Poll

How many SpaceX do you anticipate in 2013?

1
7 (2.6%)
2
22 (8%)
3
69 (25.2%)
4
116 (42.3%)
5
40 (14.6%)
More than 5
20 (7.3%)

Total Members Voted: 274

Voting closed: 12/23/2013 05:50 AM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013  (Read 139069 times)

Offline tigerade

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POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« on: 12/23/2012 05:50 AM »
Number of SpaceX flights in 2013

Previous Thread
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0

Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

Current 2013 SpaceX Flights Scheduled (According to Salo's Thread)
March 1 - Dragon CRS2, CUSat 1&2 - Falcon 9 v1.0 - Canaveral SLC-40
April - Cassiope, POPACS (x6) (TBD) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June - SES-8 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or Ariane 5ECA)
August - Orbcomm 2G (x8) - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2014)
September 30  - Dragon CRS3, CUNYSAT 1, Hermes 2, LMRSat, TechCube 1, All-Star-THEIA, FIREBIRD 1, FIREBIRD 2, Ho‘oponopono 2 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - Thaicom 6 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 2014)


Rationale for "Number of Flights"
The reason I requested the original thread from Chris was because I wanted a poll, as this is a hot topic of discussion.  But this time around, I'm a L2 member and can create my own polls.  Yay!  :)  (See above tab for L2 membership info).  Everyone here on the SpaceX forum of NSF has some interested on the flight rate of this new company.  Just like a child going through school, it's exciting to see SpaceX grow up and succeed.  It still has a long way to go to increase it's flight rate and have a regular flights of the F9 and Falcon Heavy, but wow, there is a lot of drama and excitement along the way.


My vote on "Number of Flights"
This time around I removed the 0 option.  It is highly unlikely that SpaceX will launch 0 flights in 2013.  CRS-2 is a given, but we are waiting on final results from the investigation of the engine failure on the CRS-1 mission.  So, CRS-2 could be pushed back some.  At parallel, we are waiting on the Cassiope flights, which will be the debut flight on the Falcon 9 v1.1.  This will depend on the current production of the v1.1, which is mostly unknown.  It will also depend on the status of the Vandenburg launch site construction, which is also somewhat of an unknown.  Since there are so many unknowns, I wanted to wait until December for this thread.  Back in September, we simply wouldn't have known about the CRS-1 engine failure and the impact of that. 

However, it doesn't seem that we have learned a lot about it since then.  But, I wanted to go ahead and make the thread anyway.  I think that CRS-2 will fly in March or shortly after.  I think that Cassiope will fly shortly after that.  SpaceX has said that there is a need to launch SES-8 this year.  I am almost certain they will.  Also, CRS-3 will probably fly.  I don't see a Falcon Heavy launch this year, sorry Heavy fans.   ;)  So, that is my bet.  4 flights of SpaceX this year.  I believe that Thaicom will be pushed into 2014.  But I have made an option for those that think Thaicom will fly this year.  Also, if you are especially bullish, you can say that SpaceX will accelerate the schedule and we'll see more than 5 flights.  I would be very surprised with that outcome.

Anyway, enjoy.  And take it away from here!

Also,
The poll expires in December 2013.  All members are allowed ONE vote and no one will be allowed to change their vote.  Sorry, but when your bet is on the table, it's on the table.   ;)
« Last Edit: 01/05/2013 03:59 AM by tigerade »

Online meekGee

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #1 on: 12/23/2012 06:09 AM »
What - you can vote anytime you want till December?

I propose once the horse is out of the gate (first launch!), voting closes.
(Which means all the way till T-0, exactly)

You can set up a second vote for people who want to vote in retrospect....
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #2 on: 12/23/2012 06:09 AM »
I'm going to wait until the very end of 2012 to make my prediction, but I kind of think 3 is the conservative bet. But I'm usually not overly conservative. We know very, VERY little of F9 v1.1, which is to make up the majority of 2013 launches. For that reason, just 2 again is still a significant possibility. I may go with four, though...
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Offline sdsds

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #3 on: 12/23/2012 06:18 AM »
Is the poll asking, "How many times will a SpaceX mission that's intended to reach orbit lift off in 2013?" Or is it asking, "How many times will a SpaceX mission reach orbit in 2013?" Or is it meant to include Grasshopper sub-orbital hops into space and back as well? What about missions that reach some orbit, just not their intended orbits?
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Offline tigerade

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #4 on: 12/23/2012 08:00 AM »
 "How many times will a SpaceX mission that's intended to reach orbit lift off in 2013?"


Grasshopper is excluded in this thread as it's not an orbital rocket.

To clarify this more, when I say "flight" I am referring to a launch of an orbital rocket:

-Needs to be Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy, with intention to reach orbit
-Grasshopper is not included in the scope of this thread.
-Pad abort tests, in flight abort tests, are not included in this thread.
-Mission failures still count.  If the rocket is launched and cannot be recovered and launched again, it is considered a single launch (Falcon 1 flights 1-3 for example).
« Last Edit: 12/23/2012 08:11 AM by tigerade »

Offline sdsds

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #5 on: 12/23/2012 08:45 AM »
"How many times will a SpaceX mission that's intended to reach orbit lift off in 2013?"

Thanks for the clarification. I'm going to vote now, even though that doesn't give the best chance of getting the "right" answer. (I support the proposal to close voting after the first launch.)

My prediction is three:
-two flights of F9 with Dragon
-one flight of F9 without Dragon
-no flights of FH, but it will be seen vertical on the pad and look great!
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Offline corrodedNut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #6 on: 12/23/2012 12:32 PM »
The way I interpret the SpaceX manifest, they are predicting 5 launches total: 4 from the Cape and 1 from Vandenberg. So I'm going with 4 total, due to the CRS-2 delay, but I consider 4 launches a best-case scenario.

Offline Tea Party Space Czar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #7 on: 12/23/2012 06:07 PM »
I voted four.  While I am comfortable with the engine investigation and 1.1, I still have concerns about the ability to "crank out the cores and engines". 

I hope there are five and I am wrong.

Respectfully,
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What we want and what we can afford are two very different things.

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Offline hrissan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #8 on: 12/23/2012 06:28 PM »
I voted 3, because I feel much better to be conservative in expectations and get a positive suprise later.

BTW: I believe the poll should close on 31 december 2012 because otherwise it would be unfair for those of us who voted early. What's the point in poll if some people will vote on it in November 2013?

Offline tigerade

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #9 on: 12/23/2012 06:39 PM »
BTW: I believe the poll should close on 31 december 2012 because otherwise it would be unfair for those of us who voted early. What's the point in poll if some people will vote on it in November 2013?

Reason being is that new members to the forum will certainly join within the coming year.  I want everyone who wants to vote to be able to vote.

Offline DanielW

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #10 on: 12/23/2012 06:42 PM »
I voted 3 even though I think they can produce hardware for more. I think integration, software tweaks, mission planning, and scheduling will remain issues where experience and confidence don't match aspirations.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #11 on: 12/23/2012 06:59 PM »
Went with 4, three CRS flights, 1 commercial.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, SpaceX SES-11.

Offline aero

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #12 on: 12/23/2012 07:07 PM »
BTW: I believe the poll should close on 31 december 2012 because otherwise it would be unfair for those of us who voted early. What's the point in poll if some people will vote on it in November 2013?

Reason being is that new members to the forum will certainly join within the coming year.  I want everyone who wants to vote to be able to vote.

I understand your rationale but I think a better rationale would be something that levels the field a little better. Something like a sequence of Polls that close at the end of the year, or at the next SpaceX launch which ever comes first. Of course the closing of a Poll causes a new Poll to open again with a nominal closing at the end of the year or at next launch. That way, the early voters could stick with their first guess or adjust it in the next Poll, while new members would enter the playing field equal to old members - as near as experience allows.

Such a scheme would encourage everyone to vote, improve the validity of the statistics as well as providing a larger statistical basis for evaluation of accuracy of forum projections.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #13 on: 12/23/2012 07:09 PM »
I'm feeling optimist today, so I'm going to say 4 launches.
CRS2 seems like a given. CASSIOPE seems the difficult one. But I'm wondering if CRS3 won't be the v1.1 debut. But in any case no other commercial will fly before MDA's. So either v1.1, fairing tests or Pad issues might push everything into 2014.
So CRS2 and 3 plus CASSIOPE seems like the "safe" bet. But they need at least on GTO launch this year.
But the truth is that save for the engine anomaly, the rockets didn't seemed like the long pole this year. Given current information, 4 launches seems like "doable". But also history tells us to take at least one launch less than programmed. I'm just making a "wishful vote". If there is such a thing.

Offline tigerade

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #14 on: 12/23/2012 07:16 PM »
BTW: I believe the poll should close on 31 december 2012 because otherwise it would be unfair for those of us who voted early. What's the point in poll if some people will vote on it in November 2013?

Reason being is that new members to the forum will certainly join within the coming year.  I want everyone who wants to vote to be able to vote.

I understand your rationale but I think a better rationale would be something that levels the field a little better. Something like a sequence of Polls that close at the end of the year, or at the next SpaceX launch which ever comes first. Of course the closing of a Poll causes a new Poll to open again with a nominal closing at the end of the year or at next launch. That way, the early voters could stick with their first guess or adjust it in the next Poll, while new members would enter the playing field equal to old members - as near as experience allows.

Such a scheme would encourage everyone to vote, improve the validity of the statistics as well as providing a larger statistical basis for evaluation of accuracy of forum projections.

Point taken.  I'll send you a PM.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #15 on: 12/23/2012 07:38 PM »
They're planning six.  I'm moving my estimate down a third because it wouldn't surprise me if F9 v.1.1 has some unexpected surprises that causes schedule slips.

That said, I'd prefer to be wrong and for them to get the full six.  Four from CCAFS and two from VAFB in one year isn't undoable but you do have to wonder sometimes.
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Offline Garrett

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #16 on: 12/23/2012 07:41 PM »
Voted 4. Two CRS (April and December) and two further F9 commercial launches. FH hardware may arrive at the launch site, but I doubt it'll launch before the 2nd quarter of 2014.

Last year I voted 3 and they launched 2, so I appear to be a slightly optimistic voter. Another reason I voted 4 is because I want them to launch 4: that would be a doubling of their flight rate, which I feel would be symbolic. They'd then need to launch 8 in 2014 to keep that pace up. And they sort of have to, as their online manifest lists at least 20 launch contracts for the 2013-2014 period.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #17 on: 12/23/2012 08:15 PM »
My prediction of flights:

1) CRS-2 – March (CCAFS)
2) MDA – April (VAFB)
3) SES – June (CCAFS)
4) Orbcomm - August (CCAFS)
5) CRS-3 - October (CCAFS)
6) Thaicom - December (CCAFS)


This is hopefull that everything launched has no problems.

As far as hardware production I do not see any choke points in the production of 5 F9 v1.1 flight units in a period of 1 year. The units are already in the pipeline and several are completed or are nearing completion just waiting for somewhere to send them. Engine production and testing is currently greater than what is needed to do 5 v1.1 launches in 2013. Doing 11 launches or more in 2014 is another story.

Online guckyfan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #18 on: 12/23/2012 08:54 PM »
My prediction of flights:

1) CRS-2 – March (CCAFS)
2) MDA – April (VAFB)
3) SES – June (CCAFS)
4) Orbcomm - August (CCAFS)
5) CRS-3 - October (CCAFS)
6) Thaicom - December (CCAFS)


This is hopefull that everything launched has no problems.

As far as hardware production I do not see any choke points in the production of 5 F9 v1.1 flight units in a period of 1 year. The units are already in the pipeline and several are completed or are nearing completion just waiting for somewhere to send them. Engine production and testing is currently greater than what is needed to do 5 v1.1 launches in 2013. Doing 11 launches or more in 2014 is another story.

Good to see a real optimist. :) I agree that production would not be the bottleneck. I also believe that the present schedule shift will not be a problem. However they need to do the shift to Falcon 9 1.1 flawlessly for that schedule.

I have no idea about next years schedule. The real test will be 2014. By then they need to perform a regular tight schedule.

Offline joek

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2013
« Reply #19 on: 12/23/2012 08:55 PM »
I'll go with four:  2x CRS + 2x other, 1x from Vandenberg and 3x on F9 v1.1.  However, I consider five a reasonable possibility as that's really what SpaceX needs in 2013; in particular, they need a F9v1.1 flight well before Nov-2013, (and preferrably a CRS flight) to meet their CCiCap timeline.

Such a scheme would encourage everyone to vote...

C'mon, rocket scientists...
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