Why would North Korea expend so much national treasure developing a missile that can only reach "Alaska"?
Quote from: Websorber on 07/06/2017 07:25 pmNorth Korea’s Hwasong-14 Missile Launch Site Identified: The Panghyon Aircraft Factoryhttp://www.38north.org/2017/07/panghyon070617/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+38North+%2838+North%3A+Informed+Analysis+of+North+Korea%29I'd say his argument is nonsense as has been explained in other articles it clearly does have a new engine.
North Korea’s Hwasong-14 Missile Launch Site Identified: The Panghyon Aircraft Factoryhttp://www.38north.org/2017/07/panghyon070617/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+38North+%2838+North%3A+Informed+Analysis+of+North+Korea%29
It is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....
Quote from: K210 on 07/07/2017 11:11 amIt is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....Is it possible assistance has been given the area of engine development?
Quote from: K210 on 07/07/2017 11:11 amIt is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....Is there any proof that this engine has 80 tons of thrust? Could you compare this engine with that used by Hwasong 10? Is that also an 80 ton thrust engine?For comparison, the R-27 engine (4D10) is a 25 ton engine. The alleged ICBM tested a few days ago is clearly close to R-27 in dimensions; if it were equipped with an 80 ton engine, it would have accelerated much more quickly than the videos indicate.Do you have better estimates of the size and mass of Hwasong-14?My view is that the many years that have passed since the introduction of R-27 technology into the NK missile program tells us that their progress has been slow.
Quote from: Danderman on 07/07/2017 10:05 pmQuote from: K210 on 07/07/2017 11:11 amIt is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....Is there any proof that this engine has 80 tons of thrust? Could you compare this engine with that used by Hwasong 10? Is that also an 80 ton thrust engine?For comparison, the R-27 engine (4D10) is a 25 ton engine. The alleged ICBM tested a few days ago is clearly close to R-27 in dimensions; if it were equipped with an 80 ton engine, it would have accelerated much more quickly than the videos indicate.Do you have better estimates of the size and mass of Hwasong-14?My view is that the many years that have passed since the introduction of R-27 technology into the NK missile program tells us that their progress has been slow.The engine used on the hwasong-12 and hwasong-14 is probably a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine they are developing for their new SLV. For ICBM application they have probably lowered the thrust to 40-60 tons level and added some steering engines. It is likely NK has scrapped the R-27 engines completely at this point given how unreliable they have proven (90% of tests were failures in 2016).North korea seems to be moving beyond using left overs from the soviet union and developing their own tech from the ground up. At least that is what it looks like from the outside.
Quote from: K210 on 07/08/2017 06:37 pmQuote from: Danderman on 07/07/2017 10:05 pmQuote from: K210 on 07/07/2017 11:11 amIt is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....Is there any proof that this engine has 80 tons of thrust? Could you compare this engine with that used by Hwasong 10? Is that also an 80 ton thrust engine?For comparison, the R-27 engine (4D10) is a 25 ton engine. The alleged ICBM tested a few days ago is clearly close to R-27 in dimensions; if it were equipped with an 80 ton engine, it would have accelerated much more quickly than the videos indicate.Do you have better estimates of the size and mass of Hwasong-14?My view is that the many years that have passed since the introduction of R-27 technology into the NK missile program tells us that their progress has been slow.The engine used on the hwasong-12 and hwasong-14 is probably a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine they are developing for their new SLV. For ICBM application they have probably lowered the thrust to 40-60 tons level and added some steering engines. It is likely NK has scrapped the R-27 engines completely at this point given how unreliable they have proven (90% of tests were failures in 2016).North korea seems to be moving beyond using left overs from the soviet union and developing their own tech from the ground up. At least that is what it looks like from the outside.Again, you are asserting that NK has an 80 ton thrust engine with no proof. I am not saying you are wrong, but I cannot accept an analysis based on a feeling.You do seem to admit that the Hwasong 10 uses the 4D10 derived engine, which is a 25 ton class engine. Therefore, you should understand that it is unlikely that Hwasong 12 and 14 have an engine that is significantly more powerful, since all three missiles are roughly the same size.The more likely scenario is that the Hwasong 10 failures were symptoms of teething pains for R-27 based technology, and as time passes and more tests were conducted, the technicians fixed some of the problems.One further note: the much larger Unha satellite launcher uses 4 Scud class engines clustered in the first stage. NK is probably going to have to either cluster the R-27 engine or seriously upgrade it to generate an ICBM with a usable payload and usable range.
On the contrary. It is commonly agreed that Hwasong 10 uses R-27 technology for its engine. R-27 has a 25 ton class engine.It is fairly obvious from photos that Hwasong 14 is comparable to Hwasong 10, as they seem to share a TEL.That tells us that Hwasong 14 uses the same class engine as Hwasong 14, albeit with minor modifications.Still waiting for proof of that 80 ton class engine.
Quote from: Danderman on 07/08/2017 09:47 pmQuote from: K210 on 07/08/2017 06:37 pmQuote from: Danderman on 07/07/2017 10:05 pmQuote from: K210 on 07/07/2017 11:11 amIt is highly likely the first stage engine used on Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-12 is a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine north korea tested in september 2016. Furthermore by studying the launch images you can see the second stage is rather small. It is possible north korea may stretch the upper stage down the track and achieve greater payload/range. If some improvements are made to the design the hwasong-14 could easily be made into a 10,000 Km class icbm which would put pretty much the entire world into range.Given the rapid progress NK has made with rocket engine technology i think the world is in for quite a surprise when they reveal their new LV.....Is there any proof that this engine has 80 tons of thrust? Could you compare this engine with that used by Hwasong 10? Is that also an 80 ton thrust engine?For comparison, the R-27 engine (4D10) is a 25 ton engine. The alleged ICBM tested a few days ago is clearly close to R-27 in dimensions; if it were equipped with an 80 ton engine, it would have accelerated much more quickly than the videos indicate.Do you have better estimates of the size and mass of Hwasong-14?My view is that the many years that have passed since the introduction of R-27 technology into the NK missile program tells us that their progress has been slow.The engine used on the hwasong-12 and hwasong-14 is probably a derivative of the 80 ton thrust engine they are developing for their new SLV. For ICBM application they have probably lowered the thrust to 40-60 tons level and added some steering engines. It is likely NK has scrapped the R-27 engines completely at this point given how unreliable they have proven (90% of tests were failures in 2016).North korea seems to be moving beyond using left overs from the soviet union and developing their own tech from the ground up. At least that is what it looks like from the outside.Again, you are asserting that NK has an 80 ton thrust engine with no proof. I am not saying you are wrong, but I cannot accept an analysis based on a feeling.You do seem to admit that the Hwasong 10 uses the 4D10 derived engine, which is a 25 ton class engine. Therefore, you should understand that it is unlikely that Hwasong 12 and 14 have an engine that is significantly more powerful, since all three missiles are roughly the same size.The more likely scenario is that the Hwasong 10 failures were symptoms of teething pains for R-27 based technology, and as time passes and more tests were conducted, the technicians fixed some of the problems.One further note: the much larger Unha satellite launcher uses 4 Scud class engines clustered in the first stage. NK is probably going to have to either cluster the R-27 engine or seriously upgrade it to generate an ICBM with a usable payload and usable range.In September 2016 North Korea claimed they had tested a 80 ton thrust rocket engine. Analysis of the blast scar at the test stand showed that the engine was indeed significantly more powerful than anything NK had tested before. Here is a link to a report by a expert: http://www.38north.org/2016/09/jschilling092116/I have doubts that a 25 ton thrust engine could be used to power a icbm given the fact that the 1000 Km range Rodong missile is powered by a less efficient but more powerful 27 ton thrust engine. It is likely NK used the experience gained from the R-27 engine to build their own engines based on a more simpler gas generator cycle. Also it is worth noting that iran may also be involved either through direct technical assistance or financing as they recently have alluded to a new family of rockets powered by a 80 ton thrust engine.Either way it is impossible for anyone outside north korea to say with 100% confidence what NK is up to. All we can do is study information avaliable and come to our own conclusions.
Quote from: Danderman on 07/08/2017 11:42 pmOn the contrary. It is commonly agreed that Hwasong 10 uses R-27 technology for its engine. R-27 has a 25 ton class engine.It is fairly obvious from photos that Hwasong 14 is comparable to Hwasong 10, as they seem to share a TEL.That tells us that Hwasong 14 uses the same class engine as Hwasong 14, albeit with minor modifications.Still waiting for proof of that 80 ton class engine.Hwasong-14 is quite a bit taller and wider than hwasong-10. Hwasong-14 also seems to have provision for MIRV capability according to onboard camera footage realised by NK. My guess is they have taken the hwasong-10 design and improved upon it with new engines and a second stage to create a entry level icbm. Also if NK's claim of being able to carry a "heavy nuclear warhead" is true then it is possible they have increased the payload to 1-2 tons like most other icbms.