Author Topic: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions  (Read 39151 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Didn't want to focus on the ESA side too much as it's only a MOU style deal. Thought the future outlook was more interesting, so used that part of the teleconference and beefed up the second part of the article as a result, with a sprinkling of L2, too:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/01/dream-chasers-european-deal-opens-ambitions/

Offline Andy DC

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Absolutely love that article Chris. Great update!

Offline BrightLight

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Great article, maybe, just maybe DC will make it to orbit.

Offline yg1968

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I loved the article too!

Offline M_Puckett

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A little too heavy for the Ariane V?  That thing is positively svelte compared to Hermes and the Airane V is a more powerful booster today than it was when it was developed with the Hermes in mind.

If anything, it might have to launch with a secondary payload or ballast.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 02:31 AM by M_Puckett »

Offline heinkel174

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Speaking of the “the heavy" comment, maybe they're considering launching the DC on a stage-and-half configuration of Ariane V?

Is it even possible to directly insert the A5 core stage into a initial orbit?

Offline rcoppola

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Very exciting to hear they are on course for a 2016 orbital flight. But I'd still love to see her ride atop a Falcon 9.
After all, they are both white and would look beautiful going up.

Oh...and I love the, "Dream Chaser has many strings to her bow" line. Classic.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 03:19 AM by rcoppola »
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Offline Shuttle Endeavour

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Where will the SNC Dream Chaser be launching from?

Offline aquanaut99

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So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

Online hkultala

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #10 on: 01/09/2014 04:26 AM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?

Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #11 on: 01/09/2014 04:32 AM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?

Improved materials? Optimistic estimates on the part of SNC? Less fuel for DC?
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 04:33 AM by NovaSilisko »

Offline Halidon

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #12 on: 01/09/2014 04:41 AM »
Thanks for the great article, Chris!

I'd love for them to go more in-depth comparing their TPS to the one SNC had been planning to use.

Offline Oli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #13 on: 01/09/2014 06:21 AM »
I am sceptical.

First of all, ESA can already fly to the ISS with the Russians or whatever NASA choses as a commercial crew vehicle. That's part of the deal, right? So maybe ESA plans to contribute to ISS operations with Dreamchaser participation? (similar to the SM of Orion). I don't like the sound of that, at least not in the case of commercial crew.

In any case, its very unlikely that ESA would fund an american company to build a crew vehicle for them. I don't think that is how ESA works.

Regarding launch on the Ariane 5, that seems to be another ploy from the DLR to keep Ariane 6 from happening too soon.

« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 06:25 AM by Oli »

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #14 on: 01/09/2014 06:24 AM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?


No, look at the attached image(s). Hermes - as it had grown - was significantly larger, with more capabilities than DC.

I find the idea that DC would be too heavy for Ariane V to be very bizarre.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 06:30 AM by Lars_J »

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #15 on: 01/09/2014 06:42 AM »
Good article Chris. Thanks for that.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #16 on: 01/09/2014 07:20 AM »
I am sceptical.

First of all, ESA can already fly to the ISS with the Russians or whatever NASA choses as a commercial crew vehicle. That's part of the deal, right? So maybe ESA plans to contribute to ISS operations with Dreamchaser participation? (similar to the SM of Orion). I don't like the sound of that, at least not in the case of commercial crew.

In any case, its very unlikely that ESA would fund an american company to build a crew vehicle for them. I don't think that is how ESA works.

Regarding launch on the Ariane 5, that seems to be another ploy from the DLR to keep Ariane 6 from happening too soon.
ESA is spreading it's eggs over multiple baskets. Risk reduction. Soyuz for ISS flights. From the deal with SN it is not immediately clear that the use of DreamChaser will be for ISS flight. Actually, it is more likely that ESA will want to have orbital access for non-ISS missions.
And I don't think SN will be building DC's for ESA. It very much more likely will be that ESA will be buying DC flight services.


Offline Oli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #17 on: 01/09/2014 08:13 AM »
Quote from: woods170
ESA is spreading it's eggs over multiple baskets. Risk reduction. Soyuz for ISS flights.

ESA pays for Soyuz flights with their own developments (Columbus, ATV, Orion SM).

Quote from: woods170
Actually, it is more likely that ESA will want to have orbital access for non-ISS missions.

Manned access? I believe it when I see it. More likely ESA will cooperate with NASA on BEO missions. For some of the robotic missions mentioned in the article ESA is funding a small X-37-like vehicle that fits on Vega.

Quote from: woods170
And I don't think SN will be building DC's for ESA. It very much more likely will be that ESA will be buying DC flight services.

Which is almost the same thing.

This probably belongs in the discussion thread...


« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 08:16 AM by Oli »

Offline Covspaceman

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #18 on: 01/09/2014 08:22 AM »
Great article as usual, Chris. Exciting stuff indeed but the bit that caught my eye in particular was:

"...with references to how the Europeans may be able to offer a lighter version of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) that is currently allocated to the future Dream Chaser fleet..."

Could anyone expand on this? As Europe has no re-entry capability, I had assumed all the experience and practical knowledge of TPS is largely in the US!

Thanks,

Andrew.

Offline Oli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #19 on: 01/09/2014 08:42 AM »
Quote from: Covspaceman
Could anyone expand on this? As Europe has no re-entry capability, I had assumed all the experience and practical knowledge of TPS is largely in the US!

"In the US, metallic TPS is at a higher TRL than CMC TPS, while in Europe, CMC TPS is at a higher TRL than metallic TPS."

http://www.ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20080017096_2008016802.pdf

From 2008, maybe they plan to make it CMC.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 08:53 AM by Oli »

Offline suncity

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #20 on: 01/09/2014 09:04 AM »
Great article as usual, Chris. Exciting stuff indeed but the bit that caught my eye in particular was:

"...with references to how the Europeans may be able to offer a lighter version of the Thermal Protection System (TPS) that is currently allocated to the future Dream Chaser fleet..."

Could anyone expand on this? As Europe has no re-entry capability, I had assumed all the experience and practical knowledge of TPS is largely in the US!

Thanks,

Andrew.

Europe will get some experience soon with a maneuverable vehicle:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate_eXperimental_Vehicle

and demonstrated an Apollo-like capsule reentry in 1998:
http://cs.astrium.eads.net/sp/spacecraft-propulsion/showcase/atmospheric-re-entry-demonstrator.html


Offline Covspaceman

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #21 on: 01/09/2014 09:45 AM »
Thanks to Oli and Suncity for the links  :)

Andrew.

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #22 on: 01/09/2014 12:29 PM »
Any word on what the "upgrades" to the current ETV will be ?

Are they replacing the cones at the rear of the ETV with actual Hybrid engines, so we will be able to see powered flight later this year ? If they are going to do high-altitude flight, I assume they need the Hybrids to get up there.

Offline Chris Bergin

Great response, much appreciated!

Split this into a standalone thread to allow the update thread to remain on track and give this thread the discussion specific to the article.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #24 on: 01/09/2014 01:22 PM »
Great article Chris!  :) Very wily on the part of SNC in their talks to “internationalize” Dream Chaser.  It demonstrates their willingness to work with the international partners for ISS, establishes lines of communications and building relationships which is NASA’s plan for future space activities...
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 01:26 PM by Rocket Science »
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Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #25 on: 01/09/2014 01:58 PM »
Great article Chris!  :) Very wily on the part of SNC in their talks to “internationalize” Dream Chaser.  It demonstrates their willingness to work with the international partners for ISS, establishes lines of communications and building relationships which is NASA’s plan for future space activities...

I don't know the selection criteria for the next round, but SNC's business plan for DC just got a few extra points added. Offering actual non-ISS LEO missions to the ESA is certainly more appealing that depending on a non-existent Bigelow station for extra flights.

Offline Star One

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Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #26 on: 01/09/2014 02:55 PM »
Great article Chris!  :) Very wily on the part of SNC in their talks to “internationalize” Dream Chaser.  It demonstrates their willingness to work with the international partners for ISS, establishes lines of communications and building relationships which is NASA’s plan for future space activities...

I don't know the selection criteria for the next round, but SNC's business plan for DC just got a few extra points added. Offering actual non-ISS LEO missions to the ESA is certainly more appealing that depending on a non-existent Bigelow station for extra flights.

I know these things are hard to judge but I wonder if they have now done enough to pull ahead of Boeing in what they have to offer as a commercial crew program. Always assuming that CST-100 & DC are still playing catchup with Dragon.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 02:56 PM by Star One »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #27 on: 01/09/2014 03:06 PM »
I am sceptical.

First of all, ESA can already fly to the ISS with the Russians or whatever NASA choses as a commercial crew vehicle. That's part of the deal, right? So maybe ESA plans to contribute to ISS operations with Dreamchaser participation? (similar to the SM of Orion). I don't like the sound of that, at least not in the case of commercial crew.

In any case, its very unlikely that ESA would fund an american company to build a crew vehicle for them. I don't think that is how ESA works.

Regarding launch on the Ariane 5, that seems to be another ploy from the DLR to keep Ariane 6 from happening too soon.
ESA is spreading it's eggs over multiple baskets. Risk reduction. Soyuz for ISS flights. From the deal with SN it is not immediately clear that the use of DreamChaser will be for ISS flight. Actually, it is more likely that ESA will want to have orbital access for non-ISS missions.
And I don't think SN will be building DC's for ESA. It very much more likely will be that ESA will be buying DC flight services.

You seemed skeptical before that this study would lead to anything. Has your opinion changed on the possibility of DC4EU happening?

What is interesting is that most of the potential missions which are mentionned in the article (see quote from article below) could probably be done with an uncrewed version of DC.

Quote from: SNC
“With the start of these new relationships with ESA and DLR we are able to continue to expand the Dream Chaser Space System globally. The combined strengths of our partner space agencies, industrial companies and education institutions will significantly advance space education, exploration and, for various missions such as microgravity science, spacecraft servicing, debris removal, and materials manufacturing, provide economic benefits to all partners and strengthen U.S. and international ties.”
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 03:26 PM by yg1968 »

Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #28 on: 01/09/2014 03:15 PM »

I find the idea that DC would be too heavy for Ariane V to be very bizarre.
As do I...

Too big =/= too heavy.

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #29 on: 01/09/2014 03:20 PM »

I find the idea that DC would be too heavy for Ariane V to be very bizarre.
As do I...

Too big =/= too heavy.

Lars and I were referring to this:
Quote from: Chris's article
before adding he thinks the Dream Chaser is currently a little bit too heavy for the launcher.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 03:20 PM by Elmar Moelzer »

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #30 on: 01/09/2014 03:31 PM »
The article mentioned they wanted to put it inside a fairing for un-manned missions.

That fairing would definitely add some weight, but does it add that much ??

Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #31 on: 01/09/2014 03:43 PM »
The article mentioned they wanted to put it inside a fairing for un-manned missions.

That fairing would definitely add some weight, but does it add that much ??
I don't think he was referring to that. I think he thinks that the DC is generally to heavy for the launcher. It would be great to have some sort of follow up on that quote. It is definitely the oddest thing I have heard. Also I am wondering how much the DC would affect aerodynamics on an Ariane compared to the Atlas and how extensive the resulting changes would really have to be.

Offline pippin

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #32 on: 01/09/2014 03:46 PM »
Ariane 5 is mass-limited to LEO because it's designed as a GTO launcher.
I don't know what the ME version will be able to carry but the ES version they currently use for ATV and which has structurally reinforced first stages is no longer around, it got discontinued long ago when they knew they're going to stop ATV.
That might be what they need to fix, they probably still know how to do it but it will come at a cost.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 03:47 PM by pippin »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #33 on: 01/09/2014 03:54 PM »
Quote
The ETA will now be upgraded for one or two more flights – listed as ALT-1 and ALT-2 – beginning later this year. Both will once again be conducted at the Dryden Flight Research Center in California.

I have a couple of questions about the next flights ALT-1 and ALT-2. I am assuming that these are uncrewed flights? Do we know when they will be performed this year? I would imagine before the end of August as that is when CCiCap is supposed to end.
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 04:00 PM by yg1968 »

Offline simonbp

Ariane 5 is mass-limited to LEO because it's designed as a GTO launcher.
I don't know what the ME version will be able to carry but the ES version they currently use for ATV and which has structurally reinforced first stages is no longer around, it got discontinued long ago when they knew they're going to stop ATV.
That might be what they need to fix, they probably still know how to do it but it will come at a cost.

Well, the whole thing will be expensive. Just not as expensive as starting from scratch.

The better question is what they actually plan to do with DreamChaser. It is a vehicle designed very specifically to go to a LEO space station. ISS flights are obvious, but there are other options for that which would not need an MOU right now.

Could an Ariane-launched DreamChaser reach the future Chinese Space Station? ;)
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 04:27 PM by simonbp »

Offline Khadgars

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #35 on: 01/09/2014 04:45 PM »
Excellent article, thanks Chris.  Cool, so two more drop tests this year and first orbital test in two years very exciting.  She has a bit more lift under her wings than we thought.

Offline Chris Bergin

Excellent article, thanks Chris.  Cool, so two more drop tests this year and first orbital test in two years very exciting.  She has a bit more lift under her wings than we thought.

Thanks very much! :)

Indeed. Something to look forward to seeing her fly again!

Offline Danderman

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #37 on: 01/09/2014 06:15 PM »

Could an Ariane-launched DreamChaser reach the future Chinese Space Station? ;)

If the DC could reach ISS launched on Ariane, it can certainly reach Tiangong.

I am surprised that no one is considering that the DC could serve as the upper stage for Ariane 5, obviating the need for the launcher to carry a dedicated upper stage.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #38 on: 01/09/2014 06:19 PM »

I am surprised that no one is considering that the DC could serve as the upper stage for Ariane 5, obviating the need for the launcher to carry a dedicated upper stage.


Because it doesn't have the dV, just like on Atlas.

Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #39 on: 01/09/2014 06:24 PM »

I am surprised that no one is considering that the DC could serve as the upper stage for Ariane 5, obviating the need for the launcher to carry a dedicated upper stage.


Because it doesn't have the dV, just like on Atlas.
The Atlas first stage isn't a sustainer stage, and Centaur does a lot of the ∆V to reach orbit. The Ariane core almost reaches orbit and the ES upper stage only performs a small, 100-200 m/s burn on LEO flights. Are you sure DC isn't capable of that?

Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #40 on: 01/09/2014 06:25 PM »

I find the idea that DC would be too heavy for Ariane V to be very bizarre.
As do I...

Too big =/= too heavy.

Lars and I were referring to this:
Quote from: Chris's article
before adding he thinks the Dream Chaser is currently a little bit too heavy for the launcher.
That's very odd indeed. I read past that sentence apparently. Very strange, considering Ariane 5 ME should be capable of lifting DC all the way to GTO if it was needed.

Offline Oli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #41 on: 01/09/2014 07:39 PM »
Quote from: M129K
The Atlas first stage isn't a sustainer stage, and Centaur does a lot of the ∆V to reach orbit. The Ariane core almost reaches orbit and the ES upper stage only performs a small, 100-200 m/s burn on LEO flights. Are you sure DC isn't capable of that?

100-200 m/s? For a 20t payload a little calculation gives me 1228 m/s.

Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #42 on: 01/09/2014 07:56 PM »
Quote from: M129K
The Atlas first stage isn't a sustainer stage, and Centaur does a lot of the ∆V to reach orbit. The Ariane core almost reaches orbit and the ES upper stage only performs a small, 100-200 m/s burn on LEO flights. Are you sure DC isn't capable of that?

100-200 m/s? For a 20t payload a little calculation gives me 1228 m/s.
After rechecking myself, it gave me about 600 m/s. The EPS is short fueled for ATV missions to about 5 tons I believe. Anyway, this could very well be because ATV doesn't have the thrust to make a circ burn on it's own, forcing an upper stage to be used, and it only gives that much delta V because it is optimized with a ~5 ton prop load. DC doesn't have this thrust problem and doesn't have to require an upper stage for insertion, so it's possible the Ariane core does more of the burn to orbit. This would reduce payload of course, but if an Atlas V 402 can lift it into orbit, it shouldn't be that much of a problem.

Offline Jester

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #43 on: 01/09/2014 08:32 PM »
Ariane 5 is mass-limited to LEO because it's designed as a GTO launcher.
I don't know what the ME version will be able to carry but the ES version they currently use for ATV and which has structurally reinforced first stages is no longer around, it got discontinued long ago when they knew they're going to stop ATV.
That might be what they need to fix, they probably still know how to do it but it will come at a cost.

-ES is still around, Galileo will use it.

Offline pippin

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #44 on: 01/09/2014 08:32 PM »
With the reinforced core stage?

And can they still build them or are the ones for Galileo already built?
« Last Edit: 01/09/2014 08:33 PM by pippin »

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #45 on: 01/09/2014 08:55 PM »
Dream Chaser weighs about half about what Hermes was going to, 9-10,000kg vs 23,000kg FWIW...
« Last Edit: 01/10/2014 12:34 AM by Rocket Science »
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Offline Todd Martin

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #46 on: 01/09/2014 11:53 PM »
Great article; I've been starving for Dreamchaser news.  Like any good drama, we seem to be left with more questions than when we started.  Hopefully, we'll find out the contract value, the completion date, and the rationale behind DC using an ESA docking port.

Offline Chris Bergin

Thanks Todd!

Also a correction, thanks to Yves and his better recording of the teleconference, per the "too heavy" reference:

>What he actually said is this: "[...]but I am only a civil engineer. I have to be very careful. Civil engineers are using concrete and this is a little bit too heavy for the launcher." See 55:20 of my recording (my recording may have been easier to understand than yours for this part). (Both recordings in L2).

In a nutshell,  Professor Woerner was joking by saying that a civil engineer would have used concrete but this is too heavy for the launcher (not DC). <

So that's a good result in the end. Corrected the article.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #48 on: 01/10/2014 12:55 AM »
I found the mention of “education” as a factor interesting in their discussions...  8)
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Offline manboy

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #49 on: 01/10/2014 02:27 AM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?
It's smaller.
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Offline Elmar Moelzer

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #50 on: 01/10/2014 02:46 AM »
Thanks for the update, Chris!

Offline gosnold

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #51 on: 01/10/2014 08:51 AM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

Offline yg1968

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #52 on: 01/10/2014 01:19 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.
« Last Edit: 01/10/2014 01:35 PM by yg1968 »

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #53 on: 01/10/2014 01:35 PM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?
It's smaller.
That and the original Ariane V had less performance. An Ariane V could probably put 23tonnes to 25tonnes on LEO.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #54 on: 01/10/2014 01:48 PM »
So, is this the resurrection of Hermes?

.. with similar capasity, much much lower mass. What I'm missing here?

Dreamchaser is something like 11 tonnes, hermes was getting too heavy for ariane V which could lift something like 20 tonnes. Both have similar class of capasity. How is dream chaser so much lighter?
It's smaller.
That and the original Ariane V had less performance. An Ariane V could probably put 23tonnes to 25tonnes on LEO.

Please stop the discussion about DC being too heavy for Ariane 5. I refer to this post by Chris B. that clearly shows the full context of what was said: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33760.msg1145825#msg1145825

In short: it was never said that DC is too heavy for Ariane 5.

Offline gosnold

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #55 on: 01/10/2014 02:44 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #56 on: 01/10/2014 04:04 PM »

Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

I would have thought if they were going to buy it they would buy more than one?

Offline yg1968

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #57 on: 01/10/2014 05:21 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

On the flip side, it would increase the production of Ariane 5ME rockets (which is a good thing for Germany/ESA).

But you may be right about DC4EU being a joint effort. See this press release by ESA:
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Human_Spaceflight/International_Space_Station/Helping_make_Dream_Chaser_a_reality

Quote
At the end of an initial evaluation and planning phase, which will continue through 2014, the organisations expect to continue the relationship through a long-term agreement leading to flight operations. Both entities foresee further arrangements to continue the partnership towards the potential use of Dream Chaser for European missions.

See also this article:

Quote
Named DC4EU (Dream Chaser for European Utilization), the project is to explore ways in which the Dream Chaser®can be used to cover German and European requirements for the transportation of payloads and astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) and for deployment as a manned or unmanned space vehicle allowing German and European scientists to conduct research under weightless conditions over extended periods of time.  Given the capability which the Dream Chaser® has for reaching orbits at a substantially greater altitude than the ISS, the study will determine the extent to which it is able to supply satellites or remove decommissioned satellites from their orbits.

http://www.4-traders.com/OHB-TECHNOLOGY-AG-450142/news/OHB-Technology-AG--Contract-signed-with-DLR-for-the-study-phase-for-the-utilization-of-US-company-17459911/
« Last Edit: 01/10/2014 05:41 PM by yg1968 »

Offline USFdon

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #58 on: 01/10/2014 05:36 PM »
Quote
Quote from: adrianwyard on Today at 03:45 PM

    I am not sure if ESA ever had in mind to upgrade their Soyuz launch facilities for ESA manned flights...


Wonder if the often talked about Soyuz-2-3 could lift a Dream Chaser to orbit from Kourou as an Ariane V is a bit too powerful for the job (unless you included cargo or something) . Now that would be an interesting development. Per Anatoly Zak, its pretty close at ~11-12 tons.

Edit: Better thread for this topic

Offline DT1

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #59 on: 01/11/2014 09:46 AM »
Quote from: M129K
The Atlas first stage isn't a sustainer stage, and Centaur does a lot of the ∆V to reach orbit. The Ariane core almost reaches orbit and the ES upper stage only performs a small, 100-200 m/s burn on LEO flights. Are you sure DC isn't capable of that?

100-200 m/s? For a 20t payload a little calculation gives me 1228 m/s.
After rechecking myself, it gave me about 600 m/s. The EPS is short fueled for ATV missions to about 5 tons I believe. Anyway, this could very well be because ATV doesn't have the thrust to make a circ burn on it's own, forcing an upper stage to be used, and it only gives that much delta V because it is optimized with a ~5 ton prop load. DC doesn't have this thrust problem and doesn't have to require an upper stage for insertion, so it's possible the Ariane core does more of the burn to orbit. This would reduce payload of course, but if an Atlas V 402 can lift it into orbit, it shouldn't be that much of a problem.

I do not know the exact numbers of the delta v performed by the EPS of the Ariane 5ES (especially with the 2nd burn), but I remember that the very first presentation by ESA (approx. 15 years ago on an ILA Berlin Air Show) included no upper stage for the ATV flights to the ISS. The EPS was only added later. Maybe to keep more propellant for the ATV to reboost the station.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #60 on: 01/11/2014 06:23 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

DLR is not ESA.

Offline floss

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #61 on: 01/11/2014 11:45 PM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #62 on: 01/11/2014 11:49 PM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

Ariane 5 could potentially launch DC into a GTO - But DC would not have enough propellant to circularize the orbit, and would not be able to de-orbit from GEO either.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2014 11:51 PM by Lars_J »

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #63 on: 01/11/2014 11:54 PM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

Ariane 5 could potentially launch DC into a GTO - But DC would not have enough propellant to circularize the orbit, and would not be able to de-orbit from GEO either.
And then there's the radiation belts to deal with.
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Offline floss

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #64 on: 01/12/2014 12:14 AM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

Ariane 5 could potentially launch DC into a GTO - But DC would not have enough propellant to circularize the orbit, and would not be able to de-orbit from GEO either.
And then there's the radiation belts to deal with.


Yup but it would have a very capable upper stage behind it with a half ton extra fuel (Ariane 5 ME) opens possibility's  .Imagine a rotating Bigalow station with an arm and an a Excaliber station with a rotating arm to lower it gently to the moons surface .Talk about dreaming ).
 

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #65 on: 01/12/2014 01:26 AM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

If a spacecraft can be launched to GTO it can presumably be launched to EML-1 Transfer Orbit.

The extra propellant, radiation hardening and enhanced heat shield needed suggest a variant of the Dream Chaser would be used for EML-1 trips.

edit : spelling
« Last Edit: 01/12/2014 05:53 AM by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #66 on: 01/12/2014 05:11 AM »
Dreamchaser can be launched to GTO by Ariane 5 wonder what missions it could do in GEO rendezvous with a Bigalow station maby?

If a spacecraft can be launched to GTO it can presumably be launched to EML-1 Transfer Orbit.

The extra propellant, radiation hardening and enhanced hear shield suggest a variant of the Dream Chaser would be used for EML-1 trips.

Indeed. There is very little practical reason to put a space station at GEO. EML-1 is easier to reach and depart from, and would be a great stopping point towards moon, mars, and asteroid missions.

Online guckyfan

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #67 on: 01/12/2014 07:04 AM »
Can Dream Chaser reenter from EML-1? That would be harsh on the wings.


Online MikeAtkinson

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #68 on: 01/12/2014 07:24 AM »
Ariane 6 would not be able to lift DC to GEO or L1/L2 and it is not going to be man-rated either.

If things go to plan Ariane 5 should be phased out starting in 2021. Not much time before that for interesting DC missions.

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #69 on: 01/12/2014 08:36 AM »

Ariane 6 would not be able to lift DC to GEO or L1/L2 and it is not going to be man-rated either.

If things go to plan Ariane 5 should be phased out starting in 2021. Not much time before that for interesting DC missions.

I would not assume anything that you have listed here as being set in concrete, more likely is all of the above can change.

Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #70 on: 01/12/2014 09:15 AM »
Ariane 6 would not be able to lift DC to GEO or L1/L2 and it is not going to be man-rated either.

If things go to plan Ariane 5 should be phased out starting in 2021. Not much time before that for interesting DC missions.

Ariane 5 won't be phased out before 2025.

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #71 on: 01/12/2014 09:30 AM »

Ariane 6 would not be able to lift DC to GEO or L1/L2 and it is not going to be man-rated either.

If things go to plan Ariane 5 should be phased out starting in 2021. Not much time before that for interesting DC missions.

Ariane 5 won't be phased out before 2025.

If then. The 2021 date could not be correct being as JUICE for a start is launching in 2022 on an Ariane 5.

Offline gosnold

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #72 on: 01/12/2014 09:51 AM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

DLR is not ESA.

That's precisely my point. DLR wants to protect HSF and Ariane 5, and ESA using a DC would further that goal.

Offline Jcc

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #73 on: 01/12/2014 02:18 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #74 on: 01/12/2014 02:30 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.
A propulsion module, as in a small rocket stage? Sure. The SM is very different from that, however, as it provides life support and power as well as propulsion.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #75 on: 01/12/2014 02:41 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.
A propulsion module, as in a small rocket stage? Sure. The SM is very different from that, however, as it provides life support and power as well as propulsion.

People doing that Lego thing again.

Online MikeAtkinson

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #76 on: 01/12/2014 02:42 PM »
Ariane 6 would not be able to lift DC to GEO or L1/L2 and it is not going to be man-rated either.

If things go to plan Ariane 5 should be phased out starting in 2021. Not much time before that for interesting DC missions.

Ariane 5 won't be phased out before 2025.

Starting to be phased out is not the same as no more flights. Delta II started to be phased out in 2007, but there are sill 4 (?) launches left. The point is irrelevant of the exact date of the last Ariane 5. Europe cannot afford to overlap flights of 5 & 6 for more than a few years.

DC missions, other than unmanned to LEO, do not seem possible with Ariane 6.

Obviously, plans may change, Ariane 6 may be redesigned, Ariane 5 may not be discontinued.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #77 on: 01/12/2014 02:49 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.

According to Wiki LEO to EML-1 is a delta-v of about 3.77 km/s.  Since the current Dream Chaser can only re-enter from LEO the propulsion module's propellant tanks would probably have to be sized for a delta-v of 7.54 km/s.  The Dream Chaser has a mass of about 11,340 kg.

Offline Archibald

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #78 on: 01/12/2014 03:05 PM »
Ariane 5 FAQ  :)
Payload to LEO: 22 tons, or a couple of Dream Chasers.
Payload to GTO, 2.5 km/s: 10 tons (current variant) 12 tons (ME with Vinci) no use for DC
Payload to Earth escape, 3.1 km/s : 5 - 6 tons at best.
Core diameter: 5.2 m.
Fairing diameter: never seen any hammerhead, so presumably same diameter as the core, so that's 5.2 m too.
Dreamchaser wingspan: 7 meters, much too wide to go inside a standard fairing.

Hermes was indeed twice as heavy as DC; but it used 80's technologies and, much more importantly, it had much larger capacities. The difference between DC and Hermes is kind of difference between Orion and CST-100.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2014 04:33 PM by Archibald »

Offline Jcc

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #79 on: 01/12/2014 04:43 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.
A propulsion module, as in a small rocket stage? Sure. The SM is very different from that, however, as it provides life support and power as well as propulsion.

People doing that Lego thing again.

You have something against LEGOs?
OK, I get it, if DC has not been designed to use an add-on propulsion unit, there can be a lot of issues trying to add one, then, what is the use case? It's just that extended uses beyond transport to ISS are being discussed, so it's pertinent.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #80 on: 01/12/2014 04:58 PM »
You have something against LEGOs?
OK, I get it, if DC has not been designed to use an add-on propulsion unit, there can be a lot of issues trying to add one, then, what is the use case? It's just that extended uses beyond transport to ISS are being discussed, so it's pertinent.

No, just spaceflight hardware being treated as LEGOs.
If you want extended uses beyond transport to ISS then use purpose designed hardware and not kludging together pieces because they exist.

Offline Lar

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #81 on: 01/12/2014 06:33 PM »
You have something against LEGOs?
OK, I get it, if DC has not been designed to use an add-on propulsion unit, there can be a lot of issues trying to add one, then, what is the use case? It's just that extended uses beyond transport to ISS are being discussed, so it's pertinent.

No, just spaceflight hardware being treated as LEGOs.
If you want extended uses beyond transport to ISS then use purpose designed hardware and not kludging together pieces because they exist.
Purpose designed hardware is the best way to do anything. If cost is no object.  In the real world cost is always an object.

I'm not sure I see the use case for DC beyond LEO, but figuring out what exactly would have to be provided and how it would work would be part of costing out and doing trade studies. So I don't think it's bad to (in a fannish forum) explore what it would take.

Also, it's LEGO (as in "LEGO something"[1]) not LEGOs.. LEGO, like all brand names, is an adjective not a noun. The LEGO Group prefer that it always be rendered in ALL CAPS as that is how they do it. It's their brand. :)

1 - LEGO elements. LEGO sets. Building with my LEGO pieces. LEGO style rockets. But NEVER "LEGOs" :)  Unless you're a descriptivist... http://www.quora.com/Grammar/Whats-the-plural-of-LEGO :)
« Last Edit: 01/12/2014 06:34 PM by Lar »
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Offline M129K

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #82 on: 01/12/2014 06:49 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.
A propulsion module, as in a small rocket stage? Sure. The SM is very different from that, however, as it provides life support and power as well as propulsion.

People doing that Lego thing again.

I see no reason why Dream Chaser couldn't be used with a small rocket stage specifically designed to fit on Dream Chaser, including an adapter if that's necessary. I'm not proposing playing rocket lego with existing parts, especially not using the Orion SM on Dream Chaser. I know rockets aren't legos.

I think a propulsion module on DC would be kind of pointless as it likely can't reenter from BLEO anyway.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #83 on: 01/12/2014 06:50 PM »
Lot's of wishful thinking, dreaming and rocket-LEGO in this thread.

What Sierra Nevada, ESA and DLR have just agreed to do is STUDY possible synergies between euro-tech and DreamChaser.

Now, all I need to add is that (at last count) 98 percent of all ESA studies led to exactly nothing (other than a very substantial collection of nice looking final study reports gathering dust in ESA archives all over Europe).

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #84 on: 01/12/2014 06:50 PM »
Does anyone realistically think that DC is ever going to space?  They will probably not win the NASA contract, so where is all this development money coming from?  Yes there is a deal with the europeans  - but do you see them putting a whole lot of money into DC?  If Europeans want to go to space in the next 3-7 years- Spacex/Boeing or Soyult.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #85 on: 01/12/2014 06:54 PM »
Does anyone realistically think that DC is ever going to space?  They will probably not win the NASA contract, so where is all this development money coming from?  Yes there is a deal with the europeans  - but do you see them putting a whole lot of money into DC?  If Europeans want to go to space in the next 3-7 years- Spacex/Boeing or Soyult.
ESA is not exactly a huge cash-cow right now. Not with the financial crisis having hit Europe particularly hard. And it never was a cash-cow to begin with; with only a quarter of the annual budget of NASA. Chances of ESA/DLR inputting substantial amounts of money into DC (think 10's to 100's of millions of Euro's) are very slim.
The current studies into synergies are dirt-cheap. Getting into anything serious beyond that is not.

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #86 on: 01/12/2014 07:09 PM »

Also, it's LEGO (as in "LEGO something"[1]) not LEGOs.. LEGO, like all brand names, is an adjective not a noun. The LEGO Group prefer that it always be rendered in ALL CAPS as that is how they do it. It's their brand. :)


Been calling it LEGOs since I was a kid and will continue to do so.  It has been noun in my family for 4 generations

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #87 on: 01/12/2014 07:10 PM »

Purpose designed hardware is the best way to do anything. If cost is no object.  In the real world cost is always an object.


Kludging is sometimes just as or even more expensive than purpose built

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #88 on: 01/12/2014 07:37 PM »

I see no reason why Dream Chaser couldn't be used with a small rocket stage specifically designed to fit on Dream Chaser, including an adapter if that's necessary. I'm not proposing playing rocket lego with existing parts, especially not using the Orion SM on Dream Chaser. I know rockets aren't legos.

I think a propulsion module on DC would be kind of pointless as it likely can't reenter from BLEO anyway.

The shape it's self is supposedly usable for BLEO reentry.

I read somewhere they'd need to add something like 80kg of ablative to the hottest parts for a lunar return.

Keep in mind one of the competing designs for the CEV early on was a lifting body.

As for the ESA using DC I think they might just be buying flights launched from the US an Atlas V vs launching it on one of their own LVs.

This would probably be the cheapest solution as it probably would take a lot of wind tunnel testing and modeling to adapt it to another LV.

On speculation of a ESA LV being used I do wonder could the heavy version of Ariane 6 lift it.
That vehicle might be better able to handle higher bending stresses though DC would be very close to the estimated max LEO payload.

« Last Edit: 01/12/2014 07:47 PM by Patchouli »

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #89 on: 01/12/2014 08:21 PM »
Does anyone realistically think that DC is ever going to space?  They will probably not win the NASA contract, so where is all this development money coming from?  Yes there is a deal with the europeans  - but do you see them putting a whole lot of money into DC?  If Europeans want to go to space in the next 3-7 years- Spacex/Boeing or Soyult.
ESA is not exactly a huge cash-cow right now. Not with the financial crisis having hit Europe particularly hard. And it never was a cash-cow to begin with; with only a quarter of the annual budget of NASA. Chances of ESA/DLR inputting substantial amounts of money into DC (think 10's to 100's of millions of Euro's) are very slim.
The current studies into synergies are dirt-cheap. Getting into anything serious beyond that is not.
Yet, I was surpised at the amount of study money. Do I remember correctly and the last study for evolving the ATV into a return capsule was like 80M Euro? Those study contracts are hefty.

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #90 on: 01/12/2014 08:41 PM »
Does anyone realistically think that DC is ever going to space?  They will probably not win the NASA contract, so where is all this development money coming from?  Yes there is a deal with the europeans  - but do you see them putting a whole lot of money into DC?  If Europeans want to go to space in the next 3-7 years- Spacex/Boeing or Soyult.

I totally agree with you.

Tricky one there.

I do believe Dream Chaser, or at least the OTV that Lockheed is building for them, is going to space in 2016.
It's uncertain what the future is beyond that.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #91 on: 01/13/2014 07:01 AM »
Does anyone realistically think that DC is ever going to space?  They will probably not win the NASA contract, so where is all this development money coming from?  Yes there is a deal with the europeans  - but do you see them putting a whole lot of money into DC?  If Europeans want to go to space in the next 3-7 years- Spacex/Boeing or Soyult.

I totally agree with you.
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Looks like it. Hilarious...

Offline Todd Martin

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #92 on: 01/13/2014 09:04 PM »
The Europeans currently fly astronauts to the ISS via Soyuz.  If Boeing or Sierra Nevada win the Commercial Crew contract, the Atlas V 402 rocket would be used as the launch vehicle.  Note that NASA just paid $187 Million dollars for an Atlas 401 rocket to launch MAVEN, and that wasn't man-rated.

From a cost perspective, launching Europeans to ISS may be cheaper for ESA with DC on an Ariane 5 than paying NASA with Commercial Crew.  Ariane 5 costs are $200 Million, but the money stays in Europe and helps them with fixed costs & flight rate.  Ideally, there would be some way to take along some cargo on each flight as well, to take advantage of the launch vehicle's performance.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #93 on: 01/13/2014 09:08 PM »

From a cost perspective, launching Europeans to ISS may be cheaper for ESA with DC on an Ariane


That isnt going to happen

Offline Go4TLI

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #94 on: 01/13/2014 09:15 PM »
The Europeans currently fly astronauts to the ISS via Soyuz.  If Boeing or Sierra Nevada win the Commercial Crew contract, the Atlas V 402 rocket would be used as the launch vehicle.  Note that NASA just paid $187 Million dollars for an Atlas 401 rocket to launch MAVEN, and that wasn't man-rated.

From a cost perspective, launching Europeans to ISS may be cheaper for ESA with DC on an Ariane 5 than paying NASA with Commercial Crew.  Ariane 5 costs are $200 Million, but the money stays in Europe and helps them with fixed costs & flight rate.  Ideally, there would be some way to take along some cargo on each flight as well, to take advantage of the launch vehicle's performance.

The Europeans do not pay at all for their astronauts to be launched to the ISS.  It is the US that pays for all USOS crews (i.e. Americans, Europeans, Canadians and Japanese).  It was a barter agreement that the US would take that role, however, with retirement of the shuttle fleet that barter remained in place and now that money is diverted to the Russians via the US govt. 

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #95 on: 01/13/2014 09:16 PM »
that is not the cost of an Atlas.  That is the launch service cost of MAVEN.  There are many other costs rolled up in that number.  Also, manrating only going to have a minor cost impact limited to the extra avionics involved.
Isn't that extra RL10 going to cost a significant amount? Is a 402 going to cost around the same as an 421?

Offline Todd Martin

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #96 on: 01/14/2014 06:41 PM »
Commercial crew launches on Atlas will not be immune to the price increases.

"The last Atlas launcher chosen by NASA was for the MAVEN mission to Mars scheduled to lift off in November 2013. The $187 million contract was announced in October and provides for launch on an Atlas 5-401 booster, the rocket's most basic configuration with no solid rocket boosters, a 4-meter payload fairing and a single-engine Centaur upper stage.

Three years before NASA announced the MAVEN launch contract, the space agency signed a deal to lift the next Landsat remote sensing satellite on the same version of the Atlas 5 rocket for $124 million.

Lynn Cline, deputy associate administrator for NASA's space operations mission directorate, told an agency advisory panel last month the cost of the Atlas 5-401 is expected to rise by 17 percent over MAVEN's $187 million contract value for launches in 2016 and 30 percent for missions in 2018" per Spaceflight Now.

The Atlas V has 9 flights scheduled for 2014.  All of them are US Government launches.  Ariane V has 13 launches, including many commercial satellites.  Clearly, Ariane V is cheaper or the market would be putting commercial launches on Atlas instead.  Arianespace is also in the midst of cost reductions, lowering the cost of the vehicle with faster turnaround and fewer staff.

I don't think it is unreasonable for ESA to conduct a study to see if Ariane V is cheaper than Atlas with DC.  I also believe that the barter agreement is neither "free money" nor will it necessarily last through the operational life of ISS.   



Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #97 on: 01/14/2014 06:49 PM »
ULA is doing a lot to control costs right now, more than they've done in the recent past.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #98 on: 01/14/2014 06:55 PM »

I don't think it is unreasonable for ESA to conduct a study to see if Ariane V is cheaper than Atlas with DC.   


What says SNC is going to allow DC to fly on Ariane?  SNC may not want to sell DC's but just seats on DC.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #99 on: 01/14/2014 08:04 PM »

I don't think it is unreasonable for ESA to conduct a study to see if Ariane V is cheaper than Atlas with DC.   


What says SNC is going to allow DC to fly on Ariane?  SNC may not want to sell DC's but just seats on DC.
That is very likely the exact business model that will be applied if and when ESA decides to fly crew on DC. ESA is not all that much in the business of buying spacecraft from non-European third parties. They do buy services though.

Offline Altonity

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #100 on: 01/15/2014 01:27 PM »
I really hope that this is one of those hundred studies that becomes reality and we will see DC in some ESA action. If SNC doesn't get commercial crew contract they may find new business opportunities with this.

Offline Chris Bergin

SNC pass Milestone 7 for CCiCAP.

Allow me to write an article on this, as opposed to falling over each other to post a link to a site that copies and pastes the press release, or I'll come round to your house and tip over a table in disgust or something ;)

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #102 on: 01/16/2014 06:21 PM »

The Atlas V has 9 flights scheduled for 2014.  All of them are US Government launches.

No, there is WorldView 3

Offline rcoppola

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #103 on: 01/16/2014 06:54 PM »
And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.
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Offline BrightLight

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #104 on: 01/16/2014 07:00 PM »
SNC pass Milestone 7 for CCiCAP.

Allow me to write an article on this, as opposed to falling over each other to post a link to a site that copies and pastes the press release, or I'll come round to your house and tip over a table in disgust or something ;)
You are free to come to my house and tip over a table - although you won't get any beer from me.

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #105 on: 01/16/2014 07:03 PM »

And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.

Offline faramund

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #106 on: 01/16/2014 07:22 PM »

And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.

I think its mainly their launch costs, and the way they have been increased over time. But I also think that that's what usually happens with monopolies. However it now sounds like they are becoming more efficient now that they are under more competition. Who knows, over time they might even regain the positive aspects of how they were earlier thought of.

Offline simonbp


I don't think it is unreasonable for ESA to conduct a study to see if Ariane V is cheaper than Atlas with DC.   


What says SNC is going to allow DC to fly on Ariane?  SNC may not want to sell DC's but just seats on DC.

I believe it was mentioned at the press conference that they (ESA+DLR+SNC) would study the idea. So, SNC is apparently potentially open to the idea, but it's not anything more than an idea right now.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #108 on: 01/16/2014 08:48 PM »

And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.
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Offline BrightLight

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #109 on: 01/16/2014 08:54 PM »

And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.
Not everybody, just the loud ones... ;)
From what I've read, LM recently is working on improved manufacturing techniques to lower costs without sacrificing quality - I am looking forward to seeing the integrated systems costs as I expect that competition is driving ULA to new and different approaches - it will be interesting to see cost comparisons between ULA and SpaceX

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #110 on: 01/16/2014 09:45 PM »
....
The Atlas V has 9 flights scheduled for 2014. ...
...interestingly, there are 6 Delta flights (if you include the two Delta II flights) scheduled for 2014, too. That's 15 flights for ULA this year (though next year it's scheduled as 12, with 10 of them on Atlas V... SpaceX has a /chance/ of catching up to them in 2015), compared to 11 in 2013, and 10 in 2012. SpaceX is also gearing up, probably will get 5 to 7 launches in this year. Plus, 3 Antares flights in 2014 are likely. It's looking good for the US launch industry in 2014!

It's not a zero-sum game. The more competitive everyone is, the more the market in general will grow. It's good especially for the US space sector (though everyone benefits).
« Last Edit: 01/16/2014 09:45 PM by Robotbeat »
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Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #111 on: 01/17/2014 08:41 AM »


And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.

I think its mainly their launch costs, and the way they have been increased over time. But I also think that that's what usually happens with monopolies. However it now sounds like they are becoming more efficient now that they are under more competition. Who knows, over time they might even regain the positive aspects of how they were earlier thought of.

It just seems odd to complain about success, for when you get down to the basics ULA are very successfully at what they do.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #112 on: 01/17/2014 10:15 AM »


And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.

I think its mainly their launch costs, and the way they have been increased over time. But I also think that that's what usually happens with monopolies. However it now sounds like they are becoming more efficient now that they are under more competition. Who knows, over time they might even regain the positive aspects of how they were earlier thought of.

It just seems odd to complain about success, for when you get down to the basics ULA are very successfully at what they do.
Correct. They are extremely succesfull at what they do. People seem to fall primarily over the ever-increasing cost of the things ULA does.

Offline Star One

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #113 on: 01/17/2014 03:03 PM »



And frankly what does it matter if all their launches or most of them are for the Government. Who else was supposed to launch our planetary missions like curiosity or our critically important spy, weather and Armed Services Communications Sats.?

And now enter SpaceX that will add some competition for many providers including ULA to become more flexible on costs and all that implies. It's a good thing. But man oh man, can we give ULA a break once and a while?

Let's see how competitive SNC's proposal is to NASA for CC with regards to flying on an AtlasV.  I hope ULA finds a way to dramatically lower costs. We need a strong and vibrant AtlasV family of launchers along with the F9 to ensure we have cost effective and reliable access to space for our crews and cargo.

Also, I suspect the timing of much of SNC's latest globe trotting has more to do with their projections on where they will fit in with the August CC selections.

I've never quite got why it seems so popular to run ULA down.

I think its mainly their launch costs, and the way they have been increased over time. But I also think that that's what usually happens with monopolies. However it now sounds like they are becoming more efficient now that they are under more competition. Who knows, over time they might even regain the positive aspects of how they were earlier thought of.

It just seems odd to complain about success, for when you get down to the basics ULA are very successfully at what they do.
Correct. They are extremely succesfull at what they do. People seem to fall primarily over the ever-increasing cost of the things ULA does.

In relation to this could ULA price themselves out of being DC's carrier launcher?

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #114 on: 01/17/2014 04:10 PM »
From what I've read, LM recently is working on improved manufacturing techniques to lower costs without sacrificing quality - I am looking forward to seeing the integrated systems costs as I expect that competition is driving ULA to new and different approaches - it will be interesting to see cost comparisons between ULA and SpaceX

How is what LM is doing related to ULA?

Offline newpylong

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #115 on: 01/17/2014 04:52 PM »
....
The Atlas V has 9 flights scheduled for 2014. ...
...interestingly, there are 6 Delta flights (if you include the two Delta II flights) scheduled for 2014, too. That's 15 flights for ULA this year (though next year it's scheduled as 12, with 10 of them on Atlas V... SpaceX has a /chance/ of catching up to them in 2015), compared to 11 in 2013, and 10 in 2012. SpaceX is also gearing up, probably will get 5 to 7 launches in this year. Plus, 3 Antares flights in 2014 are likely. It's looking good for the US launch industry in 2014!

It's not a zero-sum game. The more competitive everyone is, the more the market in general will grow. It's good especially for the US space sector (though everyone benefits).

This X 2.

Offline BrightLight

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #116 on: 01/17/2014 05:02 PM »
From what I've read, LM recently is working on improved manufacturing techniques to lower costs without sacrificing quality - I am looking forward to seeing the integrated systems costs as I expect that competition is driving ULA to new and different approaches - it will be interesting to see cost comparisons between ULA and SpaceX

How is what LM is doing related to ULA?
LM is looking at ways to reduce cost in manufacturing might translate to ULA reduced cost on Atlas

Offline Jim

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #117 on: 01/17/2014 06:20 PM »
LM is looking at ways to reduce cost in manufacturing might translate to ULA reduced cost on Atlas

LM has no direct involvement in ULA.   ULA is totally separate from LM and Boeing.  There is no flow of information between the companies.  Any manufacturing improvements are done by ULA and ULA alone.  LM has no role in Atlas production or operations.

Offline Oli

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #118 on: 01/19/2014 02:27 AM »

Dordain said at a press conference this friday that it was SNC who approached ESA and ESA has no intention whatsoever to influence the commercial crew selection process.

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #119 on: 01/19/2014 03:09 PM »

Dordain said at a press conference this friday that it was SNC who approached ESA and ESA has no intention whatsoever to influence the commercial crew selection process.

Dordain also said that if Boeing and/or SpaceX would approach ESA for help then ESA would be happy to provide the same sort of assistence as they are providing to SNC now.

Offline Prober

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #120 on: 01/21/2014 03:28 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

The launcher is European why would the spacecraft be an issue if this was for the ISS?

Let me throw this idea out there...... Couldn't the ESA partner with the USA as a replacement for Soyuz seat purchase?

If the concern is loss of commercial launches to SpaceX;   It could be sold as a new commercial market for the ESA?

your thoughts...
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Offline Prober

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #121 on: 01/21/2014 03:41 PM »
Could a separate propulsion module be adapted to DC? Such as the ATV SM is being adapted to Orion?
That would be more European tech content.

How about the Vega upper stage?
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #122 on: 01/21/2014 04:08 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

The launcher is European why would the spacecraft be an issue if this was for the ISS?

Let me throw this idea out there...... Couldn't the ESA partner with the USA as a replacement for Soyuz seat purchase?

If the concern is loss of commercial launches to SpaceX;   It could be sold as a new commercial market for the ESA?

your thoughts...
You're still exporting a lot of cash. The issue isn't money going to SpaceX (could as well be ULA), the issue is money going to a domestic launch and spacecraft company. If it's not domestic, it's hard to sell to the public. You don't get the multiplier effect (unless there's reciprocal trade).

EDIT: The question is: do you want to support the European launch industry or the domestic launch industry?
« Last Edit: 01/21/2014 04:09 PM by Robotbeat »
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Offline Prober

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Re: Dream Chaser's European deal points to multi-role ambitions
« Reply #123 on: 01/21/2014 04:40 PM »
Isn't ITAR going to be a problem for Europeans? For instance if they want to refurbish the craft themselves between launches?

I am not an expert on ITAR but I don't think that SNC would sell a DC to ESA. They would rent it and SNC (or one of their U.S. subcontractors) would operate it. I believe that there are efforts to remove spacecrafts from ITAR. But that has yet to be done.

Well it would seem to go against the ESA "buy european" policy then. I was thinking DLR might buy a DC on its own funds (no political problems with ESA in this case) and then ESA could operate it with european industries doing the maintenance/refurbishment. But it is too early to tell anyway.

The launcher is European why would the spacecraft be an issue if this was for the ISS?

Let me throw this idea out there...... Couldn't the ESA partner with the USA as a replacement for Soyuz seat purchase?

If the concern is loss of commercial launches to SpaceX;   It could be sold as a new commercial market for the ESA?

your thoughts...
You're still exporting a lot of cash. The issue isn't money going to SpaceX (could as well be ULA), the issue is money going to a domestic launch and spacecraft company. If it's not domestic, it's hard to sell to the public. You don't get the multiplier effect (unless there's reciprocal trade).

EDIT: The question is: do you want to support the European launch industry or the domestic launch industry?

No, you misread. I was talking about the concerns the Europeans are having with loss of Commercial launches to SpaceX.   My questions move them up market to HSL

As I'm looking at this you might be transferring seats on a Soyuz to Seats on an American spacecraft.   Only difference its launched from a euro spaceport.  Not saying I like it 100% or anything.  It's just thinking out loud.

As for cash ...we have a barter agreement. 

The next round of cash for CC is avail.   Might be the perfect time to do this.
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