Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 182045 times)

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #20 on: 05/06/2016 04:36 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.

Sorry, forgot to reply to this one:  schaban has it right.  Just waiting to find out about RTLS vs JRTI on the west coast.
« Last Edit: 05/06/2016 06:16 PM by starhawk92 »

Offline tleski

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #21 on: 05/06/2016 05:20 PM »
Spaceflight Now shows JCSAT-16 launch in August instead of September.
“We are so f---ing small you cannot believe it.”  - Elon Musk

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #22 on: 05/07/2016 03:56 PM »
Also, Es'hail-2 has moved to 1Q 2017 https://www.eshailsat.qa/en/satellites/index/

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #23 on: 05/07/2016 04:04 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #24 on: 05/07/2016 04:20 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

NROL-37?

Offline francesco nicoli

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #25 on: 05/07/2016 04:22 PM »
test-fly of one of the used stages?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #26 on: 05/07/2016 04:40 PM »
I may be reading more into this than there is, but there seems to be an intriguing hint on the Cape Launch Viewing Guide that there will be a launch between Thaicom 8 and Eutelsat. I've bolded the bit that caught my eye.

"The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Thaicom 8 communication satellite on May 26 at 5:40pm EDT. The launch window is TBA. The following mission is TBA. A Falcon 9 will conduct the dual-payload launch of the Eutelsat 117 West B and ABS 2A communications satellites on June at the earliest. And a Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the next Dragon ISS resupply mission, CRS-9, on June 27, roughly around the 8am timeframe EDT." http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Building wild speculation on inference, could it be that SES-10 will go from LC39A in June?

You are reading too much into it, and your speculation is indeed wild.  It just says that the mission after Thaicom 8 hasn't been officially announced.  SpaceX isn't officially announcing their launch schedule more than one mission ahead right now except for CRS flights.  If the Eutelsat/ABS payload is ready next then it would be flown next.  You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #27 on: 05/07/2016 04:40 PM »
NROL-37?

No, not NROL-37. The text I quoted was from the Falcon 9 section. You can see it here: http://www.launchphotography.com/Delta_4_Atlas_5_Falcon_9_Launch_Viewing.html

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #28 on: 05/07/2016 04:43 PM »
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #29 on: 05/07/2016 04:58 PM »
You think they are going to launch three times from LC-40 in June after doing a launch on May 26?

No, if you re-read my post you'll see I was speculating that this possible extra launch could be from LC39A.

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.

Offline Miker66

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #30 on: 05/07/2016 05:29 PM »

Have you seen any indication that LC39A would be ready for a launch next month?  They just erected a work tent at the pad, there are several cranes there working on the pad.  They may not even static fire the recovered boosters there any time soon, let alone launch something.  And that would still require the SpaceX crew at the cape to do 4 launches in about 30 days.  Not gonna happen.

OK, I bow to your superior knowledge of the status of 39A. So assuming you're right and 39A isn't an option, it would have to be 4 from LC40 in about 30 days - one every 10 days or so.
« Last Edit: 05/07/2016 05:30 PM by Miker66 »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #31 on: 05/09/2016 01:18 PM »
test-fly of one of the used stages?

Is there room?  5/26 and 6/27 means a possible opportunity around 6/13, but that's packing them pretty tightly, right?  and wouldn't things at McGregor have to be a lot more interesting by now/ery soon to support three launches in June?

As of this post, the retesting thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40086.0) has no record of the CRS-8 Core-23 being retested.

If 6/13 is an opportunity, then there should be a payload for it arriving at the cape late this month, correct?

For these reasons, the manifest does not reflect this information.  But it certainly has all of our attention, methinks!!


Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #32 on: 05/09/2016 05:31 PM »
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/09/2016 05:37 PM by John Alan »

Offline LastStarFighter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #33 on: 05/09/2016 07:50 PM »
2016-06     F9(26)       OCISLY      Eutelsat 117 West B &     GTO  5500    LC40
                                     Asia Broadcast

Based on the stated mass of 5500... I'm starting to think this launch may go as expendable...  ???
The last launch (and the badly burned up stage coming into port now) hints they may have found the current limits...
Would not surprise me if SpaceX throws a few S1's away... now that the barn is filling up...
They likely need to make small design changes to future S1 builds before they push the envelope again...
This is still very much a development project... They catch S1's to learn and prove out ideas...
Right now... #1 priority is becoming... clear out the launch backlog... not catch every flown stage...
Just my opinion...  ;)

Where did 5500kg come from? I thought this was a basic red light of the previous Eutelsat/ABS dual launch that was 4200kg.

Offline starhawk92

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Offline LastStarFighter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #35 on: 05/09/2016 08:23 PM »
Can we agree on 4800kg?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_115_West_B

That says 2205kg for Eutelsat and 1954kg for ABS. So 4159kg for both. You sure you're not looking at lbm and not kg? Or am I missing something?

Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #36 on: 05/09/2016 08:26 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up (to Geo) will NOT be recovered at times during the next 9 months...  ;)
They have a crispy stage now to look at... and put engineering changes into the build schedule later this year...
Meanwhile... gotta fly what they got already late into build to meet customer needs...

« Last Edit: 05/09/2016 08:34 PM by John Alan »

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #37 on: 05/09/2016 08:32 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice.  But, in practice, there is.  --Jan van de Snepscheut

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #38 on: 05/09/2016 08:42 PM »
Discussing whether stages were damaged or whether engines are reusable/thrown away is off topic for a manifest thread
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online John Alan

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #39 on: 05/09/2016 08:44 PM »
Seems the launch mass has come into question... may only be 4500kg-ish... for the pair
If so, then this launch may be recovered...

BUT... I still think 5250kg-ish and up will NOT be recovered sometimes...  ;)
The recent update on SpaceX's capabilities page lists their new F9 price of $62M for up to 5,500kg to GTO.  Which says to me that they believe that is their limit for recovery.  Though, that may be only once they adjust for the planned uprated thrust "later this year".


Agreed... those are effective 2018 specs... and they believe (as do I) they can hit that target in time...
But the crispy stage coming in tonight with the panels yanked off in a hurry says they found a limit... (IMHO)
Engineering changes likely coming to TPS... along with the boost uprate planned...

My point... I guess... is this...
The top of thread manifest seems to assume OCISLY if RTLS is not obviously possible...
My opinion... we will really not know till just before launch on each flight... will we...  ???

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