Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 17639 times)

Offline kch

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1729
  • Liked: 460
  • Likes Given: 8230
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #140 on: 05/05/2017 06:40 PM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

"... goes ding when there's stuff"?  ;)

Online acsawdey

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 254
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #141 on: 05/05/2017 06:44 PM »
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived

Online mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #142 on: 05/07/2017 07:35 AM »
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived

I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 285
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #143 on: 05/07/2017 08:43 AM »
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

1. 39A looks to be holding up well. This is probably #1.
2. ULA isn't launching again until August, so probably not much competition for the range.
3. 3 stages are at the Cape, 1 is at McGregor, and 1 was seen on the production floor more than a week ago. Looks to be fine.
4. Nothing to add
5. No info as far as I know
6. See 3.
7/8. The unknown.

Guess, we'll see. I'd still count it as a remarkable success if one of the launches is pushed to July 1/2/3.

Offline Barrie

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 349
  • Planets are a waste of space
  • Liked: 159
  • Likes Given: 1895
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #144 on: 05/07/2017 09:25 AM »
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

fairing production rate?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2536
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 1623
  • Likes Given: 590
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #145 on: 05/07/2017 11:51 AM »
fairing production rate?

Good thought. But as this has been a known potential issue for some time (hence part of the reason to look at fairing recovery) I'd hope SpaceX used the downtime following September's failure to get ahead on fairing production.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2618
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1044
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #146 on: 05/12/2017 06:30 PM »
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely  possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely.

But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A
CRS: 1 June
Bulgarisat: 15 June
Intelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)

SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 June

So the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.

This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation.

June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9
July 3 more TtD: 12
Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])
Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing
           down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])
Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 +  1 on SLC-4E)
Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)
Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)

My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.

If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.


« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 06:36 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Tags: range