Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2016

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.2%)
2
2 (0.5%)
3
0 (0%)
4
2 (0.5%)
5
2 (0.5%)
6
6 (1.4%)
7
4 (0.9%)
8
16 (3.7%)
9
20 (4.6%)
10
51 (11.8%)
11
45 (10.4%)
12
84 (19.4%)
13
33 (7.6%)
14
62 (14.3%)
15
39 (9%)
16
31 (7.1%)
17
12 (2.8%)
18
7 (1.6%)
19
1 (0.2%)
20
7 (1.6%)
21-25
8 (1.8%)
26-30
1 (0.2%)
31-35
0 (0%)
More than 35!!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 434

Voting closed: 01/19/2016 05:45 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016  (Read 37100 times)

Offline woods170

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #200 on: 12/07/2016 02:42 PM »
Forgotten I had voted in this thread until it just popped up in my unread list. Looks like it may be time for me to change my middle name to "Nostradamus".

Hopefully they can turn it around in 2017.
For that they need to get their reliability in check.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #201 on: 12/09/2016 04:15 PM »
When might the next year's poll open? be nice if it was closed early in January.
Applicant for Astronaut Candidate for class of 2017 - Colonize Mars!

Offline mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #202 on: 12/12/2016 01:13 PM »
I think I'm going to vote 13 for the 3rd year running. :P Sooner or later I'll be right.

Offline shm6666

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #203 on: 12/12/2016 02:06 PM »
Well I selected 8 launches for 2016. I thought was on the low end. I’m not thrilled that I got that one right. I wanted to be wrong on this one. I wanted SpaceX to take it slow and steady. For a launch company like SpaceX to have 8 successful launches during one year should count as a tremendous success. That is true that we want more and the 9:th launch did not happen.

For 2017 I feel confident that SpaceX will find its stride again and will launch many times. When the pool comes out I will make an educated guess.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #204 on: 12/12/2016 06:12 PM »
When might the next year's poll open? be nice if it was closed early in January.

Working on it... my plan is to have it be close to the same end date as before.

I have created the poll but it's locked. I'm interested in your feedback on it, which you can place here.  You should be able to view the header but not vote or comment. ( I cleared a couple of early votes and then locked the poll too)

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

I also created the companion poll for core recovery.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0

Comments welcomed on that too, here.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2016 07:24 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #205 on: 12/13/2016 02:25 AM »
IIUC if the engines start and the computer aborts that doesn't count as a launch but if it blows up on the pad instead that counts as a launch. ISTM that blowing up should not make something into a launch. I would change the definition of a launch slightly by requiring liftoff, i.e. an intact rocket starts accelerating upwards.

Offline rocx

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #206 on: 12/13/2016 08:20 AM »
IIUC if the engines start and the computer aborts that doesn't count as a launch but if it blows up on the pad instead that counts as a launch. ISTM that blowing up should not make something into a launch. I would change the definition of a launch slightly by requiring liftoff, i.e. an intact rocket starts accelerating upwards.

Quote
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad

Seems pretty clear to me from Lar's rules that if the vehicle has not left the ground, it is not a launch.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #207 on: 12/13/2016 11:19 AM »
Seems pretty clear to me from Lar's rules that if the vehicle has not left the ground, it is not a launch.

Correct. The release mechanism has to activate and it has to move some amount. (1 mm would be sufficient, although I can see the squabbling now :) )

I have no plan to make any major changes in the rules or definitions. I think it's important (for science!) that the polls be as consistent as possible from one year to the next. I am interested in edge cases though, where the definitions need tightening. I'm also interested in grammatical errors or errors in fact (I accidentally left an Atlas in the launch list or deleted a Falcon)... those probably are best handled via PM.

The polls will open in a few days after I'm confident I have corrected all the easy to spot things. (if any)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #208 on: 12/13/2016 03:07 PM »
Correct. The release mechanism has to activate and it has to move some amount.

I was going off of the following text, which suggests engine start is sufficient:

Quote
The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough.

Maybe you should add something about release to the quoted text?


Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #209 on: 12/13/2016 08:38 PM »
Correct. The release mechanism has to activate and it has to move some amount.

I was going off of the following text, which suggests engine start is sufficient:

Quote
The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough.

Maybe you should add something about release to the quoted text?



Good point... but...  We're starting to get to a real edge case here... the engines have to start with intent to launch but the vehicle doesn't move at all... failure of the release mechanism followed by a destructive event. Because if the vehicle isn't destroyed, I think most would argue that if it later successfully launches, that first case was an abort (else we'd get to count two launches for one vehicle and that's not right).

Open to suggestions on reword. But all previous cases have to bin to the same bin they did before or it's not good.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline rocx

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #210 on: 12/14/2016 08:03 AM »
The relevant point to define is the point of no return. The point where if something bad happens, you are going to lose the mission, vehicle and/or payload. The way Falcon 9 launches currently work, that is when the release clamps open while the engines are running. By that logic, if the engines are running normally, but the release mechanism fully fails and the launch is aborted, it's not a launch. If the launch mechanism partially fails and the rocket leaves the ground but wildly skews off course, it's a horribly failed launch.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline Poole Amateur

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #211 on: 12/14/2016 08:29 AM »
Perhaps rather than going round in ever decreasing circles about when a launch is not a launch, and because there is no prize for being right (other than a self congratulatory pat on the back), Lar can make the call, if there is a mishap, whether it is a failed launch or not.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2016 08:31 AM by Poole Amateur »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #212 on: 12/14/2016 03:58 PM »
Perhaps rather than going round in ever decreasing circles about when a launch is not a launch, and because there is no prize for being right (other than a self congratulatory pat on the back), Lar can make the call, if there is a mishap, whether it is a failed launch or not.
Perhaps.  But this being NSF we like to figure it all out in advance if we can. :)  I think rocx is on to something... if the clamps release but the vehicle doesn't leave, doesn't fall over, and they reengage the clamps and safe the vehicle... not a launch. But if same exact scenario, the vehicle is destroyed, launch.  Maybe?

But ya, ever decreasing circles.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #213 on: 12/17/2016 06:08 AM »
The relevant point to define is the point of no return. The point where if something bad happens, you are going to lose the mission, vehicle and/or payload. The way Falcon 9 launches currently work, that is when the release clamps open while the engines are running. By that logic, if the engines are running normally, but the release mechanism fully fails and the launch is aborted, it's not a launch. If the launch mechanism partially fails and the rocket leaves the ground but wildly skews off course, it's a horribly failed launch.

I suggested upwards motion of the vehicle as the cutoff because it's the best approximation of the point of no return that we can easily judge using just the video.

Perhaps.  But this being NSF we like to figure it all out in advance if we can. :)  I think rocx is on to something... if the clamps release but the vehicle doesn't leave, doesn't fall over, and they reengage the clamps and safe the vehicle... not a launch. But if same exact scenario, the vehicle is destroyed, launch.  Maybe?

I would not count that as a launch since the rocket never lifted off. I would class that as an accident during the static fire test that's conducted seconds before every launch.

Offline TakeOff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #214 on: 12/27/2016 06:56 PM »
Only one in seven on this poll think there will be less than 10 SpaX orbital launches in 2017. A company that is grounded for half a year again now. I sense there's some unwarranted optimism around here. 9 launches would be great.
« Last Edit: 12/27/2016 06:58 PM by TakeOff »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #215 on: 12/28/2016 02:01 AM »
Only one in seven on this poll think there will be less than 10 SpaX orbital launches in 2017. A company that is grounded for half a year again now. I sense there's some unwarranted optimism around here. 9 launches would be great.
I think you may mean to be in this year's poll...

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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