he'd say fund ITS at 1 Billion for 10 years and we'll launch by a crewed 2024.
I think SpaceX has been trying to solve the water mining problem for years. Why does everyone assume SpaceX has no secrets?
If what I'm proposing here is Musk's idea, then the plan IS to get the crew back, but it's possible the return trip might not happen until the next window.With ITS, the plan was to send the propellant plant and robots on a previous uncrewed ITS, then finish any necessary assembly or fix any problems with crew when the crew arrives. This accelerates the timescale, as you don't need to perfect automation in a provable way before sending the ITSes. Proving automation could take a decade or more.
"What the planetary science folks have discovered about Mars is pretty much open source--all people have equal access to the data, and there's no obvious, easy way to get a bunch of water." False. The planetary science folks I've talked to think there are easy methods to get water.Yes there is. We've fairly recently come to the conclusion that virtually the entire surface of Mars is covered by regolith with at least 2% absorbed water, with some sites having far more. SpaceX may have been testing mining robots in simulated Martian conditions.