Author Topic: STS 116: Saturday Weather  (Read 19842 times)

Offline astrobrian

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STS 116: Saturday Weather
« on: 12/09/2006 03:51 am »

Shall we try again :)

 

Currently still 70% with the info I heard last 


Offline Andrewwski

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #1 on: 12/09/2006 03:54 am »
70% chance of weather prohibiting launch.  That's 30% chance of acceptable launch weather.

Not looking too great.
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Offline astrobrian

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #2 on: 12/09/2006 05:59 am »
Florida Today is quoting it now at 60% no-go ,  so we are back where we were there other day I guess

Offline Johnny Rönnberg

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #3 on: 12/09/2006 11:05 am »
Some updates on the weather at the TAL-sites?
"You see one Earth, you've seen them all."

Offline DaveS

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #4 on: 12/09/2006 11:31 am »
Quote
Johnny Rönnberg - 9/12/2006  12:48 PM

Some updates on the weather at the TAL-sites?
Te Spaceflight Meteorology Group at JSC in charge of weather forecasting at the various abort sites holds Moron, Spain and Istres, France as go for launch.

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
100 PM CST FRIDAY DECEMBER 08 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                DATE:      12/10/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030 SCT200                  7              04012P18
      CHC BKN030 CHC SHRA WI 20

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT040 SCT250                  7              30010P15
      SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  FEW020                         7              04006P09


 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  FEW030 SCT150                  7              35009P16


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  SCT030 SCT200                  7              04012P18
      CHC BKN030 CHC SHRA WI 30

 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z
 EDW  SCT050 SCT200                  7              22010P18
      CHC BKN060 SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30

 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
 NOR ... NONE
 EDW ... CIG/PRECIP
 ZZA ... PRECIP
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 09/1300

 KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
 EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEZG
 MRN...MORON SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEMO
 FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
       ICAO ID IS LFMI

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Offline Johnny Rönnberg

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #5 on: 12/09/2006 11:47 am »
Thanks! :)
"You see one Earth, you've seen them all."

Offline eeergo

Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #6 on: 12/09/2006 11:53 am »
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteusnational/southeastussatellite_large_animated.html

Pretty useful animated weather link. Gordo posted it the other day.
-DaviD-

Offline eeergo

Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #7 on: 12/09/2006 12:07 pm »
Mmmm... I think I understand the 60-70% "no go" for today... look at those horrible clouds coming from the Gulf! I hope they pass by for launch time...
-DaviD-

Offline TALsite

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #8 on: 12/09/2006 12:36 pm »
ZARAGOZA

From INM Spain
Expected:

Rain probabilities:  now 20% turning to 5% in next 12 hours.
Winds: now 29 km/h W -  turning to 22 NW in next 12 hours.
Temp: Max 12 º C  Min  6º C

Looking from my window, we have NOW a SUNNY day with light winds.
Perfect to salute a Shuttle Launch…


Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #9 on: 12/09/2006 01:51 pm »
DaveS - you posted yesterday's forecast. Eerrgo - those clouds over the Gulf are not approaching KSC. TAL is not a problem, this is all on KSC... Winds are the biggest concern - since it is a night launch they have very little leeway.

 NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
 SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
 LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
 HOUSTON TX              77058
 705 AM CST SATURDAY DECEMBER 09 2006
 
 LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116                                              
 
 EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                 DATE:      12/10/06
 
  RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES                  
  SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL        
  KSC  SCT040 BKN200                  7              06012P18  
       CHC BKN040 CHC SHRA WI 20          
                                                 
  TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES  
 
  ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
  ZZA  SCT035                         7              30012P18            
       CHC BKN035 CHC SHRA WI 20                                            
 
  MORON...SPAIN
  MRN  SCT030                         7              06012P18        
                                         
 
  ISTRES...FRANCE
  FMI  SCT030                         7              33012P18        
                                               
                                           
  ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
  NOR  FEW050                         7              22008P12  
                                                   
                                         
  PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z              
  EDW  BKN040                         7              21015P25  
       SHRA WI 30                                  
                                           
  FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
  KSC ... CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
  EDW ... CIG/PRECIP
  NOR ... NONE
  ZZA ... CIG/PRECIP
  MRN ... NONE
  FMI ... NONE

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #10 on: 12/09/2006 02:43 pm »
Rob

What is the WX trend in your view...i.e would it help, if launch is targeted for the start of the window or the latter half of the window?

Offline Jim

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #11 on: 12/09/2006 02:50 pm »
10 minute window isn't going to help either way, too short

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #12 on: 12/09/2006 02:56 pm »
Jim do you think that any new procedures would be put in place for today so wx calls would be more realtime... thinking of some of the notes on L2 for the last attempt? looks like another min may have allowed a launch Thursday.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #13 on: 12/09/2006 03:15 pm »
As we saw Thursday, the 'window' really doesn't help much with the amount of variability expected. When it comes to winds tonight, the later you go the lighter they'll become but again 10 minutes is in the microscale and not forecastable.

Offline Ender0319

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #14 on: 12/09/2006 03:17 pm »
I'm told that targeting for the start of the window results in more propellant to be burned as you'd need to burn more prop out-of-plane to put the vehicle into the more desired orbital plane (hence launching in the middle of the window into the desired orbit).

Quote
Avron - 9/12/2006  9:26 AM

Rob

What is the WX trend in your view...i.e would it help, if launch is targeted for the start of the window or the latter half of the window?

Offline Jim

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #15 on: 12/09/2006 03:18 pm »
Not really involved to know if they have.  The Range is a totally separate organization and is also Air Force.  It gives the Range weather officer gives wx calls based on requirements provided by Range Safety and user (STS).  There is a finite amount of time to make an assessment.

Offline astrobrian

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #16 on: 12/09/2006 03:32 pm »
Live shot CNN just now had the camera moving significantly due to wind, but not a cloud in the sky, at least I could not see any

Offline barassa

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #17 on: 12/09/2006 03:39 pm »
Astrobrian- I am currently at the Cape, and the skies are very clear.  It is windy though, and the clouds building over the Gulf (as seen on satellite images) don't look promising.  I'm packing my 5 kids into the van and heading for KSC momentarily.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #18 on: 12/09/2006 06:35 pm »
Winds at the landing facility are only 9kts right now, not sure why (but not complaining ;> ) WX is all GREEN currently here and at TAL.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #19 on: 12/09/2006 07:14 pm »
Slight improvement in the latest, they took out precip in the RTLS and PLS forecasts (never saw much reason to have that in there in the first place.) RTLS winds though still close tro out of limits for crosswind.

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
147 PM CST SATURDAY DECEMBER 09 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                DATE:      12/10/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT035 BKN060 BKN250           7              06012P18
      CHC BKN030

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT040                         7              33007P11
      CHC BKN040 SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SCT030                         7              03008P12
      PATCHY GROUND FOG

 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  SCT030 BKN130                  7              35007P10


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  SCT030 BKN050 BKN250           7              06012P18
      CHC BKN030

 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z
 EDW  SCT050 SCT200                  7              22010P18
      SLGT CHC BKN050

 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/XWIND
 NOR ... CIG
 EDW ... CIG
 ZZA ... CIG/PRECIP
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

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