Mars will make it closest approach to Earth in 15 years, so there will be fake news circulating around Facebook about Mars being as big as a full moon, just like that email from 15 years ago.
NASA:SLS will continue being developed, and the first rocket is getting readyto be launched at early 2019....
More predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years
US, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon. No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out. 2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking. 2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)
Quote from: Eric Hedman on 12/19/2017 05:58 AMUS, ESA, JAXA & RUSSIA try to negotiate deal to work together to return to Moon. No deal finalized in 2018 as concepts not worked out. 2a - Trump tries to include China with Congress balking. 2b - Trump tries to include India, Israel and UAE as possible partners (not settled in 2018)I don't have any great psychic impressions of the year ahead, but I am seriously under the impression that, at least per some of the recent statements that have come out relative to this new space directive, the current management of the country has no interest whatsoever in working with any other nations in space. I get the feeling they would back out of the ISS agreements, if they could.I base this on the recent statements that the US "now feels" that space is not a common inheritance of mankind, and is fair game to be grabbed, used and (likely) militarized at America's whim. All in service of making America the permanent pre-eminent space power on the planet. The theme seems to be that partnerships are seen by America's current management as weakening America's leadership position in space, rather than strengthening mankind's toehold in the solar system, and that the former is all the matters.With public statements along those lines, I would think it would be highly, highly unlikely that, at least under its current management, America would seek -- or even allow -- any new international partnerships on space exploration. So, my only real prediction is that, instead of seeing the US seeking new partnerships, as Eric suggests, we will see a lot of rhetoric about America needing to go it alone -- especially in a return to the Moon -- to ensure no one takes our "lead" away from us.The associated prediction, of course, is that Congress will approve no new funding to achieve an "America-forever-first-in-space" goal -- whether they think that's the goal we should be pursuing, or not...
General question regarding prediction threads. I see a lot of posts where people make statements along the lines of "X number of flights or more". Is that an acceptable prediction? If so, what's the limit? Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable? My take is you need to predict a specific outcome with little to no plus or minus. But that's my take and how I try to approach it - just didn't know if there was a forum consensus. I believe I even saw Lar make predictions with that sort of nomenclature. I predict there will be zero or more responses to this post...
Is "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable?
I predict that 2018 will end on December 31st
2018 is the year NASA returns.To the public NASA went away with the crash of Columbia in 2003. A few more missions occurred and then the Space Shuttles stopped. As the readers of this website know since then NASA has been returning to manned flight by getting companies to develop new space vehicles.The business press has discovered that California is going into recession. When companies fire people and close down the ordinary press will report it. Bad news in an election year is disliked by politicians, so they will look for good news. In 2018 NASA may have lots of good news.In previous years COTS and Commercial Resupply Services have transported cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).In January/February the Falcon Heavy is due to have a test flight. This will be the biggest American rocket currently flying. (Saturn V has retired and SLS is still in development.)In the spring/summer Lunar CATALYST partner Moon Express hopes to land 30kg of payload on the Moon.Commercial Crew Program company SpaceX plans to send a Dragon 2.0 to the ISS in spring 2018. A Boeing CST-100 is due at the ISS in summer 2018. Later flights will carry people.In 2018 NASA's back. It will return to the International Space Station and is preparing to return to the Moon.
Quote from: Johnnyhinbos on 12/21/2017 06:30 PMIs "SpaceX will fly 1 or more times" acceptable? Totally. There will be no formal winner and you yourself will be the judge of how you did. My favorite was Lar's prediction that Blue Origin would do at least four New Shepard flights this year. They only did one so he considered the prediction 25% right
I'm just going to focus on the areas that I follow most closely, rather than sounding off on matters that I have no knowledge of 99 launches in total worldwide. 5 failures.SpaceX- FH flies in February, nominally successful mission but some anomalies lead to the next flight being 3elayed until towards the end of the year.- F9 remains the most flown vehicle in the world, with 23 flights. I think there's an even chance of a failure. Fewer landings than expected as backlog of old boosters is used up, but all landing attempts are successful. Most hot GTO missions are flown in expendable mode by older boosters.- they finally get some fairings back, and fly a reused one by the end of the year- Raptor makes progress but does not yet meet design goals for mass and isp - a boilerplate BFS grasshopper will be unveiled as the 'wow' moment of 2018, but will not yet fly-D2 flies unmanned; crewed flight pushed back to 2019SLS/Orion will continue, inexplicably, as the govt is too busy dealing with more pressing matters.JWST will slip into 2019
Quote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 AMMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide2) No manned launches from US soil3) Boeing beats SpaceX and launches Starliner first4) Falcon Heavy fails and all other SpaceX launches and planned landings are successful5) MLM is delayed further to 20206) No Russian launch failures7) A surprise Israeli orbital launch8 ) 3 moons found orbiting 2014 MU69 9) 1 Indian launch failure10) 10 successful Atlas launches11) Blue Origin offer to launch Europa Clipper free albeit later12) BepiColombo launch is delayed13) SETI finds nothing (I needed to be certain I'd get at least one right)
Although humor is not necessarily a bad thing, the idea of this thread is that predictions should be ones you sincerely believe have at least a chance of happening, and that have some rational basis.Purely silly predictions, or counterfactual ones, or ones that only a diehard conspiracy theorist would find plausible, are not really welcome in this thread. A prediction that involved, among other things, space microbes that cause global warming, was removed.If you have difficulty with that, use the Report to Mod and make the case that this action should be overturned.
I like all these predictions, but a question for the mods...Is there a cutoff date for this? [1] Or will this thread become like the hiring of the next NASA Administrator [2]...?[1] I have an idea, let’s create a prediction thread to predict when the prediction thread will be closed . [3][2] I.E., lasting well into 2018[3] Of course, then we’ll have to have a prediction thread that will predict when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread of when the prediction thread will close. [1][4][4] You’re welcome Lar, though of course the irony is that this footnote will never get hit, so you’ll (justly)[5] never get your thank you.[5] Justly because of all the infinite recursive loops you’ve created over time with no concern for the consequences...
One of my predictions already bit the dust. No LEGO shuttle, the Ideas Shuttle stack did not get approved.
Well, looks like those of you who said Google Lunar XPrize will be won were wrong, as were those of you who thought it would be delayed. The GLX is over.However, if you made a prediction as to how many will fly, like I did, there is hope yet!
Quote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 AMMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwide
Quote from: vapour_nudge on 12/17/2017 07:36 AMQuote from: Svetoslav on 12/05/2017 10:12 AMMore predictions please I am reading the thread actively and I'm a little disappointed it's less active than previous years 1) OK, me too. Exactly 100 successful orbital launches worldwideSo does the Ariane launch count as a success?? That old dilemma. Does the Zuma launch count as a success? We're either at 10, 11 or 12 successes - which is it?
10. Zuma is a failure (as far as we can tell). We can go in circles about whose failure it was, but it was a failure. The Ariane launch is a partial failure - separation was no where near the intended orbit.
Japanese who conducted a successful orbital flight