Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 41477 times)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #240 on: 10/09/2017 08:29 PM »
Also, with 14 launches so far this year, 151 of 320 votes (47%) are now underestimates.
The guesses of 145 of those 320 (45%) are for at least one more
The remaining 24 guessed that SpaceX would only get this far by the end of the year, still 83 days away
Given that the poll is about launches, not launch successes, it is reasonable to conclude that the NSF crowd as a whole was overly pessimistic about SpaceX in 2017. 
Who would have thought?
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #241 on: 10/09/2017 08:38 PM »
After how many years in a row of overoptimistic averages, who can blame us for undershooting.

I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll, the values 0-40 (41 choices) plus "over 40"
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Port

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #242 on: 10/09/2017 08:51 PM »
well the median is 14 and the mean 14,4 pm 4,3 (when averaging the 21+ options out), i'd call that not too bad for "guessing"

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #243 on: 10/09/2017 09:28 PM »
well the median is 14 and the mean 14,4 pm 4,3 (when averaging the 21+ options out), i'd call that not too bad for "guessing"
If you posted that on 31 December (and SpaceX had achieved just 14 launches) I'd give you more credence than if you posted it today. We have more launches coming.
« Last Edit: 10/09/2017 09:29 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Port

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #244 on: 10/09/2017 09:34 PM »
they will have no more than 4 launches, which is within standard deviation ;) (don't take this too serious)

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #245 on: 10/09/2017 09:39 PM »
I'm glad to have been proven wrong and pessimistic :) I voted for 6 flights :D

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #246 on: 10/09/2017 09:55 PM »
they will have no more than 4 launches, which is within standard deviation ;) (don't take this too serious)
Are you new around here or something? LOL
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #247 on: 10/09/2017 10:07 PM »
I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll,
This is the correct number  ;)

Currently I expect a total of 20 this year, assuming current rates are maintained, which puts my original guess of 21-25 as slightly optimistic.

Offline mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #248 on: 10/10/2017 07:47 AM »
After how many years in a row of overoptimistic averages, who can blame us for undershooting.

I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll, the values 0-40 (41 choices) plus "over 40"

I'm looking forward to the year in which you have ranges at the lower end.  ;)
If all goes well, 2018 may be the last year in which you don't...

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #249 on: 10/11/2017 02:43 PM »
So, will SpaceX beat Russia to have the most launches in 2017?

20 launches for SpaceX (21 with FH?) seems to be the upper limit. The Russian launch manifest has a possible 24 launches for the year, but only 13 have already occurred (2 more coming shortly and another at the end of the month). Looks like it could be close.

Edit: In a similar comparative vein, I wonder when Falcon 9 will pass Atlas V in lifetime launches. If SpaceX is able to finish with 20 launches this year and 30 next year, then they'd be on track to pass Atlas 5 sometime in 2019. Crazy!
« Last Edit: 10/11/2017 11:56 PM by rockets4life97 »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #250 on: 10/12/2017 12:19 AM »
For those interested in # launches per country or launcher this is the site that gives the info in a nice visible graphic.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2017.htm Plus it has been updated already with the last F9 launch that just happened just barely an hour ago. Meaning the data is almost always up to date.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #251 on: 10/12/2017 09:01 PM »

Woohoo, I finally underestimated SpaceX. Keep em coming.

After today's success, F9's failure rate has fallen below the point where a new mishap would return it to Amos VI levels. With the final upgrade coming up, let's hope it was all just growing pains.

Offline lele

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #252 on: 10/12/2017 09:23 PM »
I (re)found a relevant Elon quote from 2011:

Quote
Twenty launches a year, is not a crazy number at all. We expect that to occur without any miracles.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #253 on: 10/15/2017 12:15 AM »
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.

Online AbuSimbel

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #254 on: 10/15/2017 09:44 AM »
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.
They also have that mysterious mission up their sleeve, don't forget  ;D
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #255 on: 10/16/2017 10:35 PM »
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.
They also have that mysterious mission up their sleeve, don't forget  ;D
The mystery launch has been confirmed with a launch date of the 15th. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.msg1738338#msg1738338

So the remainder of 2017:
#16 Koreasat
#17 ZUMA
#18 CRS
#19 Irridium
#20 ?Hispasat
#21 ?FH

So at least 19 but a possible 21 8)

BTW my guess was 21.

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #256 on: 10/17/2017 03:37 PM »
And my guess was 19 (one of nine to pick that number)...  :D

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #257 on: 10/19/2017 02:24 PM »
We are going to need a poll for the number of re-used booster flights for 2018. It seems more than possible that half the flights next year will be on re-used boosters. Getting CRS and Iridium flights all on re-used would be a major score for SpaceX. Especially since the first multiple re-use (3,4,5 flights of the same booster) will probably all come with LEO flights.

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #258 on: 10/19/2017 02:33 PM »
Suggest two polls on topic for 2018...

1) number of SpaceX launches in 2018...
 (already discussed (1-35), Lar said he would start it later (in Dec?))

2) percentage of 2018 flights that go on 'flight proven" cores...
(should discuss block size... 5% blocks?... 0.5.10,15,) or what makes sense)

To me, this makes the most sense... as 2 relates to 1 in many ways...  :)
« Last Edit: 10/19/2017 02:37 PM by John Alan »

Online Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #259 on: 10/19/2017 08:13 PM »
.....
2) percentage of 2018 flights that go on 'flight proven" cores...
(should discuss block size... 5% blocks?... 0.5.10,15,) or what makes sense)

To me, this makes the most sense... as 2 relates to 1 in many ways...  :)

I would prefer counting number of flights of used 1st stages.

Tags: range