With the change of the A5 order the graphic does not fit any longer. What about the 4 spares? Was the original order even bigger, 14+4=18 cores?Overall not bad. A6 might be not quite cheap enough but every A5 less saves the customers money.An interesting question might be if Ariane offered or Customers asked for the switch.
Quote from: Chasm on 01/10/2018 10:15 PMWith the change of the A5 order the graphic does not fit any longer. What about the 4 spares? Was the original order even bigger, 14+4=18 cores?Overall not bad. A6 might be not quite cheap enough but every A5 less saves the customers money.An interesting question might be if Ariane offered or Customers asked for the switch.The original transition phase had 33 total A5's, 11 total A6's, and 36 total Soyuz-ST/2.1's (all batch orders combined) and that does not to my undrstanding on A6 include commercial contracts.
AFAIK Arianespace backlog until 2020 is filled. If they reach the same amount of orders the next couple of years their backlog is filled until 2022. Let's try to do the numbers.Supply; Arianespace has:23x Ariane 5 on order; 1xES (gallileo), 12x A5-ECA PB+Batch and 10x A5-ECA PC-batch. 0x Ariane 6 (not available jet)Soyuz supply ??, most likely ordered on demand.11x Vega (5x batch1 [2013] & 6x batch2 [2017] & 4x Vega C [2017]Demand; Arianespace has a backlog of:18x A5: 15x Ariane 5 ECA dual GTO launch, 2x Ariane 5 ECA escape launch (BepiColombo & JWST) and 1x A5ES Gallileo.2x Ariane 6 Gallileo (+ 3x Ariane 6: Ariane 62 FM1, FM3 & A64 FM4)29x Soyuz; (21x Oneweb, 2xO3B, 3xEUMETSAT, CSG1+CHEOPS, 2x??)6x VEGA (ADM-Aeolus, Prisma, SEOSAT, ?MN35-B, ? 2x Falxon Eye (FETHR), L3/SSMS3x VEGA-C (CSG2 & 2x VHR-2020 [Airbus EO])(1x EURockot, Sentinal 3B)So Arianespace has left to sell: for the 2020-2022 period5x Ariane 5ECA ?x Ariane 6 5x Vega1x Vega-CInstitutional, non military, expected orders:Sentinel: 2C; 2D; 3C, ?3D (800km SSO <1200kg)EUMETSAT: 2x MTG (I1 & S1/Sentinel 4) [I2 in 2023] (all GTO)ESA Earth Explorers: 6) EarthCARE, 7) BioMass, 8 ) FLEX (all SSO)ESA Cosmic Vision: M2 EUCLID, L1 JUICEARTES Comsats: Eurostar NEO, Spacebus NEO, Electra (all GTO) & EDRS-DSpaceRider ?x (Vega-C, LEO)Proba 3, CERES 1-3, Taranis, MicroCarb, Merlin, M-AGRO, ?ESEO (<500kg SSO/LEO)I'm convinced Arianespace will be able to fill their order book, to match launcher supply. Most likely more Vega or soyuz launches are required.Edit to add:With now a total of 96 Ariane 5 launches, and a streek of 82 consecutive successes. And still 23 Ariane 5 launches left to go; Ariane 5 could reach a total of 119 launches and 105 consecutive successes.