Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2017?

None, all the landings so far were flukes (or fakes)
0 (0%)
1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
2 (1.2%)
4
6 (3.6%)
5
1 (0.6%)
6
11 (6.5%)
7
15 (8.9%)
8
17 (10.1%)
9
17 (10.1%)
10
19 (11.2%)
11
9 (5.3%)
12
19 (11.2%)
13
11 (6.5%)
14
11 (6.5%)
15
4 (2.4%)
16
7 (4.1%)
17
4 (2.4%)
18
4 (2.4%)
19
1 (0.6%)
20 or more
11 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 169

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 07:16 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?  (Read 5044 times)

Offline Lar

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This is a companion poll to the number of flights poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0
Consult that poll for history, manifest predictions, etc....

For the purposes of this poll an "intact core returned" or "successfully landed first stage" means that the stage returned from boost and executed a landing in which it did not topple over, blow up, strike on impact, or disintegrate. There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest. If it immediately topples after that, or is damaged in handling it still counts.  If SpaceX reuses a stage and lands it again, each successful landing of the stage counts as a returned core.

The landing can be RTLS or on an ASDS or some as yet unspecified thing (I'll modify this if that happens)

Note that a Falcon Heavy has 3 cores. It's possible that 0, 1, 2, or 3 could be returned successfully. it's possible that some do a RTLS and some land on an ASDS. Each core that landed successfully counts as one core. Each core expended, whether by choice, or by accident, or that fails to remain upright and stationary long enough to get a picture, counts as zero.

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. That is the following things don't count: a launch abort test, a first stage only launch test, a test at Spaceport America if that comes to pass...  the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital.  Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter. The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Hopefully that makes things clear. You may not agree with my definitions, or wish they were different but these are the ones being used so take that into account. These are the same definitions as last year.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 12:24 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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I went 16 launches.

They demonstrated cadence at the Cape before the mishap, if they can quickly get back to that cadence, and propagate that to Vandy, 16 won't be hard at all... as long as there isn't another mishap.  Of that I think two will be FH.  So that's 14+6 first stages, and I think 80% recovery of those is not unreasonable, so I went 16 recovered stages too.

16 stages recovered...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Barrie

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10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.

I agree with your reasons for adjustment but I have different numbers. I think 19 cores (15 launches including two FH). Don't see any performance sacrifice being necessary with FH but central core may be tricky so I'll say 5 out of 6 cores recovered. For the other 13 cores I'd say 3 lost for performance and 3 due to mishaps (probably at least one re-used core in there) so that's 7 more recovered for a total of 12.

Offline ZachS09

7 out of 10 is a good majority for my predictions, so I went with 7 successful landings and 3 RUDs; one of the RUDs might be one of the Falcon Heavy cores on its demo flight. I'm guessing one of the boosters could have an issue while the other booster and the central core make it in one piece each.
"Falcon 9 has landed. Landing operators, move into Procedure 11.100 on Recovery Net."

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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I said 13 launches including FH, so 15 cores, and giving a bit better than 50/50 success rate, that is 8 landings that the refurbishment team  ::) get to practice on...
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Offline Ixian77

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10 out of 17 for me, no research involved..............

Offline hop

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Voted 10 of 12. I was surprised both by the number of attempts and successes in 2016, don't expect FH to fly in 2017.

Offline vapour_nudge

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9 from 14

Offline deadman719

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8 out of 12.

I think sea conditions could result in a couple of landings being water landings. A couple of others may touch down a little too fast/hard.

Rob
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 08:55 PM by deadman719 »

Offline Kaputnik

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9 landings from 11 launched cores. I think FH won't fly next year.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline pippin

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I went with 13 flights, one of them an FH that makes 15 cores.
I don't see them have any failures because they're probably going to be more careful in 2017, can't really afford to lose another mission.

But I also don't see them bring home all cores even though the landing looked good recently so 11 shall be the number.

Offline Comga

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Comga

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Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
Row would be launches
Columns would be landings
(Some combinations wouldn't make sense, but people picked invalid combos on the landing bingo which didn't make sense, either.)
Just a thought.

Edit: It doesn't appear that any two people have made the same two choices.  Like the bingo game.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 06:03 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline MikeAtkinson

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25 F9 + 2 FH = 29 cores - 1 failure = 28 cores recovered.

Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 05:41 PM by MikeAtkinson »

Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)

LOL, I'm going back to 1st grade :) :o

I guessed only 8 launches in '17 with no falcon heavy.  6 successful landings.  1 being the relaunched booster.

Offline MP99

I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin

Offline Lar

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I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin

Quote
The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Fixed
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline whitelancer64

"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Offline pikawaka

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Voted for 16. In the number of launches poll, I said there would be 17 launches this year, with 1 Falcon Heavy flight. So 16 cores recovered out of 20. 3 are lost on heavy GTO missions similar to SES-9. Falcon Heavy's core is intentionally expended to demonstrate performance necessary for Red Dragon missions.

Offline Billium

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I voted 18 launches in 2017, so I'm going to guess 50% stick the landing. Also it is an odd number, and we need more of those in these polls.

Offline AndrewM

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13, I voted for 15 launches but I expect a few to either not attempt recovery or not land successfully. I also think 2 of 3 of the 1st FH stages will safely land.

Offline John Alan

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I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)

I went with 20+ landings in this poll...
« Last Edit: 12/20/2016 08:12 PM by John Alan »

Offline bolun

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12 recoveries from 13 launches (1st FH will be "all expendable").

Offline Mader Levap

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P Potential for relaunches additionally complicates things.

I voted 14 for launches in general and no FH. With assumption that 2/3 of landings will be successful, it gives, rounding up, 10. Four will either crash/fall/topple on barge or wont be tried in first place for whatever reason (weather, launch of fully expendable F9 etc).
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline deltaV

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.

Offline Lar

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.

I suppose someone could start that one, but it seems somehow... easier. :)  Put your thinking caps on and quit whining :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline zappatosin

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8 out of 10 recoveries succeed.

I'm optimistic about the core of their business model. :)

It's the pad and range limitations that bring my launch expectations down to 11 for 2017.

Offline Mark S

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In the other (number of launches) poll, I voted 11 launches, and I don't expect one of them to be FH (it's just not a priority). I assume a good recovery rate, and assume that some high performance launches will not even attempt to recover the first stage.

Therefore, I voted eight first stages will be successfully recovered this year. I hope I'm not being overly optimistic again. :(

Cheers!

Online llanitedave

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I voted 10 and I hope that's pessimistic.  If not, what do I win?
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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The count is now 1 with a successful launch and landing of the first Iridium sat set. A note is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Next up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My vote was 20 or more launches and landings this year with nearly an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.

Offline deltaV

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I voted 17 launches (in the other thread) and 13 core recoveries.

Offline Comga

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Despite the early success, voting has slowed or stopped.
The best fit value actually fell over time from 10.5 to 9.5.
That's a pretty big fraction of the bet fit number of launches of 13.5.  As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.
Variance actually came down in the end, despite the success last Saturday.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sdsds

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As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.

And/or we think one launch will account for three returned cores.
-- sdsds --

Offline PerW

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I voted 13 launches in 2017, and guess 11 successful landed cores.
They made it look easy on the 14th January, and the pictures are magic! (a given picture to my desktop background)

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