Author Topic: Predictions 2017  (Read 12931 times)

Offline Svetoslav

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Predictions 2017
« on: 12/12/2016 03:24 PM »
OK, Let's start with the traditional predictions thread :)

Here I go first. I remind that my comments are only opinions and interpretations about current trends in space exploration:

1. Blue Origin will send a man to space, effectivelly becoming the first US company after the shuttle era to achieve a piloted mission

2. SpaceX will give up on sending people to space in 2017, first manned flight will eventually slip to 2018

3. China will launch Chang-e sample return Moon mission and it will be successful.

4. There will possibly be another failure of a Proton-M or Soyuz rocket

5. Orion/SLS won't be canceled under a Trump administration.

6. NASA will officially be transitioned for a return to the Moon

7. More delays for Falcon 9 Heavy, it may slip to 2018 which means that SpaceX will give up on a mission to Mars in 2018 too (it will slip to 2020)

8. ExoMars - TGO will complete successful aerobraking, will start main science mission in the end of the year as espected

9. SpaceShipTwo Unity will make several gliding tests, no powered flights in 2017.

10. Eight launches for Falcon 9.

Offline DatUser14

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #1 on: 12/12/2016 03:35 PM »
10 F9 launches, 1 FH.
EM-1 slips to 2019
ITS slips to 2026
Atlas V launch failure
F9 does not have a failure in 2017
#JourneyToMars is redirected to a #JourneyBackToTheMoon under trump
« Last Edit: 12/12/2016 03:37 PM by DatUser14 »
Where can I apply for SpaceX fanboy?.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #2 on: 12/12/2016 04:40 PM »
SpaceX reaches orbit 14, count'em, 14 times, including 2 Falcon Heavy launches.

SpaceX lands and recovers 2/3 of the stages they try to.

More evidence of a subsurface ocean on Pluto

More methane is found on Mars, which leads to speculation of life being there, but it will turn out to be more likely a geological source.

More evidence that Proxima Centauri b is an ocean planet.

Two more "Earth analogues", or earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are found, both within 20 light years.

More tension with Russia leads to more tension using Russian rockets to launch American and European astronauts to the space station.

Blue origin does another successful test of a launch abort system.
e^(pi)i = -1

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #3 on: 12/12/2016 05:08 PM »
- SpaceX has fourteen successful launches of F9 plus two FH launches. (16 in total).

- one F9 launch is the in flight abort.

- Elon unveils his spacesuit

- RD-180 banned again

- BO launches NS two more times, both successful.

- XPrize sees three launches to moon. One rover succeeds (India) and wins prize.

- ULA has first failure of Atlas in a long string of successes. (See ban on RD-180)

- Virgin creeps forward and most people forget about it

- SLS slips another year and two thousand more posts occur here as a result.

- Something crazy is discovered "out there"
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Online eric z

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #4 on: 12/12/2016 05:37 PM »
 At the end of the year, NASA Spaceflight.com will still be the best site for space fanatics, even for SLS-fans. And we're still going to Mars, but the moon will be our pit-stop.

Online Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #5 on: 12/12/2016 06:13 PM »
The "POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017" similar to http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071 will be up shortly and you'll be able to make launch count predictions there. This post will be modified when it is)

It is up.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2017 04:11 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Danderman

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #6 on: 12/12/2016 06:31 PM »
All major development efforts slip by one year, including

FH
SLS
Crewed ships
Google XPrize
MLM (ISS)

SpaceX makes 2/3rds of scheduled launches in 2017

Another Soyuz/Proton failure, this one will hurt

Renewal of Russia/US partnerships (to a small degree).

Not only will Commercial Crew slip, but NASA will buy more rides on Soyuz. CC will not be cancelled, but there will be a longer test period before NASA allows crew on board.

Blue Origin will attempt an agonizingly small number of test launches in 2017.

No new commercial US launcher will make it to orbit in 2017.

SpaceX will attempt a flight with a used first stage. If successful, the Europeans will make big noises about reusing a first stage.

Red Dragon will unofficially slip to 2020.

Someone will announce a kick stage for new commercial launchers to inject very small payloads beyond LEO.

SpaceX will announce a plan for a first stage powered by Raptor that makes FH obsolete. I don't mean ITS, I mean a ~2,000,000 lb thrust first stage, maybe with a single Raptor upper stage.

« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 04:04 AM by Danderman »

Offline brickmack

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #7 on: 12/12/2016 06:39 PM »
Orion canceled outright, SLS probably put up for serious review but not terminated (this year). EUS development delayed, SLS-1 switches to a cargo mission carrying lunar station element in ~2019, SLS-2 may use second iCPS.

ARM gets canceled :(

SpaceX flies its manned demo by the end of the year, also first paying FH launch by the end of the year. First reflight by March

NASA issues formal FRPs for commercial crew and cargo to lunar orbit, as Orion replacement.

New administration flips back to a lunar return. No budget for landers yet, will continue with development of lunar orbiting station and logistics vehicles

More details of Blue Origins CCtCap involvement come out. No involvement in current round of crew flights, but looking to get in on "CCtCap 2" or lunar missions

Successful test fire of complete BE-4, BO confirmed as Vulcan core engine supplier. Vulcan remains on course for 2019 debut. Aerojet looks for alternate uses for AR-1

Firefly and probably a few other startups fold, some mergers.

Russias space program continues to implode, Federatsiya and Angara delayed again meanwhile stated ambitions grow to epic proportions

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #8 on: 12/12/2016 09:59 PM »
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:

Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com
100 successful orbital launches worldwide
10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIO
Elon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systems
No launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)
X37 lands in June
Another X37 launches before EOY
Trump funds an outer planets mission
« Last Edit: 12/12/2016 10:06 PM by vapour_nudge »

Offline ZachS09

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #9 on: 12/12/2016 10:03 PM »
Wanna hear my ten predictions? Here we go.

1: The Falcon Heavy demo mission does fly on its rescheduled 2017 launch date.

2: The SLS/Orion program will not be cancelled under the Trump administration (unless a recount one week from now proves that Clinton legitimately won).

3: One of the Atlas Vs will ultimately suffer a launch vehicle failure early into the flight (maybe just after tower clearance).

4: Arianespace will succeed in launching three more Vega rockets, giving Vega a 100% success rate by the end of 2017.

5: ISRO's LVM-3 (GSLV Mk.3) launches successfully with the GSat 19E payload on its January 20th launch date, paving the way for eventual retirement of the GSLV Mk.2 and PSLV.

6: China's Chang'e 5 lunar sample return mission launches successfully and gets the samples it needs, but disintegrates during capsule reentry due to an unknown problem.

7: Tianzhou 1 launches to the Tiangong 2 space station and successfully completes its mission with no flaws.

8: Arianespace will probably suffer a partial failure of one of its Ariane 5 rockets. By "partial failure", I mean underperformance in either the first stage or the second stage.

9: The next planned Soyuz launches including the manned versions launch successfully; the last Soyuz-U also flies true to its form with Progress MS-05.

10: SpaceX flies 9 or 10 Falcon 9 missions over the course of 2017.

By the end of 2017, I would like anyone to tell me whether my predictions were right or wrong. I would appreciate that favor.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 06:51 PM by ZachS09 »
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #10 on: 12/12/2016 10:24 PM »
Persistence is the simplest form of prediction.  It just means you predict what is already happening.

So, ULA will continue to launch without failure.
SpaceX will continue to launch around half of what they say they will.
The Russians will continue to have intermittent failures.
ISS will continue to be crewed and to do good science.
The commercial crew companies will continue to develop their vehicles.

Offline redliox

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #11 on: 12/12/2016 10:35 PM »
Hmmm it's always hard to keep personal opinion and educated guesses separate, but let's give it a whirl....

I think I'll categorize my predictions into 4  main groups:

Space X Developments
-Falcon Heavy launches; succeeds but probably encounters issues either on the 1st or 2nd flights
-Dragon 2 launches and succeeds
-Elon Musk divulges Mars info, specifically about Red Dragon plans (like its landing site)


Trump Space Policy Developments
-SLS/Orion put on heavy review (but not canceled)
-ARM outright canceled
-Moon prioritized; Mars on sideline
-Commercial space prioritized


Planetary Science Developments
-Venus missions selected (either NF or Discovery)
-Ice Giant mission specified (if not selected)
-Europa Clipper begins early construction & its SLS flight fully confirmed
-Europa Lander delayed
-Mars Sample Return finally gets **** together, possibly via Red Dragon collaboration


Additional Space Developments
-TESS launches, discovers more exoplanets
-Optical/UV space telescope proposed (as a counterpart to Webb & successor to Hubble)
-More exoplanet discoveries made at Proxima & Alpha Centauri
-China launches more crew, more of its own station components
-China launches new lunar probe, elaborates on Lunar and Martian plans
-Russia elaborates on more plans (nothing comes to fruition though)
-Exomars 2020 delayed to 2022

I predict a mostly good year although likely stuffy from political hot air (and not just American alone).
"Let the trails lead where they may, I will follow."
-Tigatron

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #12 on: 12/12/2016 11:27 PM »
Not aimed at any post in particular but we're a bit fluffy with our predictions. How about some more specific predictions - really try going out on a limb? 😇

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #13 on: 12/13/2016 03:50 AM »
Hopefully I'm wrong on some of these, but here we go:

Orbital:
- Russia will continue to have problems with reliability and will lose another Progress and/or Proton.
- SLS will be cancelled like all of the shuttle derived vehicles before it. It will be replaced by a shuttle derived vehicle.
- Rocket Lab will launch Electron at least twice, but will lose one vehicle.
- Virgin will unveil Launcher One hardware, but no flights.
- The SpaceX Dragon 2 test flight will slip to Q4 2017 2018.
- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not until Q4. It will be awesome.
- SpaceX will refly a booster, but none will be reflown twice.

Suborbital:
- EXOS will fly to space and land succesfully.
- Virgin will do one SS2 powered flight near the end of the year.
- Blue will do 12 flights, demonstrate a 24 hour turnaround, and fly people.
- High altitude balloon "suborbital tourism" flights will start carrying people.
- Masten will demonstrate the cradle landing that they have long alluded to.
- XCOR will still be around doing cool stuff.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 04:59 AM by Gliderflyer »
I tried it at home

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #14 on: 12/13/2016 04:19 AM »
What I want to happen, and what I think will happen will be two different things...
"Those who can't, Blog".   'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!! (crickets chirping)

Offline jongoff

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #15 on: 12/13/2016 05:29 AM »
I'll make a few predictions, in no particular order. Note these are predictions, not always what I *want* to see happen, but what I think is most likely.

1- SpaceX will return to flight successfully, and finally break 10 flights this year. Falcon Heavy will make it to the pad, but might not fly. They won't lose another flight outright this year, but something will happen that will keep them from getting more than say 15 flights. They will successfully refly at least one booster, and recover many more boosters. SpaceX will formally slip their first Red Dragon flight to the next Mars window after 2018.

2- ULA will keep plugging along, with no outright failures. They'll announce their Vulcan propulsion choice before the summer, and I'm guessing it'll be BE-4. They'll make at least one RapidLaunch sale for a commercial satellite launch that will fly in 2017.

3- Blue Origin will fly at least half a dozen successful unmanned New Shephard flights in 2017, including at least 2-3 with paying research customers. They will successfully get to a full-throttle, full-duration BE-4 test before the end of the year.

4- RocketLabs will successfully fly their Electron vehicle in Q1 or Q2, and will have at least 3-4 successful flights this year. They'll also have at least one failure or flight anomaly though.

5- VG will get back into powered flight testing of SS2 before the end of the year, but not commercial service. LauncherOne will make at least a captive carry test of a flight article by the end of the year, but will not do a full orbital flight by the end of the year, though they'll be close. (Once again, I hope I'm being pessimistic).

6- DARPA will pick Boeing for XS-1 in spite of how things went with ALASA, and will end up regretting it. (I hope I'm wrong here--I'd much rather see Masten get it)

7- XCOR will still be not dead, and may make progress on a few fronts, but will not have Lynx flying, and probably won't have wings on it by the end of the year. Though they may have a hot-fire test of a full-scale RL-10 class LOX/LH2 thrust chamber (not necessarily with a fully integrated power head).

8- Masten will also not be dead, in spite of not winning XS-1. They'll continue to do flights of Xodiac and Xaero-B, and will have at least one impressive big step for the year -- either a successful landing cradle landing, or a high altitude flight with aerodynamic drag flaps used for steering during recovery.

9- Trump will nominate Mike Griffin for NASA Administrator (this is one I really hope is wrong).

10- ARM gets canceled.

11- NASA gets redirected in a more Return to the Moon fashion. But still isn't given a big enough budget to do things the way Congress will force them to do things.

12- At least one of the Megaconstellation players (OneWeb, SpaceX, or Boeing) will announce having raised enough money to launch at least an initial constellation that is at least 1/4 the size of their final proposed constellation. At least one of the players will launch one or more "pathfinder" spacecraft.

13- No ISS cargo vehicles will be lost in 2017.

14- NASA will not cancel SLS or Orion in 2017.

15- At least one more potentially earthlike exoplanet (somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5x earth mass, in the habitable zone) will be found around a star within 20LY of Earth.

16- There will be at least one major space debris event this year (either a close call with the ISS that requires moving the astronauts into a Soyuz, or a collision that generates at least 100 new pieces of trackable debris). Governments still won't take the threat seriously.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 05:44 AM by jongoff »

Offline sdsds

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #16 on: 12/13/2016 06:25 AM »
- No major changes are acknowledged in the SLS or Orion external schedules but internal schedule margins become much thinner across many aspects of both programs.

- A new NASA administrator takes office. This has almost no apparent effect.

- No one will be talking about redirecting asteroids or sending humans to asteroids. If someone does mention it they will be met largely with blank stares.

- F9 returns to flight and experiences at least one in-flight anomaly that raises public concern (though not necessarily a loss of mission).

- For most of the year (i.e. through the end of July) there is considerable disagreement about whether FH will fly before year end. No prediction about whether or not it actually does.

- Musk is briefly hospitalized. The Tesla share price briefly drops more than 20%. The two events are not necessarily correlated.

- Some SpaceX supporters begin to question the schedule for ITS and the first humans on Mars; then once again block those doubts from their minds entirely.
 
- ULA execution of missions (including schedule) continues to be nearly flawless; statistically no different than the past. No one really notices.

- Bruno openly commits himself to making a distributed launch happen "soon," e.g. before the end of 2025.

- BE-4 sails smoothly through development, test, and qualification as the choice for Vulcan propulsion.

- Blue Origin once again demonstrates or announces something that was largely unexpected and makes a positive impression on spaceflight enthusiasts.

- AJR offer something unexpectedly positive and forward-thinking regarding a major engine (RL10, RS-25, J2-X, or RS-68).

- Russia launches a preemptive nuclear missile strike. Oh no, wait. Russia continues to launch payloads with mixed success; shows no substantial progress on any new program at all related to human spaceflight.

- A Very Important Person in the United States becomes alarmingly alarmed about the successes of China's human spaceflight and lunar programs.

- Some commercial entity demonstrates capabilities that make a rapid cadence micro-launch system seem economically sound. There's general consensus such systems will soon (before e.g. 2020) be launching small payloads to orbit dozens of times per year. 
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 06:28 AM by sdsds »
-- sdsds --

Offline Svetoslav

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Offline Bynaus

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #18 on: 12/13/2016 07:53 AM »
I like the idea of BO being first back to space next year (although: "space", and yes, we will get a few more tweets from Elon telling us the difference between space and orbit). I think Bezos will push for that. And we will all be delighted!

I think FH will not fly 2017. At some point in early summer, Elon will announce that the inaugural flight of FH will be the Red Dragon flight in 2018, says that priority is on avoiding further scheduling slips for F9 customers. F9 will do a record number of flights, 12 would be my guess but wouldn't be surprised if it was more (up to 16?). Crew Dragon unmanned flight test will happen in early December.

Dream Chaser flies again!

Trump Administration sets up review board for ARM, SLS, Orion. Board recommends to end ARM (but keep SEP elements for a general-purpose deep space tug), and to keep SLS and Orion for now, but EM-1 as planned now (2018) is canceled and only the EUS-variant (1B Crew/Cargo) of the SLS will be developed (it also gets a name in the process), EM-1 rescheduled for 2020 or so, to be followed in 2022 by EM-2 (manned). Keep Mars as a long-term goal (we will soon see the first manned NASA landing pushed officially to the 2040ies), but "proving ground" strategy around the Moon (also with an eye towards China) fleshed out in more detail (including commercial resupply of the lunar orbital habitat).

More Russian mishaps. More Chinese sucesses (including launch of Tianzhou, the first chinese space station re-supply ship, and Chang-E 5, the latter towards the end of the year).

More discoveries in the outer solar system in support of the Planet Nine hypothesis (whether that means I think they will find it, I leave that up to you to decide ;) ).

Planet around one of the main Centauri stars found. Its a rocky world too hot for life.

Offline LM13

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #19 on: 12/13/2016 03:09 PM »
1.  Mike Griffin is not nominated as NASA Administrator, but someone similar to him in goals is.

2.  FH flies at least twice.  F9 flies at least 12 times.

3.  Proton suffers a launch failure.  Some time afterward, Russia will announce a project to build an interstellar starship (somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but I do expect some kind of unrealistic goal they have no intention of meeting). 

4.  ULA launches all payloads essentially flawlessly. 

5.  Chang'e 5 returns samples from the Moon.  To the disappointment of American space buffs, this does not trigger any apparent reaction in Congress or the Executive Branch.

6.  Planet 9 is discovered.

7.  NASA announces the next Discovery mission in January.  Venus is the target.

EDIT: According to the NASA Discovery Mission 2015 thread, I'm already wrong on the first count.  As to the second...

8.  NASA keeps #JourneyToMars as its stated goal, but a lunar proving ground is worked in somehow.  This may take the form of an LLO space station rather than a surface base, however.

9.  Full 3.5 MN Raptor test fire.

10. EM-1 slips to early 2019. 
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 03:22 PM by LM13 »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #20 on: 12/13/2016 03:49 PM »
BE-4 full scale test, at last, will tell if Vulcan will really fly on CH4, or at all.

Long-promised, long-delayed Falcon Heavy may finally appear, if not fly.

CZ-5 and GSLV Mk 3 continue the gradual shift of the world's launch center of gravity toward the East.

SLS flight hardware rollouts, and possible Green Run testing of the longest-ever stage, late in the year.

At least one space launch industry reckoning may occur - probably not the one you are thinking about right now - as the cost of debt rises.

75 to 95 orbital launch attempts worldwide.  Three to six launch vehicle failures.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 03:53 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Prober

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #21 on: 12/13/2016 04:38 PM »
Election Over.....doesn't matter who won.


*1) The man made financial bubbles are the drivers


2) Federal reserve of 10 years 0 interest rates (ie monopoly dollars) Burst at least 18 months major pain ahead.


3) 2nd financial Bubble Burst max pain Sept 2017 when the contracts finalize.


Managing the no bucks -no buck rogers will rule all, as its the driver.


Can't make any other Predictions for 2017 other than that. 


There are shepherds, and sheep
and

Everything old is new again.


*Throttling up..... "The projections also show that the group expects the Fed to increase rates three times in 2017, to a rate of 1.4 percent by year's end. Its September projections signaled only two expected hikes next year."  http://tinyurl.com/h4x3a5w


Numbers to watch  Fed interest rates =  possible stabilization 3-4%;  Your Banking savings interest rate 4-6%.
 
Edit: add details



« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 11:25 AM by Prober »
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work. ~ by Thomas Alva Edison

Offline pikawaka

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #22 on: 12/13/2016 06:48 PM »
1. Falcon Heavy finally launches, successful recovery of all cores. Only 1 launch that year.

2. 3 F9 stages are reused, 1 of them twice.

3. ARM is cancelled. It's replaced with a lunar space station.

4. Blue Origin flies New Shepard crewed once. The BE-4 is successfully tested.

5. ULA has another in-flight anomaly. The mission is still successful, but it leads to delays with the CST-100.

6. SLS finally gets another mission manifested, A outer planets orbiter launching in the late 2020s

7. China announces something unexpectedly advanced, and demonstrates it shortly after. Something like lunar sample return or booster reuse.

That's all I've got, hopefully 7 is a lucky number!


Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #23 on: 12/13/2016 07:06 PM »
Launch Vehicles:
Falcon 9 will launch 12±2 times. (I'm predicting delays, but not another CRS-7 or AMOS-6)
At least one booster reflown in the second half of the year.
Falcon Heavy will be delayed until 2018.
SpaceShipTwo will not break the Kármán line before October 4th, and will not carry tourists on any flight. I (like many other people) will make sarcastic comments.

Policy:
NASA is officially refocused on Moon instead of Mars (or an asteroid). Meanwhile, robots continue to constitute the bulk of space exploration.

Science robots:
NEOWISE ends due to passive cooling becoming increasingly untenable.
Cassini will collide with Saturn on September 15. The last few minutes of data won't show anything exciting about the atmosphere, sadly.
OSIRIS-REx will perform a close flyby of a very large rock on September 17. Too large to grab a sample, really.
TESS's launch date gets pushed to January 2018.

Other:
1-2 GLXP teams launch. Any teams using all-new rockets experience launch failures, the rest contend with probe failures that shorten mission lifetimes. No one wins. (I hope I'm wrong on this one)
edit: forgot. August 21, 2017 will be a remarkably cloudy day in the US.
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 08:29 PM by UmbralRaptor »

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #24 on: 12/13/2016 07:53 PM »
All right here goes:

- Cassini makes at least one history-making discovery before end of mission, takes at least one if not more iconic images
- The solar eclipse of 2017 over the US sparks interest in astronomy and solar science. I'll be in the path of totality under clear enough skies
- Blue Origin will fly people to just beyond the Karman line at the end of the year, but VG will only start powered flights of VSS Unity at the end of the year. December 2017 will be best month ever for suborbital tourism industry
- A Soyuz problem (possibly loss of mission or grounding) will bring commercial crew into sharp focus, and renewed effort will be made to fly CC in 2018. Progress or HTV cargo ship losses will put pressure on SpaceX and Orbital ATK to deliver and they will.
- Chinese will lose a key high profile mission to failure, their program will suffer a setback after years of big successes
- India, Europe, US will experience launch failures though most launches make it to their planned orbits. Russia has more launches go kaboom
- SpaceX flies 10 missions successfully (9 F9 1 Falcon Heavy) and the abort test will succeed. First RTF flight pushed back beyond January though, other issues will prevent more than 10 orbital launches
- An exomoon is discovered, along with at least one other planet orbiting a star in the Alpha/Proxima Centauri system
- Planet 9 not yet discovered but more progress toward finding it
- Tabby's Star mystery solved, nothing to do with aliens
- Orion and SLS continue, though SLS program likely limited in number of launches and years by Trump admin. #MissionToMars folded into #MissionToMarsByWayofMoon with a small cislunar space station the next step. SLS manifest filled with lunar facility building block missions, Europa and Mars sample return missions, lunar crewed surface missions (demo missions using smaller landers, nothing like Altair), but commercial capabilities for exploration missions planned for beyond 2030
- ARM will be repurposed into a lunar sample effort
- New NASA Administrator possibly Eileen Collins
- I will finish at least one Space model
- I will attend at least one launch in person
- TESS will launch successfully
- Red Dragon stays on track for 2018, incredibly enough
- At least one lunar X Prize mission launches toward the Moon
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 11:31 PM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline rocx

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #25 on: 12/14/2016 08:35 AM »
First time I'm participating in the predictions game. To avoid ambiguity and keep my predictions hard as steel, I only predict launch vehicle successes and failures. Ed Kyle's statistics at the end of 2017 will be my measure.

Launch vehicleSuccessesFailures
CZ (DF-5)191
Falcon 9110
R-792
Atlas V90
Ariane 580
PSLV60
Proton50
H-2A30
Electron21
Falcon Heavy20
Delta IV20
GSLV20
Antares 23020
Vega20
CZ-510
Zenit10
CZ-1110
Delta II10
Minotaur10
Pegasus XL10
Epsilon01
« Last Edit: 12/14/2016 08:36 AM by rocx »
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline Alesayr

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #26 on: 12/14/2016 10:27 AM »
SpaceX will return to flight in January, and conduct 12-14 missions this year.
Falcon Heavy will (finally) fly in March, but at least one booster will fail to land softly.
Red Dragon will slip to 2020. Manned Dragon 2 tests will slip to 2018. ITS timeframe will prove unrealistic, although estimates might not be updated till 2018.


Blue Origin will fly at least 7 test flights in 2017. They will include the first manned flights, but no tourists will be launched yet. There may however be paying customers flying scientific payloads. Pricing for a manned flight will be revealed in the second half of the year. More information will be released about the New Glenn.


Electron will launch in the first half of the year.

Virgin Galactic will continue test flights but tourists will not be flown in 2017, meaning a decade will have passed since Bransons first estimate of when tourists would fly was proven false.

Xcor will live on but remain on the backburner.

SLS will survive. Orion will probably also survive but Lockheed will be forced to find a way to cut costs. ARM will be cancelled. Trump will announce the USA will return to the moon before 2024.

OATK's proposal for a lunar orbital station will be accepted.

More information will be leaked about Chinas spaceplane program.

BE4 will be chosen as the main engine for Vulcan.

Offline jgoldader

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #27 on: 12/14/2016 01:03 PM »
I'm stressed out and in a grumpy mood today, so next year's 10 easily-graded and specific predictions are DOOOOOOMED!

1. FH demo is lost during first stage flight.
2. There are 9 F9 flights.
3. All F9 flights are successful.
3. COPVs in F9 cause another significant issue/delay *after* RTF.
4. Two Russian launches fail.
5. One Chinese launch fails.
6. An Atlas or Delta fails to place the payload in proper orbit.  (Not due to fault with payload.)
7. Another commission is appointed to study SLS and the whole exploration program.  By the end of the year, it is clear that SLS will have just a handful of flights.
8. NASA exploration focuses on a crew-tended outpost in lunar orbit or at an EML point, plus plans for a commercial LEO station.
9. JWST launch slips to 2019.
10. At least the human part of ARM is cancelled.
Recovering astronomer

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #28 on: 12/15/2016 07:07 AM »
FH will make it on to the pad but not launch (shades of F9 at the Cape in 2009).
SpaceX achieve 10 or 11 launches. Taking thing cautiously after the two failures.
More Raptor demo test firings, but still subscale.
Test ITS composite Lox tank not yet successfully demonstrated with full cryo load.

Another good year for ULA, with new commercial contracts for Atlas V and no failures to deliver a payload to required orbit.

Hard to say what the new administration will do. I could see something big and controversial affecting a big project (JWST, SLS, Orion). Anything related to climate change is at risk.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2017
« Reply #29 on: 12/15/2016 07:46 PM »
Planet nine will be discovered - Mike Brown seems increasingly confident on this.

LIGO will make more observations that will increasingly challenge what we think we know about black holes and will put a strain on some aspects of general activity.

There will be another major light dip at Tabby's star.

We will refine our ideas about Proxima b.

Russia will suffer at least one more launch incident.

BO will fly with at least one person onboard.

NASA will be refocused towards the moon.

FH will finally fly at least once.

Discoveries by Curiosity will increase the likelihood that Mars was habitable in the past. Plus there will be more methane detections.

Further evidence of water in the rest of the Solar System.

China will make its first successful cargo flight to a space station and launch another successful Moon mission.
« Last Edit: 12/15/2016 07:49 PM by Star One »

Online Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #30 on: 12/15/2016 09:50 PM »
This isn't a Space Policy thread. Some trimming... political and a couple of just silly posts were term-limited out.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #31 on: 12/15/2016 10:09 PM »
Predictions for 2017

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence. (Poll for number is open and here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
- SpaceX will recover at least 80% of the cores they attempt to recover
- FH will launch
- LC40 will return to service
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)

- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times and at least one of them will be with paying cargo

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least twice. At least one launch will be a success.

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts

« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:42 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline jacqmans

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #32 on: 12/16/2016 03:05 PM »
Space x will have another launch explosion...

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #33 on: 12/16/2016 03:48 PM »
First time I'm playing this game, I don't expect too much of it!

- Arianespace makes another perfect year of launches. First Ariane 6 deals signed for ESA/Europe
- Russia continues to slow on governemental launches, has trouble replacing old gov sats and keeping GLONASS alive.
- Russia suffers one launch failure on Soyouz, hopefully not the FG variant. Proton flies 5 times, close call on an upper stage issue.
- India set another record year and announces a new and ambitious astronautic roadmap.
- Japan flies the tinyest rocket of them all into orbit. Later in the year announces one year setback on H-3 development.
- China continue to climb its perfectly paved road to success. LM-3 "steals" 4 to 5 COMSATs contracts and everyone is envious. Chang'e 5 successful triggers the US national pride about the moon and a robotic race. We get news about the chinese beyond-LEO plans.
- RocketLab fails on first launch, is successful on 2 other attempts the same year. Gets Moon Express on the right course, but the vessel fails to reach the moon, as every other GLXP contestant except Part Time Scientists, which rover fails to achieve 500m on the surface.
- SpaceX makes us think they will play the "slow pace" for 6 month as usual, then announces something utterly inachievable in Q3. One upper stage malfunction resulting in lower orbit, but 14 F9 success, 1 reused core success and FH on the launchpad.
- ULA perfect year except for RD-180 ban on the table again. News on ACES and BE-4 is selected for vulcan.
- SLS first stage gets the most incredible ground test ever at stennis. Vibrations detected during ops delay the first flight by a year. Program is contested but shifts to the moon. Europa and Venus missions are officialized. Entire world mourns on the earth observation program.
- MOM stops operating abruptly, while opportunity still survives. Curiosity drill is definitely broken at the end of the year. Cassini brings us incredible pictures as usual and juno performs the periapsis maneuver in april.
- Blue Origin does 6 NS flights including 1 final test in january, 4 commercial payloads and one manned suborbital test end of 2017.

- Nomadd is officialy named "Boca Chica observation Superviser" by SpaceX staff.
- I'm still amazed by SpaceXflight.com or wathever site I'm paying for L2 next year.

And finally maybe I'll get enough time and money to flight to USA and get to see the Cape once in my lifetime (november, fingers crossed).

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #34 on: 12/16/2016 04:01 PM »
JMO (not including any SpaceX guesses due to the aforementioned poll)

ULA has another perfect year.
Steady progress towards SLS. Launch remains scheduled for 2018 by the end of 2017.
The Trump Administration begins to suggest a lunar direction for NASA, but generally speaking ignores NASA.
Starliner slips to NET Q2 2019.
TESS will not launch in 2017.
KIC 8462852 remains a mystery.
Planet IX isn't found, but evidence will continue to grow to suggest its existence (although the upper-mass limit may be lowered).
JWST remains on course for 2018.
Star Wars Episode VIII will be awesome!
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:03 PM by Orbiter »
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, SpaceX SES-11.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #35 on: 12/16/2016 04:38 PM »
1 - Falcon Heavy first flight will successfully happen near the end of the year.

2 - SLS/Orion lumbers through the year with some additional delays announced.

3 - Manned Dragon has already been pushed to May of 2018 so easy prediction that it will not fly in 2017.

4 - Some version of an Augustine commission convenes and recommends return to the Moon.

5 - Cis-Lunar habitat concept advances with multiple proposals but no final selection

6 - NASA proposes COTS type effort for a lunar lander - not approved yet in 2017

7 - ARM redirected to Phobos sample return

8 - No realism appears in SpaceX ITS schedule

9 - Blue Origin flies with people and announces timeline for tourist flights

10 - Virgin Galactic reaches space again and firms up their timeline for tourist flights trying to beat Blue Origin (neither will have a customer on board in 2017)

If my predictions are right on I promise not to gloat.  If they are wrong mods please delete thread so I can deny that I made them. ;)

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #36 on: 12/16/2016 04:58 PM »
SpaceX:
-11 SpaceX missions including one Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy fails on first launch.
- Test satelites for the commsat constellation program hitch a ride on a Falcon Heavy launch.
- 8 out of 11 missions have succesful landings.
- Unmanned Dragon 2 mission delayed to 2018.
- SpaceX will be quiet about ITS with new information coming out in drips over the year.

Rocket Lab:

-First flight fails.
-At least 5 flights this year including 3 test flights.

Blue Origin
-Succesful test program for BE4. It is picked for ULA's Vulcan.
- New Sheppard has the first succesful manned flights by the middle of the year
- New Sheppard has at least 8 flights in 2017.
- More details of New Glenn are unveiled.
- Plans for an additional launch site are unveiled.

Virgin Galactic

- SS2 has one powered suborbital flight by the years end. No accidents.
- LauncherOne becomes the main focus of the company.

Google X-Prize

- One attempt this year. It will fail on landing.

Russia

-Their space program detriorates further in this year and they lose two boosters.
-There is an in flight launch abort for an ISS mission.
-No one dies but it causes a change in US policy.
-Both Orion/SLS and Commercial Crew get a substantial shot in the arm, with increased budgets.
-NASA is made investigate putting Orion on an EELV.
-The use of Shenzhou for ISS flights is seriously investigated.
-ESA consider moving ExoMars to Ariane 5.

ESA

-A pretty much flawless year of missions for Arianespace and ESA.
-They gain a mission due to another country experiencing a launch failure.
-Pressure builds on Europe over the long term future of Ariane 6 due to its lack of reusability.
-Some notional programs to implement it are raised but not at the funding stage yet.
-ESA floats the Moon Village concept but will wait until the Trump space policy emerges before pushing in any particular direction.

NASA

-NASA has a year of flawless missions but will be in a state of flux due to the incoming administration.
-There will be a pivot back towards doing a Lunar mission with a mix of commercial and SLS/Orion.
-A demonstration Lunar Orbital Habitat gains funding.

Firefly

- The company winds up by the end of the year, selling its physical and intellectual assets.

China

-One launch failure
-a tremendous 2017 of firsts in the Chinese Space Program
-Tianzhou is successful
-Chang'e 5 sample return is succesful.
-In 2017, they fly the most missions of any country in the world.
-China will make moves to aqcuire space technology from sanction laden Russia such as RD-180 engines.

Skylon/Britain

-Reaction Engines get a boost from the British Government to develop Sabre. 
-The Brexit pushes the UK into using spaceflight as a nationalistic symbol of their capability on the global stage. -Efforts are ramped up to develop a space port.

Iran

-They have a single successful launch.
-Work on a booster in the same capability range as Vega begins
-Plans for a Soyuz class booster in the late 2020s begin

Turkey
-Turkey begins efforts to develop independent access to space similar to Israel.

Japan
A succesful year with no failures.
-Japan waits for the outcome of the NASA transition before realigning its space policy.

ULA
-ULA picks BE4 for Vulcan.
-They push hard for distributed launch in 2017 as a solution for a Moon program.
-ACES engine remains undecided but
-The idea of converting ACES/Centaur into a Moon lander is floated.
-They pick up an additional Atlas V launch due to someone else having a failure.




« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:59 PM by Darkseraph »
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Starlab90

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #37 on: 12/16/2016 05:14 PM »
This is a fun thread, so I'll take a shot at a few predictions:

1. The net result of all the recent launch failure investigations and subsequent corrections will be that there will be no launch failures in 2017.

2. SpaceX will launch more Falcon 9s in 2017 than in any previous calendar year.

3. SpaceX will launch their first Falcon Heavy in 2017.

4. Under the capable leadership of Mike Moses, Virgin Galactic will make solid progress with Spaceship 2 flight testing. By the end of the year, they will conduct powered flight tests less than 2 weeks apart.

5. One of the things Virgin Galactic will learn from their successful tests in 2017 is that Spaceship 2 will not be ready to carry passengers on suborbital flights before the end of 2018.

6. Blue Origin will pleasantly surprise us with the progress they make doing whatever it is they are going to do.

7. At the end of 2017, SLS Core Stage 1 will still be at MAF, with at least a couple more months of work to be done on it before it can be shipped to Stennis.

8. KSC will install at least one of the EM-1 aft booster segments on the Mobile Launcher by the end of 2017.

9. SpaceX won't be able to find enough money to develop ITS.

10. NASA will fund a small contract with SpaceX to study the feasibility of adding SpaceX boosters or other components on SLS in order to reduce SLS costs.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #38 on: 12/17/2016 01:34 AM »
- NASA BRAC-style consolidation will happen. Ames, Glenn will be done

- NASA budget will be chopped by cutting Earth Sciences and Space Technology out completely

- Bridenstine will become NASA admin

- ITAR will get worse with new restrictions

- JWST will be cancelled

- Space industry growth will remain at less than 4%

- Cubesats will continue be fastest growing industry segment and keep representing less than 1% total value of all launches

- Comsat orders will decline further vs 2016

- China will win more than 2 major commercial satellite/launch order bundles

- At least two major launch mishaps

- One new smallsat launcher becomes operational, not in US

- State of the art in deep space chemical propulsion will remain pressure-fed hypergolic, hydrazine biprops for about 50 years now

- Less than 80 launches, 14 for Arianespace
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline Danderman

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #39 on: 12/19/2016 03:55 AM »

- State of the art in deep space chemical propulsion will remain pressure-fed hypergolic, hydrazine biprops for about 50 years now



I hear they are using some sort of electric propulsion using exotic propellants for some deep space missions. Very high ISP. This could be the dawn of a new era.

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #40 on: 12/19/2016 07:31 PM »
1. Though lots of chatter & under review, SLS & Orion not yet cancelled by 2017 end
2. ARM cancelled
3. FH finally flies!  but in the 2nd half of 2017
4. F9 has no launch (or static test) RUDs + greatly increased launch cadence
5. Recovered coreS make F9 flightS
6. Physics & astrophysics place further constraints on what constitutes Dark Matter; cracks widen in DM theory
7. No readily verifiable demo of any EM drive
8. No SETI signal received
9. BO makes additional flights, but no crewed flights in 2017
10. JWST continues per schedule
11. No exo-moons detected
12. No Google Lunar prize winner
13. No Planet 9 discovery
14. Virgin Galactic makes a powered test flight
15. ITER continues to suck up money
ADDED
16. SpaceX reveals their space suit design

« Last Edit: 12/20/2016 04:23 PM by philw1776 »
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

Offline Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #41 on: 12/23/2016 12:54 PM »
US
* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year
* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches
* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year
* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article
* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan
* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development
* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced
* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017
* ULA announces at least one commercial contract

European
* Arianespace have no launch failures
* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed
* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plans


Russia
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2017
* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year
* Proton has no complete failures

China
* China has one launch failure in 2017, without major effect
* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is successful
* The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year
* KZ-11 flies successfully

International
* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully
* The Indian crewed program is formally authorised
* India has more launches than in any previous year, again
* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight
* All VEX launches are successful
* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start
* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attempt

Misc
* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105
* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface
* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern
* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 02:27 PM by Kryten »

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #42 on: 12/23/2016 01:59 PM »
US
* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year
* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches
* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year
* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article
* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan
* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development
* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced
* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017
* ULA announces at least one commercial contract

European
* Arianespace have no launch failures
* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed
* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plans


Russia
* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2016
* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year
* Proton has no complete failures

China
* China has one launch failure in 2016, without major effect
* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is succesful
* The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year
* KZ-11 flies successfully

International
* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully
* The Indian crewed program is formally authorised
* India has more launches than in any previous year, again
* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight
* All VEX launches are successful
* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start
* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attempt

Misc
* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105
* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface
* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern
* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline Kryten

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #43 on: 12/23/2016 02:29 PM »
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
Thanks for pointing that out. It always takes me a while to mentally adjust when the year changes.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #44 on: 12/31/2016 12:13 PM »
1.  The FY2017 and FY2018 budgets will be kind to Orion/SLS.

2.  Despite the avowed small-government principles of the Freedom Caucus (which, as far as I can tell, is the nearest thing there is to a successor to the Tea Party), not one Caucus member will question the government's need for Orion/SLS.

3.  Despite the Caucus's pro-private-enterprise stance, not one member will suggest considering a commercially managed alternative to Orion/SLS, if indeed such capability is needed.

4.  Multiple members of the Caucus will be among the loudest supporters of Orion/SLS.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #45 on: 12/31/2016 04:09 PM »
2017 will be the last year before things really start to change in spaceflight. As such it will be much like the last few years, but with hints of what is to come.

There will be more launches than for many years, partly because of SpaceX catching up on their backlog, partly because of more launches from China and India. The launch rate will really take off in 2018, due to the LEO constellations.

There will be a slight shift from GTO to LEO, driven by test launches for the LEO constellations, increased activity at ISS and more Chinese activity in LEO. This will become more pronounced in future years, with the bulk of launches, payloads and tonnage going to LEO. GEO will become relatively less important commercially (even though it will grow in absolute terms).

The number of satellites will grow, driven by cubesats in LEO.  In future years the number of LEO satellites will explode.

Experience with cubesats will encourage some groups to produce more complex smallsats (30-300 kg). The number and variety of organisations (companies, universities, countries) producing satellites will grow.

There will be continued downward price pressure on launch contracts. This will not become acute until 2018 due to the SpaceX backlog. No launch company in the world will make an overall profit, some will make an operating profit (e.g. SpaceX and ULA) but will need more than that to cover expansion and R&D. Profitless growth in the launch business will continue for some years.

There will be a relative shift to in-space elements (satellites, probes, habs, etc.), partly because that is where the profits lie, partly because of availability of cheap launches for a variety of payload classes.

The total space market will continue to grow rapidly, partly due to new services partly due to continued expansion of existing services to new markets and Asia, African and South America.

As for the past decade or two goods and services enabled by satellites will be the major element of the space economy and this is set to grow as a proportion of the total space market.

Not much will change at NASA, SLS and Orion will continue. There will be a lot of change in NASA in 2018 and 2019. The other space agencies will also go through a lot of churn in those years. There will be a lot of emphasis on private companies as national champions for both launch and in-space elements.

The probable loss of ISS in 2024 will start to become an issue, serious proposals for what to replace it with will start to appear, these will not be firmed up until 2018 or later. A combination of cheap launch, commercial crew and cargo craft, and national pride/competition will lead to several LEO stations replacing ISS, perhaps general do everything stations from China, India and Russia and a selection of special purpose stations from USA, Europe and Japan.

The joker in the pack is ITS. It is not ready to be played in 2017, but just knowing that it is in SpaceX's hand could cause major (and unpredictable) changes in direction from other actors, particularly if SpaceX are seen to be making good progress. An order of magnitude increase in payload and two orders of magnitude reduction in cost ($/kg to orbit), is such a step change in capability that it will change the whole industry (even if all the gains are not realized initially).

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #46 on: 01/01/2017 12:20 PM »
30% chance of another F9 failure.
10% chance of ULA failure.
SpaceX at least equals ULA for launch rate, 60% chance.
US launches more than any other country.
At least 90 global launches.
Falcon Heavy launches.
Reused booster(s) launch.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #47 on: 01/01/2017 02:34 PM »
Side note here.

SpaceX has like 2 dozen launches planned for 2017 (or so). I think they could get 15, if things don't go wrong. ULA also may do 15. OrbitalATK has at least 5 launches planned for 2017, though they might only get 4.

There could be 35 US launches this year, compared to 22 in 2016, which also was at least as much as anyone else. That's impressive, and is the result of 3 major launch companies, I'm not counting Rocketlabs (if you consider them US), Virgin, later Blue Origin and others. The US launch industry is starting to look very robust.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #48 on: 01/03/2017 07:39 PM »
OK here's my attempt at predictions for 2017:


1. SpaceX reaches 10 or more launches (the thinking goes that as they plug past failures, the system will become more reliable).

2. SpaceX suffers another failure with F9 around Q4 2017.

3. Falcon Heavy launches in Q4 2017.

4. Cannae's experimental satellite featuring EMDrive propulsion technology launches in 2017.

5. Cannae's proprietary EMDrive technology proves to work in the vacuum of space finally putting to rest the skepticism about the technology.

6. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to *LEO and returns it safely in Q2 2017.

    * CORRECTION: BO rocket to sub-orbit - not LEO

7. 12 years after its inception, Virgin Galactic is still not able to conduct a manned sub-orbital test flight in 2017.

8. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.

9. in 2017 no one is still able to figure out what's causing Tabby's Star's strange dips in brightness. The mystery continues.

10. Roger Sawyer is nominated for Nobel in Physics for EMDrive technology (even though the scientific community is not on the same page about how the drive actually works.)

11. Donald Trump defunds NASA's earth Science. There is an exodus of earth scientists at NASA.

12. SpaceX unveils it's spacesuit in 2017.

13. SpaceX unveils a mockup, and more details about ITS in 2017.

« Last Edit: 01/09/2017 02:21 PM by moreno7798 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #49 on: 01/03/2017 08:13 PM »
You mean Blue Origin to space, not LEO. It'd be suborbital.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Jarnis

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #50 on: 01/03/2017 08:14 PM »
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.

Swing and a miss.

They maybe have full scale engine at the test stand in January-February.

From that to a booster, let alone a manned one, takes a bit more than an year. More like 3-4 years.

But yeah, they may fly people to space this year. With New Shepard (suborbital).

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #51 on: 01/03/2017 08:19 PM »
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.

I stand corrected. I meant to say they fly their rollercoaster ride to space and back.

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #52 on: 01/03/2017 08:45 PM »
6. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.

JWST has sufficient slack in its schedule that this very unlikely to happen.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #53 on: 01/03/2017 08:52 PM »
The point of this thread isn't to argue. But to provide a record of predictions.

I was just trying to clarify what I (correctly) thought was a mistake, not argue about a prediction. :)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #54 on: 01/07/2017 01:50 PM »
I think we'll see an opening for nuclear space. As in nuclear electric power for spacecrafts and space habitats. As well as for nuclear electric ion propulsion and nuclear thermal propulsion.

I think there's so much pent-up space nuclear demand, and that the new administration doesn't have any incentive to keep it on hold any longer. It would be a big boom for space flight and doing more for less seems to be something most in the new WH agree with is a good thing. That is a radical change in spirit. The obstacle has been foreign nuclear powers and the environmental movement. I think the new WH will be proud to defy both of them!
« Last Edit: 01/07/2017 01:52 PM by TakeOff »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #55 on: 01/08/2017 12:01 PM »
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?
For example:
   There'll be X launches this year
   Company X will experience a failure with rocket B
   Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction.
   SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO
   SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a prediction

Another example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.

Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few years

Now for the snark....

A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction  ;D (I hope that's wrong BTW)

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #56 on: 01/08/2017 12:22 PM »
No Falcon 9 will lose payload during 2017.
I think that the rocket now has evolved to near maximum capacity with smaller risks going forward. I'll allow a gray zone for partially failed orbital insertions. If the fueling testing problem is repeated, it will be without payload mounted.


I'd also predict that no Atlas V and no Ariane 5 will lose any payload during 2017, but that looks like a much more safer bet.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2017 12:23 PM by TakeOff »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #57 on: 01/08/2017 04:05 PM »
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?
For example:
   There'll be X launches this year
   Company X will experience a failure with rocket B
   Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction.
   SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO
   SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a prediction

Another example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.

Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few years

Now for the snark....

A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction  ;D (I hope that's wrong BTW)

Sadly, some people did think that was snarky and offensive. How about sticking to your own predictions and worry less about other people's ;)

#BeExcellentToEachOther

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #58 on: 01/09/2017 09:00 AM »
OK thank you Chris. My apologies to those I offended. No excuses sorry
« Last Edit: 01/09/2017 09:41 AM by vapour_nudge »

Online Norm38

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #59 on: 05/08/2017 12:36 PM »
X37 lands in June

Just landed yesterday, May 7th.  Isn't there an X37-B thread?  Searching for it I didn't find much, this looked like the best place to post.


Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #60 on: 09/04/2017 04:32 AM »
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:

Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com
100 successful orbital launches worldwide
10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIO
Elon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systems
No launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)
X37 lands in June
Another X37 launches before EOY
Trump funds an outer planets mission
Dismal performance pertaining to my predictions

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