Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 212021 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #220 on: 01/08/2018 07:18 PM »
I'll make an Iridium 5 thread soon.  I would expect Iridium 5 NLT mid-March, certainly not in the next few weeks.  There are websites (and probably apps) that track the Iridium constellation.
« Last Edit: 01/08/2018 07:19 PM by gongora »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #221 on: 01/11/2018 02:06 PM »
Seems like confirmation of right-moves to SpaceX CC demo flights:

Quote
NASAís Commercial Crew Program Target Test Flight Dates

The next generation of American spacecraft and rockets that will launch astronauts to the International Space Station are nearing the final stages of development and evaluation. NASAís Commercial Crew Program will return human spaceflight launches to U.S. soil, providing reliable and cost-effective access to low-Earth orbit on systems that meet our safety and mission requirements. To meet NASAís requirements, the commercial providers must demonstrate that their systems are ready to begin regular flights to the space station. Two of those demonstrations are uncrewed flight tests, known as Orbital Flight Test for Boeing, and Demonstration Mission 1 for SpaceX. After the uncrewed flight tests, both companies will execute a flight test with crew prior to being certified by NASA for crew rotation missions. The following schedule reflects the most recent publicly releasable dates for both providers.

Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

Author Anna HeineyPosted on January 11, 2018

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/
« Last Edit: 01/11/2018 02:11 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #222 on: 01/11/2018 10:17 PM »
New date and time for PAZ

New date: February 10.  15:22 Spanish Time should be 14:22 UTC, 06:22 PST.

http://www.infodefensa.com/es/2018/01/11/noticia-satelite-lanzara-febrero.html
« Last Edit: 01/12/2018 12:55 AM by gongora »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #223 on: 01/17/2018 08:40 PM »
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #224 on: 01/17/2018 08:52 PM »
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.

Looking at the manifest, there's basically no chance of TESS, Bangabandhu-1, and CRS-14 all launching on the dates we currently have.  Expect further changes.

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #225 on: 01/18/2018 05:45 AM »
A bunch of news articles say that last week (Jan. 12) a government minister in Bangladesh gave a target of March 26-31 for the Bangabandhu-1 launch.

Looking at the manifest, there's basically no chance of TESS, Bangabandhu-1, and CRS-14 all launching on the dates we currently have.  Expect further changes.

CRS-14 has already moved to April.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #226 on: 01/19/2018 09:43 PM »
A license for launch comms was just granted, NET March 5. (Mission 1382)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

A license for East coast booster recovery was also granted today, oddly NET February 15. (Mission 1393)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

Doubt that's Hispasat, and 90% sure that GovSat-1 is Mission 1389 and PAZ is Mission 1400 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81531&RequestTimeout=1000). Still, 1389 has a license for booster recovery (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000), which doesn't fit with the that core being expended after its second flight.

Corrections/refutations/debates welcome!

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #227 on: 01/19/2018 09:47 PM »
A license for launch comms was just granted, NET March 5. (Mission 1382)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

A license for East coast booster recovery was also granted today, oddly NET February 15. (Mission 1393)
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000

Doubt that's Hispasat, and 90% sure that GovSat-1 is Mission 1389 and PAZ is Mission 1400 (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81531&RequestTimeout=1000). Still, 1389 has a license for booster recovery (https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=81937&RequestTimeout=1000), which doesn't fit with the that core being expended after its second flight.

Corrections/refutations/debates welcome!

1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?

Offline vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #228 on: 01/19/2018 11:36 PM »
1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?

heheh, same ;D I've begun to wonder if, realistically, there is any downside to simply filing for a very liberal number of launch/landing licenses, nearly irregardless of planned orbit or actual manifest pressures. It seems that they can be reasonably easily (at least more easily than a new license) swapped about, and the lead time to getting those grants is clearly a bit unwieldy at SpaceX's anticipated launch cadences, and also seems almost guaranteed that it is 100x better to have a license and not need it than the opposite.

So, probably pretty likely as you said that they are just hedging their bets in case manifest delays or shuffling are necessary. Anyways, I'd concur with your core assignments. My first bet for 1393 was Hispasat, as well, was just thrown off by the recovery license. Who knows :D

Offline deruch

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #229 on: 01/20/2018 03:47 AM »
1382 is CRS-14
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.
1389 should be GovSat-1
PAZ should be 1400

Maybe the booster recovery permits just won't be used?  Weren't sure yet what the plan would be so they just went ahead and filed the paperwork?

heheh, same ;D I've begun to wonder if, realistically, there is any downside to simply filing for a very liberal number of launch/landing licenses, nearly irregardless of planned orbit or actual manifest pressures. It seems that they can be reasonably easily (at least more easily than a new license) swapped about, and the lead time to getting those grants is clearly a bit unwieldy at SpaceX's anticipated launch cadences, and also seems almost guaranteed that it is 100x better to have a license and not need it than the opposite.

So, probably pretty likely as you said that they are just hedging their bets in case manifest delays or shuffling are necessary. Anyways, I'd concur with your core assignments. My first bet for 1393 was Hispasat, as well, was just thrown off by the recovery license. Who knows :D

That was why they switched to the "#### Mission" designator in the first place.  They had been filing with "F9-##" and it was confusing the FCC when SpaceX swapped mission order.  So, the current system uses a mission number that is specific to each payload and not dictated by position in the flight manifest.   
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #230 on: 01/22/2018 12:00 PM »
SpaceX: Iridium-5 to launch in March; government shutdown creates manifest uncertainty -
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/01/spacex-iridium-5-launch-shutdown-manifest-uncertainty/

- by Chris Gebhardt:

Iridium element was embargoed until the top of the hour (as in now).
« Last Edit: 01/22/2018 12:00 PM by Chris Bergin »

Offline vaporcobra

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Offline OccasionalTraveller

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #232 on: 01/25/2018 03:01 PM »
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.

We don't yet know whether Hispasat is using a new or reused core, but we do know that the first Block 5 has been built and - according to one rumour - is already at 39A's HIF. It could be a recovery if this is the first Block 5, and it jumps the queue.

There are two more Block 4s left, and I've seen reports that NASA don't want TESS to be on the first Block 5. If Hispasat and TESS used the last two Block 4s, the Block 5 would be used for Bangabandhu-1. That's only 3500 kg. It seems a bit of a waste to expend a Block 4 which might have a chance of a reuse. (Thaicom 8 was 3100kg to GTO, and that booster, B1023, is now one of the side cores for FH Demo.)

Sent from my Swift 2 Plus using Tapatalk


Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #233 on: 01/25/2018 04:07 PM »
1393 would fit the dates for Hispasat.  Why does that have booster recovery permits?  Hell if I know.

We don't yet know whether Hispasat is using a new or reused core, but we do know that the first Block 5 has been built and - according to one rumour - is already at 39A's HIF. It could be a recovery if this is the first Block 5, and it jumps the queue.

There are two more Block 4s left, and I've seen reports that NASA don't want TESS to be on the first Block 5. If Hispasat and TESS used the last two Block 4s, the Block 5 would be used for Bangabandhu-1. That's only 3500 kg. It seems a bit of a waste to expend a Block 4 which might have a chance of a reuse. (Thaicom 8 was 3100kg to GTO, and that booster, B1023, is now one of the side cores for FH Demo.)

This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #234 on: 01/25/2018 10:01 PM »
This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.

It will be expended.

Quote
Next Falcon 9 launch is set to be expendable. Drone ship's next job will be to catch the center core of the Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/956612001287065601
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #235 on: 01/25/2018 10:03 PM »
This is not the thread for random rumors.  Everything I've seen points to Hispasat being on a Block 4.  There is no indication a Block 5 would be ready for that flight.  Even if there were, it's probably still expendable at that payload mass.

It will be expended.

Quote
Next Falcon 9 launch is set to be expendable. Drone ship's next job will be to catch the center core of the Falcon Heavy.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/956612001287065601

That's for GovSat-1.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #236 on: 01/26/2018 08:44 PM »
Falcon Heavy demo:

Launch date, per the current plan:

NET Feb 6th with backup on the 7th.

Launch window each day is 13:30-16:30 EST.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2018 08:45 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #237 on: 01/27/2018 02:45 PM »
Apologies if this has been discussed previously. I just popped in to see the expected launches for the next month or so, and noticed the currently projected gap after the third February launch and before the first March launch.

Is there really expected to be in excess of a 1 month gap between Hispasat on 15 Feb, and the next launch, which appears to be Iridium on 18 March?

Or are there potential launches that can be shifted into that slot should all go according to plan?

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #238 on: 01/27/2018 03:08 PM »
Apologies if this has been discussed previously. I just popped in to see the expected launches for the next month or so, and noticed the currently projected gap after the third February launch and before the first March launch.

Is there really expected to be in excess of a 1 month gap between Hispasat on 15 Feb, and the next launch, which appears to be Iridium on 18 March?

Or are there potential launches that can be shifted into that slot should all go according to plan?

Keep in mind there are 4 flights in about two weeks scheduled right before that gap and 5 flights in the month after it.  The dates could change to spread out a little more, or not.  Not even counting SES-12, which is unknown right now, it looks like 10 flights through mid-April.  That's slightly ahead of the pace they would need to meet their launch goals this year.

Offline drnscr

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #239 on: 02/01/2018 12:13 AM »
Iím really sorry to be stupid but... If Hispasat is going to launch on 15 Feb, does anyone have an estimate of launch time.  Since Iím headed to Daytona for speed week, Iíd love to get to see the launch instead of going to Thursday nightís races.

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