Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 32908 times)

Offline MrHollifield

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #40 on: 12/19/2016 04:38 PM »
Being wildly optimistic, I voted 21-25. I based that on:
16 launches (4 per quarter) from 39A/40.
6 launches from Vandy (assuming no Iridium payload backlogs).
3 launches from 39A (FH, CRS, DM1) after LC40 is back in service.

They've hit the 4/quarter tempo each of the last 2 years. If the F9 Block 5 design freezes about the time LC40 comes back on line, I think they can sustain that tempo off their primary East Coast pad. The question will be if the factory can keep up with that rate plus 9 or 10 launches off the other pads.

Offline mwfair

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #41 on: 12/19/2016 04:52 PM »
I'm guessing the cadence will average 3 weeks.
Mike Fair

Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #42 on: 12/19/2016 05:07 PM »
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

They were on a pace to make 18 last year and I think I'll stick with that since they still have to prove FH and 39A and get LC40 back on line. Which was about where they were last year come to think about it.
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline Remes

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #43 on: 12/19/2016 05:52 PM »
9

50% up compared to this year is an ambitous and excellent growth rate. (If they push harder I would be afraid of a lom, which would halt the launch counter for the remaining year).

Still the same. The only thing that differs is, that I'm sure they are going to try to raise the launch rate dramatically, and they will again encounter a loss of mission. I think chances are good, that the FH will be not within the 9 for this year (more urgent work on crewed flight).

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #44 on: 12/19/2016 06:00 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #45 on: 12/19/2016 06:08 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

Online savuporo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #46 on: 12/19/2016 07:18 PM »
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

One a week has been done before

I voted two - I think they have some problems to work through
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #47 on: 12/19/2016 07:30 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 07:31 PM by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #48 on: 12/20/2016 05:32 PM »

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.

I have a degree in Mathematics and I couldn't do simple math in my head until I took up league darts. Now I can do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division in my head even when dead drunk!
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline Billium

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #49 on: 12/20/2016 06:06 PM »
After being disappointed with mishaps in 2015 & 2016 I voted 2017 once again on the presumption of no mishap, I hope that isn't bad luck. They have no shortage of payloads, and I think they can build at least 2 cores/month, plus they might reuse some, so I don't think those are constraints. I believe they will have 2 pads to start 2017 and the 3rd will come back online mid 2017. I think the difficulty will be to process missions, I don't know if they have the people to process 2 missions at once at different pads. In theory they should be able to do 1/month/pad (the have shown that before) which would bring it to 24 (not enough missions at Vandy for 12 months worth, but I added some to Florida for 2nd pad). I scaled it back and voted 18 for scheduling conflicts, short term payload issues, weather, space is hard ect. They really need to come through this year, or they will loose a lot of business. I don't think we will see the Heavy this year, disappointed about that because I think that means mars slips to 2020 instead of 2018. If they get through this year without a mishap, and 12+ launches I will be happy.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #50 on: 12/20/2016 06:29 PM »
I'm guessing 11, higher than I have guessed in previous years.
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #51 on: 12/20/2016 06:32 PM »
I went with 15 as I voted 12 last year and feel they could have gotten it had the Amos-6 incident not occurred. They also should have 3 pads operational in 2017 unless something significant delays Pad 40.

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #52 on: 12/20/2016 08:03 PM »
I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)

Offline bolun

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #53 on: 12/20/2016 08:21 PM »
I'm going with 13 (1FH included).  ;)

Offline PahTo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #54 on: 12/20/2016 08:25 PM »

Going with 12 (includes one FH attempt).  Hope it is more, but spaceflight is difficult.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #55 on: 12/21/2016 05:01 AM »
First time poll participant, so forgive me if that makes me overly optimistic.

Their launch cadence was already hitting around 1.5 launches a month before Amos happened.

Currently it seems they might hit the ground running with 2 launches in January. Even if they only average 1.5 launches a month for the first 6 months and gradually ramp the cadence up to 2/month in the second half of the year, that will already take them to 9+12=21 launches in 2017.

Once they have 3 pads in operation, we might even see the odd month with 3 launches, late in the year.

So I'm going with 24 launches for the year. All assuming no failures that halt operations of course.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2016 11:43 AM by M.E.T. »

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #56 on: 12/21/2016 09:47 AM »
Nine, one more than last year.
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Online Bynaus

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #57 on: 12/21/2016 11:01 AM »
I am going with 13. One per month and a bit more. I think it's doable, but still challenging. If that works out without larger hickups, I am confident to go for >20 in 2018.

But why does reading the original post of this thread remind me of this xkcd comic? ;)

Offline Mark S

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #58 on: 12/21/2016 02:33 PM »
I was going to vote for 10, but then I figured what the heck. Let's turn it all the way to 11. (Yay for odd numbers!)

I voted 12 last year, which I thought was conservative, but turned out to be too high. So I will continue to lower my expectations until SpX proves otherwise.

Offline Mike Jones

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #59 on: 12/22/2016 12:32 PM »
7 launches until mid 2017 including  another  failure grounding Falcon 9 for the rest of the year and delaying FHeavy and crew Dragon by almost 2 years.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2016 04:29 PM by Mike Jones »

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