Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2016

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.2%)
2
2 (0.5%)
3
0 (0%)
4
2 (0.5%)
5
2 (0.5%)
6
6 (1.4%)
7
4 (0.9%)
8
16 (3.7%)
9
20 (4.6%)
10
51 (11.8%)
11
45 (10.4%)
12
84 (19.4%)
13
33 (7.6%)
14
62 (14.3%)
15
39 (9%)
16
31 (7.1%)
17
12 (2.8%)
18
7 (1.6%)
19
1 (0.2%)
20
7 (1.6%)
21-25
8 (1.8%)
26-30
1 (0.2%)
31-35
0 (0%)
More than 35!!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 434

Voting closed: 01/19/2016 05:45 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016  (Read 42777 times)

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #20 on: 12/19/2015 01:06 AM »
9

It's what I pessimistically projected last year and that wasn't pessimistic enough in retrospect!

I think 9 is realistic. I think they will also recover a core this year, but won't re-fly one till 2017.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline davey142

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #21 on: 12/19/2015 02:46 AM »
13. A little over one per month sounds reasonable. Maybe more because of the backlog, but we all how SpaceX works, launches go right not left. So 13 is a nice, reasonable, grounded in reality prediction.

Offline Hywel1995

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #22 on: 12/19/2015 03:06 AM »
i voted 9, i believe thats doable... 8 Falcon 9's and hopefully with a FH also in the mix

Online the_other_Doug

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #23 on: 12/19/2015 03:18 AM »
I voted 16, and I voted pretty early -- I think only another five or six other people had voted.  I'm seeing that 16 is now (at least at this early point) the vote leader.

I just get the vibe from everything I'm hearing from SpaceX that, if they can get a few smooth launch/land flows down, they feel prepared to kick it into high gear.  I think they feel like they want to come through 2016 flying everything on their manifest that's ready to fly.

My choice of 16 is, of course, based on seeing no more catastrophic loss-of-vehicle events.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online QuantumG

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #24 on: 12/19/2015 05:28 AM »
mass simulators count, really? Didn't vote. Probably won't.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? The slowest possible.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #25 on: 12/19/2015 03:54 PM »
I vote 16.
I reposted my reasoning I did for the launch analysis thread for the range and probable launch numbers for 2016. The main difference for 2016 vs 2015 is the number of launches on VAFB and LC39A that are scheduled. There could be combined number on these two pads ranging from 5 to 9. In order to make 16 SLC-40 launches would be a range of 7 to 11 depending on the non-SLC-40 launches. Of those SLC-40 launches there are 4 CRS scheduled, at least 1 SES in early 2026 (Jan) meaning only 2 to 6 more during the year of other payloads would be needed to make it to 16. As for payloads that could be ready to launch in 2016 that number ranges from 23 to 27. If Iridium sats are ready earlier (unlikely at this point) there could be a few more possible ready sats on top of the 23 to 27 numbers increasing the range up to 29 or more. But back in the real world to judge the likelihood of sat readiness is done by whether the sat's launch date is specified as a year, a year half, a year quarter, a month or a specific date. The more specific the higher the likelihood of the payload readiness for launch within 2016 and the higher the payload readiness likelihood the higher the likelihood that that sat will be launched in 2016.

At least 3 out of VAFB in 2016: Jason 3 and 2 Iridium Next.
https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
4 CRS flights from SLC-40
At least 1 FH from LC-39A
4 commercial sats out of SLC-40 in 1st Qtr 2016.

Just in the 1st QTR:
2 CRS
4 Commercial
1 NASA (VAFB)
=7 launches

There is a big question whether SoaceX can actually launch 6 times off of SLC-40 in 3 months.

But just counting the 1st QTR commercial with the rest of the year's commercial ignored except Iridium, there is at least 12 launches for 2016 if SpaceX only launches 4 comm sats.

Edit Added:
Gunter's space page shows the rest of 2016:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2016.htm

same 7 for 1st QTR
then 4 more in 2nd QTR: FH demo, 1 CRS and 2 Commercial
next 3 more in 3rd QTR: 1 CRS, 1- Irridium Next and a possible SES -11
finally 9 more in 4th QTR: 2FH, 1 CRS, 1-Irridium Next, Crew Demo 1, CONAE (VAFB), and 4 additional commercial

= 23
Most likely at least 4 or more listed as possible for 4th Qtr will move into 2017 that include probably 1 of the FH's.

This makes a upper end number for probable 2016 launch count of 19 :-*

I will believe this number when I see it but it does contain 4 possible VAFB and 4 possible LC-39A launches leaving 11 for SLC-40. The more likely numbers should be 3 possible for VAFB + 3 possible LC-39A + 10 SLC-40 for a total of 16 launches.

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #26 on: 12/19/2015 06:02 PM »
My overly simplistic analysis is that SpaceX was on track for 12 launches last year (6 by the end of June), while the opening post shows 19 scheduled. For 2016, there are 32 launches listed in the opening post, so 32 * 12/19 = 20.21 Therefore, I voted for 20.

Also, that is just retroactive justification since I am an optimist and arbitrarily decided on 20 before I actually did that math.

Offline Billium

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #27 on: 12/19/2015 06:06 PM »
My prediction is 14 for 2016.

With nearly 3 dozen payloads on the books for 2016, payload availability will not be a constraining factor.

They will have 2 pads available in January, 3 within 6 months, so approximately 2.5 pads for 2016. They have been able to launch 10 in 12 months previously all from 1 pad, and with less than a month in between flights, so 1 launch/month/pad is not unrealistic. With 6 from Vandenberg, 12 from SLC-40 and 6 from SLC-39A that is 24. Maybe some Vandenberg payloads wonít be available (-2) maybe falcon heavy will tie up SLC-39A longer than anticipated (-4) maybe 1 per months is high (-2), that takes us to 16. Take away 2 more because ďrockets are hardĒ that leaves 14.

Respecting core availability, Gwynne has said they have the capacity to manufacture 40 cores per year. In theory they can make enough cores for 24 launches, including 2 heavy launches. Not accounting for possible reuse. I donít know what they have been up to in the last 6 months (if manufacturing has been idle or if they have multiple cores sitting under a tent in Texas somewhere).

Honestly I donít have any idea of the real constraining factor. Is it building cores fast enough, ie this 40 cores a year is totally unrealistic and they canít even build 12? Is it they donít have enough people to process payloads? Is it that each core requires so much testing after manufacture that they can only get a few ready to go each year?

I am concerned that if they donít make at least 14 this year that multiple payloads will start to move to other providers because of delay.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #28 on: 12/19/2015 07:04 PM »
I voted "14", because that's the number of hours I've been slaving at this essay tabbed up on the other screen for.

CONSECUTIVELY

I should work for SpaceX or something.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2015 07:05 PM by The Amazing Catstronaut »
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Online savuporo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #29 on: 12/19/2015 07:07 PM »
2016: The year when SpaceX tries to out-launch ULA and Arianespace. Again ..
« Last Edit: 12/19/2015 07:08 PM by savuporo »
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Online Orbiter

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #30 on: 12/19/2015 07:08 PM »
IMHO, 7 successful launches.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R.

Offline Bubbinski

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #31 on: 12/19/2015 07:39 PM »
I'm going conservative and will say 10 launches. My sense is 2017 will be where the real action happens, SpaceX hasn't gone beyond 6 successful orbital launches per year, this is a chance to get them over the hump.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2015 07:42 PM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Online Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #32 on: 12/19/2015 08:47 PM »
After little more than a day, with 30 votes, the mean "prediction" is almost 13.
If this year's poll is like the previous polls, this value will not change substantially, even with several times as many votes as there are now.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sdsds

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #33 on: 12/20/2015 12:06 AM »
After little more than a day, with 30 votes, the mean "prediction" is almost 13.
If this year's poll is like the previous polls, this value will not change substantially, even with several times as many votes as there are now.

Not meaning to imply either optimism or pessimism, but I think the mean value might shift after the result of the Orbcomm/RTF launch is known.

(I am among the 30 "foolish" people who voted early, without all the data that will be available just as the poll is closing....)
-- sdsds --

Offline nadreck

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #34 on: 12/20/2015 12:53 AM »
After little more than a day, with 30 votes, the mean "prediction" is almost 13.
If this year's poll is like the previous polls, this value will not change substantially, even with several times as many votes as there are now.

13 was my vote for 2015, had we met it, I presume I would have gone with my prediction from January 2015 of 24, since we didn't make it I feel the momentum isn't quite there so I reigned in my prediction to 18. And I voted shortly after the poll opened, why wait till the end, it is a prediction and I feel one that is appropriate to shoot from the hip on. That doesn't mean I don't have some logic to my prediction, but I don't think that adding a few weeks will improve my logic's accuracy going out a year.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Wonger

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #35 on: 12/20/2015 01:12 AM »
I voted a BIG number I am not disclosing.  It was complete irrational exuberance and now I am embarrassed.  But...


You have to set stretching goals if you want to be an overachiever. 


edit on December 23 - for some reason, I feel much better about my big number
« Last Edit: 12/23/2015 08:16 PM by Wonger »

Online Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #36 on: 12/20/2015 06:12 AM »
Going with 16. Realistically more like 10-12, but what can I say? I'm am optimist.

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #37 on: 12/20/2015 10:27 AM »
What's with the even number bias?

(Same thing happened in the 2015 with 11. But this year 11/13/15 are all noticeably down compared to their even-numbered neighbours.)

Offline nadreck

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #38 on: 12/20/2015 01:19 PM »
What's with the even number bias?

(Same thing happened in the 2015 with 11. But this year 11/13/15 are all noticeably down compared to their even-numbered neighbours.)
If we get my projection this year I would suggest going by 2's for the steps next year but doing it all the way to 30.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline llanitedave

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #39 on: 12/20/2015 04:07 PM »
I voted 12 because anything less than that will be a disappointment.  They have a lot of catching up to do.
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

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