Author Topic: Bigelow Aerospace Update and Discussion Thread (3)  (Read 661162 times)

Offline ChefPat

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #140 on: 02/14/2013 02:11 pm »
More or less -

billionaire RTB is an alien collaborator who has an ITAR exemption, so therefore he wants to launch and rain down space weapons from his space city to enslave us all!!!

 ::)


Playing Politics with Commercial Crew is Un-American!!!

Offline Orbital Debris

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #141 on: 02/15/2013 03:17 am »
The truth is stranger than fiction.  Maybe not stranger than Jesse's fantasy, but strange nonetheless.

Offline Prober

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Offline Comga

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #143 on: 02/15/2013 05:32 pm »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

Quote
"I would think that on board the International Space Station privacy is difficult to find and they're always complaining about having some place to sleep where they're not bothered by other people," said Bigelow.

I thought that astronauts wouldn't be going into BEAM except to retrieve data.

Quote
Bigelow is also working on another project which involves leasing space service stations to NASA.

I think there are multiple errors in this one statement.

Quote
"One of the reasons I am studying mechanical engineering is because I had one day hoped to work for NASA or for a NASA contractor," Lopez told FOX5.

I wish him luck, but hope he exapnds his search parameters when looking for work in aerospace.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #144 on: 02/16/2013 07:17 am »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

"The spacecraft will act as a new room on the International Space Station. More than likely the inflatable structure will be used for storage and additional sleeping quarters."

If people are going to be sleeping in the BEAM it will need some life support.  They may get away with lights and fans to blow air around.

Offline Jim

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #145 on: 02/16/2013 12:07 pm »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

"The spacecraft will act as a new room on the International Space Station. More than likely the inflatable structure will be used for storage and additional sleeping quarters."

If people are going to be sleeping in the BEAM it will need some life support.  They may get away with lights and fans to blow air around.

That is not a legitimate source.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 12:11 pm by Jim »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #146 on: 02/16/2013 01:36 pm »
Jesse Ventura Exposing Robert Bigelow and his Alien Cronies. ;) http://www.youtube.com/v/zKq667cEUkA?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0

That was really funny! Highly entertaining! They include SpaceX in the conspiracy as they will provide transportation to the habitats. Bigelow and his cronies want to use his habitats to escape when the aliens invade us...
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 01:45 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #147 on: 02/16/2013 01:44 pm »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

"The spacecraft will act as a new room on the International Space Station. More than likely the inflatable structure will be used for storage and additional sleeping quarters."

If people are going to be sleeping in the BEAM it will need some life support.  They may get away with lights and fans to blow air around.

That is not a legitimate source.

Their source is Bigelow. But I think that Bigelow is trying to say that it could be used for that (not that it will). But regardless of what Bigelow says, NASA said that it's more of a technology test module that will not be used for anything. It will be closed most of the time.

Quote
"I would think that on board the International Space Station privacy is difficult to find and they're always complaining about having some place to sleep where they're not bothered by other people," said Bigelow.[équote]
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 07:35 pm by yg1968 »

Offline R7

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #148 on: 02/16/2013 01:45 pm »
Drive-by trollX originated BA330 discussion in SpaceX general so thought I'd divert it to here.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31025.msg1013490#msg1013490

by info there and rereading this thread I have couple questions, sorry if rehashing old faqs.

Bigelow had interesting wording in the BEAM announcement:

Quote
By the end of 2016 we will have two 330s ready to fly

Is the plan to find somebody else to pay for launching them?

Bigelow pages give $25M quote for 110m3 two month lease and say

Quote
Also, potential clients should note that as opposed to the ISS, where astronauts dedicate the lion's share of their time to supporting station operations and maintenance, astronauts aboard the Alpha Station will be able to focus exclusively on their own experiments and activities

Even if all three sections (I presume there are three) fully occupied it's $37.5M/month for Bigelow. Is that enough for all the maintenance, and who is going to do it on the station? Does food/water cost extra or is customer supposed to provide those themselves?

$25M per year for "naming rights", really? If I lease a section and start calling it "Frank" without paying for naming rights do I get litigated?
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #149 on: 02/16/2013 01:55 pm »
My understanding from their website is that the $26.25M includes a 10 to 60 day (non-exclusive) stay on the station. I am assuming that the price includes food.

I am not sure if the cargo would be brought separately or if it would fit on the Dragonrider or CST-100.

The naming rights are for the entire station or for one of the two modules.

Bigelow will have to pay for getting the BA-330 to space. It's not clear what rocket would be contracted to do so. Bigelow has a deposit with SpaceX. So probably SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 02:15 pm by yg1968 »

Offline R7

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #150 on: 02/16/2013 02:00 pm »
My understanding from their website is that the $26.25M includes a 10 to 60 day (non-exclusive) stay on the station

I understood $26.25M as the flight cost per seat (and that goes to SpaceX alone). If you want to stay, you have to lease a section for $25M. Does not say though how many people can/is allowed to stay in one section. Or maybe I just missed that.

edit: now I get it, $26.25M for non-exclusive stay, in some 'public section'. But if SpaceX takes Dragon Rider cut from that what's left for Bigelow?
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 02:08 pm by R7 »
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #151 on: 02/16/2013 02:08 pm »
My understanding from their website is that the $26.25M includes a 10 to 60 day (non-exclusive) stay on the station

I understood $26.25M as the flight cost per seat (and that goes to SpaceX alone). If you want to stay, you have to lease a section for $25M. Does not say though how many people can/is allowed to stay in one section. Or maybe I just missed that.

No the extra $25M is if you want exclusive rights to a third of the station. If you don't want to pay for the exclusive rights, you only get access to the shared research facilities. 

Quote
Astronaut Flights: For countries, companies, or even visiting individuals that wish to utilize SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon capsule, Bigelow Aerospace will be able to transport an astronaut to the Alpha Station for only $26.25 million. Using Boeing's CST-100 capsule and the Atlas V rocket, astronauts can be launched to the Alpha Station for $36.75 million per seat. In stark contrast to the short stays of a week or so aboard the ISS that we have seen wealthy individuals pay as much as $40 million for, astronauts visiting the Bigelow station will enjoy 10 - 60 days in orbit. During this time, visiting astronauts will be granted access to the Alpha Station's shared research facilities. Examples of available equipment include a centrifuge, glove-box, microscope, furnace, and freezer. Also, potential clients should note that as opposed to the ISS, where astronauts dedicate the lion's share of their time to supporting station operations and maintenance, astronauts aboard the Alpha Station will be able to focus exclusively on their own experiments and activities, ensuring that both nations and companies can gain full value from their investment in a human spaceflight program.

P.S. I have updated my post above for your other questions.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 02:09 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #152 on: 02/16/2013 02:19 pm »
My understanding from their website is that the $26.25M includes a 10 to 60 day (non-exclusive) stay on the station

I understood $26.25M as the flight cost per seat (and that goes to SpaceX alone). If you want to stay, you have to lease a section for $25M. Does not say though how many people can/is allowed to stay in one section. Or maybe I just missed that.

edit: now I get it, $26.25M for non-exclusive stay, in some 'public section'. But if SpaceX takes Dragon Rider cut from that what's left for Bigelow?

I don't know. I am guessing that Bigelow gets part of the cut on the transportation. I would also guess that Bigelow will give priority to clients that rent a module for 60 days. The other clients would be the excess seats if any and their stay would probably be shorter than 60 days (likely 10 days). 
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 02:20 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Prober

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #153 on: 02/16/2013 02:26 pm »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

"The spacecraft will act as a new room on the International Space Station. More than likely the inflatable structure will be used for storage and additional sleeping quarters."

If people are going to be sleeping in the BEAM it will need some life support.  They may get away with lights and fans to blow air around.

That is not a legitimate source.

http://bcove.me/9jaktfbw   video story   http://www.ktnv.com/news/local/187216761.html
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Offline R7

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #154 on: 02/16/2013 02:47 pm »
http://bcove.me/9jaktfbw   video story   http://www.ktnv.com/news/local/187216761.html

Especially the written article seems to confuse BEAM with BA330.
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #155 on: 02/16/2013 02:50 pm »

Could you be more vague, I almost know what you're talking about.. okay, I don't, what "NASA presentation" are you talking about?

Moved here from the SpaceX rational thread.

I was referring to the NASA Bigelow announcement of the BEAM module.

http://www.8newsnow.com/category/28259/8-news-now-video?autoStart=true&topVideoCatNo=default&clipId=8198764

At 2:20 Bigelow announces that he will spend another 250 Million $ to build two BA 330 modules.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 03:30 pm by guckyfan »

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #156 on: 02/16/2013 05:43 pm »
So if to build a BA330 costs $125M and then to launch it on an FH costs an additional $80M+ then each module will have a capitol cost of $205M. If each section is rented for $25M for 2 months then a BA330 module total max revenue would be ~$450M per year. If 3 cargo flights are needed to resupply the module (at ~$100M each) and other operation support costs per module per year of $50M then $100M above operation costs is made each year. If the module has a 5 year lifespan then total available after paying off the capital investment for profit is ~$300M per module on just a $200M investment, a 150% ROI.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #157 on: 02/16/2013 05:55 pm »
Local bit on the Beam contract:
 
http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/20609189/nasa-makes-17m-deal-with-north-las-vegas-bigelow-aerospace

"The spacecraft will act as a new room on the International Space Station. More than likely the inflatable structure will be used for storage and additional sleeping quarters."

If people are going to be sleeping in the BEAM it will need some life support.  They may get away with lights and fans to blow air around.

That is not a legitimate source.

http://bcove.me/9jaktfbw   video story   http://www.ktnv.com/news/local/187216761.html

With life support the BEAM is just a cupboard.  It is not a good idea to sleep in a cupboard.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #158 on: 02/16/2013 05:55 pm »
So if to build a BA330 costs $125M and then to launch it on an FH costs an additional $80M+ then each module will have a capitol cost of $205M. If each section is rented for $25M for 2 months then a BA330 module total max revenue would be ~$450M per year. If 3 cargo flights are needed to resupply the module (at ~$100M each) and other operation support costs per module per year of $50M then $100M above operation costs is made each year. If the module has a 5 year lifespan then total available after paying off the capital investment for profit is ~$300M per module on just a $200M investment, a 150% ROI.

But that assumes an occupancy rate of 100%.  How likely that you can rent the whole module for 2 months?  That is not a lot of money - people are currently spending $30 millions for days on ISS.  That is not including the 6 - 12 months needed for training in Russia.  Now if training was only 3 months in the US and the patron gets a month+ on the station--I think demand would go up.  Especially if you don't have to wait years for a chance to do an experiment or go on a trip.  If you could book it like a airline ticket and longest that you would have to wait was 12 -18 months that may also increase demand.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Bigelow Aerospace Update Thread (3)
« Reply #159 on: 02/16/2013 06:12 pm »
So if to build a BA330 costs $125M and then to launch it on an FH costs an additional $80M+ then each module will have a capitol cost of $205M. If each section is rented for $25M for 2 months then a BA330 module total max revenue would be ~$450M per year. If 3 cargo flights are needed to resupply the module (at ~$100M each) and other operation support costs per module per year of $50M then $100M above operation costs is made each year. If the module has a 5 year lifespan then total available after paying off the capital investment for profit is ~$300M per module on just a $200M investment, a 150% ROI.

But that assumes an occupancy rate of 100%.  How likely that you can rent the whole module for 2 months?  That is not a lot of money - people are currently spending $30 millions for days on ISS.  That is not including the 6 - 12 months needed for training in Russia.  Now if training was only 3 months in the US and the patron gets a month+ on the station--I think demand would go up.  Especially if you don't have to wait years for a chance to do an experiment or go on a trip.  If you could book it like a airline ticket and longest that you would have to wait was 12 -18 months that may also increase demand.

The break even point looks to be at ~33% occupancy rate between operational costs and revenue. But this rate will not pay off the capital investment so actually it is not a good occupancy rate to run at. An occupancy rate of 66% will make an ROI after 5 years of just ~25%. $250M(clearing $50M per year above operational costs) - $200M capital costs = $50M ROI.

PS. Remember that these are estimates "WAGs" based on other estimates. Do not construe them as gospel. It is a model of what to expect and to determine if Bigelow can possibly actually make money at operating these modules.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2013 06:18 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

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