Quote from: Robotbeat on 01/09/2018 05:47 AMQuote from: Rabidpanda on 01/09/2018 05:28 AMQuote from: Dave G on 01/03/2018 02:50 AMQuote from: wannamoonbase on 01/02/2018 10:12 PMI don't think BFR as shown to us so far is a given. It will evolve and mature with time, it will be larger than FH and be a very impressive vehicle, but maybe not the monster we've seen.What you say doesn't seem to agree with Musk's statements at IAC 2017:Quote from: Elon MuskThe tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built. We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year...Note that the second quarter of 2018 is now just 13 weeks away. So if Musk's statement is true, the design for BFR is pretty much nailed down, and they're getting ready to manufacture it.Elon makes a lot of promises that don't always come true. Based on what was shown at IAC 2017 the design is no where near being finished and they are still refining the concept.'Tooling for the main tanks has been ordered' probably just means that they have ordered some AFP machines and/or layup tools that are relatively agnostic to the final design. 'We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year' probably means that they plan to start making manufacturing demonstrators on new tooling, maybe start manufacturing a suborbital test vehicle before the end of the year.I would bet that IAC 2018 will bring some significant changes to the overall vehicle /architecture and the amount of progress will be much less that people here seem to expect.That's a pretty wishy-washy bet, can you make it something objective so we can actually bet on it? Fair enough! I predict the following for IAC 2018:-Elon will show off pictures of a full scale production Raptor engine, but it will not have been test fired yet.-The OML of BFR+BFS will have significant (noticeable) changes from what was presented at IAC 2017.-Detailed plans for a suborbital test BFS will be discussed and the composite tank for it will be shown in some state of production.-Elon will give the system a cool name and get people hyped with another video.
Quote from: Rabidpanda on 01/09/2018 05:28 AMQuote from: Dave G on 01/03/2018 02:50 AMQuote from: wannamoonbase on 01/02/2018 10:12 PMI don't think BFR as shown to us so far is a given. It will evolve and mature with time, it will be larger than FH and be a very impressive vehicle, but maybe not the monster we've seen.What you say doesn't seem to agree with Musk's statements at IAC 2017:Quote from: Elon MuskThe tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built. We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year...Note that the second quarter of 2018 is now just 13 weeks away. So if Musk's statement is true, the design for BFR is pretty much nailed down, and they're getting ready to manufacture it.Elon makes a lot of promises that don't always come true. Based on what was shown at IAC 2017 the design is no where near being finished and they are still refining the concept.'Tooling for the main tanks has been ordered' probably just means that they have ordered some AFP machines and/or layup tools that are relatively agnostic to the final design. 'We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year' probably means that they plan to start making manufacturing demonstrators on new tooling, maybe start manufacturing a suborbital test vehicle before the end of the year.I would bet that IAC 2018 will bring some significant changes to the overall vehicle /architecture and the amount of progress will be much less that people here seem to expect.That's a pretty wishy-washy bet, can you make it something objective so we can actually bet on it?
Quote from: Dave G on 01/03/2018 02:50 AMQuote from: wannamoonbase on 01/02/2018 10:12 PMI don't think BFR as shown to us so far is a given. It will evolve and mature with time, it will be larger than FH and be a very impressive vehicle, but maybe not the monster we've seen.What you say doesn't seem to agree with Musk's statements at IAC 2017:Quote from: Elon MuskThe tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built. We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year...Note that the second quarter of 2018 is now just 13 weeks away. So if Musk's statement is true, the design for BFR is pretty much nailed down, and they're getting ready to manufacture it.Elon makes a lot of promises that don't always come true. Based on what was shown at IAC 2017 the design is no where near being finished and they are still refining the concept.'Tooling for the main tanks has been ordered' probably just means that they have ordered some AFP machines and/or layup tools that are relatively agnostic to the final design. 'We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year' probably means that they plan to start making manufacturing demonstrators on new tooling, maybe start manufacturing a suborbital test vehicle before the end of the year.I would bet that IAC 2018 will bring some significant changes to the overall vehicle /architecture and the amount of progress will be much less that people here seem to expect.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 01/02/2018 10:12 PMI don't think BFR as shown to us so far is a given. It will evolve and mature with time, it will be larger than FH and be a very impressive vehicle, but maybe not the monster we've seen.What you say doesn't seem to agree with Musk's statements at IAC 2017:Quote from: Elon MuskThe tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built. We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year...Note that the second quarter of 2018 is now just 13 weeks away. So if Musk's statement is true, the design for BFR is pretty much nailed down, and they're getting ready to manufacture it.
I don't think BFR as shown to us so far is a given. It will evolve and mature with time, it will be larger than FH and be a very impressive vehicle, but maybe not the monster we've seen.
The tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built. We will start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year...
I predict the following for IAC 2018:-Elon will show off pictures of a full scale production Raptor engine, but it will not have been test fired yet.
Q: The sub-scale Raptor prototype has a (speculated) thrust of about ~100 tons-force currently, and will be scaled up to ~170 tons-force according to your IAC/2017 design. Can you tell us more about the current status and expected (best-case) timeline of this scale-up effort?A: Thrust scaling is the easy part. Very simple to scale the dev Raptor to 170 tons. The flight engine design is much lighter and tighter, and is extremely focused on reliability. The objective is to meet or exceed passenger airline levels of safety...
-The OML of BFR+BFS will have significant (noticeable) changes from what was presented at IAC 2017.
The difficulty of deep throttling an engine increases in a non-linear way, so 2:1 is fairly easy, but a deep 5:1 is very hard. Granularity is also a big factor. If you just have two engines that do everything, the engine complexity is much higher and, if one fails, you've lost half your power. Btw, we modified the BFS design since IAC to add a third medium area ratio Raptor engine partly for that reason (lose only 1/3 thrust in engine out) and allow landings with higher payload mass for the Earth to Earth transport function.
-Detailed plans for a suborbital test BFS will be discussed and the composite tank for it will be shown in some state of production.
-Elon will give the system a cool name and get people hyped with another video.
Quote from: Rabidpanda on 01/09/2018 08:00 PMFair enough! I predict the following for IAC 2018:-Elon will show off pictures of a full scale production Raptor engine, but it will not have been test fired yet.-The OML of BFR+BFS will have significant (noticeable) changes from what was presented at IAC 2017.-Detailed plans for a suborbital test BFS will be discussed and the composite tank for it will be shown in some state of production.-Elon will give the system a cool name and get people hyped with another video.What's the bet? Is it all-or-nothing for the predictions above? For example, what if you're right on the first 3 items, but Elon keeps the BFR name? What if you're right on item 2, but wrong on all the others?Also, as I understand it, item 2 is already a given, since they added another landing engine on BFS since IAC.
Fair enough! I predict the following for IAC 2018:-Elon will show off pictures of a full scale production Raptor engine, but it will not have been test fired yet.-The OML of BFR+BFS will have significant (noticeable) changes from what was presented at IAC 2017.-Detailed plans for a suborbital test BFS will be discussed and the composite tank for it will be shown in some state of production.-Elon will give the system a cool name and get people hyped with another video.
Quote from: Dave G on 01/09/2018 08:37 PMQuote from: Rabidpanda on 01/09/2018 08:00 PMFair enough! I predict the following for IAC 2018:-Elon will show off pictures of a full scale production Raptor engine, but it will not have been test fired yet.-The OML of BFR+BFS will have significant (noticeable) changes from what was presented at IAC 2017.-Detailed plans for a suborbital test BFS will be discussed and the composite tank for it will be shown in some state of production.-Elon will give the system a cool name and get people hyped with another video.What's the bet? Is it all-or-nothing for the predictions above? For example, what if you're right on the first 3 items, but Elon keeps the BFR name? What if you're right on item 2, but wrong on all the others?Also, as I understand it, item 2 is already a given, since they added another landing engine on BFS since IAC.I don't think adding a 3rd landing engine will change the outer mold line.
Thank you Dave G for posting that video.
Speaking at the NewSpace Europe conference here Nov. 16, Gwynne Shotwell noted that SpaceX is already receiving funding from the U.S. Air Force supporting the development of Raptor, the engine that will power the vehicle known as BFR, or Big Falcon Rocket, and the reusable spacecraft known as BFS or Big Falcon Spaceship.“I do anticipate that there is residual capability of that system that the government will be interested in,” she said. “I do see that we would likely get some funding from the government for BFR and BFS.” She added, though, that work on the vehicles was not contingent on receiving government funding.One avenue for doing so would be through the U.S. Air Force’s Launch Services Agreement competition, which plans to provide several awards to companies to help fund development of prototype launch systems, though initial test flights, to end U.S. reliance on the Atlas 5 and its Russian-manufactured RD-180 engine. Proposals for the competition are due to the Air Force Nov. 20.Shotwell said after the talk that BFR could be used to launch some of the heaviest national security payloads envisioned by the Air Force in the 2020s. Most of those payloads, she said, can be served by the existing Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy, whose first launch is scheduled for late this year.
Not sure if this was posted already:SpaceX expects government support for development of BFR launch systemQuote from: Space News, November 16, 2017Speaking at the NewSpace Europe conference here Nov. 16, Gwynne Shotwell noted that SpaceX is already receiving funding from the U.S. Air Force supporting the development of Raptor, the engine that will power the vehicle known as BFR, or Big Falcon Rocket, and the reusable spacecraft known as BFS or Big Falcon Spaceship.“I do anticipate that there is residual capability of that system that the government will be interested in,” she said. “I do see that we would likely get some funding from the government for BFR and BFS.” She added, though, that work on the vehicles was not contingent on receiving government funding.One avenue for doing so would be through the U.S. Air Force’s Launch Services Agreement competition, which plans to provide several awards to companies to help fund development of prototype launch systems, though initial test flights, to end U.S. reliance on the Atlas 5 and its Russian-manufactured RD-180 engine. Proposals for the competition are due to the Air Force Nov. 20.Shotwell said after the talk that BFR could be used to launch some of the heaviest national security payloads envisioned by the Air Force in the 2020s. Most of those payloads, she said, can be served by the existing Falcon 9 and the Falcon Heavy, whose first launch is scheduled for late this year.
H. Study the potential for residual upper stage capability.1. Assess whether the planned upper stage for the EELV Launch System prototype willhave residual capability for any of the nine EELV reference orbits to make it capableof spacecraft servicing, orbital transfers, and other services that enhance nationalsecurity space resiliency2. Assess what types of enhancements would need to be added to the upper stage tomake it capable of spacecraft servicing, orbital transfers, and other services thatenhance national security space resiliency
Thus for the first 10 years of the program hardware could be:6 Boosters 6 Tankers10 Mars cargo ships6 Mars crew ships2 Moon ships3 Satellite delivery/recovery ships1 ISS support shipThat's 6 Boosters and 28 upper stages. A pretty small fleet considering the range of activities.
Quote from: Restless on 01/16/2018 09:44 PMThus for the first 10 years of the program hardware could be:6 Boosters 6 Tankers10 Mars cargo ships6 Mars crew ships2 Moon ships3 Satellite delivery/recovery ships1 ISS support shipThat's 6 Boosters and 28 upper stages. A pretty small fleet considering the range of activities.Yes, and that covers for all the possible things that may happen from 2022 to 2032, and that assumes many overlapping missions. For example, if they fly BFS to the moon and back as a test, they could reuse that same flight proven BFS to go to Mars.Also, looking at just the the first 4 years (2022-2026), they could probably get by with just 3 boosters and 8 ships. They may want more, but my point is that in a pinch, they could do a hell of a lot with relatively few boosters and spaceships.I think the true value of full reusability is starting to become apparent. It doesn't just save cost. It means you can do a lot of missions without needing to stockpile much hardware.