Author Topic: Exporting goods from Mars  (Read 32151 times)

Offline Nilof

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Exporting goods from Mars
« on: 10/26/2014 10:52 am »
Since the subject got several pages of discussion on this thread, I thought I'd create a new thread to continue the discussion without going off topic on the original thread.

The gist of it as QuantumG observed is, in a scenario where you have MCT's providing half a million dollar tickets to Mars for colonists, there may very well be a business case for exporting stuff.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 10:55 am by Nilof »
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #1 on: 10/26/2014 10:57 am »
Thanks for starting a splinter thread. To me, it's simply a case of crunching the numbers to find out exactly how much goods would have to be worth in terrestrial markets to justify dedicated Earth-return vehicles, because if you're not talking about dedicated Earth-return vehicles, then that value is so close to zero that it doesn't really matter what those goods are (i.e., ebay sales would be fulfillable from Mars if the return trip was essentially free). Something like pure gold or platinum would be obvious winners but some high value manufactured goods or scientific goods would be also.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline sittingduck

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #2 on: 10/26/2014 11:12 am »
Carrying over this quote from the parent thread:

I mean, if you, a guy (presumably) sitting (presumably) quietly (presumably) in the comfort of your own home (presumably) can't understand what he's saying after I carefully laid it out in text for you, what hope do a bunch of people sitting in a crowded audience have?

This is an unnecessarily snarky reply and I am surprised at your uncharacteristic naïvety.  There is no justifiable reason to lose revenue in making the return trip free of charge despite (assumption on your part) excess capacity.  SMS' are not free despite being overhead.  The return ticket cost will still trump the economic benefit of regular commerce.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 03:00 pm by sittingduck »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #3 on: 10/26/2014 11:24 am »
Carrying over this quote from the parent thread:

I mean, if you, a guy (presumably) sitting (presumably) quietly (presumably) in the comfort of your own home (presumably) can't understand what he's saying after I carefully laid it out in text for you, what hope do a bunch of people sitting in a crowded audience have?

This is an unnecessarily snarky reply and I am surprised at your uncharacteristic naïvety.  There is no reason to lose revenue in making the return trip free of charge despite (assumption on your part) excess capacity.

Tell it to Elon.. and I wasn't being snarky.

Quote from: Elon Musk
They can come back if they like, if they don't like it, of course. You get a free return ticket. There's sometimes a debate about going to Mars one-way and whether that makes things easier, and I think for the initial flights perhaps, but long term, to get the cost down, you need the spacecraft back. Whether the people come back is irrelevant, but you must have the ship back because those things are expensive. So anyone who wants to return can just jump on. - source

While you and I may see how silly it is to talk about the return trip being "free", Elon doesn't. We can't just ignore what he's said because we think it's silly, if we did we'd ignore so much more than this.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Online MP99

Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #4 on: 10/26/2014 11:31 am »
I'm not convinced that the cost of producing extra prop to ferry back extra mass is necessarily "too cheap to meter" (nuclear electricity was going to be essentially free, back in the fifties, thus this slogan).

Cheers, Martin

Offline sittingduck

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #5 on: 10/26/2014 11:35 am »
Ok, I see where you are getting this from.

While you and I may see how silly it is to talk about the return trip being "free", Elon doesn't. We can't just ignore what he's said because we think it's silly, if we did we'd ignore so much more than this.

The statement you quoted was within the context of Elon's "long term" which could mean anything out to 500 years from now as far as I'm concerned, where we can no longer make any safe assumptions regarding the state of technology.

However in the short-term - which I take to be our lifetimes - I may be a cynic but when Elon mentions "free ticket" I'm thinking "free" in the context of superchargers being "free" - the car is still a requirement.  You may be able to waltz onto the return-flight free of charge but who will pay for the production of the consumables you require, the logistics to have them properly packed and transported to the craft and stored, the additional propellant that will need to be created to lift you and your mass of consumables, who will pay for the energy required to run the reactions to generate that propellant (and all of these goods/processes in immeasurably high demand at the colony)?  You will.  There will be very little actually free about it.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 11:50 am by sittingduck »

Offline Nilof

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #6 on: 10/26/2014 11:40 am »
One thing we know exists on Mars that can be very valuable on Earth is Opal. The MRO detected some on Mars last year: http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/bill-dunford/20131014-the-gems-of-mars.html

Opals were an important trade good during the early years of the colonization of Australia. Fine opals can sell for more than $1000 per gram. A Kg of fine opals could easily pay for a colonist ticket if sold at the price of Opals mined on Earth, so they easily qualify among things that are valuable enough to ship back.

Since there is a large variation between Opals mined in different places, it may be quite straightforward to determine whether an Opal was found on Mars, which may further increase prices. The patterns inside Opals that formed in the low-pressure environment on Mars may be quite unique.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 01:57 pm by Nilof »
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

Offline gbaikie

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #7 on: 10/26/2014 11:50 am »
Since the subject got several pages of discussion on this thread, I thought I'd create a new thread to continue the discussion without going off topic on the original thread.

The gist of it as QuantumG observed is, in a scenario where you have MCT's providing half a million dollar tickets to Mars for colonists, there may very well be a business case for exporting stuff.

When consider that each passenger needs about 10 tons of largely consumable [though recyclable- which most would regard as garbage and sewer water] stuff. A ton of stuff from Mars orbit should be fairly cheap- though don't need to send back this garbage/sewer stuff.
But has anyone yet mentioned to cost of rocket fuel on Mars surface and Mars orbit- because you need tons of that to bring back a ton of anything [including a 1/10th of person].
If rocket fuel on Mars surface is cheap, than a ton of Mars sand could be valuable. If Mars rocket fuel is costly, and Mars orbit is cheaper [if water is commercially mined the Moon, it could be] one might want ton of sand from one of the Mars moons.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #8 on: 10/26/2014 12:05 pm »
Would it be wise for a colony to expend extra propellant(water derived which is a finite resource that escapes like Helium does on Earth) shipping trinkets to Earth? Further more, if the colony is dependant on recieving goods from Earth in return, what happens when it grows to a large size and the gold rush stops? I can see the Mars authorities taking California water police to the next couple levels. I think intellectual property might be the only required trade between the two planets. Earth technology would be highly valuable on Mars and Mars could invent things of its own to pay for its small scale license manufacturing on Mars. Of course, Mars goods would cost more because of less mass production and environmental reasons and so the standard of living might be lower.

Of course, this may be the rational approach and Mars politicians will just see the short term dollar signs and do it anyway.

Offline gbaikie

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #9 on: 10/26/2014 12:28 pm »
Would it be wise for a colony to expend extra propellant(water derived which is a finite resource that escapes like Helium does on Earth) shipping trinkets to Earth? Further more, if the colony is dependant on recieving goods from Earth in return, what happens when it grows to a large size and the gold rush stops? I can see the Mars authorities taking California water police to the next couple levels. I think intellectual property might be the only required trade between the two planets. Earth technology would be highly valuable on Mars and Mars could invent things of its own to pay for its small scale license manufacturing on Mars. Of course, Mars goods would cost more because of less mass production and environmental reasons and so the standard of living might be lower.

Of course, this may be the rational approach and Mars politicians will just see the short term dollar signs and do it anyway.

There is no shortages of resources anywhere. But Mars politicians could certainly make Mars a wasteland.
For one thing there could be more fresh water on Mars than there is fresh water on Earth. 10 times more.
But Mars has not been adequately explored to determine this.
On earth most fresh water is in glaciers- if you exclude that fresh water [which no one is using, has used, or may not within a century] that it becomes even more likely there is more fresh water on mars. But then again, other than Mars polar caps, we don't actually know how much of Mars water is fresh.
Now if have settlements on Mars [more than 100] then it's likely that things like asteroids are mined, and one can get more water mining asteroids than in the salty seas of Earth.
There is no storage of water in space- where do imagine the water on Earth came from?
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 12:32 pm by gbaikie »

Offline mike robel

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #10 on: 10/26/2014 12:59 pm »
An issue with finding gold, silver, opal, diamonds, etc on Mars in quantity (or a new source on earth that is cheap to exploit) is it will mostly likely not increase prices, but decrease them, and if there is a lot of the resource available, then the price of export will probably not justify the cost of other resources to get them to market.

From the ancient world and up pretty much to modern time (pre WW-II) the purpose of colonies was to provide resources to and exports from the home country.  And of course, there was little need for life support the way there to, on, and from Mars to Earth.

For such a thing to be profitable, supplies on Mars would likely have to be huge, labor cheap, transportation cheap, and ideally find a resource not available on Earth.

Mars, at least initially, would consume all it resources in an attempt to become self-sufficient and its market for export would not likely be Earth, but perhaps for supporting operations in the Asteroid Belt.

On the other hand, Earth could, like Britain and France, export criminals and other "undesirables to its colonies as these and other countries sent them to places like Austrailia and parts of South America.  Even America was used as a dumping ground.

Tourism is impractical for the next 20 or 30 years, even assuming we get there, since Mars is always 30 years in the future.  Initially, we can expect not much more than small research outposts, struggling to survive on Mars.  Look at Antarctica, nothing but knowledge seems to come from the continent, although the waters around it are profitable.

Offline thydusk666

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #11 on: 10/26/2014 01:19 pm »
Boulders. Bring back Mars boulders.

Some wealthy people would probably love to have a piece of Mars on display close to an expensive painting.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #12 on: 10/26/2014 01:56 pm »
Would it be wise for a colony to expend extra propellant(water derived which is a finite resource that escapes like Helium does on Earth) shipping trinkets to Earth? Further more, if the colony is dependant on recieving goods from Earth in return, what happens when it grows to a large size and the gold rush stops? I can see the Mars authorities taking California water police to the next couple levels. I think intellectual property might be the only required trade between the two planets. Earth technology would be highly valuable on Mars and Mars could invent things of its own to pay for its small scale license manufacturing on Mars. Of course, Mars goods would cost more because of less mass production and environmental reasons and so the standard of living might be lower.

Of course, this may be the rational approach and Mars politicians will just see the short term dollar signs and do it a

There is no shortages of resources anywhere. But Mars politicians could certainly make Mars a wasteland.
For one thing there could be more fresh water on Mars than there is fresh water on Earth. 10 times more.
But Mars has not been adequately explored to determine this.
On earth most fresh water is in glaciers- if you exclude that fresh water [which no one is using, has used, or may not within a century] that it becomes even more likely there is more fresh water on mars. But then again, other than Mars polar caps, we don't actually know how much of Mars water is fresh.
Now if have settlements on Mars [more than 100] then it's likely that things like asteroids are mined, and one can get more water mining asteroids than in the salty seas of Earth.
There is no storage of water in space- where do imagine the water on Earth came from?

In the case of asteroid mining you are expending propellant(water) to get water and so let's hope you reach break even. At 400 isp, just to reach mars orbit, you will need 4100 km/s and so a craft could have a payload of 30%, a dry weight of 5% and would use 75% of its mass in propellant. Let's say that half of the propellant by weight is water derived which means you need to return 1 kg of water for every 1 kg of in orbit mass. It may only work in very rare circumstances like mining Siding Spring(too late now) and having the return vehicles do a small delta v manuever to intersect mars. Earthlings are very rich and the average person can not afford asteroid mined water. Unless Mars is populated by billionaires, they won't either. The transport cost to Mars took their life savings. The won't be able to afford tanks of water making a similar trip on a regular basis. The gravity well is one of the reasons why I think Dwarf planets or moons make better candidates for colonization than planets. You have more resources than an asteroid or comet but you can get off the surface much easier.

Offline Nilof

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #13 on: 10/26/2014 02:30 pm »
The gravity well is one of the reasons why I think Dwarf planets or moons make better candidates for colonization than planets. You have more resources than an asteroid or comet but you can get off the surface much easier.

Well, exporting stuff from the Moon is certainly much easier. The trip time is a lot shorter and the gravity well is much more shallow. If you have a mass driver, the energy needed to send something to escape velocity from the moon is only ~2.9 MJ/kg or 0.8 kWh/kg.

You can compare this with say the amount of energy needed to make aluminium from Bauxite, which is ~50 MJ/kg. The marginal cost of exporting even bulk materials from the moon becomes VERY low once your lunar base grows past a certain threshold.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 02:31 pm by Nilof »
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #14 on: 10/26/2014 02:35 pm »
The gravity well is one of the reasons why I think Dwarf planets or moons make better candidates for colonization than planets. You have more resources than an asteroid or comet but you can get off the surface much easier.

Well, exporting stuff from the Moon is certainly much easier. The trip time is a lot shorter and the gravity well is much more shallow. If you have a mass driver, the energy needed to send something to escape velocity from the moon is only ~2.9 MJ/kg or 0.8 kWh/kg.

You can compare this with say the amount of energy needed to make aluminium from Bauxite, which is ~50 MJ/kg. The marginal cost of exporting even bulk materials from the moon becomes VERY low once your lunar base grows past a certain threshold.

I personally like Ceres. I think Ceresian exporters will out compete both Mars exporters and Lunar exporters because of cheap abundant water derived fuel and a shallow gravity well.

Offline high road

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #15 on: 10/26/2014 03:36 pm »
So the only answer to the OPis opal and boulders? How about diamonds, and any other gemstone? Ignoring the uncertainty that Martian geological processes have even made/concentrated these enough, which we don't know for sure yet.

Gemstones (and boulders) would be sold as Martian gems (and boulders). They would be rare, so people would be willing to pay more for them than their terrestrial counterparts. Or even better, a pretty mineral that we don't have here.

Offline Mongo62

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #16 on: 10/26/2014 04:00 pm »
What about artworks? Given how much some collectors are willing to pay for paintings by certain artists, there might be a substantial market for paintings done from "life" on Mars, especially if they are by already established painters.

Maybe have auctions while the artworks are still on Mars, with a minimum bid for each piece high enough to cover the estimated cost of shipping it back to Earth. The pieces that meet or exceed that minimum bid price are packaged and sent to Earth on the next available flight.

The pigments themselves could even be manufactured on Mars. Plenty of ochres and browns to capture the Martian landscape could be extracted from local regolith.

How much do you think a private collector -- or museum -- would pay to have a large, dramatic painting of a sunset seen from the rim of Valles Marineris, painted on location and shipped back to Earth?
« Last Edit: 10/26/2014 04:01 pm by Mongo62 »

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #17 on: 10/26/2014 04:30 pm »
There will be nothing worth exporting from Mars any time soon (where "any time soon" means few hundred years). Get over it.

If we are going to create Mars colony, this will be done for different reasons than profit from trade.
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Offline Mongo62

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #18 on: 10/26/2014 04:43 pm »
Thank you for your personal opinion. However, it is irrelevant to the purpose of this thread, which starts by assuming that reasonably-priced transport from Mars to Earth IS possible..

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Exporting goods from Mars
« Reply #19 on: 10/26/2014 06:42 pm »
Information and services can be exported at the speed of light.
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