Author Topic: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches  (Read 13375 times)

Offline jacqmans

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #40 on: 04/07/2017 05:49 PM »
There is an even more important launch scheduled in october 2018... the BepiColombo mission to Mercury.
That has a launch window... so all other payloads have to be scheduled around that.
« Last Edit: 04/07/2017 05:50 PM by jacqmans »

Offline Chasm

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A pretty honest assessment of the situation IMHO. These numbers are rather depressing.


Other than unemployment they are also hard to check. [via the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies]
I tried to get some historical perspective on them but did not really manage to.

There seems to be a correlation of 45% youth unemployment and 40% not finishing school. So how are are the schools developing, is there an upward trend of pupils finishing it?
Looking for data I came about this report.
In 2005 58% of the 25-34 year old had no school diploma. The highest number in the nation, best region is 11% Age group 35-64 has the same number, or in other words 0 improvement. Some regions improved by 25%, the 2nd worst improvement was 12%.
Of those 25-34 year old that finished school 17% went on and finished some form of higher education, again the lowest number in the nation. Highest was 51%.
So at least things are getting better even if there is still a long way go.

Access to potable water for only 15% is really low. I guess that is using the EU definition, requiring treatment and continuous quality control. Where do the others get their water from. Local wells? Whats the quality of that water.

As far as food prices France subsidizes some basic foods in overseas departments.  What are the rules in Guiana, and how did this skew the statistics.


What were the concessions in past strikes. What did and did not happen. I guess my Google skills are not as good as I thought, I found nothing on that.
« Last Edit: 04/08/2017 07:46 AM by jacqmans »

Offline Chasm

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #42 on: 04/08/2017 03:43 PM »
Stratfor released an 1600 word analysis yesterday. [link]

A lot of background on the history and how the current situation developed. As far as contents overlap I did not see contradictions to what has been in news and magazine articles.

It says that an agreement has been reached on the 6th and that it is closer to the €1B the government offered than the €2.5B the protesters wanted.

The analysis continues with an outlook into the future and a few what ifs.



Looks like Arianespace will be back to normal operations soon enough.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #43 on: 04/11/2017 10:02 AM »
Talk of a settlement seems premature, surely the French presidential election is going to delay any real progress for a while now?

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 5m5 minutes ago

Europe's spaceport: 3 wks into general strike, roadblocks still up. No improvement in view; Fr presidential elections April 23/May 7.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/851735434388529152

Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes 2m2 minutes ago

Europe's spaceport: Fr president Hollande calls for roadblock's end; no effect. Some say he shld travel to Fr Guiana, make symbolic gesture.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/851736369718329344

Offline Archibald

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #44 on: 04/11/2017 04:52 PM »
Without going political, François Hollande is currently a lame duck President (if I was snarky, I would say he was lame duck from day one, but well  ::) )   
More seriously, the ongoing government will remain in place until early May and still work for a solution to be found.

The coming presidential election will surely make matter hard, even more since round one results (april 23) might bring an enormous surprise.
« Last Edit: 04/11/2017 04:54 PM by Archibald »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #45 on: 04/11/2017 07:05 PM »
Protest movement calls for a complete shutdown of French Guiana from Monday:

http://www.france24.com/en/20170410-activists-behind-french-guiana-unrest-call-shutdown-overseas-territory


Offline Archibald

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Offline redliox

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #47 on: 04/11/2017 08:38 PM »
I sincerely hope France can settle its problems with French Guyana and I would never belittle the issues the people have there....

....but, ultimately, this is one example of why depending on international partners can be a liability.  Suppose, in a worst case scenario (but highly unlikely), F. Guyana fully revolts and in the process destroys the spaceport.  ESA could still manufacture spacecraft, but lack a launch site if not the means to launch said spacecraft.  ESA would find itself momentarily at the mercy of either Russia or America.  This could potentially be a burden to (as an example) America if a project akin to ISS (Deep Space Gateway anyone?) required a few sizable components to launch out of their spaceport (also there's the Webb's situation if you think about it).
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Offline Star One

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French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #48 on: 04/12/2017 06:03 AM »
I sincerely hope France can settle its problems with French Guyana and I would never belittle the issues the people have there....

....but, ultimately, this is one example of why depending on international partners can be a liability.  Suppose, in a worst case scenario (but highly unlikely), F. Guyana fully revolts and in the process destroys the spaceport.  ESA could still manufacture spacecraft, but lack a launch site if not the means to launch said spacecraft.  ESA would find itself momentarily at the mercy of either Russia or America.  This could potentially be a burden to (as an example) America if a project akin to ISS (Deep Space Gateway anyone?) required a few sizable components to launch out of their spaceport (also there's the Webb's situation if you think about it).

You talk of not belittling the issues of the people there, and then appear to do the reverse in your second paragraph by making insensitive remarks by talking as if the local people might turn into some savage mob bent on destruction.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2017 06:55 AM by Star One »

Offline Archibald

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #49 on: 04/12/2017 10:02 AM »
I sincerely hope France can settle its problems with French Guyana and I would never belittle the issues the people have there....

....but, ultimately, this is one example of why depending on international partners can be a liability.  Suppose, in a worst case scenario (but highly unlikely), F. Guyana fully revolts and in the process destroys the spaceport.  ESA could still manufacture spacecraft, but lack a launch site if not the means to launch said spacecraft.  ESA would find itself momentarily at the mercy of either Russia or America.  This could potentially be a burden to (as an example) America if a project akin to ISS (Deep Space Gateway anyone?) required a few sizable components to launch out of their spaceport (also there's the Webb's situation if you think about it).

You talk of not belittling the issues of the people there, and then appear to do the reverse in your second paragraph by making insensitive remarks by talking as if the local people might turn into some savage mob bent on destruction.

Seconded. The previous post is completely over the top. French Guyana people are not that stupid, and by the way, they won't destroy a spaceport with their bare hands. Plus there is the Foreign Legion there, just in case.

Offline pippin

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #50 on: 04/12/2017 11:57 AM »
I sincerely hope France can settle its problems with French Guyana and I would never belittle the issues the people have there....

....but, ultimately, this is one example of why depending on international partners can be a liability.  Suppose, in a worst case scenario (but highly unlikely), F. Guyana fully revolts and in the process destroys the spaceport.  ESA could still manufacture spacecraft, but lack a launch site if not the means to launch said spacecraft.  ESA would find itself momentarily at the mercy of either Russia or America.  This could potentially be a burden to (as an example) America if a project akin to ISS (Deep Space Gateway anyone?) required a few sizable components to launch out of their spaceport (also there's the Webb's situation if you think about it).
Well, in the unlikely event of California seceding the US amidst growing disagreement with the rest of the county WRT general policy directions the US would be a pretty unreliable partner, too.

You can always make up catastrophic scenarios if you want to.

Offline Welsh Dragon

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #51 on: 04/12/2017 01:55 PM »


....but, ultimately, this is one example of why depending on international partners can be a liability. 
You do realise no 'international partners' are involved in this dispute? French Guyana is part of France. Not a different county.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #52 on: 04/14/2017 12:09 PM »
Quote
@Arianespace letter to Fr Guiana politicians asking that 3+ wks of roadblocks be ended was badly received. Traffic open only till Monday.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852841297551532032

Quote
Europe's spaceport: Given Guiana strike, Arianespace return to ops before early May looks unlikely, & even that is optimistic at this stage.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852842857559990272
« Last Edit: 04/14/2017 12:10 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline ZachS09

It's been 25 days since the strike started.

I'm guessing that the roadblocks will not go away for another month if this keeps up.
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Offline kch

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #54 on: 04/14/2017 10:01 PM »
Quote
@Arianespace letter to Fr Guiana politicians asking that 3+ wks of roadblocks be ended was badly received. Traffic open only till Monday.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852841297551532032

Quote
Europe's spaceport: Given Guiana strike, Arianespace return to ops before early May looks unlikely, & even that is optimistic at this stage.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852842857559990272

Might this be a good time for ESA to start looking around for a less-unfriendly location for their next spaceport?  Looks like this one's become unreliable (to the point of needing a backup, at least).  :(

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #55 on: 04/15/2017 01:27 AM »
For years there is an agreement between Arianespace and MHI or ESA and JAXA, that Ariane 5 and H2 serve as backup for the other launcher when one gets grounded.
France Guiana is the best location for European orbital launch site. Unfortunately main land Europe is situated very unfavorably for orbital launches. I think the second best location is Assertion island.  But relocating the launchsite will require a multi-billion Euro investment.

The problem is, that soon there will be elections in France. The current government doesn't want their actions in France Guiana, to couse negative effects on the elections.
I think other ESA memberstates have to urge France that CSG must become available soon. Because this strike negatively effects the reputation of Arianespace and ESA.
My perception is, that a strike in the European part of France, that would have such an effect on infrastructure and a industry, would have been ended with force, within a couple of weeks.

My oppinion is, that when the strice hasn't ended by may, France must end it with force. And no money what so ever sould go to France Guiana.
I think the state government have made a very generous offer to it's France Guianese citicens. If I'm not mistaken, the France economy and state finance aren't very prosperous at this moment. Offering to invest a additional billion Euro in France Guiana is a large commitment.
The concerns that the France Guianese have, are clear. The France government is willing to invest and negotiate. But you can't properly negotiate when one party is threatened / is prohibited from operating.
(edited because of the extreme metaphor, I apologize to the people that were offended). 

The strike must end! And Arianespace should be able to launch the 3 weeks delayed Ariane 5. The parties can evaluate the offer and negotiate with the France government, on equal terms. They can delay the schedule again when they don't like the offer and the outcome of the negotiations.
But when the strike continues now, the peoplle of France Guiana show they aren't willing to negotiate. Their only purpose is to cause havoc. The France government should restore the order in that case.

I think the best results are accomplished when more work is created in France Guiana. Possibly it could help the France Guiana when a bit more of it's land could be developed. For example the CSG grounds could be put to use for wood production. Between launches the forest could be cut and new trees could be planted by local people. With good managment the forests can be maintained while a lot of highly required wood is produced. Just as in Canada, and parts of Europe.
« Last Edit: 04/15/2017 01:17 PM by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline Archibald

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #56 on: 04/15/2017 06:20 AM »
Quote
@Arianespace letter to Fr Guiana politicians asking that 3+ wks of roadblocks be ended was badly received. Traffic open only till Monday.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852841297551532032

Quote
Europe's spaceport: Given Guiana strike, Arianespace return to ops before early May looks unlikely, & even that is optimistic at this stage.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/852842857559990272

Might this be a good time for ESA to start looking around for a less-unfriendly location for their next spaceport?  Looks like this one's become unreliable (to the point of needing a backup, at least).  :(


This is ridiculous. There wasn't a single problem in Kourou over the last four decades and all of sudden, because of a strike, we should have another launch pad ? really ? this isn't a civil war, damn it. They won't make secession anytime soon.
« Last Edit: 04/15/2017 06:20 AM by Archibald »

Offline osiossim

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #57 on: 04/15/2017 07:03 AM »
"...this strike negatively effects the reputation of Arianespace and ESA..."

What about the people there? I have just came back from F. Guiana, local people have nothing to do, no business, no agriculture, no development, no future. Everything is designed for Arianespace and ESA already. Shops are owned and operated by Chinese. Local people sit infront of their houses and wait for nothing.

"..when the strice hasn't ended by may, France must end it with force. And no money what so ever sould go to France Guiana..."

There are massive amount of French military presence, weaponry and boots on ground at French Guiana territory. The mainland France is already investing heavily on military infrastructure, only. But using force against local people, who ask for better education, health, social life and sustainable jobs will definitely trigger much larger scale riot on other French overseas departments as well.

"...Offering to invest a additional billion Euro in France Guiana is a large commitment..."

Rather than roads, French Hotels for launch customers, presence of French goods in Carrefour, military presence and spaceport, there is barely anything credible for normal people. EU is spending money on government buildings and infrastructures, only.

"...The France government is willing to invest and negotiate. But you can't propperly negotiate when one party has a nife placed on his throat..."

France and Arianespace is benefitting from French Guiana since the last 50 years, without returning anything useful for local citizens. This is one sided relationship.

Even the knife is a metaphor on your statement, I have not seen anything like that in Guiana. People have already accepted and somehow benefitted French presence in this territory, but gains much much less than they deserve and they inherit nothing for their future generations from France.

"...I think the best results are accomplished when more work is created in France Guiana..."

I agree with that but it is not as simple as we can type here. Creating jobs requires investment. Invesment needs government subsidy. But French government subsidies the launch campaigns only, maybe a bit of other French companies like Carrefour, Renault, Citroen, Peugeot and Leclerc. But these companies employ white Europeans in general. The only local people I have seen at Arianespace facilities were guards at gate and cooks at the restaurant.

To employ local people, goverment shall provide better education, healtcare and living conditions and should offer a future for the .

The life at French Guiana is at the coast line only. The forest is very thick and it is protected together with all the animals within. You cannot create an economy by cutting the trees to create better ife to local people.   

Immigration is very intense at French Guiana. As the local economy is based on Euro currency while the country is in South America, the people from Brazil, Surinam, Guiana, Haiti, Colombia and Venezuela are coming to French Guiana. They generally work without insurance at local shops, bars and at illegal mines. And they live at flavas or slums in terrible conditions.

And this is happening at European Space Agency's or one European nation's backyard, where our glory civilisation reach the skies but ignore human beings.

Whose knife at whose neck now?
« Last Edit: 04/15/2017 07:07 AM by osiossim »

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #58 on: 04/15/2017 08:25 AM »
I heavily agree with the above.

I might add that France has a relatively good exchanges with its other former colonial territories (called Dom-Tom) such as Guadeloupe and Martinique, which are carribean islands not far from Guyana. But the mass tourism that is affordable and largely publicized in Guadeloupe or Martinique is not currently available in Guyana. This region could really benefit from other investments that space, because it has a huge potential for tourism. Properly developped, it has nearly all the right ingredients: coastline with carribean conditions, amazonian-type rivers, the primal forest with some of the most unknown territories ever, exotic species... All of this with rockets nearby!

What this region lacks is respect and consideration IMO. For years it has solely been a place where engineers and white european techs are send to launch rockets.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: French Guyana protests - discussion and impact on launches
« Reply #59 on: 04/15/2017 10:33 AM »
Might this be a good time for ESA to start looking around for a less-unfriendly location for their next spaceport?  Looks like this one's become unreliable (to the point of needing a backup, at least).  :(

Maybe Arianespace needs to dust off the Australian proposal from the late 1970s to have the launch site near Darwin. :-) Political stability was cited as one of the advantages, but we lost out since French Guyana is closer to France.

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