Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS-2 SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION  (Read 373398 times)

Offline ugordan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #20 on: 10/29/2012 04:30 pm »
From a cost perspective changing flight hardware out for 1 flight makes no sense.

Doesn't make sense to me either, but that's irrelevant. It rests on the assumption v1.1 will have an easy, at least 3-flight streak. NASA got burned before and they're playing it safe, demonstrated performance trumps paper vehicles.

We will just have to wait this one out and see.

In the meantime we might refrain from making factually inaccurate statements. NASA bought an additional ride on a v1.0 and until that changes, SpX-2 is not the last v1.0 to fly.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #21 on: 10/29/2012 04:58 pm »
This will be the last Falcon 9 version 1 launch and the last using the Merlin1C exclusively.

Jason-3 launch for NASA.

I still don't think that will happen - on the 1.0, that is. SLC-40 is going to have a significant down-time to convert to a 1.1 pad after this flight, and they are not going to switch back and forth.

And the west coast pad is going to be 1.1 from the start.
Are you sure that the needed changes are, basically, a new strong back and bigger propellant tanks/pumps? I have the suspicion that they'll do a new strong back with all the necessary equipment and have the opportunity to switch back and forth, if needed.
SpaceX president said they had built six v1.0 cores. And this would allow them to have the parts to do a v1.0 if they can't certify the v1.1 on time.

Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #22 on: 10/29/2012 04:58 pm »
Failures with quickly known root causes shouldn't have launched in the first place.
Failures often bring to light issues that were very well hidden during testing and modelling. Sometimes your statement is true, especially in hindsight, but every failure has its own unique story.

How quickly a root cause is identified doesn't characterise the failure. For example, it might just be dumb luck that a thermocouple or camera was in the right place, or contra-wise. Maybe Antares could clarify what he was thinking.

At the risk of putting words into the mouth of Antares...one of the first things that's typically done in  a failure investigation is a review of the build paperwork and closeout photos. And if the review finds that, oops, Step 39 "Torque bolts to 40 ft-lbs" was mistakenly skipped, and the failure of that joint could have caused the observed anomaly, well, that's an obvious process failure that should have been caught in pre-flight reviews. Likewise, if someone sees something obviously wrong in the closeout photos, that's another thing that should have been caught in pre-launch reviews.

The design analyses, test results, build paperwork, etc, have already been reviewed so many times before launch that, if the root cause is immediately obvious to the PFIB, well, it should have been obvious before launch.

In the case of Pegasus XL, the first XL failed, and the cause was a mystery for some time. Everyone on the PFIB had a different pet theory. If my memory serves, Eventually the GNC guru figured out that stretching to the XL configuration had caused a sign change in one of the terms of the aerodynamic control equation, and therefore the autopilot software had an error in it. That was an extremely subtle root cause that took quite a while to nail down, because it wasn't a matter of looking at the build paperwork and finding an obvious omission, and the vehicle telemetry didn't suggest any component or system failures.
« Last Edit: 10/29/2012 05:04 pm by Kabloona »

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #23 on: 10/29/2012 05:21 pm »
From a cost perspective changing flight hardware out for 1 flight makes no sense.

Doesn't make sense to me either, but that's irrelevant. It rests on the assumption v1.1 will have an easy, at least 3-flight streak. NASA got burned before and they're playing it safe, demonstrated performance trumps paper vehicles.

We will just have to wait this one out and see.

In the meantime we might refrain from making factually inaccurate statements. NASA bought an additional ride on a v1.0 and until that changes, SpX-2 is not the last v1.0 to fly.

No thats just a random press release statement. Just because they stated it doesn't actually mean anything for what it will actually fly on. A press statement isn't a binding agreement of any kind so until things actually get manifested it doesn't really mean anything either way.
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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #24 on: 10/30/2012 02:23 am »
Kabloona pretty much captured my thinking. Before I posted I thought of every flight failure I could. As I said, when root cause was quickly known, it should have been caught preflight. There are definitely some with likely but not certain root causes where ascription was quick also but extremely not definitive.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline ugordan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #25 on: 10/30/2012 07:38 am »
No thats just a random press release statement. Just because they stated it doesn't actually mean anything for what it will actually fly on. A press statement isn't a binding agreement of any kind so until things actually get manifested it doesn't really mean anything either way.

You may think what you wish of it, but that statement is based on the actually procured launch service and it doesn't talk of F9 in generic terms but clearly spells out v1.0 twice. Until such a time when/if someone at NASA changes their mind, that random press release trumps the expertise of armchair experts, IMHO.

Offline woods170

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #26 on: 10/30/2012 10:18 am »
No thats just a random press release statement. Just because they stated it doesn't actually mean anything for what it will actually fly on. A press statement isn't a binding agreement of any kind so until things actually get manifested it doesn't really mean anything either way.

You may think what you wish of it, but that statement is based on the actually procured launch service and it doesn't talk of F9 in generic terms but clearly spells out v1.0 twice. Until such a time when/if someone at NASA changes their mind, that random press release trumps the expertise of armchair experts, IMHO.
Bingo!!

Oops... gotta go...

Offline IanO

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #27 on: 11/02/2012 03:54 pm »
anik just posted January 18 for the launch of SpaceX CRS-2, or SpX-2 for short.

2013
January 18 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
January 20 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

February 11 - Progress M-16M undocking (from Pirs)February 12 - Progress M-18M launch
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
February 19 - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

Changes on October 29th


What are his sources?  The NASA consolidated launch schedule still has December 15 as the scheduled launch date!
psas.pdx.edu

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #28 on: 11/02/2012 03:55 pm »
anik just posted January 18 for the launch of SpaceX CRS-2, or SpX-2 for short.

2013
January 18 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
January 20 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

February 11 - Progress M-16M undocking (from Pirs)February 12 - Progress M-18M launch
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
February 19 - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

Changes on October 29th


What are his sources?  The NASA consolidated launch schedule still has December 15 as the scheduled launch date!

That one is out of date. The SpX2 (CRS2) flight had been slipping to January even before the SpX1 flight launched. Trust Anik on this one.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2012 03:56 pm by Lars_J »

Offline IanO

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #29 on: 11/02/2012 04:13 pm »
anik just posted January 18 for the launch of SpaceX CRS-2, or SpX-2 for short.

2013
January 18 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
January 20 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

February 11 - Progress M-16M undocking (from Pirs)February 12 - Progress M-18M launch
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
February 19 - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

Changes on October 29th


What are his sources?  The NASA consolidated launch schedule still has December 15 as the scheduled launch date!

That one is out of date. The SpX2 (CRS2) flight had been slipping to January even before the SpX1 flight launched. Trust Anik on this one.

Sorry, can't.  Wikipedia requires a verifiable third-party source. Apparently the January 18 slip was first announced in September, but I'm having trouble finding the originating published source.  (For example, the ISS flight event schedule never even listed the CRS-1 launch date!)
psas.pdx.edu

Online Galactic Penguin SST

anik just posted January 18 for the launch of SpaceX CRS-2, or SpX-2 for short.

2013
January 18 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
January 20 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

February 11 - Progress M-16M undocking (from Pirs)February 12 - Progress M-18M launch
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
February 19 - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

Changes on October 29th


What are his sources?  The NASA consolidated launch schedule still has December 15 as the scheduled launch date!

That one is out of date. The SpX2 (CRS2) flight had been slipping to January even before the SpX1 flight launched. Trust Anik on this one.

Sorry, can't.  Wikipedia requires a verifiable third-party source. Apparently the January 18 slip was first announced in September, but I'm having trouble finding the originating published source.  (For example, the ISS flight event schedule never even listed the CRS-1 launch date!)

William Harwood's CBS News Space Place also lists January 18 for SpX CRS-2: http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/home/flightdata/calendar.html  :)
« Last Edit: 11/02/2012 04:17 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #31 on: 11/02/2012 04:23 pm »

Sorry, can't.

You should.  His sources are always correct.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2012 04:24 pm by Jim »

Online Galactic Penguin SST


Sorry, can't.

You should.  He knows.

I believe that too, but if you are a Wikipedia editor you would know why we can't quote him as a source.... anyway the link above DOES follow the Wiki rules, and so can be used.
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Offline AnalogMan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #33 on: 11/02/2012 04:30 pm »
[snip]
Sorry, can't.  Wikipedia requires a verifiable third-party source. Apparently the January 18 slip was first announced in September, but I'm having trouble finding the originating published source.  (For example, the ISS flight event schedule never even listed the CRS-1 launch date!)

How about NASA's GSFC public list (by no means definitive) which also gives Jan 18, 2013
http://msdb.gsfc.nasa.gov/launches.php

These are the details from the change log (http://msdb.gsfc.nasa.gov/change_log.php)

Date Posted:  2012-09-13
Mission :        CRS/SpaceX-02
Change:         Launch date slipped to 1/18/2013
Source :         ISS Flight Mechanics Teleconference: Look Ahead Schedule 9/10/2012.
« Last Edit: 11/02/2012 04:39 pm by AnalogMan »

Offline ugordan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #34 on: 11/02/2012 04:36 pm »
Isn't all this arguing about the *current* SpX-2 date moot in light of the onoing F9 anomaly investigation?

Offline anik

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #35 on: 11/02/2012 04:39 pm »
What are his sources?

Internal ISS flight schedule for 2013 signed by RSC Energia's president Vitaliy Lopota on October 24, 2012.

Offline IanO

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #36 on: 11/02/2012 05:24 pm »
Thanks all for the references! That change log is especially handy for tracking the amount of slip twixt cup and lift.
psas.pdx.edu

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #37 on: 11/09/2012 10:51 pm »
Kabloona pretty much captured my thinking. Before I posted I thought of every flight failure I could. As I said, when root cause was quickly known, it should have been caught preflight. There are definitely some with likely but not certain root causes where ascription was quick also but extremely not definitive.

"Should" is an important qualifier.

Falcon 1, Flight 3, for example, was the one where residual post-shutdown thrust pushed the first stage back into the second stage. The root cause was the change from ablative cooling to regen, and fuel evaporating out of the regen channels after shutdown.

The residual thrust was obvious in the video, and it didn't take them long to figure out why they hadn't seen it in atmospheric tests - because the pressure generated was less than atmospheric pressure. SpaceX, of course, knew about the shutdown transient and knew what their shutdown conditions were, but unfortunately did not connect the dots between their known shutdown transient, their known shutdown conditions, and their tested conditions.

That flight was August 3, 2008. They announced the cause Aug 6. Perhaps there were still some other troubleshooting avenues to trace through before it became official, but they had a high degree of confidence at that point.

As to the root question of how soon after finding the cause they can fly, that depends in part on how hard it is to fix (Falcon 1, Flight 4 launched less than 2 months later), and what proof the customer wants to see that the issue is fixed (F1F4 only had a mass simulator).

Offline manboy

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #38 on: 11/10/2012 03:50 am »
So will the March launch happen during the day or at night?
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9/Dragon CRS SpX-2 MISSION GENERAL DISCUSSION
« Reply #39 on: 11/14/2012 10:56 pm »
On Nov 9, anik posted the same delay to March 1.

 2013
.
February 12 - Progress M-18M docking (to Pirs)
March 1 - Dragon (SpX-2) launch
March 3 - Dragon (SpX-2) capture and berthing (to Harmony nadir) by SSRMS

March 15 - Soyuz TMA-06M undocking (from Poisk) and landing [Novitskiy, Tarelkin, Ford]
March - Dragon (SpX-2) unberthing (from Harmony nadir) and releasing by SSRMS

March 28 - Soyuz TMA-08M launch [Vinogradov, Misurkin, Cassidy]
.
.
Changes on November 9th

That's almost five months from CRS-1, similar to the interval after COTS-2+, and likely to be followed by another long interval for the modifications to launch F9 v1.1. 

The poll for number of SpaceX launches in 2013 may not look that different from the poll for 2012.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2012 11:02 pm by Carl G »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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