Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
1 (0.3%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (0.7%)
13
1 (0.3%)
14
0 (0%)
15
1 (0.3%)
16
0 (0%)
17
2 (0.7%)
18
2 (0.7%)
19
3 (1%)
20
15 (5%)
21
4 (1.3%)
22
12 (4%)
23
15 (5%)
24
39 (12.9%)
25
33 (10.9%)
26
22 (7.3%)
27
32 (10.6%)
28
28 (9.3%)
29
20 (6.6%)
30
34 (11.3%)
31
6 (2%)
32
14 (4.6%)
33
4 (1.3%)
34
1 (0.3%)
35
5 (1.7%)
36
2 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
1 (0.3%)
More than 40!!!
3 (1%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 302

Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 26905 times)

Offline zappatosin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #60 on: 12/26/2017 04:54 PM »
27

I agree with Chalz that CRS-16 will close out 2018, so I simply counted everything on Lar's manifest up thru CRS-16 and added a bonus payload to count instead of the in-flight abort. For 2017 I made the pessimistic prediction of 11 launches based on what I thought was realistic pad availability.

I'm a bit optimistic that a pair of the 24 fairings Shotwell needs to launch this manifest by "flight proven."
I also agree that the crew access arm will not be finished nor will humans launch in dragon in 2018.

Offline MrHollifield

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #61 on: 12/26/2017 05:29 PM »
I voted 28.

For 2017 I thought SpaceX would be able to maintain a pace of 4/quarter off the primary FL launch pad. They didn't and I turned out to be overly optimistic. I think they will be able to maintain that pace, overall, but a pause when switching over to Block 5 will keep the yearly LC-40 count around 16.

LC-39A is scheduled for 5 launches. After the FH test launch (next month!), they'll have to make another FH core (I don't think this Block 3 version will be able to do another flight) and decide if they can re-refly the side boosters or refit another pair. I expect they will want to refit a pair of Block 5 boosters for the next side boosters, and the aforementioned pause will cause the 3rd FH flight on the schedule to push to 2019, even though there should be minimal effort in refitting a Block 5 as a FH side booster. But, I'll stay optimistic and say both DM-1 and DM-2 will go in 2018.

LC-4E is scheduled for 9 launches. This pad isn't as hardened for fast turn as the FL pads, so I think they'll have trouble maintaining a cadence much better than every 45 days. With the first launch in late January, I expect they'll end up pushing #9 to 2019.

16+4+8=28.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #62 on: 12/30/2017 12:23 AM »
Threw all the numbers up in the air and 28 landed on the drone ship. Read the tea leaves, applied a oiji board and consulted the great tree to confirm my choice.
(Basically Too chicken to say 33 so I picked 28 randomly)
Colonize Mars!

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #63 on: 12/30/2017 12:47 AM »
Voted 25.

Assumption: no failures, of course. Last few payloads on manifest will slip to 2019.

In general 2018, if successful, may be last year with significant backlog.

I find amusing that lowest result (at this moment) is 10 (probably someone assuming failure in first half of year that will take many months to resolve). I still remember when SpaceX struggled to launch 8 times in year...
« Last Edit: 12/30/2017 12:47 AM by Mader Levap »
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #64 on: 01/01/2018 01:40 AM »
Almost everyone (>98%) expects SpaceX to have more launches than ULA in 2018. Salo's manifest currently has 12 Atlas 5 and Delta 2/4 flights scheduled for 2018.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #65 on: 01/01/2018 03:29 AM »
Voted 30.

Too many variables to properly justify the number, so I went with Shotwell's estimate combined with the increased number of pads, increasing reuse and a base number of 18 in 2017.

So 30 it is. 2.5 launches per month.

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #66 on: 01/01/2018 11:58 PM »
Voted 24, based on 22 F9 and 2 FH. Gut feeling, although the F9 count happens to be exactly double my (incorrect) prediction from last year.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Online hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #67 on: 01/02/2018 12:14 AM »
Voted 25. I suspect even if things go well, external factors will prevent them from sustaining over 2 flights a month for the full year, but the days of "half SpaceX stated target" seem to be over.

Interesting that the lowest vote so far is 10 (with a single vote), which is more than SpaceX flew in any prior year.
As always, a major failure could take out ~6 months of flights, which could reasonably put them in the 10-15 ballpark. IMO this is more likely than the >35 scenarios.

Offline deruch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #68 on: 01/03/2018 12:34 AM »
27 (25 F9+ 2 FH)
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #69 on: 01/10/2018 03:49 AM »
I'm going to wait until the 18th or 19th to vote because a F9 failure or major problem with FH static fire would effect my answer. :)

But I anticipate voting like 24 or something.
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Offline TripD

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #70 on: 01/12/2018 12:12 AM »
In all the past polls I chose too optimistically.  I expect that my choice of 24 could end up on the pessimistic side of the tracks this time around.  Given that as the flight count increases, the flexibility to deal with scrubs and priority changes will be tested.  My gut tells me that this year SpaceX will meet an impressive tempo despite snags and still more growing pains.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #71 on: 01/12/2018 01:50 AM »
I'm going to wait until the 18th or 19th to vote because a F9 failure or major problem with FH static fire would effect my answer. :)

But I anticipate voting like 24 or something.

I'm going to set the date to the 17th just to fox you :)  (kidding)
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Setys

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #72 on: 01/14/2018 02:31 PM »
26 (24 F9 + 2 FH). Payloads availability preventing more flights.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #73 on: 01/14/2018 04:47 PM »
So in the final days
- we may or may not have a FH launch to inform guesses...
- the final outcome of Zuma isn't known... (but SpaceX is apparently not standing down in any way)
- how fast Boca Chica comes on line *might* be a factor

my guesses are already in. If yours aren't .. .hahah have fun.

:)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #74 on: 01/15/2018 06:39 PM »
Looking at the maniufest:

9 more manifested for the first quarter for a total of 10 - Some (1-3) may move a month into the second quarter but not many.

9 more listed for second quarter - the first quarter may indicate the number that would occur this quarter but with FH hopefully successfully launched the second quarter rate may be greater than the first quarter. Also BLK5 should be fully utilized with a possibility of BLK5 reuses occurring in this quarter if they launched in the first quarter.

The next two quarters are a guess and is really not separable into quarters. The second half of 2018 shows 11 flights.

This is a total of 30. If the first quarter has a total of 6-7 and the next one continuing at 7-8 then the year will definitely have >20 launches because by the end of June there will be ~15 launches.

My pessimistic vote was 24. I will waite and see if I was too pessimistic. ;D

Offline Space Junkie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #75 on: 01/15/2018 09:11 PM »
My gut is telling me 24-26. (My gut was correct about 18 launches last year.)

I probably should pick 25. I hate odd numbers, though, so I'm going with an optimistic 26.

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #76 on: 01/17/2018 01:51 AM »
So in the final days
- we may or may not have a FH launch to inform guesses...
- the final outcome of Zuma isn't known... (but SpaceX is apparently not standing down in any way)
- how fast Boca Chica comes on line *might* be a factor

my guesses are already in. If yours aren't .. .hahah have fun.

:)

OK... 24 it is...  ;)

Offline spacenut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #77 on: 01/17/2018 02:12 AM »
I picked 26, 2 F9's per month plus 2 FH's.  I figured some delays due to weather or satellite no being ready. 

Offline Jet Black

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #78 on: 01/17/2018 10:10 AM »
I think you should make BFR/BFS launches count, even if suborbital, because, you know, I'm sure that Elon has an absurd level of optimism that they will launch a rocket this year that they haven't even finished designing yet.
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. -- Richard Feynman

Offline Bigfoot

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #79 on: 01/18/2018 09:37 PM »
Picked 27,
because the DM2 mission could be delayed, and only 2 FH flights seem likely, and removed 1 flight per lauch site  because of possible slips.

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