Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2016?

None, that was a fluke
1 (0.4%)
1
1 (0.4%)
2
2 (0.8%)
3
17 (6.6%)
4
27 (10.4%)
5
44 (17%)
6
48 (18.5%)
7
24 (9.3%)
8
26 (10%)
9
13 (5%)
10
20 (7.7%)
11
4 (1.5%)
12
17 (6.6%)
13
2 (0.8%)
14
1 (0.4%)
15 or more
12 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 259

Voting closed: 01/24/2016 08:04 AM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016  (Read 11953 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #40 on: 01/06/2016 01:50 PM »
It's probably not a HUGE difference. Except for an ASDS landing. It could be days between when the core lands and when it's in JAX or the port of LA and a crane attaches.

That's what the weldable shoes are for. Agreed the crane thing is wrong; "secured" anyhow should suffice.
I understand that people would like to see different definitions.

But I'm not going to change the definition I chose. And if I did, I'd have to reset the poll, as many people have voted already.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #41 on: 01/06/2016 03:03 PM »
For my part, I apologize for my early post +1'ing the intact definition.  We were all superbly trolled by @quantumg, causing us to waste a lot of breath defining "intact" when Lars already had a perfectly serviceable definition in the first post.

@Lars I wouldn't take it personally.  Everyone (including me) re-defining "intact" is actually reaffirming your original definition.  We're just silly enough to respond to posts in the heat of "+1 fever" without rereading the first post and realizing we don't actually need to say anything.

Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #42 on: 01/06/2016 03:31 PM »
8 Returns:   6 F9s & 2 boosters from FH.

I think, if the FH demo flight launches in 16, they'll likely recover all 3 cores via RTLS.

Why wouldn't they keep the simulated payload mass low enough for that missin profile?

Regarding the above reference to 5 FH launches, I think they will be successful to get 1 FH off the ground in 16, 2 would be massively successful.
They may very well recover all 3. But I wasn't sure exactly what the first mission would be and thought perhaps the core may wind up needing to complete a return profile that has never been attempted before. I was in a conservative mood.
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Online hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #43 on: 01/06/2016 08:51 PM »
Voted 4, out of 11 flights predicted in the other thread. Just a WAG, based on:
1) Don't expect them to attempt recovery on more than ~50% of flights
2) Don't expect every recovery attempt to be successful

Wouldn't be surprised if it was as many as 6 or as few as 3.

Offline SpacemanInSPACE

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #44 on: 01/06/2016 11:18 PM »
I voted 10 flights, so went for a 30% return rate and guessed 3.
Space is worth it God Damnit!

Offline chalz

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #45 on: 01/06/2016 11:53 PM »
This poll is like trying to guess how many flights they would make in 2018 from back in 2008. :-\ :-[

Offline deadman719

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #46 on: 01/07/2016 12:14 AM »
My random guess for successful landings is 6.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #47 on: 01/07/2016 04:34 PM »
This poll is like trying to guess how many flights they would make in 2018 from back in 2008. :-\ :-[
Yeah, because we deal here with two layers of uncertainity. First, we do not know for sure how many successful launches will be done. Second layer is, of course, amount of successful returns themself that directly depends on first number.
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Offline ZachS09

I'm guessing 4 cores because landings can be sometimes hard to perform. Especially on a barge.
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Offline DJPledger

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #49 on: 01/07/2016 07:55 PM »
I voted 5 returned cores in 2016 as SpaceX are still likely to miss a few landings especially on the barge.

Offline fthomassy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #50 on: 01/07/2016 08:23 PM »
Voted 15 in launch poll and 6 here.  I'm anticipating a low rate of opportunity and moderate rate of success with a majority of returns being ASDS rather than RTLS.

Good luck SpaceX!
gyatm . . . Fern

Offline philw1776

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #51 on: 01/08/2016 05:14 PM »
Predicted 13 successful launches again this year. Forecasting 7 successfully returned cores.  I'll likely be too pessimistic if FH really launches in 2016 as annually forecast by SX.  Not all are returned because of launch dynamics and bad weather for drone recovery plus maybe one more lesson or so about core recovery learned the RUD way.
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Offline majormajor42

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #52 on: 01/08/2016 07:13 PM »
Poll is open till the 24th. The smart money will wait to see if they can nail it on the barge on the (NET) 17th.
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Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #53 on: 01/08/2016 10:45 PM »
14 intact cores...  :o
But I guessed 17 launches... So this seems like a logical number...  ::)

Offline WizZifnab

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #54 on: 01/09/2016 02:43 AM »
I voted 9.   Based on ~13 launches.

I think weather or launch profile will probably keep a few cores from being recovered, but otherwise I'm optimistic.  The wildcard could be FH, esp. if they press to get that into service for customers.

I started imagining if they pulled a hat trick on their FH demo.  That would be something.  As excited as everyone was with the recent landing, seeing a successful FH launch and watching 2 cores landing live at the cape, then getting images shortly thereafter of the 3rd sitting all happy on the barge.  Wouldn't that make a statement.

Offline SweetWater

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #55 on: 01/09/2016 03:04 AM »
I voted 14 launches this year, so am voting for 7 cores returned intact. Personally, I'm not holding my breath on Falcon Heavy launching this year, but it would be very, very cool to see 2 (essentially) simultaneous landings.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #56 on: 01/09/2016 05:17 AM »
I voted 12 launches and 5 intact landings. It will come down to how Jason-3 goes. If it lands safely on the ASDS then I think I'm being pessimistic. I also think weather will come into play for ASDS landings and some won't be able to be recovered.

Offline johnstone

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #57 on: 01/10/2016 07:15 AM »

6 points I think so

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #58 on: 01/11/2016 01:25 AM »
I voted 15 or more because I believe it will be 15 cores but then I believe that there will be 16 flights that also include at least 2 FH flights. 16 flights that includes 2 FH flights is 20 cores launched so for SpaceX to recover only 15 of those 20 5 cores will be unrecoverable for either they crashed or the weather was not conducive to an ASDS landing and the customer did not want to wait just so SpaceX could increase chances of stage recovery. Else probably every stage launched could be recovered.

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #59 on: 01/11/2016 09:53 AM »
Seriously, what is it with you guys and odd numbers?

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