Poll

When will an F9 first stage be re-used on an orbital mission for a paying customer & mission is a success?

June 2016
2 (1.4%)
July 2016
15 (10.5%)
August 2016
26 (18.2%)
September 2016
26 (18.2%)
October 2016
20 (14%)
November 2016
11 (7.7%)
December 2016
6 (4.2%)
Q1 2017
25 (17.5%)
Q2 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q3 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q4 2017
1 (0.7%)
H1 2018
0 (0%)
H2 2018
0 (0%)
2019 or later
1 (0.7%)
Never!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 143

Voting closed: 05/14/2016 09:25 AM


Author Topic: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?  (Read 9576 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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The next big reusability step is to, er, actually re-use something!

I'm not interested in any SpaceX test flights with a re-used booster, there needs to be a paying customer. Also the payload must be put into the intended orbit by SpaceX. However, it doesn't matter whether or not the re-used booster is again recovered.

Having to keep the poll open only for a little while in case SpaceX makes any announcement soon.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 09:27 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline Chalmer

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I dont think they will be able to re-launch a landed stage this year (with a costumer). They simply have so many launches to launch and finish crew dragon, that i dont think there is time. I hope I am wrong though.

I do think there is a better chance of seeing a test flight this year, and then a revenue generating one next year.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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I'm feeling optimistic and voted October. I think SES will go for it and agree a deal to re-use a booster for one of their launches scheduled later this year.

Offline nicp

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I voted September because Elon said June I think (add a little delay..).
I wonder if they will re-use an engine before an entire stage - but perhaps that would prove nothing (and provide no new data) given the number of test firings and so on the engines already do.
Where's my Guinness?

Online hamerad

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Voted August, usually would give more time slip to due elongated time but he has said he is trying to recalibrate his estimates.

As for the engine reuse, are we 100% sure that they haven't already reused an engine? after all their were a few missing from the Orbcomm stage when we last saw a photo of it. 

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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I voted September because I miss-clicked like an ass.  I wanted to say June.

I think they're actually starting to get their timescales down and it's deceptive to assume they'll be constantly pushing to the right with anything other than crew dragon.
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Offline Space Lizard

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?
I watch rockets

Offline redliox

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November here; so far it looks promising although there may be a flight delay or extra one to test procedures.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

Yes, certainly makes sense. Of course such a flight is still some way of and I think SpaceX won't want yo wait that long. They clearly won't re-fly unless they are very confident, but if they are confident then they'll look for a customer. If they can't find one for a first re-use then inflight abort might be a good demonstration flight to increase customer confidence, but all indications so far seem to be that there is customer interest. I think the issue will be how much the discount is for the first re-use!

IIRC correctly SES said they'd want half price? If I was SpaceX I'd take that offer. A successful re-use must go a long way to start persuading other customers to get on-board.

Offline atomic

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I voted september 2016 to get a nice symmetrical distribution.

Online Lar

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They're saying June. I applied an optimistic amount of time dilation and got September, then applied fan boy logic (one of my core competencies, just ask Jim) to get August.
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Offline nadreck

I voted September to be consistent with my vote in the other related poll suggesting that the first core to be reflown would be CRS-9. As well, I am pretty certain their is currently a September scheduled launch that involves a customer who really wants to be the first (SES-10).
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Mader Levap

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Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.
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Offline alang

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Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Surely the insurance companies will influence this. Is the risk associated with the first flight uninsurable?

SES claimed that their insurers said they would be guided by whether SES were comfortable with re-use. So SES didn't expect insurance to be a big issue.

Online CraigLieb

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One year later than Elon says is a fair guess... 2nd Q 2017
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Offline philw1776

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Voted Q1 2017. No one yet lost bet on SpaceX being late.

Smart money!
“When it looks more like an alien dreadnought, that’s when you know you’ve won.”

Offline Toast

For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines. Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?

Offline RDMM2081

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If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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If a re-used core were used for the in flight abort test, would that count as a paying customer? It is a contract milestone paid for by NASA...

But it's not orbital I'm afraid!

Offline Kansan52

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines. Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?

Haven't heard anything to change from the three engine core.

Offline Poole Amateur

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I voted Q2 2017. Pure fan boy that I am, I would rather they really study the returned stages to optimise reliability and concentrate on getting the manifest backlog sorted. A re-flight in 12 months will still be an impressive achievement, but a bunch of on time and flawless flights, with a load of returned cores will to my mind be even more impressive. Still a load of stuff to get excited about...Falcon Heavy, Dragonfly and Dragon 2...I can wait a little while for a successful re-flight :)

Offline llanitedave

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It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
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Online vapour_nudge

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It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
Yes, it was so tempting to vote never just to prove you wrong but I'm not THAT heartless or snarky 😇
« Last Edit: 05/11/2016 10:55 PM by vapour_nudge »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Thank you all for joining in the poll. A good spread of opinions, although all believe SpaceX are going to be successful and the great majority think in the next 12 months. Can't wait!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Cross-posting as very relevant to this poll:

Tweet from Elon today stating that SpaceX still intends to refly F9-0023-S1 this summer:

Quote
Elon Musk @elonmusk
3:03 PM - 14 May 2016

@r_SpaceX @reddit will do another AMA just before reflight of the rocket in a few months

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Update on SpaceX's plans for booster re-use:

Quote
SpaceX: We'll be meeting w/ insurance underwriters in coming weeks to walk them through our reusable-stage certification process.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208

Quote
SpaceX: Reused stage to fly, likely on commercial mission, by end of year. We've been approached by couple of customers who want to be 1st.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737447211009613824

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480

Offline MattMason

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If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480

That matches up not only with the possibility of use for the SES-10 commercial sat launch, penned in for September, but possibly launching from LC-39A.
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Offline the_other_Doug

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Well, I voted back when the poll was first posted, and I voted for October of this year.  For what specific reason, I don't recall.  But whatever it was, I bet I'm close...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Cross posting, looking good for this year:

Not sure where to post this:

Quote
Shotwell: “a lot of interest” from customers on flying on reused Falcon 9. May fly two of them this year. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763060451680722944

Offline Kaputnik

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Waiting for joy and raptor

Online CraigLieb

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Colonize Mars!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Now tentatively January, presumably provided F9 RTF is by end of this year:

Quote
SES: Based on SpaceX’s return-to-flight plans, we expect SES-10 to launch on reused Falcon 9 in January. Payload for next Falcon 9 still TBD

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791914581065019392

Edit: report of same SES remarks by Peter B. de Selding

Quote
SES(6): CFO says SES-10 tentatively set for January launch on SpaceX Falcon 9. (This mission will inaugurate reuse of Falcon 9 1st stage.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/791915233677758465

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Now the RTF is successfully achieved :D time to return thoughts to when first booster re-use might be:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2h2 hours ago
@SES_Satellites still intends SES-10 (5,300kg/GTO) as 1st @SpaceX mission using previously flown Falcon 9 1st stage. Planned Q1 launch.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/820971443605434368

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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SES-10 is still down for Mar 27th but as Chris says a big ask.

So those of you how picked Q1 2017 may yet be right; otherwise I suspect Q2 might sneak it.

I'm discounting SES-10 launch failing. SpaceX are not going to launch unless they are very confident.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Well congratulations to SpaceX, SES and all those of you who picked Q1 2017. You had a whole day spare!

I don't think we'll have to wait too long before another booster is successfully re-used  :D

Offline Kaputnik

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I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Comga

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I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

My opinion, and it is only that, is that it's less about who was right but what the consensus was.
The peak of the distribution was 3-4 months out.
The reality was about 10 months, 2 or 3 times the consensus.
That's just what happens with a failure. 
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Yes without the failure I think SES-10 would have been October or November. That's a bit later than the distribution peak, which I think means insufficient allowance was made for Elon time dilation.

I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

The prize for being correct is, as usual, bragging rights - which I see you've already claimed  :D

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