Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 226315 times)

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #20 on: 05/06/2016 04:36 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.

Sorry, forgot to reply to this one:  schaban has it right.  Just waiting to find out about RTLS vs JRTI on the west coast.

Edit/gongora: Below is a backup of starhawk92's table format from June 21, 2017

Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

List of past launches can be found here

Launch Windows, if known, are in the footnotes.

NET DATE    LV  REUSE     ID    RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  --  -----   ------  ----  -----------------------       ---  ------  -----
2016-05-06  F9   24             OCIS  JCSAT-14 [4]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-05-27  F9   25      B1023  OCIS  Thaicom 8 [5]                 GTO  3100    LC40
2016-06-15  F9   26             OCIS  Eutelsat 117 West B [6] &     GTO  1960    LC40
                                      ABS-2A [6]                         2240
2016-07-18  F9   27             RTLS  Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-08-14  F9   28             OCIS  JCSAT-16 [8]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-09-03  F9   29             PAD   AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40
2017-01-14  F9   30      B1029  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-02-19  F9   31      B1031  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-10) [16]          LEO  10000   LC39A
2017-03-16  F9   32     1030    EXPD  Echostar 23 [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-03-30  F9   23-1   1021.2  OCIS  SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
2017-05-01  F9   33     1032    RTLS  NROL-76 [18]                  LEO          LC39A
2017-05-15  F9          1034    EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4 [21]            GTO  6086    LC39A
2017-06-03  F9          1035    RTLS  Dragon (CRS-11) [20]          LEO  10000   LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-06-23  F9          1029.2  OCIS  BulgariaSat-1 [22]            GTO  3669    LC39A
2017-06-25  F9          1036    JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) [19]  PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-07     F9                  EXPD  Intelsat 35e [17]             GTO  ~6000   LC39A       
2017-07     F9                        Formosat-5   [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
2017-07     F9                  OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 [15]      GTO  5400    LC39A
2017-08-01  F9                  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-12)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-08     F9                  OCIS  Air Force X-37B OTV-5         LEO  5400    KSC/CC   
2017-08-24  F9                  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)       PLR  860x10  LC4E       
2017-09     F9                  OCIS  Koreasat 5A                   GTO  3500    LC39A
2017        FH       (C)        OCIS  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
                25-1 (B) B1023  RTLS
                     (B)        RTLS
2017-10     F9                        SES-16/GovSat                 GTO  4000    LC39A
2017-10     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-10     F9                        PAZ                           PLR  1350    LC4E
2017-10     F9                        SAOCOM 1A                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2017-11     F9                        Dragon (CRS-13)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017        FH                        US Air Force (STP-2)          MEO          LC39A
2017-12     F9                        SES-14 / GOLD                 GTO  4200    LC40
2017-12     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2017-12     F9                  RTLS  Bangabandhu-1                 GTO  ~3500   LC40       
2017-12     F9                        Hispasat 1f                   GTO  ~5000   LC40
2018-01     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-A             SSO          LC4E
2018-01     F9                  OCIS  Es’hail 2                     GTO  ~3k     LC40
2018-01     F9                        PSN VI  + US Govt             GTO  5000    LC40
2018-02     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2018-02     F9                        Dragon (CRS-14)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-03     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM1                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2018-03-20  F9                        NASA (TESS)                   HEO  325     LC40
2018-04     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)       PLR  860x10  LC4E
2018-04     F9                        Dragon (CRS-15)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                        CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test      SUB          LC39A
2018-05     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM2                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2018-05     F9                        USAF GPS III A-2              MEO  3680    LC40
2018-06     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 8) &     PLR  860x5   LC4E
                                      GRACE-FO
2018-06     F9                        Telkom 4                      GTO  ?       ?
2018-07     F9                        Spaceflight GTO-1             GTO  ?       ?
2018-07     F9                        Spaceflight GTO-2             GTO  ?       ?
2018-08     F9                        Dragon (CRS-16)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-10     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-B             SSO  ?       LC4E
2018-10     F9                        GiSAT-1                       GTO          LC40
2018-10     F                         Lunar Dragon                  TLI  10000   LC39A
2018-10     F9                        Dragon (CRS-17)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-12     F9                        Dragon (CRS-18)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                        Telstar 18 Vantage /          GTO  >5400   ?
                                      Apstar-5C
2018        F9                        Telstar 19 Vantage            GTO  >5400   ?
2018        FH                        Arabsat 6A                    GTO          LC39A
2018        F9                        RADARSAT Constellation        SSO  1400    LC4E
2018        F9                        OHB SARah 1                   SSO  ~2100   LC4E
2018        F9                        SAOCOM 1B                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2019-02     F9                        GPS III A-3                   MEO  3680    LC40
2019-05     F9                        Dragon (CRS-19)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019-07     F9                        Spaceflight SSO-C             SSO  ?       LC4E
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        Dragon (CRS-20)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                        OHB SARah 2/3                 SSO  ~1800x2 LC4E
2020        F9                        Spaceflight SSO-D             SSO  ?       LC4E
2020        F9                        Spaceflight GTO-C             GTO  ?       ?
2020        F9                        Inmarsat 6 F1                 GTO  6400    LC39A
2020        FH                        ViaSat 3                      GTO  6400    LC39A
2021-04     F9                        SWOT                          SSO          LC4E
2020-05     FH                        Red Dragon (Mars Surface)     TMI  11000   LC39A
TBD         F9                        Bigelow Aerospace                          LC40
TBD         F9                        Eutelsat unknown   


MASS: kilograms
PAD:  LC40 is at Cape Canaveral; LC39A at Kennedy Space Center; LC4E at Vandenberg
Successful
Unsuccessful
Mars!!!!
Moon!!!!
[A] Google GMT Clock
[3] CRS-8 Updates / Discussion / Return
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates / Discussion / Post-Launch Article
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[7] CRS-9 Updates / Discussion / Static Fire Article / Launch Article / Return
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates / Discussion / Pre-launch Article / Launch Article
[9] AMOS-6 Updates / Discussion 
[10] Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) Update / Discussion
[11] EchoStar 23 Updates / Discussion
[12] SES-10 Updates / Discussion
[13] Formosat 5/Sherpa Updates /Discussion
[14] Sherpa SSO Updates / contents to be delivered
[15] SES-11/Echostar 105 Updates / Discussion
[16] CRS-10 Updates / Discussion
[17] Intelsat 35e Updates / Discussion Launch Window 19:35-20:35 (Eastern)
[18] NROL-76 Updates / Discussion
[19] Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) Updates / Discussion Launch Time 1324 PDT
[20] CRS-11 Updates / Discussion
[21] Inmarsat 5 F4 Updates / Discussion
[22] Bulgariasat-1 Launch Window 14:10 – 16:10 (Eastern)


Last 10 Edits:
Jun 06  edit/gongora: Slipped Bulgariasat 2 days.  Added X-37B in August 2017
Jun 05  edit/gongora: Marked CRS-11 successful.  Removed speculative Mars mission dates.
Jun 02  edit/gongora: Removed Eutelsat Quantum
May 25  edit/gongora: Moved Iridium Flight 2 to June 25 (1325 PDT).  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 1.
May 24  edit/gongora: Moved Koreasat-5A to August (educated guess), CCiCap In-Flight Abort to 2018
         removed estimated launch month from FH Demo and STP-2
May 23  edit/gongora: Moved Eutelsat Quantum to 2019
May 21  edit/gongora: Added Telkom 4, June 2018
May 20  edit/gongora: Moved CCtCap DM-1 to March 2018
May 17  edit/gongora: Moved PSN-6 to 2018
May 14  edit/gongora: updated masses (Telstar, Es'hail-2, Hispasat, GiSat) and core numbers for multiple missions 
May 04  edit/gongora: Moved SSO-A to 2018

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 06/21/2017 05:15 PM by gongora »

Online tleski

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #21 on: 05/06/2016 05:20 PM »
Spaceflight Now shows JCSAT-16 launch in August instead of September.

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #22 on: 05/07/2016 03:56 PM »
Also, Es'hail-2 has moved to 1Q 2017 https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites/index/

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #23 on: 05/07/2016 04:04 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

Online sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #24 on: 05/07/2016 04:20 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

NROL-37?

Offline francesco nicoli

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #25 on: 05/07/2016 04:22 PM »
test-fly of one of the used stages?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #26 on: 05/07/2016 04:40 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

You are reading too much into it, and your speculation is indeed wild.  It just says that the mission after Thaicom 8 hasn't been officially announced.  SpaceX isn't officially announcing their launch schedule more than one mission ahead right now except for CRS flights.  If the Eutelsat/ABS payload is ready next then it would be flown next.  You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #27 on: 05/07/2016 04:40 PM »
NROL-37?

No, not NROL-37. The text I quoted was from the Falcon 9 section. You can see it here: http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #28 on: 05/07/2016 04:43 PM »
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #29 on: 05/07/2016 04:58 PM »
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #30 on: 05/07/2016 05:29 PM »

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.

OK, I bow to your superior knowledge of the status of 39A. So assuming you're right and 39A isn't an option, it would have to be 4 from LC40 in about 30 days - one every 10 days or so.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 05:30 PM by Miker66 »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #31 on: 05/09/2016 01:18 PM »
test-fly of one of the used stages?

Is there room?  5/26 and 6/27 means a possible opportunity around 6/13, but that's packing them pretty tightly, right?  and wouldn't things at McGregor have to be a lot more interesting by now/ery soon to support three launches in June?

As of this post, the retesting thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40086.0) has no record of the CRS-8 Core-23 being retested.

If 6/13 is an opportunity, then there should be a payload for it arriving at the cape late this month, correct?

For these reasons, the manifest does not reflect this information.  But it certainly has all of our attention, methinks!!


Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #32 on: 05/09/2016 05:31 PM »
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/09/2016 05:37 PM by John Alan »

Offline LastStarFighter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #33 on: 05/09/2016 07:50 PM »
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)

Where did 5500kg come from? I thought this was a basic red light of the previous Eutelsat/ABS dual launch that was 4200kg.

Offline starhawk92

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Offline LastStarFighter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #35 on: 05/09/2016 08:23 PM »
Can we agree on 4800kg?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_115_West_B

That says 2205kg for Eutelsat and 1954kg for ABS. So 4159kg for both. You sure you're not looking at lbm and not kg? Or am I missing something?

Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #36 on: 05/09/2016 08:26 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up (to Geo) will NOT be recovered at times during the next 9 months...  ;)
They have a crispy stage now to look at... and put engineering changes into the build schedule later this year...
Meanwhile... gotta fly what they got already late into build to meet customer needs...

« Last Edit: 05/09/2016 08:34 PM by John Alan »

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #37 on: 05/09/2016 08:32 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But, in practice, there is.  --Jan van de Snepscheut

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #38 on: 05/09/2016 08:42 PM »
Discussing whether stages were damaged or whether engines are reusable/thrown away is off topic for a manifest thread
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #39 on: 05/09/2016 08:44 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".


Agreed... those are effective 2018 specs... and they believe (as do I) they can hit that target in time...
But the crispy stage coming in tonight with the panels yanked off in a hurry says they found a limit... (IMHO)
Engineering changes likely coming to TPS... along with the boost uprate planned...

My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...  ???

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