Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 41503 times)

Offline kch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #140 on: 05/05/2017 06:40 PM »
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

"... goes ding when there's stuff"?  ;)

Offline acsawdey

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #141 on: 05/05/2017 06:44 PM »
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived

Offline mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #142 on: 05/07/2017 07:35 AM »
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived

I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #143 on: 05/07/2017 08:43 AM »
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

1. 39A looks to be holding up well. This is probably #1.
2. ULA isn't launching again until August, so probably not much competition for the range.
3. 3 stages are at the Cape, 1 is at McGregor, and 1 was seen on the production floor more than a week ago. Looks to be fine.
4. Nothing to add
5. No info as far as I know
6. See 3.
7/8. The unknown.

Guess, we'll see. I'd still count it as a remarkable success if one of the launches is pushed to July 1/2/3.

Offline Barrie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #144 on: 05/07/2017 09:25 AM »
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

fairing production rate?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #145 on: 05/07/2017 11:51 AM »
fairing production rate?

Good thought. But as this has been a known potential issue for some time (hence part of the reason to look at fairing recovery) I'd hope SpaceX used the downtime following September's failure to get ahead on fairing production.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #146 on: 05/12/2017 06:30 PM »
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely  possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely.

But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A
CRS: 1 June
Bulgarisat: 15 June
Intelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)

SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 June

So the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.

This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation.

June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9
July 3 more TtD: 12
Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])
Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing
           down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])
Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 +  1 on SLC-4E)
Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)
Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)

My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.

If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.


« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 06:36 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #147 on: 06/04/2017 04:23 PM »
We're now at 7 launches after CRS-11. SpaceX should surpass their previous annual record this month, yet we've barely dipped into the low tail end of predictions.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #148 on: 06/04/2017 06:36 PM »
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely  possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely.

But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A
CRS: 1 June
Bulgarisat: 15 June
Intelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)

SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 June

So the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.

This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation.

June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9
July 3 more TtD: 12
Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])
Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing
           down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])
Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 +  1 on SLC-4E)
Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)
Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)

My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.

If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.

What would be the pros and cons of putting both LC39A and LC40 into full operation as soon as LC40 is done, and pushing out the FH refurbishments to LC39A to next year? How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

Would the dent this would make in their backlog be more valuable to them than meeting their self imposed, largely symbolic deadline of flying FH this year?

Could they for example hit between 25-30 launches in 2017 if they had both 39A and 40 operating in tandem for the last 4 months of the year?

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #149 on: 06/04/2017 07:25 PM »
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Recent updates have shown DM-1 moving to 2018. It looks like CRS-13 (was Nov 1) may be moving to 2018 as well. It isn't clear how many payloads we think are flying in 2018 would be ready to fly in the 4th quarter of 2017.

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #150 on: 06/04/2017 08:20 PM »
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Recent updates have shown DM-1 moving to 2018. It looks like CRS-13 (was Nov 1) may be moving to 2018 as well. It isn't clear how many payloads we think are flying in 2018 would be ready to fly in the 4th quarter of 2017.

If payload readiness is the limiting factor, doesn't that mean they're up to speed with their backlog? So they can spend more of their resources on finishing development on Dragon 2, FH, Red Dragon, and eventually ITS, taking new orders as they need money coming in to pay for their efforts towards Mars.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #151 on: 06/04/2017 11:35 PM »
We're now at 7 launches after CRS-11. SpaceX should surpass their previous annual record this month, yet we've barely dipped into the low tail end of predictions.

I predicted 8, I hope I'm wrong :)
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline SweetWater

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #152 on: 06/05/2017 12:03 AM »
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

Let's say SLC-40 is back up at the beginning of September, and let's be optimistic and say that mods and testing for Falcon Heavy take 2 months, with a late November/early December launch. That opens up LC-39A for other launches for the month of December. And even that seems very optimistic.

So far this year, SpaceX is doing what they need to do. They're launching payloads, cutting down on scrubs and schedule slips, developing a steady cadence, and introducing operational reuse of first stages and Dragon capsules. One launch every 2 or 3 weeks without any unforced errors will make for a fantastic year.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #153 on: 06/05/2017 05:05 AM »
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

Let's say SLC-40 is back up at the beginning of September, and let's be optimistic and say that mods and testing for Falcon Heavy take 2 months, with a late November/early December launch. That opens up LC-39A for other launches for the month of December. And even that seems very optimistic.

So far this year, SpaceX is doing what they need to do. They're launching payloads, cutting down on scrubs and schedule slips, developing a steady cadence, and introducing operational reuse of first stages and Dragon capsules. One launch every 2 or 3 weeks without any unforced errors will make for a fantastic year.

My question above was focused on how many more launches they could achieve if they pushed the Falcon Heavy launch to next year instead, meaning they would not have to stand LC39A down this year.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #154 on: 06/05/2017 02:13 PM »
This may give light.

Once LC39A goes into the support/mod/launch mode for FH the pad will at most only launch 3 more times this year. The CCtCAP in flight abort may move to next year. Leaving 2 FH launches only in Oct through Dec timeframe with the pad down from sometime in Aug.  But by the time it goes down it will have been launching at a rate of 2 a month June, July, and at least 1 in Aug. With the 2 FH launches this puts the total of launches for this year from LC39A at 12 with a possible 13.

LC4E will launch about 7 more timers this year for a total of 8 launches.

LC40 starting sometime in Aug or Sept will launch 4 to 5 times this year.

So it is possible for the total this year even with LC40 coming on line mid Sept for the total to be over 20. That is because by mid Aug LC39A will have mostly caught up with all the east coast launches by then and the rate of east coast launches fall off sharply to just a little more than an average of 1 a month off of the combined two pads. While LC4E will be doing an average of 1 per month since June and continuing through to Dec.

The count at the end of Aug should be 14 launches from the combined LC39A, LC4E and a possible launch from LC40.


Online guckyfan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #155 on: 06/05/2017 04:07 PM »
Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

I think they would go into upgrading LC-39A. However I could imagine, if they are able to put up the crew arm quickly or can do it without the crew arm, they would launch the uncrewed Dragon 2, assuming it is ready to fly.

Offline Toast

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #156 on: 06/06/2017 09:29 PM »
I just did a quick trend line to estimate their launch cadence based on their launch history to date. I get an estimated gap between launches in days for the nth launch = 367.23 * n^-0.851 (optimistically, excluding the gap after the CRS-7/AMOS 6) or 322.48 * n^-0.755 (pessimistically, including all data). By these estimates, they'll hit 17-21 launches this year. That looks pretty plausible with their current schedule, since they're aiming for their tenth launch in early July.

Quick summary of data:
YearOptimistic LaunchesEnd of Year CadencePessimistic LaunchesEnd of Year Cadence
201721141718
20183582413
20195553310
2020834447


Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #157 on: 06/06/2017 09:53 PM »
I just did a quick trend line to estimate their launch cadence based on their launch history to date. I get an estimated gap between launches in days for the nth launch = 367.23 * n^-0.851 (optimistically, excluding the gap after the CRS-7/AMOS 6) or 322.48 * n^-0.755 (pessimistically, including all data). By these estimates, they'll hit 17-21 launches this year. That looks pretty plausible with their current schedule, since they're aiming for their tenth launch in early July.

Quick summary of data:
YearOptimistic LaunchesEnd of Year CadencePessimistic LaunchesEnd of Year Cadence
201721141718
20183582413
20195553310
2020834447



What is "end of year cadence" in this table?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Toast

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #158 on: 06/06/2017 09:56 PM »
What is "end of year cadence" in this table?

The gap between flights in days, e.g. at the end of 2018 flights will be an average of 8-13 days apart. Sorry, hard to fit more descriptive headers in BBCode tables.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #159 on: 06/06/2017 10:11 PM »
you can always use notes at the bottom (or force line breaks??)  thanks for putting that table together, helpful!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Tags: range