Author Topic: ULA Vulcan Launch Vehicle (as announced/built) - General Discussion Thread 3  (Read 124339 times)

Offline AncientU

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ULA will use rideshare to make extra money from spare capacity. Depending on mission may add SRBs because of rideshare. In 2019 Astrobotics will fly as secondary on Atlas/Cynus mission, centuar does earth departure burn.

Giving rideshares to lunar robotic missions could be nice sideline. A more capable Centuar might even have endurance for TLI, giving nice boost to landed payload.

More capable US more options there are for using spare capacity.

Nice rationalization.
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Offline Sknowball

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Not really a surprise after the announced additional 6 months Centaur V adds to Vulcan development, but Tory Bruno did confirm that Vulcan Initial Launch Capability has slipped into 2020.

Quote
The current Vulcan ILC is mid 2020. It will fly with an American engine, replacing Atlasí RD180
https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/7pavyi/blue_origins_latest_footage_of_the_be4_engine/dsitdej/

He also provided a small update on the Vulcan CDR.

Quote
@wehavemeco: any update on Vulcanís CDR? Anxiously awaiting.
@torybruno: 2 parts. First part complete and successful
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/951271568218320896

Offline woods170

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Not really a surprise after the announced additional 6 months Centaur V adds to Vulcan development, but Tory Bruno did confirm that Vulcan Initial Launch Capability has slipped into 2020.

Quote
The current Vulcan ILC is mid 2020. It will fly with an American engine, replacing Atlasí RD180
https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/7pavyi/blue_origins_latest_footage_of_the_be4_engine/dsitdej/

He also provided a small update on the Vulcan CDR.

Quote
@wehavemeco: any update on Vulcanís CDR? Anxiously awaiting.
@torybruno: 2 parts. First part complete and successful
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/951271568218320896

People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.

Offline Jim

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People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.

Because there is enough ULA castigation on the rest of the forum

Offline woods170

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People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.

Because there is enough ULA castigation on the rest of the forum
Nice try Jim. That is castigation aimed at ULA mostly for not going for reusability whereas that other company is castigated over just about everything they do.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 11:13 AM by woods170 »

Offline envy887

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People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.
That's because we already knew about the delay.  Tory Bruno announced the trade - Centaur 5 for six months time - on twitter a month or two ago.

 - Ed Kyle

Was Vulcan late 2019? I don't recall seeing a date, just the year.

They started working with Blue on BE-4 in late 2014, and unveiled the vehicle design in early 2015. 5 years and some months seems pretty typical for a mostly new LV development program.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 03:16 PM by envy887 »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.
That's because we already knew about the delay.  Tory Bruno announced the trade - Centaur 5 for six months time - on twitter a month or two ago.

 - Ed Kyle

Was Vulcan late 2019? I don't recall seeing a date, just the year.

They started working with Blue on BE-4 in late 2014, and unveiled the vehicle design in early 2015. 5 years and some months seems pretty typical for a mostly new LV development program.
5+ years is the new typical development program period for a new commercial medium/heavy (20mt+) LV. SpaceX's is the one push this lower but not by much and as the vehicle SpaceX is design increases in complexity and size so do the development period. Vulcan/Centaur V is not that complex of a system. And in fact will probably have less complexity than the Atlas/Centaur. So a 5 year development is what one would expect. Also they should not have much schedule slippage for that same reason. They announce almost 2 years ago a 2019 first launch so a 6 month slip after 2 years of design work and some significant plan changes in the developemnt is quite good schedule management. ULA has always been excellent in their ability to manage their schedules and to predict highly accurate planning dates.

Offline clongton

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Was Vulcan late 2019? I don't recall seeing a date, just the year.

When Vulcan was first announced, ULA said first flight was NET 2019 - no quarter given.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 07:50 PM by clongton »
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ULA are at mercy of engine designers Blue  or AJR, which are totally out of ULA control.
They can't start bending metal on booster till engine us picked and its performance proven.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Quote
@torybruno are you afraid that the constant rate of success will be hauled with the introduction of a whole new rocket not entirely based in Lockheed/Boeing...
https://twitter.com/astro_zach/status/951995804297949186

Quote
Yes, but the rocket is only half of the equation
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/951998937975566336

Offline AncientU

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Don't think ULA plus AJR is competitive.  Neither has adjusted to the realities of today's and tomorrow's market

No, people are just over hyping the "realities of today's and tomorrow's market".  Most don't know what they are talking about and just repost the same unsupported biased opinions.

Stephane Isreal, for instance...
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31484.msg1771157#msg1771157
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline Jim

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Don't think ULA plus AJR is competitive.  Neither has adjusted to the realities of today's and tomorrow's market

No, people are just over hyping the "realities of today's and tomorrow's market".  Most don't know what they are talking about and just repost the same unsupported biased opinions.

Stephane Isreal, for instance...
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=31484.msg1771157#msg1771157

No, just you

Offline john smith 19

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It is different though. The potential engineering value of returning a booster for inspection is extremely high, since it can result in fixing a failure mode that saves a future billion dollar payload or prevent a stand-down and RTF costing hundreds of millions.

Excess margin is also valuable in case of an anomaly. A multi-engine upper stage would have engine-out redundancy and extra delta-v to insure against booster shortfalls like the DIVH first flight failure and OA-6 close call. Landing margins for a booster provide the same thing, but is also different because it can also enable reuse (the choice to reuse or not reuse isn't necessarily made before the flight).
True.

And yet, apart from earlier versions of Centaur, I know of no multi engine upper stage currently flying. :(

Needless to say that complicates any planning for recovery and reuse quite a bit, given the mass changes between fully loaded and nearly empty.
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline john smith 19

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Was Vulcan late 2019? I don't recall seeing a date, just the year.

When Vulcan was first announced, ULA said first flight was NET 2019 - no quarter given.
And they were right.  :(

Not Earlier Than 2019 is indeed 2020.

Admittedly there is more of a sense of urgency with ULA's financial position WRT the parents, but that seems quite a well scheduled programme.

IMHO The Joker in this pack is the funding,  and wheather the parents are still forcing them to do Q to Q requests. If they'd gone to a less piecemeal approach I imagine there would have some kind of formal announcement by now, as it would suggest a big increase in confidence of ULA's plans to execute.

Or there was and I missed it?
BFS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of flying in Earth and Mars atmospheres. BFR. The worlds biggest Methane fueled FFORSC engined CFRP structured booster for BFS. First flight to Mars by end of 2022. Forward looking statements. T&C apply. Believe no one. Run your own numbers. So, you are going to Mars to start a better life? Picture it in your mind. Now say what it is out loud.

Offline meekGee

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Not really a surprise after the announced additional 6 months Centaur V adds to Vulcan development, but Tory Bruno did confirm that Vulcan Initial Launch Capability has slipped into 2020.

Quote
The current Vulcan ILC is mid 2020. It will fly with an American engine, replacing Atlasí RD180
https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/7pavyi/blue_origins_latest_footage_of_the_be4_engine/dsitdej/

He also provided a small update on the Vulcan CDR.

Quote
@wehavemeco: any update on Vulcanís CDR? Anxiously awaiting.
@torybruno: 2 parts. First part complete and successful
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/951271568218320896

People constantly castigate "that other company from Hawthorne" for having delays. But here is ULA having a six-month delay and things are are (almost eery) quiet.
Just look at what the three "nextgen" programs bring to the table, and it's pretty obvious:

An EELV (with an uncertain path to partial reusability), a large "mostly reusable" rocket with some path to full reusability, and a fully reusable launch system + spaceship.

The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.
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Offline Jim

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The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.

They fly more interesting missions than GTO comsats or station resupply.   

Too many people are caught up in the means with the ends are more important.  I don't care how I get my packages.

Offline meekGee

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The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.

They fly more interesting missions than GTO comsats or station resupply.   

Too many people are caught up in the means with the ends are more important.  I don't care how I get my packages.
You're comparing today's EELV to F9.

I'm comparing Vulcan to NG to BFS, and the interest level they generate. 

BFS will fly some pretty interesting missions...
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Offline clongton

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The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.

There's no such thing as a less interesting EELV. Customers are interested in whatever launch vehicle best fits their need for a specific launch. They don't care how many engines it has, what color it's painted, who makes the vehicle or if it has 2 or 5 stages. They are only interested in an appropriate launch service and whatever EELV fits their needs becomes the choice.
« Last Edit: 01/13/2018 08:08 PM by clongton »
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline meekGee

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The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.

There's no such thing as a less interesting EELV. Customers are interested in whatever launch vehicle best fits their need for a specific launch. They don't care how many engines it has, what color it's painted, who makes the vehicle or if it has 2 or 5 stages. They are only interested in an appropriate launch service and whatever EELV fits their needs becomes the choice.
This exchange started when someone asked why delays in the Vulcan program generate less reaction from observers, compared with slips in other nextGen schedules.

I was simply comparing what those nextGen programs were, and showing a correlation.
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Offline AncientU

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The EELV is simply less interesting to most observers, and so 6 months here or there generate a lot less excitement.

They fly more interesting missions than GTO comsats or station resupply.   

Too many people are caught up in the means with the ends are more important.  I don't care how I get my packages.

When there are no winning arguments about the launch vehicle, the goal posts move to 'more interesting missions.'
Vulcan's competition will win on that field, too.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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