Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4  (Read 182053 times)

Offline starhawk92

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« on: 05/04/2016 05:30 PM »
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post.
Prior thread 3 : https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0

List of past launches can be found here

Launch Windows, if known, are in the footnotes.

NET DATE    LV  REUSE     ID    RTRN  PAYLOAD(S)                    ORB  MASS    PAD
----------  --  -----   ------  ----  -----------------------       ---  ------  -----
2016-05-06  F9   24             OCIS  JCSAT-14 [4]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-05-27  F9   25      B1023  OCIS  Thaicom 8 [5]                 GTO  3100    LC40
2016-06-15  F9   26             OCIS  Eutelsat 117 West B [6] &     GTO  1960    LC40
                                      ABS-2A [6]                         2240
2016-07-18  F9   27             RTLS  Dragon (CRS-9) [7]            LEO  10000   LC40
2016-08-14  F9   28             OCIS  JCSAT-16 [8]                  GTO  ~5000   LC40
2016-09-03  F9   29             PAD   AMOS-6 [9]                    GTO  5500    LC40
2017-01-14  F9   30      B1029  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) [10]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-02-19  F9   31      B1031  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-10) [16]          LEO  10000   LC39A
2017-03-16  F9   32         30        Echostar 23 [11]              GTO  ~5500   LC39A
2017-03-30  F9   23-1    B1021  OCIS  SES-10 [12]                   GTO  5300    LC39A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2017-04-30  F9   33             RTLS  NROL-76 [18]                               LC39A
2017-05-15  F9                  EXPD  Inmarsat 5-F4 [21]            GTO  6100    LC39A
2017-05-14  F9                  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-11) [20]          LEO  10000   LC39A
2017-05-20  F9                  EXPD  Intelsat 35e [17]             GTO  ~6000   LC39A       
2017-05     F9                  OCIS  BulgariaSat-1                 GTO  3669    LC39A
2017-05     F9                  OCIS  SES-11/Echostar 105 [15]      GTO  5400    LC39A
2017-06-17  F9                  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) [19]  PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-06     F9                        PSN VI  + US Govt             GTO  5000    LC40
2017-07-22  F9                  JRTI  Formosat-5 & [13]             SSO  525+    LC4E
                                      Sherpa SSO [14]               
2017-07     F9                  OCIS  Koreasat 5A                   GTO  3500    LC39A
2017-08-24  F9                  JRTI  Iridium NEXT (Flight 3)       PLR  800x10  LC4E       
2017-08     F9                  RTLS  Dragon (CRS-12)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-08     FH       (C)        OCIS  Falcon Heavy Demo Flight                   LC39A
                25-1 (B) B1023  RTLS
                     (B)        RTLS
2017-09     FH                        US Air Force (STP-2)          MEO          LC39A
2017-09     F9                        SES-16/GovSat                 GTO  4000    LC39A
2017-09     F9                        Dragon (CRS-13)               LEO  10000   LC40
2017-10     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 4)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-10     F9                        2017 Sun Synch Express(SSO-A) SSO          LC4E
2017-10     F9                        PAZ                           PLR  1350    LC4E
2017-10     F9                        SAOCOM 1A                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2017-10     F9                        SES-14 / GOLD                 GTO  4200    LC40
2017-11     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM1                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2017-12     F9                        CCTCAP In-Flgt Abrt Test      SUB          LC39A
2017-12     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 5)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2017-12     F9                  RTLS  Bangabandhu-1                 GTO          LC40       
2017-12     F9                        Hispasat 1f or Amazonas5      GTO  ~5000   LC40
2018-01     F9                  OCIS  Es’hail 2                     GTO  5300    LC40
2018-02     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2018-02     F9                        Dragon (CRS-14)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-03     F9                        NASA (TESS)                   HEO  325     LC40
2018-04     F9                        Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)       PLR  800x10  LC4E
2018-04     F9                        Dragon (CRS-15)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-05     F9                  RTLS  CCTCAP DM2                    LEO  TBD     LC39A
2018-05     F9                        USAF GPS III A-2              MEO  3680    LC40
2018-08     F9                        Dragon (CRS-16)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019-10     F9                        GiSAT-1                       GTO          LC40
2018-10     F                         Lunar Dragon                  LEO  10000   LC39A
2018-10     F9                        Dragon (CRS-17)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018-12     F9                        Dragon (CRS-18)               LEO  10000   LC40
2018        F9                        Telstar 18 Vantage /          GTO          ?
                                      Apstar-5C
2018        F9                        Telstar 19 Vantage            GTO          ?
2018        FH                        Arabsat 6A                    GTO          LC39A
2018        F9                        RADARSAT Constellation        SSO  1400    LC4E
2018        F9                        SAOCOM 1B                     SSO  3000    LC4E
2018        F9                        OHB SARah 1                   SSO  ~2100   LC4E
2018        F9                        EutelSat-Quantum              GTO  ~3500   LC40
2019-02     F9                        GPS III A-3                   MEO   3680   LC40
2019-05     F9                        Dragon (CRS-19)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        CREW Dragon (with Crew)                    LC39A
2019        F9                        Dragon (CRS-20)               LEO  10000   LC40
2019        F9                        OHB SARah 2/3                 SSO  ~1800x2 LC4E
2020        F9                        Inmarsat 6 F1                 GTO  6400    LC39A
2020        FH                        ViaSat 3                      GTO  6400    LC39A
2021-04     F9                        SWOT                          SSO          LC4E
2020-05     FH                        Red Dragon (Mars Surface)     TMI  11000   LC39A
2020-05     TBD                       Red Dragon-2 (Mars Surface)
2020-06     TBD                       Red Dragon-3 (Mars Surface)
2022-08     TBD                       Interplanetary Transport System (ITS)
2024-09     TBD                       Red Dragon-5 (Mars Surface)
2026-11     TBD                       Red Dragon-6 (Mars Surface)
2029-01     TBD                       Red Dragon-7 (Mars Surface)
TBD         F9                        ABS-8                         GTO          LC40
TBD         FH                        INTELSAT                      GTO  5900    LC39A
TBD         F9                        Bigelow Aerospace                          LC40
TBD         F9                        DragonLab (Mission 1)                      LC39A
TBD         F9                        DragonLab (Mission 2)                      LC39A


MASS: kilograms
PAD:  LC40 is at Cape Canaveral; LC39A at Kennedy Space Center; LC4E at Vandenberg
Successful
Unsuccessful
Mars!!!!
Moon!!!!
[A] Google GMT Clock
[3] CRS-8 Updates / Discussion / Return
[4] JCSAT-14 Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[5] Thaicom-8 Updates / Discussion / Post-Launch Article
[6] Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS-2A Updates / Discussion / Pre-Launch Article / Post-Launch Article
[7] CRS-9 Updates / Discussion / Static Fire Article / Launch Article / Return
[8] JCSAT-16 Updates / Discussion / Pre-launch Article / Launch Article
[9] AMOS-6 Updates / Discussion 
[10] Iridium NEXT (Flight 1) Update / Discussion
[11] EchoStar 23 Updates / Discussion
[12] SES-10 Updates / Discussion
[13] Formosat 5/Sherpa Updates /Discussion
[14] Sherpa SSO Updates / contents to be delivered
[15] SES-11/Echostar 105 Updates / Discussion
[16] CRS-10 Updates / Discussion
[17] Intelsat 35e Updates / Discussion
[18] NROL-76 Updates / Discussion
[19] Iridium NEXT (Flight 2) Updates / Discussion
[20] CRS-11 Updates / Discussion
[21] Inmarsat 5 F4 Updates / Discussion



Last 10 Edits:
04/13  Schedule shuffle for next missions (this thread)
04/08  Removed CRS-8 mission (one year lapsed)
04/03  Added GiSAT-1 (this thread)
03/31  SES-10 Success with first stage reuse!!
03/28  Post static fire launch date adjustment for SES-10 (many threads)
03/23  Moved CCTCAP Abort test after CCTCAP Demo 1 flight (this thread)
03/22  Move Es’hail 2 to NET 2018 (this thread)
03/19  Added tracking numbers printed on stages; removed FCC app number
03/17  Added footnotes for next handful of launches
03/16  Echostar launch success!!


All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 04/13/2017 07:11 PM by starhawk92 »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #1 on: 05/04/2016 05:35 PM »
The biggest question is if we know for sure that the RTLS pad/infrastructure will be in place in time for Formosat/Sherpa and how soon we might get a launch date for the west coast.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #2 on: 05/04/2016 06:53 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #3 on: 05/04/2016 07:08 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

This new thread is started by starhawk92 so now he can edit the first post in place, and update the subject line...

edit: maybe not... see below...
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:56 PM by sewebster »

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #4 on: 05/04/2016 08:39 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #5 on: 05/04/2016 09:18 PM »
Probably going to rename this thread and lock (3).... by having the lead post be Starhawk92's they can edit the post similar to how the abort scrubs is handled and it is easy to find since it's the lead.

(https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40049.0 is thread three)
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:18 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline arnezami

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #6 on: 05/04/2016 09:40 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:43 PM by arnezami »

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #7 on: 05/04/2016 09:56 PM »
Why does this update need its own thread? Are you going to start a new thread for every change?

No, it's been hashed over pretty well for a few weeks.  Probably will only update after a major event (like a launch) or when a lot of smaller updates accumulate.  Each new publication of the table will get it's own thread.  Senior Members and Moderators know about this.  If this does not work out, we'll go back to the old way.

Innovate Forward, the SpaceX way!!   ::)

Oh, a separate thread for each update? This doesn't seem consistent with what Lar wrote below (and he's a mod).

edit: I meant below the quote, so, above this!  ;D
« Last Edit: 05/04/2016 09:57 PM by sewebster »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #8 on: 05/04/2016 09:58 PM »
I guess I should talk to starhawk92 about this but I assume they were going to edit the header post with updates. NOT a separate thread for each update.... that's way too many threads.

Edit: All good, that's how it will be, the header post will have the latest. I put a link back to thread 3 in the header as well.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2016 01:21 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online friendly3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #9 on: 05/04/2016 10:08 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg

Source: Federal Communication Commission

Click on "Attachment Menu", then on "Attachment Schedule S Documents". At the last page it says "Mass of spacecraft & fuel at launch: 4696.2 kg".

(btw this is not my find, but GerdW's on raumfahrer.net)

Nice find, arnezami. You would make a good detective.

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #10 on: 05/04/2016 10:38 PM »
Mass for JCSat 14 (JCSat 2B) is 4696.2 kg
Props to Kabloona, who estimated it at 4500kg.

So, definitely lighter than SES-9, will be interesting to see how this affects the recovery profile (or not).

Offline arnezami

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #11 on: 05/05/2016 07:38 AM »
For comparison: on space.skyrocket.de there is also a manifest for the Falcon 9 v1.2 and for the Falcon Heavy.

When you click on the links for the payloads you get nice information and references to sources.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #12 on: 05/05/2016 04:10 PM »
This article was interesting from the standpoint that MDA executives see a trend starting that has two prongs: GSO sats are getting heavier (those not on contract yet) and the LEO constellation sats are multiplying rapidly.
http://spacenews.com/mda-corp-says-commercial-satcom-bidding-is-at-record-high-level/

For SpaceX this implication is that there will be an upswing in use of FH for GSO sats and a possible increase in launches out of VAFB for commercial customers probably using the now heavier LEO capable F9. Also the impact on the manifest would be that the LEO constellations would probably launch sooner than the new heavier GSO sats. I would not expect the wave of larger GSO to be NET 2019 and more likely 2020. They would probably grow in size to be up to the capabilities of a Vulcan/ACES or Ariane 64 whichever is lower. This size would also put them at the edge or beyond F9 capabilities meaning a lot more FH launches in the 2019 and latter time frame.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2016 04:14 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Tass

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #13 on: 05/05/2016 05:52 PM »
Four missions in May?! Oh that would be great if it were true.

Half of that will still be great. And just one will be fine (as long as it is followed by another in June).

Offline pericynthion

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #14 on: 05/05/2016 09:33 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

Offline mnelson

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #15 on: 05/06/2016 06:38 AM »
On April 29 spaceflightnow.com:
"Falcon 9/Eutelsat 117 West B & ABS 2A delayed; Falcon 9/Thaicom 8 moved forward"

They've swapped the order of these flights. Thaicom 8 as "late May" and Eutelsat 117 in June.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #16 on: 05/06/2016 06:51 AM »
Time for another update edit and more green text!
Whoo Hoo!
2016-05-06  F9(24)       OCISLY      JCSAT-14 [2]              GTO  4696    LC40
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline starhawk92

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #17 on: 05/06/2016 08:05 AM »
Update in a few hours, I need to try to get some sleep before the daily grind begins!!

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #18 on: 05/06/2016 03:34 PM »
Spaceflight Now updated their list and now has Thaicom 8 on May 26 and CRS-9 on June 27.

Offline schaban

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 4
« Reply #19 on: 05/06/2016 04:18 PM »
@starhawk92: Does a blank "1S Tgt" mean expendable or just unknown?  Maybe you could put something in there to distinguish?

yes, "-" or "NR" where is definite no recovery would be nice. Unknown would stay blank.

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