Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 105911 times)

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #380 on: 02/18/2017 05:49 PM »
On page 16 of the GAO report it says, "The critical design review is the time in a projectís life cycle when the integrity of the productís design and its ability to meet mission requirements are assessed, and it is important that a project ís design is stable enough to warrant continuation with design and fabrication. SpaceXís final planned design review was held in August 2016; however, the program reported that a number of outstanding areas, primarily related to ground systems, still needed to be reviewed. SpaceX officials told us these areas were reviewed in November 2016."

So, the critical design review is complete. I'm not sure exactly which milestone this refers to, but it sounds like a significant development.

Offline psloss

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #381 on: 03/28/2017 07:23 PM »
From NAC HEO mtg CCP presentation today...redacted a phone number...
« Last Edit: 03/28/2017 07:23 PM by psloss »

Offline psloss

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #382 on: 03/28/2017 07:40 PM »

Offline psloss

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #383 on: 03/28/2017 07:40 PM »

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #384 on: 03/29/2017 01:14 AM »
SpaceX looks to have closed out a significant number of development milestones at the end of 2016.

It seems plausible that waiting for Block V could be the challenge that pushes the schedule to the right. I wonder if DM-1 could fly on Block IV?

Offline cebri

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #385 on: 03/29/2017 10:25 PM »
So, no news on how is the certification of the RD-180 going. 


Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #387 on: 03/29/2017 11:38 PM »
Here are the slides of the NAC meeting:

https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nac_ccp_status_march_28_20171.pdf

https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/nac-heoc

Can someone explain the schedule risks? I don't understand what those mean. Is one for Boeing and one for Spacex for starters?

Offline joek

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #388 on: 03/30/2017 12:20 AM »
Can someone explain the schedule risks? I don't understand what those mean. Is one for Boeing and one for Spacex for starters?

If you are referring to slides 6-7, the number in the matrix on the right side is the count of items in the table on the left side with that Likelihood and Consequence (LxC in the table on the left).

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #389 on: 03/30/2017 12:50 AM »
Can someone explain the schedule risks? I don't understand what those mean. Is one for Boeing and one for Spacex for starters?

If you are referring to slides 6-7, the number in the matrix on the right side is the count of items in the table on the left side with that Likelihood and Consequence (LxC in the table on the left).

Thanks, yes those are the slides I was referring to. I understand the table. What I don't understand is the actual items.

Offline deruch

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #390 on: 03/30/2017 08:00 AM »
Can someone explain the schedule risks? I don't understand what those mean. Is one for Boeing and one for Spacex for starters?

If you are referring to slides 6-7, the number in the matrix on the right side is the count of items in the table on the left side with that Likelihood and Consequence (LxC in the table on the left).

Thanks, yes those are the slides I was referring to. I understand the table. What I don't understand is the actual items.
They are 2 matrices that are showing Program risks.  In this case, "Program" means NASA's Commercial Crew Program (CCP), not specifically either of the partner programs (i.e. not vehicle specific).  The first matrix shows overall Programmatic risks, and includes considerations of cost and schedule.  The second matrix is just for health/safety issues.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #391 on: 03/30/2017 11:42 AM »
They are 2 matrices that are showing Program risks.  In this case, "Program" means NASA's Commercial Crew Program (CCP), not specifically either of the partner programs (i.e. not vehicle specific).  The first matrix shows overall Programmatic risks, and includes considerations of cost and schedule.  The second matrix is just for health/safety issues.

Okay. So, could these end up affecting the providers? I'm interested in more info, if some has it. Maybe these have been discussed elsewhere?

Requirement changes: sounds like it could be new work? Do we know more about this?
DoD Search and Rescue (Posture & Training Schedule): I imagine this is the Coast Guard/Navy's ability to go get a capsule for an emergency/off-nominal?
Ability to close LOC (Loss of Crew?) Gap: How big is this gap and what are the strategies for closing it?
Ammonia Emergency Response: Is this for a capsule on the pad or in space or both or what?


Offline SWGlassPit

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #392 on: 03/30/2017 04:56 PM »

Ammonia Emergency Response: Is this for a capsule on the pad or in space or both or what?


I couldn't say on the others, but Ammonia Emergency Response refers to a toxic atmosphere event on ISS when a USCV is docked.  Right now, with everyone coming and going on Soyuz, the procedures are "simple" in terms of how to handle an ammonia leak in the US segment.  With crew vehicles docked to both ends of station, however, it's more complicated.

Offline erioladastra

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #393 on: 04/06/2017 02:12 PM »
They are 2 matrices that are showing Program risks.  In this case, "Program" means NASA's Commercial Crew Program (CCP), not specifically either of the partner programs (i.e. not vehicle specific).  The first matrix shows overall Programmatic risks, and includes considerations of cost and schedule.  The second matrix is just for health/safety issues.

Okay. So, could these end up affecting the providers? I'm interested in more info, if some has it. Maybe these have been discussed elsewhere?

Requirement changes: sounds like it could be new work? Do we know more about this?
DoD Search and Rescue (Posture & Training Schedule): I imagine this is the Coast Guard/Navy's ability to go get a capsule for an emergency/off-nominal?
Ability to close LOC (Loss of Crew?) Gap: How big is this gap and what are the strategies for closing it?
Ammonia Emergency Response: Is this for a capsule on the pad or in space or both or what?



This is just a few, there are many more - often is new work, but definitely more work.  There is also a lot of cases where the requirement hasn't changed but the verification has.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #394 on: 06/03/2017 08:01 AM »
The 2017 AST Compendium has some interesting data.

USCV 1 and 3 are shown as Falcon 9 and USCV 2 and 4 as Atlas V.

From 2019, there are three SpaceX, one OA and one SNC cargo missions per year.

For CRS2, SpaceX is getting $900M for six missions ($150M each) and OA is getting $1,400M for six missions ($233M each). At the above flight rates, that covers two years for SpaceX and six years for OA. Cost data is not given for SNC.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Confusador

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #395 on: 06/03/2017 01:04 PM »
The 2017 AST Compendium has some interesting data.

USCV 1 and 3 are shown as Falcon 9 and USCV 2 and 4 as Atlas V.

From 2019, there are three SpaceX, one OA and one SNC cargo missions per year.

For CRS2, SpaceX is getting $900M for six missions ($150M each) and OA is getting $1,400M for six missions ($233M each). At the above flight rates, that covers two years for SpaceX and six years for OA. Cost data is not given for SNC.

Those prices seem reasonable, given the relative volumes, so the implication to me seems to be that downmass is the driving force in flight rates.  That's certainly good for SpaceX,  but could also bode well for SNC if the initial flights go well.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #396 on: 06/03/2017 02:45 PM »
The 2017 AST Compendium has some interesting data...

The AST Compendium is prepared by an outside contractor for the FAA and details in it should probably be taken with a grain of salt (the flight schedule for SpaceX CRS flights differs by an entire year from FPIP released around the same time, the $1.2B listed for the SpaceX CRS-1 extension was for all 8 flights, etc.)  It is a good high level overview of the space launch industry.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #397 on: 07/20/2017 02:23 PM »
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2017/07/20/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-flight-dates/
Quote
Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test: June 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test: August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1: February 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): June 2018

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #398 on: 07/20/2017 02:25 PM »
Did SpaceX DM-1 just move forward to February? I thought the last date we say was March 9.

Online gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #399 on: 07/20/2017 02:48 PM »
Maybe?  I doubt any of these dates are really fixed yet.

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