It's just occurred to me that this asteroid retrieval mission seems like a great candidate for a payment-on-delivery contracting model.
...some of the funding would probably need to be COTS/CCdev style milestone payments with perhaps half the funding payable upon delivery. Putting the money for the prize in a trust fund that's built up over the years before delivery may build confidence that Congress would actually deliver the prize ...
The asteroid bag itself is pretty new...
... but I don't see any reason to doubt it being doable.
1. First, I didn't say it would never work; I said that the bag was at TRL1. Do you have any links that would establish a higher TRL level for the asteroid bag concept?[...]Third, please tell me the source of your apparent acceptance of the claim that the asteroid bag scheme is accurately characterized by Ms. Garver as "existing capability"?
Second, the NASA video, which is the only "source" out there today, shows the bag approaching a non-tumbling asteroid.
You cannot have an implication that this effort is a done deal.
The $2.6B number is dependent on billions of dollars of additional funding for what are euphemistically called "existing capabilities".
My misunderstanding is I assumed you brought up asteroid bag TRL because you think it's relevant to our policy discussions ...
I think the Kreck study is a much better source for details like this than that video is.
I agree that funding is a serious risk, especially if NASA tries developing new thrusters and solar panels instead of using a cluster of existing ones.
NASA leaders must temper the Agency’s culture of optimism by demanding realistic cost and schedule estimates, well-defined and stable requirements, and mature technologies early in development.
TRL 1 means that the underlying physical phenomena have been observed; all of the technology needed for the asteroid heist is well beyond stage.
Capture Mechanism DevelopmentThe capture mechanism must be able to accommodate a massive, irregularly shaped object with significant uncertainty in the physical dimensions and mass prior to launch. An over-sized inflatable structure lined with high-strength bags is the current concept for this mechanism. Development of a prototype capture mechanism based on this approach would significantly reduce risk for a future asteroid capture and return mission.