Poll

How many already flown (substantially intact) SpaceX 1st stages from F9/FH stored on 12/31/16

zero, I don't believe they even landed one, it was a hoax!
2 (1.8%)
one - the stage they landed and plan to install in front of SpaceX HQ in Hawthorne CA
0 (0%)
two - they are going to wreck or lose at least one stage by then
2 (1.8%)
three - they have three and that's where it will stay
3 (2.7%)
four - more success
5 (4.4%)
five - even more success
14 (12.4%)
six or more (they need a really big hangar)
87 (77%)

Total Members Voted: 113

Voting closed: 06/08/2016 05:57 PM


Author Topic: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016  (Read 3243 times)

Offline CraigLieb

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Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« on: 05/09/2016 05:57 PM »
Given Elon's comments about how possibly needing more space to store recovered stages, I wonder about just how much space he might be needing..

This poll measures your opinion on the question:
How many used (already launched and recovered) stages will be in inventory (on the ground) New Year's eve 2016
(let's say 11:59:59 PM to be specific in case they have a relaunch on that date that fails) as the clock turns over to 2017.

Notes:
 If a stage is re-flown and not recovered (lost, crashed,  kaboomy goodness, sent to Mars as payload on top of a FH etc.) it won't be in current inventory.

Further, if the stage is dismantled substantially due to destructive testing say firing until it explodes at McGreggor, or purposely destroyed by cutting big holes in it to examine material fatigue, it doesn't count. 

Also, lets agree to count the 1st recovered stage even if it is un-flyable and mounted on a stand, just because. That means conspiracy theorists will be the only ones voting zero this time.
« Last Edit: 05/09/2016 05:58 PM by CraigLieb »
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Online RDMM2081

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #1 on: 05/09/2016 06:13 PM »
3 current stages, I believe two more CRS(9&10)missions will fly this year and both will successfully RTLS.  Thaicom 8 looks ripe for a high margin DPL which brings us to a total of 6 (my vote).

I also think SES may be interested in negotiating SES 10 to a slightly lower orbit for a lower price on the potential reflight which could increase the margins on a GTO flight and put them up to seven cores.

But I also think they will test at least one stage to failure, or implement some destructive testing protocols to look at metal fatigue etc, which will put them right back to 6 cores intact on ground for New Years Eve.

John Alan posted in another thread that he thinks some upcoming GTO flights might start switching to expendable and providing extra performance to customers, and I think that is a really likely scenario for some of the big 5500kg birds.  There is only so much to be learned from a returned core, and then those lessons may need to be implemented into the production line to start seeing a benefit for actual reflight.

Offline John Alan

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #2 on: 05/09/2016 06:13 PM »
I voted 6 in storage... although I believe these early catches will be parted out at some point and scrapped...
They need a few design iterations till they get their rapidly reusable hardware in flight... my opinion...
Strip key parts like engines and avionics... crush the rest as scrap... sad but true my opinion...  ;)

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #3 on: 05/09/2016 06:13 PM »
and maybe I should have binned it more at the high end...
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #4 on: 05/09/2016 06:47 PM »
I'm cautiously optimistic about how long it will take SpaceX to get from having landed stages to being able to reliably refly them time and again. But I'd be really surprised if they didn't get back several more cores intact this year. I'm pretty confident they'll recover most of their RTLS attempts (at least 80%, and likely >90%). We still don't have a lot of data on ASDS recovery probabilities yet, but landing two in a row did make me adjust my priors a bit.

Basically I think they're going to try for recovery on most flights, I'm pretty sure they'll get at least another 7 flights this year, and I think their odds of recovery are pretty reasonable. If I had to guess an exact number, I'd say at least 8 "intact" recoveries by the end of the year.

~Jon

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #5 on: 05/09/2016 07:37 PM »
In between these two polls I suppose is another, which is how many hot fires of the recovered stages will occur.

(Don't find the inventory quite so interesting when it seems there's no re-qualification underway. There's a big difference between "likely for reuse" stages that should be inventoried, and flight test articles for analysis that don't matter for reflight.)

They've got three stages to work with, but only one hotfire, and that at 40 not 39A.

1.What's the holdup on 39A?
2.Why are the first recovered stages not being refired? Because of (1)?

add:
Subtle point here was about making useful polls. Most aren't. Apparently was too subtle. Try again:

Inventory is about what you can use/reuse, e.g. application. Flight test articles aren't inventory.

To enter inventory here you'd need to qualify the stage (Musk said multiple refires). Thus "not inventory".

Direct enough?
« Last Edit: 05/10/2016 04:26 PM by Space Ghost 1962 »

Offline nadreck

Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #6 on: 05/09/2016 07:51 PM »
Back when we were polled for the number of launches in 2016 I said 18, when we were polled for the number of cores recovered I said 6 (with a note that I expected that to be 6 successes out of 10 attempts to recover a core). Right now I picked 6 or more, but I am thinking it will be more - possibly as many as 9 or 10.  I am encouraged by the success to date this year.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline deadman719

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #7 on: 05/09/2016 10:56 PM »
I voted for 6 or more. Considering three cores have been recovered, one of which was unexpected, it's my opinion that 7 cores will be recovered during the year. I think the first and third cores will be thoroughly disassembled to determine wear and tear since they had different return profiles. Non-destructive inspections can be used to inspect for fatigue/stress cracks in lieu of destructive tests. Additionally, the 10 static fires planned for the second core will, by nature of the tests, provide fatigue and stress data associated with thermal cycles.

That being said...i'll probably be proved wrong!

Offline Lar

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #8 on: 05/10/2016 04:06 AM »
Do we need a poll on how many polls exactly need to be started before we've beat this entire topic to death from ever possible angle?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline llanitedave

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #9 on: 05/10/2016 10:08 PM »
Do we need a poll on how many polls exactly need to be started before we've beat this entire topic to death from ever possible angle?


5
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #10 on: 05/11/2016 02:30 AM »
Do we need a poll on how many polls exactly need to be started before we've beat this entire topic to death from ever possible angle?


5

I vote for 6 or more polls.  ::)
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Offline wes_wilson

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #11 on: 05/11/2016 08:05 PM »
Polls are fun!

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

54% of NSF'ers thought SpaceX would fly 12 or less flights this year.  To get the number of cores everyone's suggesting in this poll we're either betting on a very high landing success rate OR people are now thinking there are going to be well more than 12 flights.   

« Last Edit: 05/11/2016 08:06 PM by wes_wilson »
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #12 on: 05/12/2016 12:04 AM »
Polls are fun!

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

54% of NSF'ers thought SpaceX would fly 12 or less flights this year.  To get the number of cores everyone's suggesting in this poll we're either betting on a very high landing success rate OR people are now thinking there are going to be well more than 12 flights.
1) ms Shotwell's comments change the calculus a little. 18 including a heavy is 20 stages.
Quote
"http:/Peter B. de Selding @pbdes
SpaceX's Shotwell: We'll do 18 launches this yr and 30-50% more than that in 2017.#satellite2016

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/707681086143401985

And 2) we are already at inventory of 3 so we are saying keep the ones we have, don't wreck them and get 3 more by December . Why is that so hard?
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Offline kch

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #13 on: 05/12/2016 12:26 AM »
Do we need a poll on how many polls exactly need to be started before we've beat this entire topic to death from ever possible angle?

Forty-two.  ;)

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #14 on: 05/13/2016 07:00 PM »
I suspect that they may lose a couple more, due to unforeseen circumstances, but, overall, I think that they have a pretty good handle on this.

     However; I would be REALLY amazed if they are able to recover all three first stages from the Falcon Heavy test flight later this year!
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #15 on: 08/25/2016 04:05 PM »
Any guesses on the high side?
10? 12?
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #16 on: 12/12/2016 06:56 PM »
Looks like we have 5 in inventory and nothing is going to change until end of year.

1) OrbCom OG2 (now on permanent display, but we said it counts),
2) CRS-8 (see you next year as SES-10)
3) Thiacom-8 (see you next year hopefully as a FH side-booster), 
4) CRS-9,
5) JSat-16.

Not counting:  JSat-14 (the crispy 1st GTO return, re-fired at McGregor 8/10 times)
said to be dedicated to be a test article now and not re-fly, so I think this is out of inventory.

FYI: Not planning on repeating this poll.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2016 07:03 PM by CraigLieb »
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Offline Lar

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Re: Inventory on Dec 31, 2016
« Reply #17 on: 12/12/2016 07:29 PM »
FYI: Not planning on repeating this poll.

Too bad, I kind of liked it even if I missed voting in it.  I think there's value in it. Not enough to add it to the two I already do though. But I hope you do... .and take the upper end bins higher...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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