Author Topic: POLL? Number of Pads from which SpaceX conducts Orbital Launches in 2017  (Read 2174 times)

Offline sdsds

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Sorry I have no clue how to set up a poll. But it would be nice to have one asking,

"From how many distinct pads will SpaceX attempt orbital launches in 2017 (UTC)?" For the purpose of this question an orbital launch attempt occurs when a vehicle, the payload of which is intended to reach orbit, irrevocably leaves the launch pad.

Response options would include: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or more.
« Last Edit: 06/25/2016 07:04 AM by sdsds »
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Offline gongora

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They're only going to have 3 pads in 2017 (assuming nothing goes massively wrong with setting up 39A).

Offline sdsds

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They're only going to have 3 pads in 2017 (assuming nothing goes massively wrong with setting up 39A).

So if there were a poll that included "3" as an option, would that still be your choice?
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Offline gongora

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They're only going to have 3 pads in 2017 (assuming nothing goes massively wrong with setting up 39A).

So if there were a poll that included "3" as an option, would that still be your choice?

I wouldn't make a choice in the poll because I wouldn't think the poll was worth responding to.  If you're choosing anything but 3 in that poll then you're just betting they won't launch from 39A in 2017.  In that case, why not just make a poll asking if people think SpaceX will launch from 39A in 2017?

Offline Zed_Noir

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There is always the possibility of a few mobile maritime launch platforms. Not necessary in 2017, maybe later if SpaceX is thinking of launching the BFR at sea.

Offline Lar

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if they do a flyback test from an ASDS that would be another launch point. Technically more than one if they do it more than once, each one would be from slightly different lat/long coordinates. Doubt this happens next year though.

So I'm dubious on this poll's value, I think we know it all already.
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Offline sdsds

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Thanks Lar. I understand there would be little value gained from a discussion of those futures where the correct answer ended up being 0 or 1. (And those discussions might place an unreasonable demand on the time and patience of moderators.) And SpaceX is clearly not even hinting that 3 might be in their plans.

Yet in my view, at least, 0 and 1 have small but non-negligible likelihoods of being the correct prediction. I would say the same for Antares, Atlas, and Delta. Just not Proton. There's no chance Proton will launch from zero pads in 2017.

;)
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Offline sdsds

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Perhaps enough time has passed to ask if everyone who responded to this query still feels their prior response exactly matches how they now feel?
« Last Edit: 12/13/2016 09:05 AM by sdsds »
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Offline whitelancer64

Perhaps enough time has passed to ask if everyone who responded to this query still feels their prior response exactly matches how they now feel?

The variable has shifted, but the problem with the question remains the same - barring a catostropic launch failure, SpaceX will be launching from both KSC and Vandy.

The only question now is whether or not SLC-40 will be repaired and operational again by the end of 2017, which could be an interesting Yes / No poll to do.
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Offline Lar

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We have a lot of polls here. It seems to be something a significant fraction of the membership enjoys. Some other folks laugh at how many we have.

Setting up polls is not hard. Just press the Add Poll button, fill in the title, the choices, (add more if you need to) and set the parameters (end date is strongly suggested, as is "don't show results until after voted" but not "don't show results until poll is over")

I'm still not sure I see the value of this one but if someone wants to create it? Go for it.  Personally I think it's more interesting to get to which pads rather than just the number, which takes a bit more work in setting up choices.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

I say 2. Vandy and 39a. I think slc40 is going to take more time than they thought

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