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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: Lar on 12/12/2016 06:16 PM

Title: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 12/12/2016 06:16 PM
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2017

News flash: There is a poll for 2018. YOU can't see it yet but here's the link anyway so **I** can find it again.
(this will get edited once it's live, in early December)
2018: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0

News flash: for those of you that can't get enough of polls, there are three new ones just for 2H 2017

Overall: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43271.0
Vandy:   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43274.0
Cape:    http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43275.0

Enjoy! (Lar, 2 July 2017)

Back by popular demand! (well, one guy asked me for it)... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 400 voters last year and there wasn't even a prize! Sadly, no prize this year either. But you want to vote anyway.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0)


Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
      2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
      6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
      1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0)

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0)


Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0)

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0)

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0)

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0)


References

Totals: F9  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest)
           Dragon from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions)
Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0)

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php (http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php)

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0)

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html (http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html)


Current 2017 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

(According to Salo's Thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know)

NET December 16, 2016 early January - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10), MicroSat-1a, MicroSat-1b - Falcon 9-030 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 20:36
NET January 8 - Echostar 23 - Falcon 9-031 -  Kennedy LC-39A
NET January 22 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS-10), SAGE-III, SAGE NVP, STP-H5/ISEM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or spring)
NET February - SES-10 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
March - NROL-76 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET March - Dragon SpX-11 (CRS-11), ROSA, MUSES, NICER - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st quarter - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10), MicroSat 1c, MicroSat 1d (or MicroSat 1a, MicroSat 1b) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 1st quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st half quarter- Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A/Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - SES-11 (EchoStar 105) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
1st half (TBD) - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Intelsat 35e - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June 1 - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS-12), CREAM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A 
midyear - Demo Flight (dummy payload, ballast) - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
August - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
September 13 - Dragon SpX-13 (CRS-13), ASIM, TSIS, MISSE-FF - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
3rd quarter - SES-16/GovSat-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - Esíhail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB 1, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, ARMADILLO, FalconSat 7, TBEx A, TBEx B, Prometheus 2-1, Prometheus 2-2, Prometheus 2-3, Prometheus 2-4, Prometheus 2-5, Prometheus 2-6, Prometheus 2-7, Prometheus 2-8, PSat 2, BRICSat 1, BRICSat 2, TEPCE 1, TEPCE 2, CP 9 (LEO), StangSat, DOTSI, CNGB, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 3rd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 4 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-14 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 4th quarter)
NET 2nd half - Europasat (HellasSat-3) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or Proton Ariane 5)
4th quarter -  ORS-6 (COWVR, WSGF), "2017 Sun Synch Express"/SHERPA: SpaceIL lunar lander, Eu:CROPIS, ICEYE-1 (TBC), BlackSky Global 1, BlackSky Global 2, BlackSky Global 3, BlackSky Global 4, STPSat-5,  SkySat (xTBD) + over 13 sats - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 4th quarter - Iridium Next Flight 5 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
October - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E 
late November - Early December - Hispasat 30W-6 (1F) Amazonas-5 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40  (or 2018)
November - Dragon v2 (manned test) (SpX-DM2) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
December 16 - Bangabandhu-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December 20 - TESS (Astro EX-1) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January 2018)
December - GRACE-FO 1, GRACE-FO 2, Iridium Next (x5) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or January NLT February 2018)
TBD - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: eXCITe (PTB 1), Blacksky Global Pathfinder 2, Flock-2c (x56), Lemur-2 (x8), Corvus-BC 3, ICE-Cap, PropCube 2, Arkyd-6A, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA (KHUSAT 3), CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, OCSD B, OCSD C, Fox 1C, Fox 1D, Nayif 1, skCUBE, ITASAT 1, Aalto 1, DIDO 1, 3Cat 1, LMPC (AeroCube 9), ROBUSTA 1B, SUCHAI - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
TBD - PSN-6, U.S. government satellite - Falcon 9 - TBD

piggybacked:
TBD - Kestrel Eye 1 - Falcon 9/SSPS - TBD


(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference)

NET January   4   17 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 18:42:18 (or 1st half of January (TBD))
mid-January (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or December 27, 2015)
NET January 3 8 February 7 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 - 21:01 ~08:30
March 21 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 ~04:00
NET 1st quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
spring - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, CubeSats - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
May - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
June 10 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August 15- Dragon SpX-11 (CRS11) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August - NEXT contract: 3U-CubeSat (x3) - GOLauncher-2 - TBD  ??? ? NOT a Falcon
NET August - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-10 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - SES-11 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
October - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
NET October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS12) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Esíhail 2 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - ViaSat-2 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or Ariane 5)
4th quarter - 30+ cubesats, tubesats - NEPTUNE N5 - Tonga NOT a Falcon
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 FT - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Europasat/HellasSat-3 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or NLT 1st quarter 2017)
late - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
late - STPSat-5 - TBD - TBD  ??? ?
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40


Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 19.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2015 or 2016). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count.
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magisty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test WILL NOT COUNT.
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)



Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX has aggressive plans for 2017 too.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Bubbinski on 12/16/2016 06:34 PM
I'm going conservative again this year. SpaceX has still not gotten to double digits in launches yet (in a year) but they've been getting closer. I say they finally, finally, barely make double digits this year with 10 orbital launches. By end of year they'll finally be positioned for a much higher launch cadence.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 12/16/2016 07:05 PM
My 21-25 vote is based on 3 launches from LC-39A every 2 months and 7/8 flights from VAFB. The real question is the launch rate on LC-39A not the 7 or 8 flights from VAFB. For those the payloads will be ready and the problem is LV availability. On tap for LC-39A is at least 1 FH, 4 CRS, at least 1 CC, and ~12 commercial (4 of which are from those delayed from 2016). At 7 VAFB 5 gov, 1 FH, and at least 5 commercial GTO's the number is 21.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Orbiter on 12/16/2016 07:11 PM
Going with 10.

6 from LC39A, 4 from VAFB. No Falcon Heavy, either.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: CraigLieb on 12/16/2016 07:25 PM
So I guessed 16 last year and they launched 8. Therefore, using the scientific method, I am hoping for 20 flights this year, so I picked 10 for the poll.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 12/16/2016 07:29 PM
I went 16 launches.

They demonstrated cadence at the Cape before the mishap, if they can quickly get back to that cadence, and propagate that to Vandy, 16 won't be hard at all... as long as there isn't another mishap.  Of that I think two will be FH.  So that's 14+6 first stages, and I think 80% recovery of those is not unreasonable, so I went 16 recovered stages too.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Barrie on 12/16/2016 07:34 PM
Yeah, my optimism and my pessimism duked it out for a while, then agreed on 15 - about half of Salo's schedule, but with a sympathy vote for an odd number, because I feel sorry for them.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 12/16/2016 07:38 PM
Bother, I forgot that I wanted to vote for an odd number...  :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/17/2016 04:58 AM
I went with 15 too. SpaceX we're doing one a month for 10 months up to September's failure so that's definitely a sustainable rate. At some point (mid?) next year they'll finally have 3 operational pads so a bit more than one per month over the course of the year seems reasonable.
I refuse to lower my guess by making any adjustment for further failures, I want to believe!  :D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: RotoSequence on 12/17/2016 05:41 AM
Going with twelve; I expect a few holdups and an abundance of caution will prevent them from sustaining the cadence of 2016 prior to the AMOS-6 explosion.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: ZachS09 on 12/17/2016 06:14 AM
Went with 10 missions because obviously, there will be delays that all of you will be unaware of at first until SpaceX announces them. I believe one of the 10 will include the demo flight of the Falcon Heavy.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Poole Amateur on 12/17/2016 06:23 AM
Gone for 16. They have a big backlog to work through and I like to think they can achieve that number without making any mistakes and blow more stuff up. If they can reuse some cores without having to rebuild them too much, then perhaps they can make 16.

Would be great if they do, really don't want another bang.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/17/2016 06:42 AM
going conservative  :o

6 from Pad 39a one will be FH late in the year, and another will be the Dragon 2 test, so only 4 satellite/CSR launches
2 from Pad 40 late in the year, satellite/CSR
4 from Vandenberg
and to make it ODD a Christmas Present from Brownsville 1 for Nomadd

so 13 total...
I think that's enough to keep things interesting, more and some people might get bored :D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Earendil on 12/17/2016 12:05 PM
Went with 15, as:

1. Fingers crossed, there will be no further major mishaps
2. I believe they should have worked most design-based issues by now.
2. They will do overall more than 1 per month, but not as far as 2 per month..


Overall 2016 was a bad year for me too, optimistic for 2017 though :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: nacnud on 12/17/2016 12:22 PM
Lucky 13, no rationale just lucky 13.

Can anyone decipher from the manifest, if everything goes perfectly, how many are actually planned. The list is too information dense for me to skim read ;)

Edit: I counted 33, but like the stones at Avebury, I get a different number every time.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: saliva_sweet on 12/17/2016 12:30 PM
My own wild guesses are that if they get five launches next year they won't go under. I expect them to get 8, same as this year, but my guesses have historically been low by 2 or 3. So I wouldn't be surprised if they get 10 or eleven. Anything more than that would be just fantastic.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: vapour_nudge on 12/17/2016 12:45 PM
14. I'm confident they'll find their feet this year
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: RonM on 12/17/2016 01:44 PM
I went with 12. Looks like SpaceX can average one launch per month per pad, but pad 40 is down, pad 39A hasn't had a launch yet, and we really don't know when RTF will start.

Once SpaceX gets all three pads going, we could be looking at over 30 flights per year. Then one of these years they add Brownsville for over 40 flights per year. However, if they don't stop blowing up stages, SpaceX can put itself out of business. They need to be more conservative with the F9 and FH.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: arachnitect on 12/17/2016 06:41 PM
I vote 7.

If this were a probability distribution thread, I'd start ramping up probabilities around 4 or 5, assigning highest probabilities to 7,8,9 and rapidly falling off from there.  I think the probability of exceeding 11 launches is less that 1 in 30. I think the probability of exceeding 15 launches is less than 1 in 200.

In addition to the unknowns of RTF, I think the manifest is filled with troublesome missions and is very vulnerable to problems on both spacex and customer sides.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Kaputnik on 12/17/2016 08:01 PM
I guessed correctly last year at eight, but obviously without AMOS I would likely have been very far wrong.

Going to be a bit more optimistic for 2017 and go with 11.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: hop on 12/17/2016 08:17 PM
Voted 12.

2016 showed they can do more than one launch per month when things go well, but from experience it's quite unlikely they will go a whole year without hitting some significant setbacks. Just how big the setbacks are is very uncertain, I wouldn't be surprised to see anything from 7 to 15.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: deadman719 on 12/17/2016 08:48 PM
I'm going with 12.

This a one up from what I thought last year. I'm hoping for more than 12 but feel it is a reasonable number that assumes delays. In my opinion, delays will result from getting 39A and 40 fully operational...call it teething pains. A very nice cadence should eventually be realized once the kinks are worked out.

At least one flight will be a FH mission.

Rob

 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: pippin on 12/17/2016 11:53 PM
Going with 13 like last year.
The latest flow rate they had before AMOS-6 was good for more but then that probably contributed to the accident and they can't really afford another one so I don't see them becoming too aggressive with it.

Other then this year I do expect to see FH flying in 2017 (hey, that was one prediction I had right last year...).
Only one, though...
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 12/18/2016 12:28 AM
Voted 15
There are 34 launches on starhawk92's manifest (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.msg1528569#msg1528569) with 2017 dates.
SpaceX doubled their record from 2013 in 2014.  My guess is that they will almost do it again.

Year          2012   2013  2014  2015   2016
Launches       2         3        6        7        8
Poll Mean    1.95   3.84   7.81   10.61  12.44
Failures         0         0        0        1        1

The group consensus has been pretty accurate when there were no launch failures.
(In 2013 a rocket was ready but launched just after the start of 2014.  The same thing happened the next year.  It should happen again this year.)

The past polls say that the mean of our guesses, fitted to a Gaussian distribution, will not change much after the first few dozen votes, and we have nearly a hundred already. 

The votes are hard to fit, being so spread out.  I still think the choices should be pairs (10-11, 12-13, 14-15 etc.) 

The preference for even numbers persists except those of us who maybe consciously chose and odd number after my comments. :P
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: MP99 on 12/18/2016 10:23 AM
I will be voting 15, including one FH.

I assume that LC-39A will be up and running very early in the year, and LC-40 in Q2.

Clearly, SpaceX need to demonstrate reliable operations - another failure so soon after the last one could be a real issue for them. So, I expect to see them concentrating on this, then a ramping up of flight rate through the year

They clearly need a major increase in launch rate (thus the vote for many more than last year), but I don't see them clearing their backlog. :-(

Cheers, Martin

Edit: now voted 15.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 12/18/2016 11:21 AM
I'm going with the optimistic 18 with 6 flights from Vandy and 1 a month from the Cape. The two pads in action is what gets them to their highest launch cadence yet.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 12/18/2016 12:40 PM
27

Assuming there is not another launch failure a cadence of 2 peer month should be pretty easy over the 2 launch pads, then towards the end of the year they can increase launch frequency with pad 40 back in service.

Even with a launch failure they should make over 12 launches, it seems to me that any vote less than 13 is basically saying that SpaceX will fail, and fail big.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: strangequark on 12/18/2016 01:17 PM
11 successful launches, based on demonstrated cadence. 1 failure, based on current rate of tribal knowledge loss. No Falcon Heavy, which will be OBE.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: john smith 19 on 12/18/2016 01:39 PM
I went with 18. With one pad coming into service from the start of the year and the other being rebuilt probably by the end of Q2 that seems reasonable, given their third pad at Vandenberg and their backlog.

However this all goes out the window if they have another launch failure.  :(

How likely that is will depend on how much more science SX plan to learn from their F9, F9SR and FH  launches. We know cross feed is now off the table for early FH flights, so that's deemed a case of too much pain for too little gain. 

At this stage a conventionally run company would seek to minimize launch risk by freezing it's LV design and operations procedures completely. I don't think SX will do this. I suspect SX will become more cautious about how it manages testing new procedures and hardware. The question is will any request be refused if the worst case result is the rocket blows up and takes the payload with it? 

Time will tell. I thought given all the Grasshopper testing they would nail the first stage landing on the first go. That turned out to be  optimistic.

[EDIT interesting what most people reckon the likely number is ]
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: meberbs on 12/18/2016 06:32 PM
21-25, because I'm an optimist, and because with the spotting of a core at McGregor, 1 at VAFB, 1 at the Cape, and the plan to reuse a stage for SES-10, that makes the next 4 cores backlogged. It is looking like they may be payload integration time and range availability limited this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: ElGuapoGuano1 on 12/18/2016 06:58 PM
I went with 8, i had been overly optimistic in the past. Hoping for more,  but trying to be realistic. Also don't see falcon heavy flying this year either. C'mon space x prove me wrong
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mheney on 12/18/2016 07:49 PM
I went optimistic - 2+/month once they get going put me at 21-25.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: deltaV on 12/18/2016 08:03 PM
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: shm6666 on 12/18/2016 08:11 PM
Im going for 10 this time around. I hope we will see a Falcon Heavy, I think no failure but turnaround times and schedule difficulties will keep SpaceX busy.

But lets face it, if they do 10 launches, that is a huge success!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 12/18/2016 10:15 PM
14, or once per month + a few extra. Including a failed FH launch. Because first times, you know how they are. And assuming they finally freeze the design of F9 until their backlog is reasonable.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Elvis in Space on 12/18/2016 10:26 PM
I'm going for 14 because that's what I predicted for 2016. If they don't hit at least that I shall predict it again next  year. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: pippin on 12/18/2016 11:58 PM
Only a broken clock is ever _really_ correct...
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Danderman on 12/19/2016 04:01 AM
8 launches, with 7 good and 1 not so good.

I should add that I have been very close to being on the mark for the last 2 years, and I always guess a lower number than most.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: jongoff on 12/19/2016 08:19 AM
On my 2017 predictions post, I said >10, though 12 is what I think is most likely. I wouldn't be horribly surprised if they got more than 15 flights in.

Things that could slow them down:
1- RTF after the Amos-6 pad failure
2- Aren't they transitioning to a new (and supposedly final) version of Falcon 9?
3- Getting Pad 39 up and running and pad 40 restored
4- Getting reused cores flying
5- Too many other major side projects on their plate (Falcon Heavy, Commercial Crew, Raptor/ITS, etc, etc)

I honestly hope that SpaceX can make it through 2017 without any failures.

~Jon
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: pikawaka on 12/19/2016 01:03 PM
I'm going with 17. 7 from Vandenberg and 10 from KSC seems doable if there are no failures. 3 of the KSC launches will be with "flight proven" rockets. Falcon Heavy will finally get off the ground this year. No failures this year, SpaceX will be on their toes with QA after 2 failures in 2 years.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: MrHollifield on 12/19/2016 04:38 PM
Being wildly optimistic, I voted 21-25. I based that on:
16 launches (4 per quarter) from 39A/40.
6 launches from Vandy (assuming no Iridium payload backlogs).
3 launches from 39A (FH, CRS, DM1) after LC40 is back in service.

They've hit the 4/quarter tempo each of the last 2 years. If the F9 Block 5 design freezes about the time LC40 comes back on line, I think they can sustain that tempo off their primary East Coast pad. The question will be if the factory can keep up with that rate plus 9 or 10 launches off the other pads.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mwfair on 12/19/2016 04:52 PM
I'm guessing the cadence will average 3 weeks.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Norm Hartnett on 12/19/2016 05:07 PM
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

They were on a pace to make 18 last year and I think I'll stick with that since they still have to prove FH and 39A and get LC40 back on line. Which was about where they were last year come to think about it.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Remes on 12/19/2016 05:52 PM
9

50% up compared to this year is an ambitous and excellent growth rate. (If they push harder I would be afraid of a lom, which would halt the launch counter for the remaining year).

Still the same. The only thing that differs is, that I'm sure they are going to try to raise the launch rate dramatically, and they will again encounter a loss of mission. I think chances are good, that the FH will be not within the 9 for this year (more urgent work on crewed flight).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: whitelancer64 on 12/19/2016 06:00 PM
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 12/19/2016 06:08 PM
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: savuporo on 12/19/2016 07:18 PM
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

One a week has been done before (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_in_spaceflight#Launches)

I voted two - I think they have some problems to work through
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: whitelancer64 on 12/19/2016 07:30 PM
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Norm Hartnett on 12/20/2016 05:32 PM

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.

I have a degree in Mathematics and I couldn't do simple math in my head until I took up league darts. Now I can do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division in my head even when dead drunk!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Billium on 12/20/2016 06:06 PM
After being disappointed with mishaps in 2015 & 2016 I voted 2017 once again on the presumption of no mishap, I hope that isn't bad luck. They have no shortage of payloads, and I think they can build at least 2 cores/month, plus they might reuse some, so I don't think those are constraints. I believe they will have 2 pads to start 2017 and the 3rd will come back online mid 2017. I think the difficulty will be to process missions, I don't know if they have the people to process 2 missions at once at different pads. In theory they should be able to do 1/month/pad (the have shown that before) which would bring it to 24 (not enough missions at Vandy for 12 months worth, but I added some to Florida for 2nd pad). I scaled it back and voted 18 for scheduling conflicts, short term payload issues, weather, space is hard ect. They really need to come through this year, or they will loose a lot of business. I don't think we will see the Heavy this year, disappointed about that because I think that means mars slips to 2020 instead of 2018. If they get through this year without a mishap, and 12+ launches I will be happy.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Darkseraph on 12/20/2016 06:29 PM
I'm guessing 11, higher than I have guessed in previous years.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: AndrewM on 12/20/2016 06:32 PM
I went with 15 as I voted 12 last year and feel they could have gotten it had the Amos-6 incident not occurred. They also should have 3 pads operational in 2017 unless something significant delays Pad 40.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: John Alan on 12/20/2016 08:03 PM
I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: bolun on 12/20/2016 08:21 PM
I'm going with 13 (1FH included).  ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: PahTo on 12/20/2016 08:25 PM

Going with 12 (includes one FH attempt).  Hope it is more, but spaceflight is difficult.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: M.E.T. on 12/21/2016 05:01 AM
First time poll participant, so forgive me if that makes me overly optimistic.

Their launch cadence was already hitting around 1.5 launches a month before Amos happened.

Currently it seems they might hit the ground running with 2 launches in January. Even if they only average 1.5 launches a month for the first 6 months and gradually ramp the cadence up to 2/month in the second half of the year, that will already take them to 9+12=21 launches in 2017.

Once they have 3 pads in operation, we might even see the odd month with 3 launches, late in the year.

So I'm going with 24 launches for the year. All assuming no failures that halt operations of course.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Dalhousie on 12/21/2016 09:47 AM
Nine, one more than last year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Bynaus on 12/21/2016 11:01 AM
I am going with 13. One per month and a bit more. I think it's doable, but still challenging. If that works out without larger hickups, I am confident to go for >20 in 2018.

But why does reading the original post of this thread remind me of this xkcd comic (https://xkcd.com/915/)? ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Mark S on 12/21/2016 02:33 PM
I was going to vote for 10, but then I figured what the heck. Let's turn it all the way to 11. (Yay for odd numbers!)

I voted 12 last year, which I thought was conservative, but turned out to be too high. So I will continue to lower my expectations until SpX proves otherwise.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Mike Jones on 12/22/2016 12:32 PM
7 launches until mid 2017 including  another  failure grounding Falcon 9 for the rest of the year and delaying FHeavy and crew Dragon by almost 2 years.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Endeavour_01 on 12/23/2016 12:51 AM
I voted 12, which is a tiny bit down from my prediction last year (13). I think SpaceX will manage a launch every month (with one of the launches being the first Falcon Heavy). 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Owlon on 12/23/2016 08:22 PM
Expecting a perhaps-optimistic 15-20, voted 18. I figure if they can get 7 and 8 rockets off the pad in the last two years while spending half of each year investigating failures, they should be able to get close to 20 this year with no failures.*

Should be able to do 6ish out of Vandenberg, 12ish out of 39A and a few from 40, minus a few overall due to inevitable pad teething issues.

*Please, please, please no more failures
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: watermod on 12/24/2016 02:07 AM
I suspect they will find the need to to move the HE tanks  out of the Oxygen with a pause for that.   This causes me to be a pessimist and say 9.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Mader Levap on 12/24/2016 01:15 PM
14.

Justification and assumptions:

- No launch failure. Sadly, it is incerasingly risky assumption, considering they had already two years with one failure each (no, I don't care about "but it was static fire" nitpickery). Hopefully, they will fare way, way better than Proton reliability-wise in future.

- They already proven they can sustain 1/month launch cadence. So, 12. I wanted slightly more than that allowing for possibility they will launch twice in one month from time to time (probably closer to end of year).

- No FH. It will be, as always, six months in future for entire 2017. (that implies either Red Dragon will be on maiden FH flight or more likely it will slip to 2020)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: eriblo on 12/27/2016 04:49 PM
End of Year prediction:  19.
I do not expect it to change but I will vote closer to the deadline as I think there might be more information regarding the plans for SLC-40 before then, especially if they have a successful RTF. (Hedging for further investigation delays or an early failure is an added bonus  ;) ).

Long motivation, included mostly for my own sake as I regret not writing one for all previous years:

Poll2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prediction   249914
Launches 23678
Failures00011

The obvious extrapolation is 9 launches and 1 (or possibly 2) failures - however extrapolation is just a guess that they will have 1 failure and roughly the same launch rate...

Assumption 1): I expect no failures that severely impact the schedule. I didn't previous years, which might or might not have been optimistic, but the probability should be even lower now and I'm an optimist :).

The last three years I looked at the manifest and took all in H1, none in Q4 with individual guesses for Q3 and special missions (CRS, FH). This was optimistic in 2014 while the rate in 2015 was well above my guess until CRS-7. This year it would likely have been a little optimistic again if not for Amos-6. So manifest is not a good predictor (duh ::) - and now it's getting very crowded).
However, they were launching consistently at about 12/year (when launching) in the last two years.

Assumption 2): Pads can support at least 12 launches/year and pad, constrained by payloads and production.

Assumption 3): Pads 39A and SLC-4E will be ready for launches at year start, while SLC-40 will be back around midyear.

Assumption 4): I'm an optimist and have to try and compensate as much as possible.

Assumptions 1-3) would give 26, but heavy application of 4) brings it down to 19 (somewhat arbitrary, but it's odd and 21 seemed to good to be true :P). This includes some combination of re-teething problems with SLC-40, FH/crew related activities hogging 39A and lack of stages making the east coast perform like one pad with a few extra. The break down is as follows:

4xDragons  (Hoping for DM-1 is obviously against 4)).
5xIridium from Vandenberg  (all on schedule is incompatible with 4), as is a general Q4 and a TBD. CONAE might surprise with SAOCOM-1A).
9 - Echostar 23 to SES-16 from the manifest.  (This is pad constrained, but corresponds more or less to H1. So much for changing approach...)
1 FH (violently disregarding 4), but I just can't help myself :) ).

This was fun! I expect to be about as accurate as if I had used the slightly quicker dart-over-shoulder method :).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Tass on 12/27/2016 08:42 PM
I have successively tried to calibrate to a bit more pessimism yet kept guessing one too high. I really hope this is the year I finally guessed way too low.

I went with nine again.

   
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oiorionsbelt on 12/29/2016 04:53 AM
Went with 12 for the last three years.
 14 this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 12/30/2016 04:46 AM
I voted 11, same as last year. They are back in the same position; only 2 pads, have to squeeze in FH and work around CRS launches and an abort test. They have a big back log, but they did last year too and were on course for 11-12 launches.

I feel that this is pessimistic, but SpaceX has not demonstrated any ramp up in launch schedule outside of the 20-30 days they proved over a year ago. That together with unavoidable delays and limited pads equals less than a launch a month on average.

If they get LC-40 up and running again quickly and make use of both pads then maybe the'll hit 13-15.

And I'm using all odd numbers because equality.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Proponent on 01/03/2017 02:59 PM
Was on the verge of going for 11 but was then overcome by a wave of pessimism and have settled on 9.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Tuts36 on 01/03/2017 03:07 PM
My purely intuitive pick is 17. 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rsdavis9 on 01/03/2017 03:15 PM
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Hauerg on 01/03/2017 03:22 PM
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rsdavis9 on 01/03/2017 03:43 PM
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.

Thanks. Mine is 18! I think 12 is once per month and 24 is 2 so halfway between. Thats as detailed as my logic goes.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 01/03/2017 03:48 PM
I went with 18 - I feel that's a high, but comfortable, cadence that won't over stress two launch sites and gives wiggle room for some slippages as well as some high profile activities such as FH. After all, if you look at the overall picture, the parts are all there and ready for this (or even higher) number of launches. And of course the manifest is there. So the only thing that would stop this high number would be another failure - and if that happens then SpaceX will be dealing with a much bigger issue...
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: PerW on 01/04/2017 01:50 PM
2015: 6, My guess was 8
2016: 7, My guess was 11
Today I guess 13 orbital flights for 2017, and I really hope that FH will be one of them.

But I would love if the below 2017 result would be true!

Also I did a long time prediction in mars 2016, a bit more optimistic then  ;):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39777.msg1502642#msg1502642 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39777.msg1502642#msg1502642)
2016: 15
2017: 20
2018: 35
2019: 33
2020: 40

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Doesitfloat on 01/05/2017 08:16 PM
Well the old method of Spacex only launching prime numbers is not paying off anymore, time for a new equally insightful method.


The digit sum of 2017 and Falcon 9  => 2+0+1+7+9= 19
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: jacqmans on 01/07/2017 08:45 AM
6. They will have problems again....
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: smoliarm on 01/07/2017 10:51 AM
13
hope it's a lucky 13 ;)

BTW, something odd is going on in this poll: even numbers are not that dominant anymore :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: zappatosin on 01/11/2017 01:22 AM
11 because SpaceX isn't the only company in line for the Eastern and West ranges.  :D

I optimistically expect 0 ruds.

Hopefully SpaceX will static fire the heavy, but there will almost certainly be too many adjustments for the Heavy to launch in 2017.

As a SpaceX fan, I'm just now beginning to appreciate Blue Origin's motto.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lee Jay on 01/13/2017 02:44 PM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455

"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: llanitedave on 01/14/2017 05:06 AM
Guessed 17, and I think that may be as many as they can handle.  Weather alone can slow them down.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: craigcocca on 01/14/2017 05:26 AM
Given that they have the Iridium NEXT constellation to keep VAFB busy this year, I'll go with 15.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/14/2017 05:35 AM
Love the fact that this year's poll has such a wide and more even spread than normal  :)
Of course hate the reason why (two failures)  :(

I think this year is going to be quite a ride!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/14/2017 05:52 AM
Cross-posting for info:

In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast (https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/cbs-this-morning/id1157631148?mt=2&i=1000379922655), she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.

Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/14/2017 06:33 PM
The count is now 1 with a successful launch of the first Iridium sat set. A not is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Net up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My prediction was 21-25 launches this year with an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/15/2017 12:07 AM
"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."
I wonder for how many years they had this kind of projection?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: enzo on 01/15/2017 01:46 AM
With the current glut of cores undergoing prep, I expect a strong start through March, followed by a slowdown as production catches up, followed by a ramp in late summer/fall as reuse comes into vogue. 10 before 8/1 and 10 after 8/1.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: deltaV on 01/15/2017 05:43 AM
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.

The fact that the RTF flight was successful with zero scrubs raises my estimate of their launch rate slightly. I'll vote 17.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Patchouli on 01/15/2017 05:04 PM
I  went with 15 as an optimistic number.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: hop on 01/15/2017 08:37 PM
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast (https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/cbs-this-morning/id1157631148?mt=2&i=1000379922655), she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.
"Half SpaceX official manifest" has pretty good track record so far, so I'm feeling pretty good with 12 ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 01/16/2017 09:53 PM
The poll is still open a few more days, but I figure most folks have voted. So, here are some summary statistics:

Mode: 12
Median: 14
Mean: 14.3
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rickl on 01/16/2017 11:41 PM
I forgot about this poll until now.  I picked 12, which I think is the same number I picked last year.  It's kind of a pessimistic number, because they should be able to do better than that.  I hope they don't have any more failures, or the company could be in trouble.


Amusingly, each time I've taken this poll, I just picked a number out of the air, without trying to explain or justify it, and before reading the other comments.  Each time the number I picked has turned out to be the most popular number.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/17/2017 07:27 PM
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: jongoff on 01/17/2017 08:54 PM
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.

It's interesting that the two of us are so close to each other's guesses this time around. I guessed 12 back on the day they opened this poll--but I'm hoping to finally come in below what SpaceX actually achieves. Last year I think I guessed 10. So far I've always been overoptimistic in spite of thinking I was being pessimistic. Hopefully this year is my first year that changes, and I end up looking like a wet blanket.

~Jon
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 01/19/2017 03:30 AM
I have to call this one a bit early.
Similar evolution to last year. 
Within a few days the best fit to a Gaussian distribution centered on ~13.5 and never moved. 
That's just over one per month.
Variance rose to 5 and barely crept up afterwards despite steady voting.
We need to keep separate votes for higher numbers.  21-25 was just too popular and hard to fit.  I counted that as averaged over each of the five bins.
On the other hand, only two people voted <6.
Now, with one success already, let's keep our fingers crossed for SpaceX to exceed our expectations.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 01/19/2017 03:50 AM
Those are very pretty pictures, but let's see last year's, how did we do against reality? :)

Also, some of you cowboys like to wait till the last minute, dontcha?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Robotbeat on 01/19/2017 09:15 PM
I voted 13, but I think their odds of getting less than 6 are greater than them getting more than 30.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 01/19/2017 09:24 PM
Interesting that 3,4,5 got no votes AT ALL...

I may extend the single numbers out farther next year before switching to 5s....
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: subzero788 on 01/19/2017 10:15 PM
Voted 9. Being conservative always seems to pay off in these polls
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Mader Levap on 01/20/2017 01:13 PM
Hmm, two guys voted one or two launches. They probaby assumed another failure.

First guy already lost (apparently he counted on two failures in row). There WILL be at least one launch attempt.
Second guy will win only if this (EchoStar) launch attempt ends in failure AND RTF wil be longer than 11 months. Second assumption would be pretty probable under these circumstances, actually.

On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 01/20/2017 05:50 PM
On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!

Well SpaceX seem to be aiming for one launch every 2 weeks from 39A (that is 24) + 8 from Vandy + 4 months of a launch every 2 weeks from SLC-40 (9 more). So an optimist would say 41!

Add in a break in rhythm for FH and the inevitable weather and range delays (those pesky boats and planes) and 35 seems possible.

I voted 27 (which is possibly the 2nd most optimistic) and that would only launch 87% of the manifest.

As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure. My conclusion is that most of the votes were from pessimists, despite the reputation for having lots of SpaceX fanboi around, it seems that only one voted :o
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 01/20/2017 06:49 PM
On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure.
... or something else external that prevents things... payload shortage (probably not this year but within a year or two if they chew the manifest???) ban on launches by the government, UFO invasion, etc.

None of those seem very likely. So ya maybe we are all pessimists.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 01/20/2017 07:15 PM
As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure. My conclusion is that most of the votes were from pessimists, despite the reputation for having lots of SpaceX fanboi around, it seems that only one voted :o

They have not yet demonstrated a sustained cadence at that rate over many months. Nor have they shown they have enough experienced personnel to support concurrent mission planning, integration etc on multiple pads over many months.

The whole history of SpaceX is that things turn out harder than they expected, although they get there in the end. I have no trouble believing that they'll achieve it next year, but for this year my guess is that the ramp up won't be as fast as they think (hence I plumped for 15.)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: philw1776 on 01/21/2017 03:13 PM
13 last year and 13 again this year.  Hope to underachieve.
Risk of failure causing a launch hiatus at even above 90% reliability makes high teens to 20s less probable.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/01/2017 05:14 PM
An item missed even by me, is the capability of the HIF at 39A to process and handle multiple payloads and cores in parallel.

The core for Echostar 23 is in its last week of processing.

Another core is being processed for the CRS-10 flight. In fact it had been in the HIF for a while anticipating a short duration between launches. Now the order is reversed but the shortened duration capability is now evident.

The key here is that SpaceX could literally maintain a less than 2 week duration between launches with this very large HIF. So the minimum time between launches of ~14 days set by the practical limit of duration at SLC-40 does not apply at LC-39A.

The ability of processing not only 2 cores but 2 payloads in parallel would allow a 30 day easy processing schedule for payloads and cores but launch at 15 days or even a possible every 10 days since the HIF is large enough to easily process up to 5 cores and larger and more payloads than the SLC-40 HIF could ever process.

So my earlier 21+ pick stands even with the delays because the launch schedule out of LC-39A could be rather brisk of 2+ per month. Add to that the every other month launch from SLC-4 and the limiting factor for number of launches is the manufacture rate of Upper Stages.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/19/2017 07:32 PM
2 launches. The first person who chose 1 launch has officially lost.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 02/19/2017 07:45 PM
As of February 19

Number of people who were wrong: 1 (0,3%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 1 (0,3%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 319 (99,7%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

Probability of enjoying launch statistics after a succesfull launch: 100%
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: HIP2BSQRE on 02/19/2017 08:51 PM
Well --SpaceX has done 2 launches in 6 week.  We expect at least another 2 before the end of March.  That will be 4 per quarter.  I think that I voted for 13.  But if SpaceX can keep the rate up the min should be around 16+ for 2017.  Now with three pads open starting in the fall - it seems very doable.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: meberbs on 02/19/2017 09:52 PM
Well --SpaceX has done 2 launches in 6 week.  We expect at least another 2 before the end of March.  That will be 4 per quarter.  I think that I voted for 13.  But if SpaceX can keep the rate up the min should be around 16+ for 2017.  Now with three pads open starting in the fall - it seems very doable.  Time will tell.
Just for some more math: They could be at 3 by the end of Feb. At 3 launches in 2 months gives 18 launches in a year, if 2 then launched in March, that would be 5 in 3 months, or 20/year. Obviously they might not keep up at that rate, or these launches could be delayed for all sorts of reasons, but the high end votes aren't out of the running. (Except for the one that was for more launches than the expected available number of payloads.)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/24/2017 09:13 AM
So looks like SpaceX are aiming for another 7 (conceivably 8) launches by end of June (or two a month from March onwards):

Quote
Industry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108 (https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108)

Obviously remains to be seen if they can achieve it, but we know Iridium have been told June for their next launch so SpaceX seem confident enough for the next few months to be telling customers.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 02/25/2017 10:14 AM
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: vapour_nudge on 02/25/2017 11:34 AM
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

But, but, this just can't be right. That would mean my prediction was wrong
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: meberbs on 02/25/2017 03:34 PM
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

But, but, this just can't be right. That would mean my prediction was wrong
Exactly, and it would mean my admittedly optimistic prediction might be right, that's just inconceivable :P
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 02/26/2017 01:08 PM
There aren't any ULA launches from the Cape from late March until late June. So, that is a 3 month period where SpaceX won't have range conflicts. If they are going to achieve a high launch rate from the Cape this year, I think we'll start to see it in this 3 month period.

This may also explain why Iridium 2 was pushed to mid-June. SpaceX wants to take advantage of having the range all to themselves at the Cape to lower the backlog.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: skybum on 02/27/2017 09:31 AM
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

I'm a huge SpaceX fan, but feel like others are being too optimistic here. I really do think that SpaceX is very much on the right track, however booster availability isn't the only bottleneck here. We've also seen launches slip due to:

- Pad availability
- Range availability
- ISS visiting vehicle scheduling conflicts
- Payload availability

Note that none of those things are particularly within SpaceX's zone of control. So even if they do everything 100% right, there will still be a meaningful lag time while the rest of the world figures out how to deal with the advent of cheap and frequent space launches.

For this reason, I voted for 12 launches this year -- a 50% increase year-on-year. That would be solid, satisfactory progress. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty. Fewer than 8 launches would be sorely disappointing, and more than 18 would be utterly gobsmacking.

Just suggesting that it might be good to temper expectations a bit, so that you can appreciate that SpaceX is making good progress even if they don't do dozens of launches this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: envy887 on 02/27/2017 01:49 PM
12 is only an increase if they have another failure, since they were on pace for 12+ in both 2015 and 2016.

A year without failures would be great. A 50% increase in rate would be great. Both of those together would get them to 18+.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/13/2017 09:25 PM
My estimate still stands at 23.

6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)
8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)
9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/17/2017 02:14 PM
Now at count of 3 at 2.5 months into 2017.
At that rate that is 14 for the year. But SpaceX is aiming for 6 by 1 June.

Until reach 6 the poll is in a no-man's land since no one voted for 3 4 or 5.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/19/2017 01:08 PM
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 03/19/2017 03:37 PM
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds) to see what the consensus (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1632229#msg1632229) is.
Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. 

It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year.  It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.
You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion.    Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.

(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic".  Get in the ring next time. (http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trsorbonnespeech.html))
YMMV, as may your opinion
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/19/2017 04:33 PM
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds) to see what the consensus (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1632229#msg1632229) is.
Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. 

It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year.  It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.
You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion.    Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.

(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic".  Get in the ring next time. (http://www.theodore-roosevelt.com/trsorbonnespeech.html))
YMMV, as may your opinion

Well, for what it's worth, I think it can be both :)
A way to find out what the consensus about SpaceX flights will be during the year, with enlighted opinions of this community AND somehow a funny game about who's prediction would be right or wrong.

I somehow agree with the fact that non-voters should not complain nor critic the choices. I personnaly chose 15 which I find still realistic at this point.

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(
 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: skybum on 03/22/2017 09:44 AM
My estimate still stands at 23.

6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)
8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)
9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)

From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.

Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not. 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 03/22/2017 11:40 AM
From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.
Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not.

Given SpaceX's current backlog, is payload availability really an issue for the next 12-24 months?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: spacenut on 03/22/2017 12:31 PM
They still have to have a FH demo flight (3 cores).  They have to get in Dragon 2 flight.   That is their own, not payloads that are available.  I voted 12 to be realistic, but I hope they can do over 20. 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/22/2017 01:52 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mme on 03/22/2017 03:13 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rpapo on 03/22/2017 03:16 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
It may also be slightly limited by the fact that the LC40 HIF can only hold one rocket at a time, compared to the HIF at LC39A, which can hold five cores at once, and can therefore be prepping the next mission before the current mission gets off the ground.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/22/2017 03:49 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mme on 03/22/2017 04:21 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/22/2017 04:50 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)

Well, to me, predictions should not come with "new info..." and past tense in it :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/22/2017 05:01 PM
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Current Launch date for SES-10 is March 29 (13 day turnaround for LC39A). Except for Atlas V slip it would have been March 27 (11 day turn around for LC39A). So a 15 day turn around average over the next 2 months (April and May) are not out of the question. But rightly things never go perfectly and there may be a few day slip of several of the 4 next launches after SES-10. So At least 2 more if not 3 by 1 June with the next one early June 3rd/4th (For 2017 by 1 June 6th/7th/8th more likely 6 than 8 but 8 is still possible). For April and May there are actual launch dates posted for the next 3 missions past SES-10. http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0)

When has SpaceX posted launch dates for more than the next mission if even that?
The existence of these launch dates in the range schedule mean that SpaceX is serious about the launch dates.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: AncientU on 03/30/2017 07:45 PM
...

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(

Nobody being right on this poll, or the end of the world?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 AM
2 flights in March!

There looks to be 2 flights planned in April, May, and June with recent confirmation of the dates.

If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year month for rest of the year that will be 22 flights. Seems possible.

Edit: I see! Hope you all had fun with that word mix-up. :-)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 01:58 AM
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year

Well at least we now know who voted for that.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: EgorBotts on 03/31/2017 07:25 AM
...

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(

Nobody being right on this poll, or the end of the world?

Well, if tomorrow is the end of the world, there's nothing to be done at our level. But if we end up all losing this stat game, that would be a shame.

Back to statistics anyway, still no winner as of today (4 flights), but then it's not even april, so there is some margin.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 11:07 AM
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year

Well at least we now know who voted for that.

I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year. I think that is more realistic with normal constraints.

I've been impressed so far and could imagine us all sitting here in 3 months looking at 10 launches in the first half the year from SpaceX.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 12:47 PM
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mikelepage on 04/10/2017 09:52 AM
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

I find time flies by at a year per year.  I voted for 15, which is less than 18, but still more than once per typo.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/02/2017 02:26 PM
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Jarnis on 05/05/2017 06:22 PM
I voted 16. Looks like I'm going to regret guessing low :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: kch on 05/05/2017 06:40 PM
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Well at least we now know who voted for that.
I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.

Think about it.

"... goes ding when there's stuff"?  ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: acsawdey on 05/05/2017 06:44 PM
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mikelepage on 05/07/2017 07:35 AM
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement.

I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the fanboy in me.

Lots of people are watching, to be sure:

https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived (https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived)

I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 05/07/2017 08:43 AM
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

1. 39A looks to be holding up well. This is probably #1.
2. ULA isn't launching again until August, so probably not much competition for the range.
3. 3 stages are at the Cape, 1 is at McGregor, and 1 was seen on the production floor more than a week ago. Looks to be fine.
4. Nothing to add
5. No info as far as I know
6. See 3.
7/8. The unknown.

Guess, we'll see. I'd still count it as a remarkable success if one of the launches is pushed to July 1/2/3.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Barrie on 05/07/2017 09:25 AM
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty :) because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...

1. Launchpad turnaround?
2. Range availability?
3. New first stage production rate?
4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)
5. New second stage production rate?
6. Stage testing/transport rate?
7. Mission-ending failure rate?
8. Other?

fairing production rate?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 05/07/2017 11:51 AM
fairing production rate?

Good thought. But as this has been a known potential issue for some time (hence part of the reason to look at fairing recovery) I'd hope SpaceX used the downtime following September's failure to get ahead on fairing production.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 05/12/2017 06:30 PM
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely  possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely.

But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A
CRS: 1 June
Bulgarisat: 15 June
Intelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)

SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 June

So the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.

This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation.

June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9
July 3 more TtD: 12
Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])
Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing
           down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])
Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 +  1 on SLC-4E)
Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)
Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)

My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.

If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.


Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Owlon on 06/04/2017 04:23 PM
We're now at 7 launches after CRS-11. SpaceX should surpass their previous annual record this month, yet we've barely dipped into the low tail end of predictions.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: M.E.T. on 06/04/2017 06:36 PM
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely  possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely.

But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A
CRS: 1 June
Bulgarisat: 15 June
Intelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)

SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 June

So the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.

This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation.

June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9
July 3 more TtD: 12
Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])
Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing
           down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])
Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 +  1 on SLC-4E)
Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)
Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)

My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.

If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.

What would be the pros and cons of putting both LC39A and LC40 into full operation as soon as LC40 is done, and pushing out the FH refurbishments to LC39A to next year? How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

Would the dent this would make in their backlog be more valuable to them than meeting their self imposed, largely symbolic deadline of flying FH this year?

Could they for example hit between 25-30 launches in 2017 if they had both 39A and 40 operating in tandem for the last 4 months of the year?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/04/2017 07:25 PM
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Recent updates have shown DM-1 moving to 2018. It looks like CRS-13 (was Nov 1) may be moving to 2018 as well. It isn't clear how many payloads we think are flying in 2018 would be ready to fly in the 4th quarter of 2017.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 06/04/2017 08:20 PM
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Recent updates have shown DM-1 moving to 2018. It looks like CRS-13 (was Nov 1) may be moving to 2018 as well. It isn't clear how many payloads we think are flying in 2018 would be ready to fly in the 4th quarter of 2017.

If payload readiness is the limiting factor, doesn't that mean they're up to speed with their backlog? So they can spend more of their resources on finishing development on Dragon 2, FH, Red Dragon, and eventually ITS, taking new orders as they need money coming in to pay for their efforts towards Mars.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: QuantumG on 06/04/2017 11:35 PM
We're now at 7 launches after CRS-11. SpaceX should surpass their previous annual record this month, yet we've barely dipped into the low tail end of predictions.

I predicted 8, I hope I'm wrong :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: SweetWater on 06/05/2017 12:03 AM
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

Let's say SLC-40 is back up at the beginning of September, and let's be optimistic and say that mods and testing for Falcon Heavy take 2 months, with a late November/early December launch. That opens up LC-39A for other launches for the month of December. And even that seems very optimistic.

So far this year, SpaceX is doing what they need to do. They're launching payloads, cutting down on scrubs and schedule slips, developing a steady cadence, and introducing operational reuse of first stages and Dragon capsules. One launch every 2 or 3 weeks without any unforced errors will make for a fantastic year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: M.E.T. on 06/05/2017 05:05 AM
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?

The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).

Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

Let's say SLC-40 is back up at the beginning of September, and let's be optimistic and say that mods and testing for Falcon Heavy take 2 months, with a late November/early December launch. That opens up LC-39A for other launches for the month of December. And even that seems very optimistic.

So far this year, SpaceX is doing what they need to do. They're launching payloads, cutting down on scrubs and schedule slips, developing a steady cadence, and introducing operational reuse of first stages and Dragon capsules. One launch every 2 or 3 weeks without any unforced errors will make for a fantastic year.

My question above was focused on how many more launches they could achieve if they pushed the Falcon Heavy launch to next year instead, meaning they would not have to stand LC39A down this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/05/2017 02:13 PM
This may give light.

Once LC39A goes into the support/mod/launch mode for FH the pad will at most only launch 3 more times this year. The CCtCAP in flight abort may move to next year. Leaving 2 FH launches only in Oct through Dec timeframe with the pad down from sometime in Aug.  But by the time it goes down it will have been launching at a rate of 2 a month June, July, and at least 1 in Aug. With the 2 FH launches this puts the total of launches for this year from LC39A at 12 with a possible 13.

LC4E will launch about 7 more timers this year for a total of 8 launches.

LC40 starting sometime in Aug or Sept will launch 4 to 5 times this year.

So it is possible for the total this year even with LC40 coming on line mid Sept for the total to be over 20. That is because by mid Aug LC39A will have mostly caught up with all the east coast launches by then and the rate of east coast launches fall off sharply to just a little more than an average of 1 a month off of the combined two pads. While LC4E will be doing an average of 1 per month since June and continuing through to Dec.

The count at the end of Aug should be 14 launches from the combined LC39A, LC4E and a possible launch from LC40.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: guckyfan on 06/05/2017 04:07 PM
Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line?  Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.

I think they would go into upgrading LC-39A. However I could imagine, if they are able to put up the crew arm quickly or can do it without the crew arm, they would launch the uncrewed Dragon 2, assuming it is ready to fly.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Toast on 06/06/2017 09:29 PM
I just did a quick trend line to estimate their launch cadence based on their launch history to date. I get an estimated gap between launches in days for the nth launch = 367.23 * n^-0.851 (optimistically, excluding the gap after the CRS-7/AMOS 6) or 322.48 * n^-0.755 (pessimistically, including all data). By these estimates, they'll hit 17-21 launches this year. That looks pretty plausible with their current schedule, since they're aiming for their tenth launch in early July.

Quick summary of data:
YearOptimistic LaunchesEnd of Year CadencePessimistic LaunchesEnd of Year Cadence
201721141718
20183582413
20195553310
2020834447

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/06/2017 09:53 PM
I just did a quick trend line to estimate their launch cadence based on their launch history to date. I get an estimated gap between launches in days for the nth launch = 367.23 * n^-0.851 (optimistically, excluding the gap after the CRS-7/AMOS 6) or 322.48 * n^-0.755 (pessimistically, including all data). By these estimates, they'll hit 17-21 launches this year. That looks pretty plausible with their current schedule, since they're aiming for their tenth launch in early July.

Quick summary of data:
YearOptimistic LaunchesEnd of Year CadencePessimistic LaunchesEnd of Year Cadence
201721141718
20183582413
20195553310
2020834447



What is "end of year cadence" in this table?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Toast on 06/06/2017 09:56 PM
What is "end of year cadence" in this table?

The gap between flights in days, e.g. at the end of 2018 flights will be an average of 8-13 days apart. Sorry, hard to fit more descriptive headers in BBCode tables.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/06/2017 10:11 PM
you can always use notes at the bottom (or force line breaks??)  thanks for putting that table together, helpful!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: spacenut on 06/07/2017 02:00 AM
I saw where the X-37 for the Air Force is to launch from 39A in August.  I thought it was supposed to be down to get ready for FH? 

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/07/2017 03:18 AM
I saw where the X-37 for the Air Force is to launch from 39A in August.  I thought it was supposed to be down to get ready for FH?

My interpretation of this announcement from the Air Force combined with Hans statement at the post-CRS-11 press conference is that SLC-40 won't be activated until September (late summer/early fall). As a result, SpaceX will continue launching from LC-39A into August (and September if SLC-40 remains offline).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Owlon on 06/23/2017 08:29 PM
BulgariaSat-1 makes eight, with the next flight scheduled in just two days.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/24/2017 01:35 AM
Some of the other implications are that with this next it will be 9 launches in 6 months. But also that in just the last 2 months it will be 5. At that rate you could have 15 more launches for the second half of the year. That gives a range of 18 to 24 for 2017.

But all indications is that there will be possibly 3 in July and 3 also in August. Bringing the number at the end of August to as high as 15. But that is where things slow down to probably not more than 2 a month for the remaining 4 months for a number of around 23 launches. The end of August wil be the true indicator of how the remaining of the year will play out as well as the probable number for the year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Johnnyhinbos on 06/24/2017 02:02 AM
I had predicted 18, which is right in the wheelhouse for this cadence. However I think it's worth pointing out that I never expected SpaceX to launch AND land two previously flown boosters by June. That is worth repeating and remembering, because it's truly amazing.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/25/2017 10:20 PM
Fantastic weekend for SpaceX. I predicted 15 for the year and now 6 months in I think I'm going to be under by at least 5 ... unbelievable.

Keep it going SpaceX, this Is really proving a year to remember for all the right reasons.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/26/2017 02:55 PM
If SpaceX was a country they would be the #1 launcher in the world.

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2017.htm (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2017.htm)

The 9 F9 launches in 2017 make up 22% of all the world's orbital launches.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: ZachS09 on 06/26/2017 03:59 PM
Well, I guess I underestimated SpaceX too much. I predicted only 10 flights due to worries of a repeat of the AMOS 6 pad failure.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/26/2017 04:55 PM
Mean and median (50% below and 50% above) of the poll is about the same value of ~14.5 launches for 2017. If all goes well and somewhat to plan, SpaceX will reach that value or surpass it by end of August with an additional 5 or 6 launches for a total of 14 or 15.

What this basically says is with 15 launches half the respondents will have guessed wrong even if no further launches occur after August.

My analysis of what SpaceX was capable of doing in 2017 was 21-25 launches. That guess is looking stronger and stronger.

Added: A BTW a value of 21 means only 7.5% guessed a value of this much or more.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: skybum on 06/26/2017 06:35 PM
My prediction of 12 is certainly looking very shabby at this point. Couldn't be happier! Really pleased and amazed by SpaceX's progress.

That said, I continue to worry about payload ability. That giant backlog doesn't mean that there's a warehouse full of payloads queued up and ready to launch. A lot of those birds haven't been built -- or at least finished -- yet; the customers will have been biding their time. Although they of course *want* to launch ASAP, it's just an inefficient use of capital to build your payload too long before the expected launch date -- so if their expectation, based on launch rate thus far, was that it would still be another year or two, then those payloads won't be ready to go for a while.

Hopefully the last few months have lit a fire under the customers' tails and gotten their production lines moving. There will be some inertia, however. For that reason, I'd still be surprised if there were more than 18 launches this year. (Pulled a number out of a hat; I don't have any insider info).

(And obviously, I'd *love* to be surprised like that!)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/26/2017 06:58 PM
Well, without really thinking about it here are 9 more launch payloads I think we can be confident will be ready this year:

Intelsat
Formosat
Iridium x3
CRS-12 & CRS-13
SES-11
X-37B

So purely in terms of payload availability I think 20 launches is easily doable by year end. But I do agree that at current rate of progress there may be some payload gaps in 2018 or 2019.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Zed_Noir on 06/26/2017 08:29 PM
Well, without really thinking about it here are 9 more launch payloads I think we can be confident will be ready this year:

Intelsat
Formosat
Iridium x3
CRS-12 & CRS-13
SES-11
X-37B
Falcon Heavy Demo

Presuming they can modified TEL and GSE with no issues.

Supposedly without a payload from a customer. But SpaceX might put something interesting up.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/27/2017 06:43 PM
Well, without really thinking about it here are 9 more launch payloads I think we can be confident will be ready this year:

Intelsat
Formosat
Iridium x3
CRS-12 & CRS-13
SES-11
X-37B
Falcon Heavy Demo

Presuming they can modified TEL and GSE with no issues.

Supposedly without a payload from a customer. But SpaceX might put something interesting up.
Considering the fact that 5 to 6 of those listed of the 10 will be launched by the end of August that only leaves at most 5 launches for the remaining 4 months. 3 of those are launches from SLC-4E. Which leaves only CRS 13 and FH launches in the list one each for LC=39A and LC-40. There will likely be a couple additional but another launch from LC-39A after FH may not happen this year but 2 to 4 launches this year is highly likely (one of those 2 to 4 is the CRS-13 launch).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/27/2017 06:53 PM
July and August seem gappy right now... it's not clear that we can see 3 a month there.  We may only see one in August due to payload availability. What a quick turnaround that was.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: gongora on 06/27/2017 07:02 PM
August actually looks quite likely for three (CRS-12, Formosat-5, OTV-5).  And there will probably be more payloads ready than rockets available in September.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/27/2017 07:15 PM
What do you know? it's not like you're the keeper of the manifest thread now or anything.  oh, wait...

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0 (the manifest thread)

Well, September is gappy then ...
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Tass on 06/27/2017 07:43 PM
Woohoo!

For the first time I wasn't too optimistic. I've been one too high the previous three years. Each year I tried to adjust to a bit more pessimistic to correct the apparent optimistic bias I had. And still ended up one too high because of the accidents. Amazingly my predictions still increased every year.

Now it looks like they might blow right through my prediction of nine for this year. Please no accidents. I would very much like to be very wrong.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/27/2017 08:00 PM
Yeah let's not jinx it with premature celebrations. :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/27/2017 08:34 PM
The new shakeout
https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/06/27/spacex-will-try-for-third-falcon-9-launch-in-less-than-two-weeks/ (https://spaceflightnow.com/2017/06/27/spacex-will-try-for-third-falcon-9-launch-in-less-than-two-weeks/)
is only 1 in July and 3 in August. So only 4 more by end of August. But before September actually had no launches in the manifest but it now has several. So those 2 that would have been in July shifted pushing them out into September (1 LC-4E and 1 LC-40?).

But the real question in all of this is what is the status of LC-40?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/27/2017 11:00 PM
Core production looks to be the bottleneck for the scarcity of launches in July. We know the first Block IVs should be rolling off the line, so this could be part of the reason for the gap in cores rolling off the production line.

If more customers are willing to take re-used boosters (e.g. SES-14 and SES-16), that should allow SpaceX to continue to increase their launch rate by shifting the bottleneck to pad availability.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Rebel44 on 06/27/2017 11:08 PM
Core production looks to be the bottleneck for the scarcity of launches in July. We know the first Block IVs should be rolling off the line, so this could be part of the reason for the gap in cores rolling off the production line.

If more customers are willing to take re-used boosters (e.g. SES-14 and SES-16), that should allow SpaceX to continue to increase their launch rate by shifting the bottleneck to pad availability.
/speculation/
SpaceX might also make the best of this limitation by launching several rockets as close to each other as possible -
 resulting in longer window between the and next group of launches - during which they can start doing some of the work on 39A, that will be needed for crew missions and Falcon Heavy
/speculation/
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Skylab on 06/28/2017 10:55 AM
July looks like a very quiet month, but we've been spoiled earlier. Just one launch on July 2nd? And my estimate of 15 launches was probably low, but I'm very happy to admit that.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: philw1776 on 06/29/2017 01:46 PM
Core production looks to be the bottleneck for the scarcity of launches in July. We know the first Block IVs should be rolling off the line, so this could be part of the reason for the gap in cores rolling off the production line.

If more customers are willing to take re-used boosters (e.g. SES-14 and SES-16), that should allow SpaceX to continue to increase their launch rate by shifting the bottleneck to pad availability.

Seem to remember Shotwell saying more than once that core production rampped up to 20/year.  If so, given the already happened reflight of cores with more reflights  currently planned for this year, there should already be a surplus of new cores at this year's halfway point.  Perhaps refurb efforts have been at the manpower expense of building new cores at the factory potential rate?  I'm confused. 

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 06/29/2017 02:01 PM
Core production looks to be the bottleneck for the scarcity of launches in July. We know the first Block IVs should be rolling off the line, so this could be part of the reason for the gap in cores rolling off the production line.

If more customers are willing to take re-used boosters (e.g. SES-14 and SES-16), that should allow SpaceX to continue to increase their launch rate by shifting the bottleneck to pad availability.

Seem to remember Shotwell saying more than once that core production rampped up to 20/year.  If so, given the already happened reflight of cores with more reflights  currently planned for this year, there should already be a surplus of new cores at this year's halfway point.  Perhaps refurb efforts have been at the manpower expense of building new cores at the factory potential rate?  I'm confused.

Looks like the July delay is due to Eastern Range maintenance, not core production. So your thinking is probably right. The other question mark for core production is how long the ramp up back to 20/year took after the close out of the Amos-6 failure.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/29/2017 03:49 PM
The real item about how many F9's SpaceX could launch from just one pad is being demonstrated now at LC39A. A 9 day interval between launches means that theoretically SpaceX could launch from LC39A 36 times in one year. So pad limitations are not a problem with high launch rates. It is Range limitations. With a hotfire preceding launch, an F9 with its backup launch dates ties up the Range for 6 days for each launch. So if SpaceX is at the mercy of the range launch slots. With other ops, range maintenance down time (~30 days every year), and weather delays that theoretical max from just a single pad LC39A is not achievable with the range as it exists today.

So the limitations for SpaceX achieving very high launch rates are mainly due to external items not any internal ones. At a 20 core production rate of Block 5 cores (mainly upper stages) where actually 5 1st stages are produced and 50 upper stages are produced. The pads of LC39A (a capability of 36), LC40 (a capability of 24), and LC4E (a capability of  18) for a total capability of 78 there is no limitation there against launching 50 times in one year. The limitations come from range availability eastern range slots available of about 20-25, western range of about 12. Payloads, here there is the real limiting factor in that there is just not that many payloads needing launch. Only about 20-25 in one year. A real race to populate very large LEO constellation (>1000 sats for each constellation) will greatly increase that demand but that is not occurring until the 2020+ timeframe.

For 2017 and 2018 the main limitation is the paylaods and the ranges.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/29/2017 03:58 PM
On core production rates.... at a typical car plant, they quote "one vehicle every 120 seconds" or whatever... that gives you a rate of 30 (vehicles per hour) * 24 * 365... or 262800 vehicles a year. But they don't build that number of vehicles because there is a "model changeover" each year, even if they quote that rate...

Perhaps Gwynne's 20 a year doesn't assume the "model changeover gap" for going to block 5, and the actual number is lower this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: RedLineTrain on 06/29/2017 04:13 PM
Or, to put it more succinctly, the annual production rate will be different that the production rate at any one time:  day, monthly, quarterly, etc.

But just to be clear, Shotwell said that they will produce 20+ this year.  So the back half of the year could ramp up the rate.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: guckyfan on 06/29/2017 04:48 PM
Perhaps Gwynne's 20 a year doesn't assume the "model changeover gap" for going to block 5, and the actual number is lower this year.

If I remember correctly Gwynne Shotwell mentioned that they have gotten much better at handling the switchover and won't suffer production breaks as they did before.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 06/29/2017 04:58 PM
Perhaps Gwynne's 20 a year doesn't assume the "model changeover gap" for going to block 5, and the actual number is lower this year.

If I remember correctly Gwynne Shotwell mentioned that they have gotten much better at handling the switchover and won't suffer production breaks as they did before.

Well yeah. But I think the longer term shift to 50 S2 / 10 S1 from 20 S2 /20 S1 (or whatever the ratios end up being) might take a bit longer than changing S2 or S1 details...

Also @RedLineTrain, are you saying I was wordy? ???  LOL
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 06/30/2017 02:01 AM
From the standpoint of production in 2017 so far the first 4 months was 3 new boosters and the last 2 months 4 boosters. That is going from a production rate at the beginning of the year of .75 boosters per month to the current rate of 2 boosters per month.  If the production remains at 2 /month for the rest of the year (12 new boosters) + the already flown 7 is 19 boosters.

This ramp up also tells a little about why the Iridium launch was delayed into June. The build rate just did not support more launches earlier in the year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 07/01/2017 06:35 AM
A 9 day interval between launches means that theoretically SpaceX could launch from LC39A 36 times in one year.

It may be significant that the launch at the end of this 9 day period is an expendable one, so no landing legs or grid fins to worry about. That may have shaved a bit off the turn around time. Although I presume that block 5 should be able to do this anyway due to re-use without refurbishment (and so presumably no need to change legs or fins) ?

The 6 days just achieved between launch & static fire is impressive in terms of pad turnaround (compared to what it used to be).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/06/2017 12:21 AM
10 launches in 6 months on Falcon 9. Can't remember the last time a launch provider accomplished a similar feat.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Bubbinski on 07/06/2017 12:36 AM
I voted for 10 launches for the year.

It's July 5th, and SpaceX has successfully launched its 10th flight of the year.

When Elon talks about insanely high launch rates I no longer dismiss that as wild, crazy optimism.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: envy887 on 07/06/2017 02:07 AM
10 launches in 6 months on Falcon 9. Can't remember the last time a launch provider accomplished a similar feat.

Soyuz launched 10 times in 5 months just last year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 07/06/2017 11:58 AM
10 launches in 6 months on Falcon 9. Can't remember the last time a launch provider accomplished a similar feat.

Soyuz launched 10 times in 5 months just last year.

Yes, if you count all the Soyuz variants as the same vehicle. Soyuz 2 flew 8 times in 6 months in 2016 by my count.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: QuantumG on 07/06/2017 11:28 PM
Is it all the same team?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/07/2017 12:20 AM
Having voted 21-25. This now leaves only 11 more to get to my stance. With highly probable of 4 more if not 5 from SLC-4E plus 2 additional launches in Aug from LC39A then the FH demo and then another 4 from LC40 that is then 11 or 12 more for the year. 11 or 12 launches sound like a lot but spread across 3 pads that is only 4 per pad over a period of almost 6 months. No single pad will be strained in getting it's launches off. It only leaves the readiness of the payloads and availability of new and used boosters.

From Payloads standpoint at least three payloads for SLC-4E is not in question with the other 2 likely to be ready. For LC39A all the payloads are with no question for the 2 in Aug and the FH. For the 4 from LC40 1 is the CRS-13 and 2 are SES sats. Only 1 more of 3 possibles is needed to get to 4.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: envy887 on 07/07/2017 02:38 AM
Is it all the same team?

I think both Falcon and Soyuz have multiple launch site teams, as both have had multiple launch sites with very closely timed launches.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: gongora on 07/07/2017 03:05 AM
Soyuz also has those 21 extra flights coming up from 2018-2020 for Oneweb.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: cwr on 07/07/2017 03:19 AM
Is it all the same team?

I remember a post by padrat when SpaceX was granted the lease of LC39A.
He said that SpaceX had formed 3 launch teams.
The LC39A team was basically the team that had been doing the LC40 launches prior to that.
The LC40 team was basically a new team [with a leavening of old LC40 and SLC4E people - my assumption]
The SLC4E team was basically the old SLC4E team [plus some new recruits to flesh out losses to the LC39 or LC40 teams - my assumption].

Unfortunately I couldn't find the actual post to include a link to it, so I've just listed my recollections.
I've not heard anything in the intervening time to suggest that SpaceX did not follow through on that plan.
Plus at the time of the BulgariaSat and Iridium 2 launches in the span of a few days, I recollect a confirmation of multiple teams, but I don't recollect where I saw that confirmation.

Carl
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/04/2017 10:20 PM
My latest evaluation is for no more than a total of 21. That is with a total of just 12 in 2H with the 9 in 1H. But by the end of the 3Q the count could be as much as 15 if the 2 flights at the very end of the month of Sept hold to schedule. That is an average launch rate of 1 launch every 18.25 days.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 08/14/2017 09:24 PM
With CRS-12 SpaceX's 11 flights this year now exceeds the 9 or 10 that ULA will do in 2017. Still on track for 20+
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 08/14/2017 09:43 PM
As of Aug 14

Number of people who were wrong: 52 (16.25%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 18 (5.6%)
Assuming anything can happen, the number of people that could still be right: 268 (83.75%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/20/2017 09:16 PM
My numbers and the estimate is now down at least 3 from the max value I stated in end of June.

At end of Aug the count will be only 12 instead of the possible of 14/15 that was envisioned at the end of June. But the story looks to be that around 8 more flights are in for the year (likely) with a possible +1 for 9 in the next 4 months. It is not likely for the rate to be more than an average of 2 per month but also not likely to be less than an average of 2 per month.

So the high probabilities (unless there is a launch incident) to 18 to 21 with the most likely to be 19 or 20 for the year. Interestingly the highest correct is if the number for the year is 18 which would be 26 correct guesses and the lowest if the number is 19 which would be only 9 correct answers.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 08/21/2017 12:54 AM
Is it too early to discuss a suitable poll range for Lar for next year? What value should be near the centre of the range, equivalent to 12 in this one?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/21/2017 01:37 AM
The expected center for a 2018 poll based on what has launched so far in 8 months which includes this next upcoming launch this week would be a value of 18. So that would be the logical center value. So what would be the low end and the high end. I would say a low value of "6 or less" and a high value of "26 or more" with values of 7 to 25 incremented by 1 in between. To have individual values of 0 to 6 would not make much sense unless there is a launch hiatus that could last as much as a year because of some incident that happened in 2017. Considering that SpaceX has yet to have a stand-down for barely longer than 6 months.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 08/21/2017 01:59 AM
good discussion, I'll keep it in mind. I don't care about lots of choices. I think I should have went higher before switching to ranges this year.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Joffan on 08/21/2017 05:02 AM
Assuming a trouble-free completion of 2017, I'd say that anything less than 10 orbital launches in 2018 is equivalent to "something goes drastically wrong". Separating out that range is simply betting when in the year that event occurs; we can cover that bet with a 0-9 range at the bottom. Then we can let the optimism express itself by unit increments up to say 30, and break to high-optimism ranges from there up.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 08/21/2017 12:42 PM
Assuming a trouble-free completion of 2017, I'd say that anything less than 10 orbital launches in 2018 is equivalent to "something goes drastically wrong". Separating out that range is simply betting when in the year that event occurs; we can cover that bet with a 0-9 range at the bottom. Then we can let the optimism express itself by unit increments up to say 30, and break to high-optimism ranges from there up.

You might want to take something into account: assuming a trouble free 2017 at two launches per month means SpaceX would reach their previous record streak of succesful launches this year, and reduce their F9 failure rate to the lowest it's been since CRS-7 in februari next year. (before that it was 0%).

People might want to bet on SpaceX having matured enough to no longer have any catastrophic failures, or rather that they're about due for another RUD, according to their personal preferences. That said, another three succesful launches followed by an RUD would still result in a lower failure rate than AMOS-6, which pushed the failure rate to 6.90%. For those still reading: SpaceX already/only improved their failure rate to the CRS-7 level two launches ago. The lowest point to beat is 3.57%, just before AMOS-6.

Sorry for sneeking up on you with gratuitous statistics. Where better to do some numbercrunching than a poll. ;-)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: vapour_nudge on 08/22/2017 10:04 AM
Perhaps just put the numbers 0 to 35 down the left hand column and let the pollers decide.
After all you're only saving a few bytes on a web page

Or we could have a poll to decide the launch number options of the 2018 poll.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Joffan on 08/24/2017 07:17 PM
And with Formosat successfully deployed, SpaceX reaches 12 launches for the year, getting to the most popular value. With over four months left in 2017.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 08/24/2017 08:44 PM
Perhaps just put the numbers 0 to 35 down the left hand column and let the pollers decide.
After all you're only saving a few bytes on a web page

If I do the poll next year it is very likely this is exactly what I do. I don't care that some of the low numbers get few or no votes, that's ok. What I mostly care about is how high to go before switching to ranges and whether to go straight to 5 range or do 2 for a while or what.

(I think this is the last year that it was safe to do ranges starting at 21...)

Quote
Or we could have a poll to decide the launch number options of the 2018 poll.
Ha ha very funny. I'll get right on that.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: gongora on 08/25/2017 02:47 AM
There are around 30 launches on the manifest for next year.  I don't think there's much point going higher than that (except maybe a >30 option) on the next poll.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 08/25/2017 03:04 AM
0
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
11-12
13-14
15-16
17-18
19-20
21-22
23-24
25-26
27-28
29-30
31-32
33-34
35 or more

I don't think it matters whether they get, say, 21 rather than 22 launches. Once ranges get large enough, it's "around the same". If they get 5/6, it means something's gone horribly wrong. If they get 29/30, it means something's gone horribly right.

If they get above 30 launches next year, switch to triple ranges for the year after. 0, 1-3, 4-6...37-39, 40-42, 43 or more. Once they reach weekly launches, switch to 5-fold ranges.

[edit: 42, 42.]
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: schaban on 08/25/2017 04:40 AM
...reach weekly launches, switch to 5-fold ranges.

but... what the point of the poll then?

I understand historically you want to predict if they beat other (and by how much) providers, failures and such, but with 50+ / year would anyone care to predict at all?

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 08/25/2017 05:43 AM
There are a few other companies that have been suggesting that they would be able to launch much faster than SpaceX, with their reusability/launching to orbit making it impossible to launch regularly. So if SpaceX ever reaches 50+ launches, this poll will probably change somewhat to see who will launch 'most' rockets. Even though we're talking about launch systems with entirely different payload ranges and destinations.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Paul451 on 08/25/2017 05:45 AM
but... what the point of the poll then?
I understand historically you want to predict if they beat other (and by how much) providers, failures and such, but with 50+ / year would anyone care to predict at all?

{shrug} By that point, it'll be a site tradition. Try stopping it.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 08/28/2017 06:23 PM
SpaceX still needs to have 3 more successful launches to pass the mean/median of the poll (14.5). But once past that value there will be more that under guessed the number of launches than over guessed. As the numbers continue to climb the ratio gets quickly worse. Which is my way of saying that we are a very pessimistic bunch.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: john smith 19 on 08/28/2017 06:52 PM
So the high probabilities (unless there is a launch incident) to 18 to 21 with the most likely to be 19 or 20 for the year. Interestingly the highest correct is if the number for the year is 18 which would be 26 correct guesses and the lowest if the number is 19 which would be only 9 correct answers.

I think that was really their core goal, to reach and sustain a launch rate of every 2 weeks.

Which seems to be working. 
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 08/28/2017 07:25 PM
SpaceX still needs to have 3 more successful launches to pass the mean/median of the poll (14.5). But once past that value there will be more that under guessed the number of launches than over guessed. As the numbers continue to climb the ratio gets quickly worse. Which is my way of saying that we are a very pessimistic bunch.

I am not sure I agree (and I'm a giant fan boy). I don't think we passed the median in 2015, or in 2016. Let's not count our falcons until they launch.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 08/28/2017 09:36 PM
Yeah, for guys that still put a four clover on their missions patches, the thirteenth launch could make them anxious. Anxious enough to move the static fire date :p
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: CraigLieb on 08/31/2017 01:24 PM
Binning at each end in larger bins makes more sense
0-4
5-8
... by twos
30-34
35 or more
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: John Alan on 08/31/2017 08:54 PM
Personally... I rather next year be 1 to 50 in single digit steps and let the members pick to the single digit...
Yes... suks to make a poll that big... but it does collect better data to then analyze the crap out of as we are known to do...   ;)  ;D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 09/01/2017 04:07 AM
leaning to that. [1] Or maybe I'll do ONLY odd numbers, LOL[2]

1 - I have no life and it doesn't take that long.
2 - not a serious suggestion.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: majormajor42 on 09/07/2017 02:34 PM
over that biggest hump at 12. Thirty-six percent of you were too pessimistic (or optimistic if rooting against SpaceX).

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: RonM on 09/07/2017 03:40 PM
I'm impressed SpaceX has already hit my guess of 12 flights. I figured with SLC-40 down for most of the year they couldn't get more than that.

Also an impressive run of successful first stage landings.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/07/2017 04:38 PM
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: moreno7798 on 09/10/2017 01:12 AM
So the only way that my guess at 15 will be true now is if Imra causes significant damage and SpaceX just get a couple more off from VAFB ... I really hope that doesn't happen.

I think there'll definitely be some sort of hiatus due to Imra though. My guess is that 20 is perhaps the best SpaceX can do this year now? I'll be very happy to see my guess being too low.

For the looks of it so far, Irma will not significantly impact the cape. I'm in Fort Lauderdale right now camping out at a hotel and it seems Irma is going to have "moderate impact" here, and much less of an impact up north at the cape. For the Space Coast, it's mostly going to be (at most) a Tropical Storm kind of event.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/14/2017 08:03 AM
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Owlon on 09/15/2017 03:01 AM
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 09/16/2017 08:17 PM
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/16/2017 10:17 PM
Irma may cause some slips. The first being the ULA launch scheduled for Sept 28. If that one slips then there is a question as to whether the following SpaceX launch scheduled for Oct 2 will slip or the ULA launch plays leap frog for a launch date after the F9 launch. 18 days should be plenty of time for SpaceX to get back on track for the next launch flow. Since they have been able to do flows on LC39A in 14 days launch to launch. As far as any damage to SpaceX facilities so far none have been mentioned. But getting KSC/Cape back up and running after being down for a week is not trivial, primarily road cleanup and other ancillary things like water. There is one item not mentioned but is a concern and that is worker distraction. Because of events work will be slowed just to keep from having accidents/errors occur. This last may be the biggest impact on the near term schedules, not any of the damages or cleanup activities.

But as far as the ultimate impact by Irma on SpaceX launch schedule for the year is likely to be minimal or at worst about a general slip in schedules of not more than 2 weeks. The almost 1 month time between the OTV-5 and the SES-11 with Irma following the OTV-5 within just days may prove no more than a nuisance for SpaceX as far as their work on getting SLC-40 operational as well as work they had planned on performing on LC39A for the 4 week work period between launches cut short by Irma.

The current count is at 13. But Oct has a possibility of 3 launches scheduled. If that goes well the count at end of Oct would be 16. A count of 15 would be greater than the mean/median (14.5) of the poll.

As far as Nov and Dec: 2 in Nov one from LC-40 and SLC-4E each, 2 in Dec one from LC39A (FH) and LC-40 each. There is always a possibility of one more during Nov or Dec but the year is shaping up to make that unlikely.

Total projected for 2017 -> 20.

It's looking more and more like this is finally the year I wasn't wildly optimistic (I voted 18). Already more launches than the first five years of F9.

Just the first four, according to the Spacex launch log in the Spacex general section. Or when do you start counting?
It is 5: 2010,2011,2012,2013.2014

Unless you are not counting 2011 which had no launches.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 09/20/2017 08:46 PM
I started counting from the day of their first launch, not calendar years ;-)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 09/30/2017 01:28 PM
Just spotted that no-one posted this from Elonís BFR 2 talk at IAC 2017.

SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: hop on 09/30/2017 09:55 PM
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Zed_Noir on 10/01/2017 02:29 AM
Just spotted that no-one posted this from Elonís BFR 2 talk at IAC 2017.

SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.

I read somewhere that the 20 flight total does not include the Falcon Heavy test flight, since it is not a revenue generating flight.

Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Endeavour_01 on 10/02/2017 07:45 PM
I'm impressed SpaceX has already hit my guess of 12 flights. I figured with SLC-40 down for most of the year they couldn't get more than that.

Also an impressive run of successful first stage landings.

I had the same rationale when I guessed 12. Impressed and happy that my guess has turned out to be too low.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 10/02/2017 08:58 PM
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: smoliarm on 10/04/2017 10:22 PM
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
Couple suggestions for the next poll
1. it is better to set poll quantiles of equal value through the whole range of poll values (it is a typical recommendation for professional poll developers). Otherwise it is difficult to apply statistical processing to the results. Second reason (and may be more important): simple bar graph of poll results gives distorted picture - if quantiles are of different sizes.
I would recommend double quantiles throughout the whole range (except the first and the last) - just like Paul451 suggested earlier:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1716006#msg1716006
2. As I see the purpose of polls, an attempt to predict is not the only one. The distribution of results also characterizes the crowd at NSF, which is interesting just as well. Therefore, I'd suggest not to cut the poll range close to 30. Yes, rockets do not fly without payloads, I know. But some people don't take this into consideration. And their distribution is interesting too :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 10/09/2017 08:19 PM
SpaceX appear to have revised their target for this year down to 20.
And we have an official SpaceX target of 30 for the next year, which IMO gives a reasonable upper bound for the serious options in the next poll.

Thanks for trying to save me some keystrokes but I can see them getting ahead of schedule. Maybe. So I probably will go to 35 in single digits before switching to ranges.
Couple suggestions for the next poll
1. it is better to set poll quantiles of equal value through the whole range of poll values (it is a typical recommendation for professional poll developers). Otherwise it is difficult to apply statistical processing to the results. Second reason (and may be more important): simple bar graph of poll results gives distorted picture - if quantiles are of different sizes.
I would recommend double quantiles throughout the whole range (except the first and the last) - just like Paul451 suggested earlier:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1716006#msg1716006
2. As I see the purpose of polls, an attempt to predict is not the only one. The distribution of results also characterizes the crowd at NSF, which is interesting just as well. Therefore, I'd suggest not to cut the poll range close to 30. Yes, rockets do not fly without payloads, I know. But some people don't take this into consideration. And their distribution is interesting too :)

Without knowing the practice of professional poll developers, I made a similar point in my analysis of the poll (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.msg1632229#msg1632229).  The votes for large ranges were split uniformly into intervals that matched the rest of the poll (single numbers) so they could be displayed together.
The second point is also well taken, and it appears that Lar is already planning on that.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 10/09/2017 08:29 PM
Also, with 14 launches so far this year, 151 of 320 votes (47%) are now underestimates.
The guesses of 145 of those 320 (45%) are for at least one more
The remaining 24 guessed that SpaceX would only get this far by the end of the year, still 83 days away
Given that the poll is about launches, not launch successes, it is reasonable to conclude that the NSF crowd as a whole was overly pessimistic about SpaceX in 2017. 
Who would have thought?
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 10/09/2017 08:38 PM
After how many years in a row of overoptimistic averages, who can blame us for undershooting.

I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll, the values 0-40 (41 choices) plus "over 40"
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Port on 10/09/2017 08:51 PM
well the median is 14 and the mean 14,4 pm 4,3 (when averaging the 21+ options out), i'd call that not too bad for "guessing"
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 10/09/2017 09:28 PM
well the median is 14 and the mean 14,4 pm 4,3 (when averaging the 21+ options out), i'd call that not too bad for "guessing"
If you posted that on 31 December (and SpaceX had achieved just 14 launches) I'd give you more credence than if you posted it today. We have more launches coming.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Port on 10/09/2017 09:34 PM
they will have no more than 4 launches, which is within standard deviation ;) (don't take this too serious)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Svetoslav on 10/09/2017 09:39 PM
I'm glad to have been proven wrong and pessimistic :) I voted for 6 flights :D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Lar on 10/09/2017 09:55 PM
they will have no more than 4 launches, which is within standard deviation ;) (don't take this too serious)
Are you new around here or something? LOL
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: meberbs on 10/09/2017 10:07 PM
I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll,
This is the correct number  ;)

Currently I expect a total of 20 this year, assuming current rates are maintained, which puts my original guess of 21-25 as slightly optimistic.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: mikelepage on 10/10/2017 07:47 AM
After how many years in a row of overoptimistic averages, who can blame us for undershooting.

I am going to have 42 choices in the next poll, the values 0-40 (41 choices) plus "over 40"

I'm looking forward to the year in which you have ranges at the lower end.  ;)
If all goes well, 2018 may be the last year in which you don't...
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 10/11/2017 02:43 PM
So, will SpaceX beat Russia to have the most launches in 2017?

20 launches for SpaceX (21 with FH?) seems to be the upper limit. The Russian launch manifest has a possible 24 launches for the year, but only 13 have already occurred (2 more coming shortly and another at the end of the month). Looks like it could be close.

Edit: In a similar comparative vein, I wonder when Falcon 9 will pass Atlas V in lifetime launches. If SpaceX is able to finish with 20 launches this year and 30 next year, then they'd be on track to pass Atlas 5 sometime in 2019. Crazy!
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 10/12/2017 12:19 AM
For those interested in # launches per country or launcher this is the site that gives the info in a nice visible graphic.
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2017.htm (http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2017.htm) Plus it has been updated already with the last F9 launch that just happened just barely an hour ago. Meaning the data is almost always up to date.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: high road on 10/12/2017 09:01 PM

Woohoo, I finally underestimated SpaceX. Keep em coming.

After today's success, F9's failure rate has fallen below the point where a new mishap would return it to Amos VI levels. With the final upgrade coming up, let's hope it was all just growing pains.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: lele on 10/12/2017 09:23 PM
I (re)found a relevant Elon quote (http://shitelonsays.com/transcript/spacex-next-falcon-heavy-press-conference-2011-04-05#quote_-1715077659) from 2011:

Quote
Twenty launches a year, is not a crazy number at all. We expect that to occur without any miracles.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 10/15/2017 12:15 AM
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: AbuSimbel on 10/15/2017 09:44 AM
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.
They also have that mysterious mission up their sleeve, don't forget  ;D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 10/16/2017 10:35 PM
With 3 for sure scheduled launches in the remaining of the year Koreasat, CRS, and Iridium #4, just 2 more and the 20 value would be reached. But the two still listed for 2017 is FH Demo and Hispasat. The likeliness for those two launching 2017 is falling but still have yet to move out of 2017 so they could still happen.
They also have that mysterious mission up their sleeve, don't forget  ;D
The mystery launch has been confirmed with a launch date of the 15th. See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.msg1738338#msg1738338 (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43976.msg1738338#msg1738338)

So the remainder of 2017:
#16 Koreasat
#17 ZUMA
#18 CRS
#19 Irridium
#20 ?Hispasat
#21 ?FH

So at least 19 but a possible 21 8)

BTW my guess was 21.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: John Alan on 10/17/2017 03:37 PM
And my guess was 19 (one of nine to pick that number)...  :D
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: rockets4life97 on 10/19/2017 02:24 PM
We are going to need a poll for the number of re-used booster flights for 2018. It seems more than possible that half the flights next year will be on re-used boosters. Getting CRS and Iridium flights all on re-used would be a major score for SpaceX. Especially since the first multiple re-use (3,4,5 flights of the same booster) will probably all come with LEO flights.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: John Alan on 10/19/2017 02:33 PM
Suggest two polls on topic for 2018...

1) number of SpaceX launches in 2018...
 (already discussed (1-35), Lar said he would start it later (in Dec?))

2) percentage of 2018 flights that go on 'flight proven" cores...
(should discuss block size... 5% blocks?... 0.5.10,15,) or what makes sense)

To me, this makes the most sense... as 2 relates to 1 in many ways...  :)
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Rebel44 on 10/19/2017 08:13 PM
.....
2) percentage of 2018 flights that go on 'flight proven" cores...
(should discuss block size... 5% blocks?... 0.5.10,15,) or what makes sense)

To me, this makes the most sense... as 2 relates to 1 in many ways...  :)

I would prefer counting number of flights of used 1st stages.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: Comga on 10/30/2017 07:43 PM
With KoreaSat-5 as the 16th of the year, 206 out of 320 of us, 64%, me included, were, let's say, insufficiently optimistic.
With 3 more on the manifest before the end of the year, not including Heavy, there is a chance that the vast majority of us will have guessed low for the year.
That's quite interesting.
So much for being a bunch of fanboys and "the wisdom of the crowd."
It may also cause next year's guessing to be all over the map.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 10/30/2017 08:08 PM
If # 2017 IS    Insufficiently Optimistic voters
19                  85%
20                  88% if either FH or Hispasat launches
21                  93% if both FH and Hispasat launches

Don't count either of FH or Hispasat out just yet.
Information is showing up that SpaceX is trying to get FH launched by year end.

If CRS-13 goes on time there is enough time for LC-40 to do Hispasat in last week of Dec between XMas and New Year.

But even though it is possible, there are the unknowns that can push things out a week which would be enough to put both into 2018.
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: david1971 on 10/31/2017 05:17 AM
I was looking for context on "how good" is 16 successful orbital launches in a year, so I went to Ed's site.

Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   

Long March 2/3/4
2011     19(1)
2012     19(0)
2015     17(0)
2016     19(2)

Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).
Title: Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/31/2017 12:45 PM
SpaceNews comparison of 16 launches with commercial SpaceX competitors (ULA, Arianespace, Proton):

http://spacenews.com/spacex-ties-ulas-annual-launch-record-with-16th-launch-this-year/ (http://spacenews.com/spacex-ties-ulas-annual-launch-record-with-16th-launch-this-year/)

Article says most ULA launches in a year (2009) was also 16, whereas Arianespace max is 12 and Proton 14 (whilst acknowledging that Ariane launches are typically dual).