Author Topic: Predictions 2017  (Read 9638 times)

Online philw1776

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #40 on: 12/19/2016 07:31 PM »
1. Though lots of chatter & under review, SLS & Orion not yet cancelled by 2017 end
2. ARM cancelled
3. FH finally flies!  but in the 2nd half of 2017
4. F9 has no launch (or static test) RUDs + greatly increased launch cadence
5. Recovered coreS make F9 flightS
6. Physics & astrophysics place further constraints on what constitutes Dark Matter; cracks widen in DM theory
7. No readily verifiable demo of any EM drive
8. No SETI signal received
9. BO makes additional flights, but no crewed flights in 2017
10. JWST continues per schedule
11. No exo-moons detected
12. No Google Lunar prize winner
13. No Planet 9 discovery
14. Virgin Galactic makes a powered test flight
15. ITER continues to suck up money
ADDED
16. SpaceX reveals their space suit design

« Last Edit: 12/20/2016 04:23 PM by philw1776 »
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

Online Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #41 on: 12/23/2016 12:54 PM »
US
* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year
* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches
* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year
* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article
* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan
* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development
* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced
* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017
* ULA announces at least one commercial contract

European
* Arianespace have no launch failures
* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed
* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plans


Russia
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2017
* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year
* Proton has no complete failures

China
* China has one launch failure in 2017, without major effect
* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is successful
* The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year
* KZ-11 flies successfully

International
* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully
* The Indian crewed program is formally authorised
* India has more launches than in any previous year, again
* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight
* All VEX launches are successful
* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start
* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attempt

Misc
* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105
* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface
* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern
* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 02:27 PM by Kryten »

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #42 on: 12/23/2016 01:59 PM »
US
* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year
* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches
* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year
* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article
* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan
* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development
* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced
* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017
* ULA announces at least one commercial contract

European
* Arianespace have no launch failures
* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed
* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plans


Russia
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2016
* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year
* Proton has no complete failures

China
* China has one launch failure in 2016, without major effect
* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is succesful
* The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year
* KZ-11 flies successfully

International
* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully
* The Indian crewed program is formally authorised
* India has more launches than in any previous year, again
* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight
* All VEX launches are successful
* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start
* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attempt

Misc
* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105
* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface
* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern
* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Online Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #43 on: 12/23/2016 02:29 PM »
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
Thanks for pointing that out. It always takes me a while to mentally adjust when the year changes.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #44 on: 12/31/2016 12:13 PM »
1.  The FY2017 and FY2018 budgets will be kind to Orion/SLS.

2.  Despite the avowed small-government principles of the Freedom Caucus (which, as far as I can tell, is the nearest thing there is to a successor to the Tea Party), not one Caucus member will question the government's need for Orion/SLS.

3.  Despite the Caucus's pro-private-enterprise stance, not one member will suggest considering a commercially managed alternative to Orion/SLS, if indeed such capability is needed.

4.  Multiple members of the Caucus will be among the loudest supporters of Orion/SLS.

Online MikeAtkinson

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #45 on: 12/31/2016 04:09 PM »
2017 will be the last year before things really start to change in spaceflight. As such it will be much like the last few years, but with hints of what is to come.

There will be more launches than for many years, partly because of SpaceX catching up on their backlog, partly because of more launches from China and India. The launch rate will really take off in 2018, due to the LEO constellations.

There will be a slight shift from GTO to LEO, driven by test launches for the LEO constellations, increased activity at ISS and more Chinese activity in LEO. This will become more pronounced in future years, with the bulk of launches, payloads and tonnage going to LEO. GEO will become relatively less important commercially (even though it will grow in absolute terms).

The number of satellites will grow, driven by cubesats in LEO.  In future years the number of LEO satellites will explode.

Experience with cubesats will encourage some groups to produce more complex smallsats (30-300 kg). The number and variety of organisations (companies, universities, countries) producing satellites will grow.

There will be continued downward price pressure on launch contracts. This will not become acute until 2018 due to the SpaceX backlog. No launch company in the world will make an overall profit, some will make an operating profit (e.g. SpaceX and ULA) but will need more than that to cover expansion and R&D. Profitless growth in the launch business will continue for some years.

There will be a relative shift to in-space elements (satellites, probes, habs, etc.), partly because that is where the profits lie, partly because of availability of cheap launches for a variety of payload classes.

The total space market will continue to grow rapidly, partly due to new services partly due to continued expansion of existing services to new markets and Asia, African and South America.

As for the past decade or two goods and services enabled by satellites will be the major element of the space economy and this is set to grow as a proportion of the total space market.

Not much will change at NASA, SLS and Orion will continue. There will be a lot of change in NASA in 2018 and 2019. The other space agencies will also go through a lot of churn in those years. There will be a lot of emphasis on private companies as national champions for both launch and in-space elements.

The probable loss of ISS in 2024 will start to become an issue, serious proposals for what to replace it with will start to appear, these will not be firmed up until 2018 or later. A combination of cheap launch, commercial crew and cargo craft, and national pride/competition will lead to several LEO stations replacing ISS, perhaps general do everything stations from China, India and Russia and a selection of special purpose stations from USA, Europe and Japan.

The joker in the pack is ITS. It is not ready to be played in 2017, but just knowing that it is in SpaceX's hand could cause major (and unpredictable) changes in direction from other actors, particularly if SpaceX are seen to be making good progress. An order of magnitude increase in payload and two orders of magnitude reduction in cost ($/kg to orbit), is such a step change in capability that it will change the whole industry (even if all the gains are not realized initially).

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #46 on: 01/01/2017 12:20 PM »
30% chance of another F9 failure.
10% chance of ULA failure.
SpaceX at least equals ULA for launch rate, 60% chance.
US launches more than any other country.
At least 90 global launches.
Falcon Heavy launches.
Reused booster(s) launch.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #47 on: 01/01/2017 02:34 PM »
Side note here.

SpaceX has like 2 dozen launches planned for 2017 (or so). I think they could get 15, if things don't go wrong. ULA also may do 15. OrbitalATK has at least 5 launches planned for 2017, though they might only get 4.

There could be 35 US launches this year, compared to 22 in 2016, which also was at least as much as anyone else. That's impressive, and is the result of 3 major launch companies, I'm not counting Rocketlabs (if you consider them US), Virgin, later Blue Origin and others. The US launch industry is starting to look very robust.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #48 on: 01/03/2017 07:39 PM »
OK here's my attempt at predictions for 2017:


1. SpaceX reaches 10 or more launches (the thinking goes that as they plug past failures, the system will become more reliable).

2. SpaceX suffers another failure with F9 around Q4 2017.

3. Falcon Heavy launches in Q4 2017.

4. Cannae's experimental satellite featuring EMDrive propulsion technology launches in 2017.

5. Cannae's proprietary EMDrive technology proves to work in the vacuum of space finally putting to rest the skepticism about the technology.

6. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to *LEO and returns it safely in Q2 2017.

    * CORRECTION: BO rocket to sub-orbit - not LEO

7. 12 years after its inception, Virgin Galactic is still not able to conduct a manned sub-orbital test flight in 2017.

8. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.

9. in 2017 no one is still able to figure out what's causing Tabby's Star's strange dips in brightness. The mystery continues.

10. Roger Sawyer is nominated for Nobel in Physics for EMDrive technology (even though the scientific community is not on the same page about how the drive actually works.)

11. Donald Trump defunds NASA's earth Science. There is an exodus of earth scientists at NASA.

12. SpaceX unveils it's spacesuit in 2017.

13. SpaceX unveils a mockup, and more details about ITS in 2017.

« Last Edit: 01/09/2017 02:21 PM by moreno7798 »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #49 on: 01/03/2017 08:13 PM »
You mean Blue Origin to space, not LEO. It'd be suborbital.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online Jarnis

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #50 on: 01/03/2017 08:14 PM »
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.

Swing and a miss.

They maybe have full scale engine at the test stand in January-February.

From that to a booster, let alone a manned one, takes a bit more than an year. More like 3-4 years.

But yeah, they may fly people to space this year. With New Shepard (suborbital).

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #51 on: 01/03/2017 08:19 PM »
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.

I stand corrected. I meant to say they fly their rollercoaster ride to space and back.

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #52 on: 01/03/2017 08:45 PM »
6. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.

JWST has sufficient slack in its schedule that this very unlikely to happen.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #53 on: 01/03/2017 08:52 PM »
The point of this thread isn't to argue. But to provide a record of predictions.

I was just trying to clarify what I (correctly) thought was a mistake, not argue about a prediction. :)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #54 on: 01/07/2017 01:50 PM »
I think we'll see an opening for nuclear space. As in nuclear electric power for spacecrafts and space habitats. As well as for nuclear electric ion propulsion and nuclear thermal propulsion.

I think there's so much pent-up space nuclear demand, and that the new administration doesn't have any incentive to keep it on hold any longer. It would be a big boom for space flight and doing more for less seems to be something most in the new WH agree with is a good thing. That is a radical change in spirit. The obstacle has been foreign nuclear powers and the environmental movement. I think the new WH will be proud to defy both of them!
« Last Edit: 01/07/2017 01:52 PM by TakeOff »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #55 on: 01/08/2017 12:01 PM »
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?
For example:
   There'll be X launches this year
   Company X will experience a failure with rocket B
   Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction.
   SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO
   SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a prediction

Another example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.

Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few years

Now for the snark....

A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction  ;D (I hope that's wrong BTW)

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #56 on: 01/08/2017 12:22 PM »
No Falcon 9 will lose payload during 2017.
I think that the rocket now has evolved to near maximum capacity with smaller risks going forward. I'll allow a gray zone for partially failed orbital insertions. If the fueling testing problem is repeated, it will be without payload mounted.


I'd also predict that no Atlas V and no Ariane 5 will lose any payload during 2017, but that looks like a much more safer bet.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2017 12:23 PM by TakeOff »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #57 on: 01/08/2017 04:05 PM »
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?
For example:
   There'll be X launches this year
   Company X will experience a failure with rocket B
   Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction.
   SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO
   SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a prediction

Another example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.

Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few years

Now for the snark....

A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction  ;D (I hope that's wrong BTW)

Sadly, some people did think that was snarky and offensive. How about sticking to your own predictions and worry less about other people's ;)

#BeExcellentToEachOther

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #58 on: 01/09/2017 09:00 AM »
OK thank you Chris. My apologies to those I offended. No excuses sorry
« Last Edit: 01/09/2017 09:41 AM by vapour_nudge »

Offline Norm38

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #59 on: 05/08/2017 12:36 PM »
X37 lands in June

Just landed yesterday, May 7th.  Isn't there an X37-B thread?  Searching for it I didn't find much, this looked like the best place to post.


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