Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2016?

None, that was a fluke
1 (0.4%)
1
1 (0.4%)
2
2 (0.8%)
3
17 (6.6%)
4
27 (10.4%)
5
44 (17%)
6
48 (18.5%)
7
24 (9.3%)
8
26 (10%)
9
13 (5%)
10
20 (7.7%)
11
4 (1.5%)
12
17 (6.6%)
13
2 (0.8%)
14
1 (0.4%)
15 or more
12 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 259

Voting closed: 01/24/2016 08:04 AM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016  (Read 10653 times)

Offline Lar

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This is a companion poll to the number of flights poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0
Consult that poll for history, manifest predictions, etc....

For the purposes of this poll an "intact core returned" or "successfully landed first stage" means that the stage returned from boost and executed a landing in which it did not topple over, blow up, strike on impact, or disintegrate. There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest. If it immediately topples after that, or is damaged in handling it still counts.  If SpaceX reuses a stage and lands it again, each successful landing of the stage counts as a returned core.

The landing can be RTLS or on an ASDS or some as yet unspecified thing (I'll modify this if that happens)

Note that a Falcon Heavy has 3 cores. It's possible that 0, 1, 2, or 3 could be returned successfully. it's possible that some do a RTLS and some land on an ASDS. Each core that landed successfully counts as one core. Each core expended, whether by choice, or by accident, or that fails to remain upright and stationary long enough to get a picture, counts as zero.

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. Therefore, so a launch abort test would not count, so would a first stage only launch test... Nor would tests at Spaceport America if that comes to pass...  the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital.  Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter. The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Hopefully that makes things clear. You may not agree with my definitions or wish they were different but these are the ones being used so take that into account.
« Last Edit: 01/05/2016 03:08 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Dante80

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #1 on: 01/04/2016 08:08 AM »
I went with four. A little less than 50% (I think they will launch 9 times this year).

Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #2 on: 01/04/2016 08:09 AM »
Hmmmm. I voted for 10 launches in the other poll, so I'm going for 5 successful core returns. I think there are still some bugs that will need to be worked out, especially on ASDS landings. I expect at least a few earth-shattering kabooms this year.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #3 on: 01/04/2016 08:11 AM »
I voted 12 in the other poll and I think there's a good chance they will try for all and get 2/3 so I voted 8. Not much more scientific than that.

(however it makes me the BIG optimist so far :) )

I figured unlike the other poll I didn't have to go beyond 15 cores... PM me if you think I should have went higher before "or more")
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 08:13 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online MikeAtkinson

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #4 on: 01/04/2016 08:16 AM »
To make my vote consistent with my 23 prediction for launches I went for 15+

Offline QuantumG

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #5 on: 01/04/2016 08:33 AM »
Shouldn't you be all for counting attempts? After all, how do you define "intact"? :trollface:
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Offline mme

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #6 on: 01/04/2016 08:56 AM »
I voted 6 but really have no good reason.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #7 on: 01/04/2016 09:03 AM »
Voted 7. Expect 5 however depending on delta V reqs for various flights. Maybe lower even.
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Offline Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #8 on: 01/04/2016 10:17 AM »
Shouldn't you be all for counting attempts? After all, how do you define "intact"? :trollface:


Geez will you let it go.

How about 'intact' means it still looks like a rocket, so is sat on its own four legs with a superficially intact tankage structure on top, and remains that way long enough for the recovery crews to come and hook the crane up.
Damage to individual components such as engines or grid fins do not make a stage non-intact.

I will eat crow if this definition proves insufficiently detailed.
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Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #9 on: 01/04/2016 10:34 AM »
3 recoveries from 9 launches. Feasible?
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 10:39 AM by vapour_nudge »

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #10 on: 01/04/2016 11:13 AM »
Nine! I want to be right, therefore, I am right.  :D
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #11 on: 01/04/2016 11:44 AM »
Wait, does a FH count for 3? 

I voted 6, but a fully reuse able FH I think it's 8-9.
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Online Poole Amateur

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #12 on: 01/04/2016 11:46 AM »
Stuck my finger in the air and came up with a completely unscientific guess of 12 launches and 6 recoveries.

Would be very happy to find I have been pessimistic...on both numbers!

Offline majormajor42

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #13 on: 01/04/2016 12:58 PM »
Wait, does a FH count for 3?  

I voted 6, but a fully reuse able FH I think it's 8-9.

Yes, as many of the three that land.

From the total # of flights thread:
It is ridiculous that we'd count a Falcon Heavy launch with a mass simulator, but at least it'd be an orbital flight.
So it might be 4 points! One for launch and three for landing  :o




I guessed 9.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 01:12 PM by majormajor42 »
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Offline cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #14 on: 01/04/2016 01:35 PM »
I agree with @kaputnik's definition of "intact".  Basically, if it stays standing on four feet long enough to hook the crane up, it's intact.

In the launch attempts poll, I've been going with the "50% more than last year" rule, which led me to predict 11 launches.  That rule didn't seem to apply here: surely they will land more than 1.5 cores.  I'm going to be bold and predict 11 landings.  That's "almost 100%" -- you can miss two F9FT launches and make it up by recovering all three cores of the FH.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #15 on: 01/04/2016 01:40 PM »
Voted six (from nine launches that will happen in 2016 imo). Call me optimist... I don't think they will have many problem with RTLS, assuming successful launch. Maybe some gremlin there and here, and there is still unproven drone ship landing.

About FH: I would count each core separately. It is not launch where whole shebang go up together. Every core from FH returns back on their own. Since I don't think FH will launch in 2016, didn't count them in number above.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #16 on: 01/04/2016 02:33 PM »
I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

Online tleski

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #17 on: 01/04/2016 03:56 PM »
I agree with @kaputnik's definition of "intact".  Basically, if it stays standing on four feet long enough to hook the crane up, it's intact.

I like this definition. I think we should count cores which don't topple immediately after landing but that's just me.

Voted for 5, which is approx. 50% of the 11 successful launches for which I voted in the other poll. As many people here I am hoping I am wrong and it will be many more but as we know anything can happen.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #18 on: 01/04/2016 04:14 PM »
I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

What is harder -- RTLS or ASDS landing and why?  SpaceX has shown that they hit very close to center of the LZ if everything works well.

Online tleski

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #19 on: 01/04/2016 04:52 PM »
I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

What is harder -- RTLS or ASDS landing and why?  SpaceX has shown that they hit very close to center of the LZ if everything works well.

SpaceX cannot control weather (yet  ;)), so they may expend some stages due to this factor for ASDS bargings. Much less likely for RTLS in my opinion.

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