Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2016

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.2%)
2
2 (0.5%)
3
0 (0%)
4
2 (0.5%)
5
2 (0.5%)
6
6 (1.4%)
7
4 (0.9%)
8
16 (3.7%)
9
20 (4.6%)
10
51 (11.8%)
11
45 (10.4%)
12
84 (19.4%)
13
33 (7.6%)
14
62 (14.3%)
15
39 (9%)
16
31 (7.1%)
17
12 (2.8%)
18
7 (1.6%)
19
1 (0.2%)
20
7 (1.6%)
21-25
8 (1.8%)
26-30
1 (0.2%)
31-35
0 (0%)
More than 35!!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 434

Voting closed: 01/19/2016 05:45 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016  (Read 38634 times)

Offline Lar

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Number of SpaceX flights in 2016

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016 (Yaay that this poll even exists!!! ahem)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Totals: F9  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest
           Dragon from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions
Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

Current 2016 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan)
NET January   4   17 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 18:42:18 (or 1st half of January (TBD))
mid-January (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or December 27, 2015)
NET January 3 8 February 7 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 - 21:01 ~08:30
March 21 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 ~04:00
NET 1st quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
spring - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, CubeSats - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
May - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
June 10 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August 15- Dragon SpX-11 (CRS11) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August - NEXT contract: 3U-CubeSat (x3) - GOLauncher-2 - TBD  ???? NOT a Falcon
NET August - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-10 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - SES-11 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
October - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
NET October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS12) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Es’hail 2 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - ViaSat-2 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or Ariane 5)
4th quarter - 30+ cubesats, tubesats - NEPTUNE N5 - Tonga NOT a Falcon
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 FT - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Europasat/HellasSat-3 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or NLT 1st quarter 2017)
late - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
late - STPSat-5 - TBD - TBD  ????
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40


(last year, 2015, for ref, will be removed)
January 6 -  Dragon SpX-5 (CRS-5) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
January 23 - DSCOVR (Triana) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
February - Eutelsat 115 West B (Satmex 7), ABS 3A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
March 31 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
April 8 - Dragon SpX-6 (CRS6) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
June 13 - Dragon SpX-7 (CRS7) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd quarter - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Vandenberg SLC-4E or Canaveral SLC-39A (considered more likely)
August 13 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
August - STP-02: DSX, FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM - Falcon Heavy - SLC-39A (or late 2015)
September - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET fall -Inmarsat 5 F2/F3 (TBD) - Falcon Heavy - SLC-39A (or Proton)
December 5 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - FORMOSAT 5 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
TBD - SES-9 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40

Poll Rules
- 30 days allowed for voting
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if ORBCOMM-2 gets off this year or not. That's the way it goes, don't vote if you want to wait and see... (Update: It did. Take that into account if you haven't voted)
- No do-overs, I can't change anyone's vote and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2015 or 2016). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough. CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Scrubs and static fires do not count
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Suborbital missions such as Grasshopper and F9R tests DO NOT count.
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- An FH launch is one launch, not three, obviously...

Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back SpaceX has aggressive plans for 2016 too.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those post might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2016 07:22 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #1 on: 12/18/2015 05:51 PM »
Poll is live. I voted 12, which is the same as my vote for 2015, and it also is one of the most popular votes from 2014
Losing CRS7 really hurt their rhythm. They need to get back on track and accelerate but I do not see them getting to where I'd like them to be this year. Too many other things to do. I seriously hope they blow my prediction out of the water.

PM ME!!! ... with any errors in the links, data, if I misinterpreted the manifest, etc. NOTE: Please don't send L2 dates, etc, we have to go with what is public.  I will stop updating the manifest on or about 1 Jan, at that point it is what it is, date wise, only typos will get fixed
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #2 on: 12/18/2015 06:03 PM »
I voted 9 last year, on the "50% more than the previous year" basis.  I'm going to vote 11 this year, assuming they get 7 off in 2015 and rounding up because they've got a backlog at the moment.  I reserve my right to change my vote if they don't actually launch orbcomm this year.

Offline majormajor42

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #3 on: 12/18/2015 06:16 PM »
20, highest vote so far...I'm winning!

Voted 13 in 2015.




Don't let the current multi-day static fire delay make you too pessimistic my friends.

Just don't blow up any more primary missions and it will be all good  8)
...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline Barrie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #4 on: 12/18/2015 06:24 PM »
I voted 11, same as I voted last year.  Hoping to be spectacularly wrong.  Meaning way too low  :)

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #5 on: 12/18/2015 06:50 PM »
I voted 9 last year, on the "50% more than the previous year" basis.  I'm going to vote 11 this year, assuming they get 7 off in 2015 and rounding up because they've got a backlog at the moment.  I reserve my right to change my vote if they don't actually launch orbcomm this year.

You can "reserve the right to change your vote" all you want but a vote is a vote. NO redos. There is no way to clear one vote, only all (which will not happen)  and I set it to "no changing votes". As last year.  (so don't vote til you are sure you like that vote)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2015 06:50 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #6 on: 12/18/2015 08:06 PM »
I also voted 12. This is the third time I've voted for 12 :)

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #7 on: 12/18/2015 08:19 PM »
9. I guess they'll get a healthy tempo going but will try launching a heavy which may fail & slow things down again. It will be good to be totally wrong. All the best to them from a skeptic

Online cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #8 on: 12/18/2015 08:31 PM »



You can "reserve the right to change your vote" all you want but a vote is a vote. NO redos. There is no way to clear one vote, only all (which will not happen)  and I set it to "no changing votes". As last year.  (so don't vote til you are sure you like that vote)

Oh! Last year the pool started early Dec but we could change our votes until Dec 31.  Maybe I'm misremembering.


Offline tigerade

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #9 on: 12/18/2015 08:34 PM »
Voting 12.  I think SpaceX will pick back up the pace after this launch.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #10 on: 12/18/2015 08:39 PM »
I am tired of being practical, I am tired of being conservative. Instead, I am moving permanently to the universe of crazy fandom and outrageous optimism.  I voted 16 launches in 2016 because it sounds nice. If Falcon Heavy takes it debut in 2016 that is a bonus. 
Colonize Mars!

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #11 on: 12/18/2015 08:48 PM »
10. It's realistic. Anything more is a nice bonus.

Offline Craftyatom

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #12 on: 12/18/2015 08:55 PM »
I'm letting optimism take the wheel, but rationality work the pedals: 14.  It's as high as I can guess without entering the realm of pure fantasy, IMO.  Obviously 12 would average one each month, and they have displayed sub-monthly turnaround times for multiple launches in a row from the same pad, so it's not a horrible guess.  Given that they have 2 pads, and a third for any FH launches that go off (also maybe the Dv2 test), I think 14 is attainable.  I know more launches go from the cape than vandy, but one could think of 14 as 6 LC40 + 6 vandy + 2 LC39, which sounds plausible.

Please don't try to argue against my numbers; this was a calculation done in my head over a matter of 10 seconds, and didn't even make it to the "rough scribbling" stage, so it's hardly even an educated guess.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

Offline AndrewM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #13 on: 12/18/2015 08:56 PM »
I picked 12 because while I would like to see 16, I think 12 is reasonable if ORBCOMM launches in the next week,

Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #14 on: 12/18/2015 08:57 PM »
Going to go with Chris' choice and pick 10. I'm guessing we'll get a few bursts of rapid-fire launches with relatively big gaps in between, and several significant delays mostly relating to the newness of F9FT.

Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #15 on: 12/18/2015 08:57 PM »
12 F9s & 2FHs = 14
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Offline pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #16 on: 12/19/2015 12:07 AM »
13 sounds reasonable to me.

Offline dorkmo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #17 on: 12/19/2015 12:39 AM »
2016 we're kicking it into overdrive! im voting 18 for the lulz

Offline deadman719

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #18 on: 12/19/2015 12:53 AM »
I'll go with 11 missions in 2016.  The breakdown is as follows: one V 1.1, nine FT, and one Falcon Heavy.  That being said, I'd love to be proven wrong with more missions being flown.

Offline zodiacchris

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #19 on: 12/19/2015 12:59 AM »
Okay, who voted 1? What sort of attitude is that?  ::)
I'm going with 14, one per month plus two for the road...

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