Author Topic: Predictions 2017  (Read 10526 times)

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #20 on: 12/13/2016 03:49 PM »
BE-4 full scale test, at last, will tell if Vulcan will really fly on CH4, or at all.

Long-promised, long-delayed Falcon Heavy may finally appear, if not fly.

CZ-5 and GSLV Mk 3 continue the gradual shift of the world's launch center of gravity toward the East.

SLS flight hardware rollouts, and possible Green Run testing of the longest-ever stage, late in the year.

At least one space launch industry reckoning may occur - probably not the one you are thinking about right now - as the cost of debt rises.

75 to 95 orbital launch attempts worldwide.  Three to six launch vehicle failures.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 03:53 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Prober

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #21 on: 12/13/2016 04:38 PM »
Election Over.....doesn't matter who won.


*1) The man made financial bubbles are the drivers


2) Federal reserve of 10 years 0 interest rates (ie monopoly dollars) Burst at least 18 months major pain ahead.


3) 2nd financial Bubble Burst max pain Sept 2017 when the contracts finalize.


Managing the no bucks -no buck rogers will rule all, as its the driver.


Can't make any other Predictions for 2017 other than that. 


There are shepherds, and sheep
and

Everything old is new again.


*Throttling up..... "The projections also show that the group expects the Fed to increase rates three times in 2017, to a rate of 1.4 percent by year's end. Its September projections signaled only two expected hikes next year."  http://tinyurl.com/h4x3a5w


Numbers to watch  Fed interest rates =  possible stabilization 3-4%;  Your Banking savings interest rate 4-6%.
 
Edit: add details



« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 11:25 AM by Prober »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline pikawaka

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #22 on: 12/13/2016 06:48 PM »
1. Falcon Heavy finally launches, successful recovery of all cores. Only 1 launch that year.

2. 3 F9 stages are reused, 1 of them twice.

3. ARM is cancelled. It's replaced with a lunar space station.

4. Blue Origin flies New Shepard crewed once. The BE-4 is successfully tested.

5. ULA has another in-flight anomaly. The mission is still successful, but it leads to delays with the CST-100.

6. SLS finally gets another mission manifested, A outer planets orbiter launching in the late 2020s

7. China announces something unexpectedly advanced, and demonstrates it shortly after. Something like lunar sample return or booster reuse.

That's all I've got, hopefully 7 is a lucky number!


Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #23 on: 12/13/2016 07:06 PM »
Launch Vehicles:
Falcon 9 will launch 12±2 times. (I'm predicting delays, but not another CRS-7 or AMOS-6)
At least one booster reflown in the second half of the year.
Falcon Heavy will be delayed until 2018.
SpaceShipTwo will not break the Kármán line before October 4th, and will not carry tourists on any flight. I (like many other people) will make sarcastic comments.

Policy:
NASA is officially refocused on Moon instead of Mars (or an asteroid). Meanwhile, robots continue to constitute the bulk of space exploration.

Science robots:
NEOWISE ends due to passive cooling becoming increasingly untenable.
Cassini will collide with Saturn on September 15. The last few minutes of data won't show anything exciting about the atmosphere, sadly.
OSIRIS-REx will perform a close flyby of a very large rock on September 17. Too large to grab a sample, really.
TESS's launch date gets pushed to January 2018.

Other:
1-2 GLXP teams launch. Any teams using all-new rockets experience launch failures, the rest contend with probe failures that shorten mission lifetimes. No one wins. (I hope I'm wrong on this one)
edit: forgot. August 21, 2017 will be a remarkably cloudy day in the US.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 08:29 PM by UmbralRaptor »

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #24 on: 12/13/2016 07:53 PM »
All right here goes:

- Cassini makes at least one history-making discovery before end of mission, takes at least one if not more iconic images
- The solar eclipse of 2017 over the US sparks interest in astronomy and solar science. I'll be in the path of totality under clear enough skies
- Blue Origin will fly people to just beyond the Karman line at the end of the year, but VG will only start powered flights of VSS Unity at the end of the year. December 2017 will be best month ever for suborbital tourism industry
- A Soyuz problem (possibly loss of mission or grounding) will bring commercial crew into sharp focus, and renewed effort will be made to fly CC in 2018. Progress or HTV cargo ship losses will put pressure on SpaceX and Orbital ATK to deliver and they will.
- Chinese will lose a key high profile mission to failure, their program will suffer a setback after years of big successes
- India, Europe, US will experience launch failures though most launches make it to their planned orbits. Russia has more launches go kaboom
- SpaceX flies 10 missions successfully (9 F9 1 Falcon Heavy) and the abort test will succeed. First RTF flight pushed back beyond January though, other issues will prevent more than 10 orbital launches
- An exomoon is discovered, along with at least one other planet orbiting a star in the Alpha/Proxima Centauri system
- Planet 9 not yet discovered but more progress toward finding it
- Tabby's Star mystery solved, nothing to do with aliens
- Orion and SLS continue, though SLS program likely limited in number of launches and years by Trump admin. #MissionToMars folded into #MissionToMarsByWayofMoon with a small cislunar space station the next step. SLS manifest filled with lunar facility building block missions, Europa and Mars sample return missions, lunar crewed surface missions (demo missions using smaller landers, nothing like Altair), but commercial capabilities for exploration missions planned for beyond 2030
- ARM will be repurposed into a lunar sample effort
- New NASA Administrator possibly Eileen Collins
- I will finish at least one Space model
- I will attend at least one launch in person
- TESS will launch successfully
- Red Dragon stays on track for 2018, incredibly enough
- At least one lunar X Prize mission launches toward the Moon
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 11:31 PM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline rocx

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #25 on: 12/14/2016 08:35 AM »
First time I'm participating in the predictions game. To avoid ambiguity and keep my predictions hard as steel, I only predict launch vehicle successes and failures. Ed Kyle's statistics at the end of 2017 will be my measure.

Launch vehicleSuccessesFailures
CZ (DF-5)191
Falcon 9110
R-792
Atlas V90
Ariane 580
PSLV60
Proton50
H-2A30
Electron21
Falcon Heavy20
Delta IV20
GSLV20
Antares 23020
Vega20
CZ-510
Zenit10
CZ-1110
Delta II10
Minotaur10
Pegasus XL10
Epsilon01
« Last Edit: 12/14/2016 08:36 AM by rocx »
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline Alesayr

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #26 on: 12/14/2016 10:27 AM »
SpaceX will return to flight in January, and conduct 12-14 missions this year.
Falcon Heavy will (finally) fly in March, but at least one booster will fail to land softly.
Red Dragon will slip to 2020. Manned Dragon 2 tests will slip to 2018. ITS timeframe will prove unrealistic, although estimates might not be updated till 2018.


Blue Origin will fly at least 7 test flights in 2017. They will include the first manned flights, but no tourists will be launched yet. There may however be paying customers flying scientific payloads. Pricing for a manned flight will be revealed in the second half of the year. More information will be released about the New Glenn.


Electron will launch in the first half of the year.

Virgin Galactic will continue test flights but tourists will not be flown in 2017, meaning a decade will have passed since Bransons first estimate of when tourists would fly was proven false.

Xcor will live on but remain on the backburner.

SLS will survive. Orion will probably also survive but Lockheed will be forced to find a way to cut costs. ARM will be cancelled. Trump will announce the USA will return to the moon before 2024.

OATK's proposal for a lunar orbital station will be accepted.

More information will be leaked about Chinas spaceplane program.

BE4 will be chosen as the main engine for Vulcan.

Offline jgoldader

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #27 on: 12/14/2016 01:03 PM »
I'm stressed out and in a grumpy mood today, so next year's 10 easily-graded and specific predictions are DOOOOOOMED!

1. FH demo is lost during first stage flight.
2. There are 9 F9 flights.
3. All F9 flights are successful.
3. COPVs in F9 cause another significant issue/delay *after* RTF.
4. Two Russian launches fail.
5. One Chinese launch fails.
6. An Atlas or Delta fails to place the payload in proper orbit.  (Not due to fault with payload.)
7. Another commission is appointed to study SLS and the whole exploration program.  By the end of the year, it is clear that SLS will have just a handful of flights.
8. NASA exploration focuses on a crew-tended outpost in lunar orbit or at an EML point, plus plans for a commercial LEO station.
9. JWST launch slips to 2019.
10. At least the human part of ARM is cancelled.
Recovering astronomer

Online Kaputnik

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #28 on: 12/15/2016 07:07 AM »
FH will make it on to the pad but not launch (shades of F9 at the Cape in 2009).
SpaceX achieve 10 or 11 launches. Taking thing cautiously after the two failures.
More Raptor demo test firings, but still subscale.
Test ITS composite Lox tank not yet successfully demonstrated with full cryo load.

Another good year for ULA, with new commercial contracts for Atlas V and no failures to deliver a payload to required orbit.

Hard to say what the new administration will do. I could see something big and controversial affecting a big project (JWST, SLS, Orion). Anything related to climate change is at risk.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2017
« Reply #29 on: 12/15/2016 07:46 PM »
Planet nine will be discovered - Mike Brown seems increasingly confident on this.

LIGO will make more observations that will increasingly challenge what we think we know about black holes and will put a strain on some aspects of general activity.

There will be another major light dip at Tabby's star.

We will refine our ideas about Proxima b.

Russia will suffer at least one more launch incident.

BO will fly with at least one person onboard.

NASA will be refocused towards the moon.

FH will finally fly at least once.

Discoveries by Curiosity will increase the likelihood that Mars was habitable in the past. Plus there will be more methane detections.

Further evidence of water in the rest of the Solar System.

China will make its first successful cargo flight to a space station and launch another successful Moon mission.
« Last Edit: 12/15/2016 07:49 PM by Star One »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #30 on: 12/15/2016 09:50 PM »
This isn't a Space Policy thread. Some trimming... political and a couple of just silly posts were term-limited out.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #31 on: 12/15/2016 10:09 PM »
Predictions for 2017

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence. (Poll for number is open and here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
- SpaceX will recover at least 80% of the cores they attempt to recover
- FH will launch
- LC40 will return to service
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)

- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times and at least one of them will be with paying cargo

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least twice. At least one launch will be a success.

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts

« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:42 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online jacqmans

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #32 on: 12/16/2016 03:05 PM »
Space x will have another launch explosion...

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #33 on: 12/16/2016 03:48 PM »
First time I'm playing this game, I don't expect too much of it!

- Arianespace makes another perfect year of launches. First Ariane 6 deals signed for ESA/Europe
- Russia continues to slow on governemental launches, has trouble replacing old gov sats and keeping GLONASS alive.
- Russia suffers one launch failure on Soyouz, hopefully not the FG variant. Proton flies 5 times, close call on an upper stage issue.
- India set another record year and announces a new and ambitious astronautic roadmap.
- Japan flies the tinyest rocket of them all into orbit. Later in the year announces one year setback on H-3 development.
- China continue to climb its perfectly paved road to success. LM-3 "steals" 4 to 5 COMSATs contracts and everyone is envious. Chang'e 5 successful triggers the US national pride about the moon and a robotic race. We get news about the chinese beyond-LEO plans.
- RocketLab fails on first launch, is successful on 2 other attempts the same year. Gets Moon Express on the right course, but the vessel fails to reach the moon, as every other GLXP contestant except Part Time Scientists, which rover fails to achieve 500m on the surface.
- SpaceX makes us think they will play the "slow pace" for 6 month as usual, then announces something utterly inachievable in Q3. One upper stage malfunction resulting in lower orbit, but 14 F9 success, 1 reused core success and FH on the launchpad.
- ULA perfect year except for RD-180 ban on the table again. News on ACES and BE-4 is selected for vulcan.
- SLS first stage gets the most incredible ground test ever at stennis. Vibrations detected during ops delay the first flight by a year. Program is contested but shifts to the moon. Europa and Venus missions are officialized. Entire world mourns on the earth observation program.
- MOM stops operating abruptly, while opportunity still survives. Curiosity drill is definitely broken at the end of the year. Cassini brings us incredible pictures as usual and juno performs the periapsis maneuver in april.
- Blue Origin does 6 NS flights including 1 final test in january, 4 commercial payloads and one manned suborbital test end of 2017.

- Nomadd is officialy named "Boca Chica observation Superviser" by SpaceX staff.
- I'm still amazed by SpaceXflight.com or wathever site I'm paying for L2 next year.

And finally maybe I'll get enough time and money to flight to USA and get to see the Cape once in my lifetime (november, fingers crossed).

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #34 on: 12/16/2016 04:01 PM »
JMO (not including any SpaceX guesses due to the aforementioned poll)

ULA has another perfect year.
Steady progress towards SLS. Launch remains scheduled for 2018 by the end of 2017.
The Trump Administration begins to suggest a lunar direction for NASA, but generally speaking ignores NASA.
Starliner slips to NET Q2 2019.
TESS will not launch in 2017.
KIC 8462852 remains a mystery.
Planet IX isn't found, but evidence will continue to grow to suggest its existence (although the upper-mass limit may be lowered).
JWST remains on course for 2018.
Star Wars Episode VIII will be awesome!
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:03 PM by Orbiter »
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #35 on: 12/16/2016 04:38 PM »
1 - Falcon Heavy first flight will successfully happen near the end of the year.

2 - SLS/Orion lumbers through the year with some additional delays announced.

3 - Manned Dragon has already been pushed to May of 2018 so easy prediction that it will not fly in 2017.

4 - Some version of an Augustine commission convenes and recommends return to the Moon.

5 - Cis-Lunar habitat concept advances with multiple proposals but no final selection

6 - NASA proposes COTS type effort for a lunar lander - not approved yet in 2017

7 - ARM redirected to Phobos sample return

8 - No realism appears in SpaceX ITS schedule

9 - Blue Origin flies with people and announces timeline for tourist flights

10 - Virgin Galactic reaches space again and firms up their timeline for tourist flights trying to beat Blue Origin (neither will have a customer on board in 2017)

If my predictions are right on I promise not to gloat.  If they are wrong mods please delete thread so I can deny that I made them. ;)

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #36 on: 12/16/2016 04:58 PM »
SpaceX:
-11 SpaceX missions including one Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy fails on first launch.
- Test satelites for the commsat constellation program hitch a ride on a Falcon Heavy launch.
- 8 out of 11 missions have succesful landings.
- Unmanned Dragon 2 mission delayed to 2018.
- SpaceX will be quiet about ITS with new information coming out in drips over the year.

Rocket Lab:

-First flight fails.
-At least 5 flights this year including 3 test flights.

Blue Origin
-Succesful test program for BE4. It is picked for ULA's Vulcan.
- New Sheppard has the first succesful manned flights by the middle of the year
- New Sheppard has at least 8 flights in 2017.
- More details of New Glenn are unveiled.
- Plans for an additional launch site are unveiled.

Virgin Galactic

- SS2 has one powered suborbital flight by the years end. No accidents.
- LauncherOne becomes the main focus of the company.

Google X-Prize

- One attempt this year. It will fail on landing.

Russia

-Their space program detriorates further in this year and they lose two boosters.
-There is an in flight launch abort for an ISS mission.
-No one dies but it causes a change in US policy.
-Both Orion/SLS and Commercial Crew get a substantial shot in the arm, with increased budgets.
-NASA is made investigate putting Orion on an EELV.
-The use of Shenzhou for ISS flights is seriously investigated.
-ESA consider moving ExoMars to Ariane 5.

ESA

-A pretty much flawless year of missions for Arianespace and ESA.
-They gain a mission due to another country experiencing a launch failure.
-Pressure builds on Europe over the long term future of Ariane 6 due to its lack of reusability.
-Some notional programs to implement it are raised but not at the funding stage yet.
-ESA floats the Moon Village concept but will wait until the Trump space policy emerges before pushing in any particular direction.

NASA

-NASA has a year of flawless missions but will be in a state of flux due to the incoming administration.
-There will be a pivot back towards doing a Lunar mission with a mix of commercial and SLS/Orion.
-A demonstration Lunar Orbital Habitat gains funding.

Firefly

- The company winds up by the end of the year, selling its physical and intellectual assets.

China

-One launch failure
-a tremendous 2017 of firsts in the Chinese Space Program
-Tianzhou is successful
-Chang'e 5 sample return is succesful.
-In 2017, they fly the most missions of any country in the world.
-China will make moves to aqcuire space technology from sanction laden Russia such as RD-180 engines.

Skylon/Britain

-Reaction Engines get a boost from the British Government to develop Sabre. 
-The Brexit pushes the UK into using spaceflight as a nationalistic symbol of their capability on the global stage. -Efforts are ramped up to develop a space port.

Iran

-They have a single successful launch.
-Work on a booster in the same capability range as Vega begins
-Plans for a Soyuz class booster in the late 2020s begin

Turkey
-Turkey begins efforts to develop independent access to space similar to Israel.

Japan
A succesful year with no failures.
-Japan waits for the outcome of the NASA transition before realigning its space policy.

ULA
-ULA picks BE4 for Vulcan.
-They push hard for distributed launch in 2017 as a solution for a Moon program.
-ACES engine remains undecided but
-The idea of converting ACES/Centaur into a Moon lander is floated.
-They pick up an additional Atlas V launch due to someone else having a failure.




« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:59 PM by Darkseraph »
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Starlab90

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #37 on: 12/16/2016 05:14 PM »
This is a fun thread, so I'll take a shot at a few predictions:

1. The net result of all the recent launch failure investigations and subsequent corrections will be that there will be no launch failures in 2017.

2. SpaceX will launch more Falcon 9s in 2017 than in any previous calendar year.

3. SpaceX will launch their first Falcon Heavy in 2017.

4. Under the capable leadership of Mike Moses, Virgin Galactic will make solid progress with Spaceship 2 flight testing. By the end of the year, they will conduct powered flight tests less than 2 weeks apart.

5. One of the things Virgin Galactic will learn from their successful tests in 2017 is that Spaceship 2 will not be ready to carry passengers on suborbital flights before the end of 2018.

6. Blue Origin will pleasantly surprise us with the progress they make doing whatever it is they are going to do.

7. At the end of 2017, SLS Core Stage 1 will still be at MAF, with at least a couple more months of work to be done on it before it can be shipped to Stennis.

8. KSC will install at least one of the EM-1 aft booster segments on the Mobile Launcher by the end of 2017.

9. SpaceX won't be able to find enough money to develop ITS.

10. NASA will fund a small contract with SpaceX to study the feasibility of adding SpaceX boosters or other components on SLS in order to reduce SLS costs.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #38 on: 12/17/2016 01:34 AM »
- NASA BRAC-style consolidation will happen. Ames, Glenn will be done

- NASA budget will be chopped by cutting Earth Sciences and Space Technology out completely

- Bridenstine will become NASA admin

- ITAR will get worse with new restrictions

- JWST will be cancelled

- Space industry growth will remain at less than 4%

- Cubesats will continue be fastest growing industry segment and keep representing less than 1% total value of all launches

- Comsat orders will decline further vs 2016

- China will win more than 2 major commercial satellite/launch order bundles

- At least two major launch mishaps

- One new smallsat launcher becomes operational, not in US

- State of the art in deep space chemical propulsion will remain pressure-fed hypergolic, hydrazine biprops for about 50 years now

- Less than 80 launches, 14 for Arianespace
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline Danderman

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #39 on: 12/19/2016 03:55 AM »

- State of the art in deep space chemical propulsion will remain pressure-fed hypergolic, hydrazine biprops for about 50 years now



I hear they are using some sort of electric propulsion using exotic propellants for some deep space missions. Very high ISP. This could be the dawn of a new era.

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