Author Topic: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries  (Read 39598 times)

Offline joboggi

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #60 on: 06/15/2010 07:57 am »
Good luck if you can get an Atlas V for $150 million.

It is clear to me that Elon lowered costs by engineering people out of the system. He seems to make many of the decisions. The Falcon Heavy I am sure will be priced to be best in class, and MUCH lower than a Delta IV and Atlas V and what not.

Also, Elon notes that he has been making money for a couple of years now. That is NOT common in the rocket industry. I expect that to continue.

In general, until space tourism comes on line, the market for launches of all types is stable. There is very little need for another rocket company, of any sort. This FACT will mean that Spacex will hurt ALL other commercial space efforts, until another low cost carrier comes online.

« Last Edit: 06/15/2010 08:03 am by joboggi »

Offline simonth

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #61 on: 06/15/2010 09:44 am »
I wonder if SpaceX announced a lower price per seat than Russia, could Russia lower prices substantially? How far above cost do you think their prices are Jim?

F9/Dragon would not be priced lower but higher than current Soyuz seats to the ISS EXCEPT if you exclude all the training and facility use in Russia and INCLUDE any potential gain from flying more than the required 3 ISS crew members for rotation to the ISS while again EXCLUDING the potential need and costs of a separate lifeboat for the USOS (Orion CRV etc.).

A Soyuz seat is at 54 million in 2014.
A Dragon seat (at a crew of 3 because you only need 3 for crew rotation) will be about 200 million/3 = 66 million.

Of course that really doesn't matter. Economically, the worst thing Congress can do with money that is used for HSF is to pay the Russians. That has 0 benefits for the US economy. That means even if prices per seat were 10 times as much as Soyuz prices, Congress would still mandate to use US launch capabilities.

Offline Jim

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #62 on: 06/15/2010 10:53 am »
Good luck if you can get an Atlas V for $150 million.


I just showed that you can and even cheaper.

Offline Jim

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #63 on: 06/15/2010 10:54 am »

Also, Elon notes that he has been making money for a couple of years now. That is NOT common in the rocket industry. I expect that to continue.


No, he said they were cash positive.

Offline Jorge

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #64 on: 06/15/2010 01:43 pm »

Of course that really doesn't matter. Economically, the worst thing Congress can do with money that is used for HSF is to pay the Russians. That has 0 benefits for the US economy. That means even if prices per seat were 10 times as much as Soyuz prices, Congress would still mandate to use US launch capabilities.

There is also the matter of the INKSNA. Congress must pass a waiver to it periodically to allow NASA to buy Russian hardware. Congress would very much like to stop doing that.

Finally there is the matter of the Commercial Space Act, which requires NASA to use US Commercial Providers when available.

Bottom line is that it doesn't matter whether SpaceX (or any of the other Commercial Crew providers) can price-match Soyuz. Once they are up and running NASA will buy them.
JRF

Offline yg1968

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #65 on: 06/15/2010 02:28 pm »

Also, Elon notes that he has been making money for a couple of years now. That is NOT common in the rocket industry. I expect that to continue.


No, he said they were cash positive.

Actually, Elon also recently said that SpaceX was profitable:

http://www.pehub.com/73752/elon-musk-weighs-in-on-wsj-piece-and-future-of-spacex/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+pehub%2Fblog+%28PE+HUB+Blog%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

Quote
SpaceX has over $2.5B in revenue under contract.  Accounting rules require that revenue for long term contracts (over 2 years) be recognized as costs are incurred or milestones passed.  For the past three years, revenue has exceeded cost on that basis and we expect that to continue into the future.

The reason for SpaceX raising money last year from outside investors was for working capital and to provide a financial cushion in the event of a Falcon 9 launch failure.  We don’t anticipate needing to bring on additional investors and will not be conducting any equity financing rounds, although it is possible we may accept investment for strategic reasons.
« Last Edit: 06/15/2010 02:33 pm by yg1968 »

Offline simonth

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #66 on: 06/15/2010 02:37 pm »

Also, Elon notes that he has been making money for a couple of years now. That is NOT common in the rocket industry. I expect that to continue.


No, he said they were cash positive.

Actually, Elon also recently said that SpaceX was profitable:

http://www.pehub.com/73752/elon-musk-weighs-in-on-wsj-piece-and-future-of-spacex/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+pehub%2Fblog+%28PE+HUB+Blog%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

Quote
SpaceX has over $2.5B in revenue under contract.  Accounting rules require that revenue for long term contracts (over 2 years) be recognized as costs are incurred or milestones passed.  For the past three years, revenue has exceeded cost on that basis and we expect that to continue into the future.

The reason for SpaceX raising money last year from outside investors was for working capital and to provide a financial cushion in the event of a Falcon 9 launch failure.  We don’t anticipate needing to bring on additional investors and will not be conducting any equity financing rounds, although it is possible we may accept investment for strategic reasons.


SpaceX doesn't make operational profits. Accounting rules skew results in this case. SpaceX has large operating losses and had them for 8 years now. They will probably not even have positive income from operations (on a controlling numbers basis) until 2012 (if they don't have launch failures or incur large delays).

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #67 on: 06/15/2010 03:01 pm »
Quote
The 9-engines on a rocket are a liability to the Falcon 9, not an asset.

That doesn't sound right to me.  Maybe there was an earlier five engine scheme, but to suggest that it was "certainly not a design decision people would make when talking about a clean sheet rocket" certainly doesn't make sense.  I'm pretty sure that they designed a rocket system.  Your statement, "SpaceX had to make the decision based on the engine they had developed" sounds like you think that they built the rocket around the engine.  That would not have been good practice.

Quote
Interestingly, since you were involved in the awarding of the SpaceX contract, are you suggesting that NASA is planning not to pay SpaceX for their services and that ULA and OSC rockets are performing resupply missions ahead of SpaceX???

How in the heck did you get from his "involvement" to conclude his "suggestion"?  Must be great koolaid!  I gotcher back, Jim.

Not to be negative, but this is not certain as of right now. We have seen too many companies in the launch business come and go over the years, SpaceX remains in a risky industry that can turn its back on them and force them into bankruptcy.

If anything, let's just look at SeaLaunch...

True, sorta, but hopefully SeaLaunch will get out of bankruptcy?

Quote
No, he said they were cash positive.
Quote

No, he did say that they were "profitable".  <ii>There's that link!  Quit nitpicking.

Also, did everyone notice SpaceX's latest presser?  Launching for Taiwan?  Which is a [cough]province[cough] of China?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #68 on: 06/15/2010 03:15 pm »

Also, Elon notes that he has been making money for a couple of years now. That is NOT common in the rocket industry. I expect that to continue.


No, he said they were cash positive.

Actually, Elon also recently said that SpaceX was profitable:

http://www.pehub.com/73752/elon-musk-weighs-in-on-wsj-piece-and-future-of-spacex/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+pehub%2Fblog+%28PE+HUB+Blog%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

Quote
SpaceX has over $2.5B in revenue under contract.  Accounting rules require that revenue for long term contracts (over 2 years) be recognized as costs are incurred or milestones passed.  For the past three years, revenue has exceeded cost on that basis and we expect that to continue into the future.

The reason for SpaceX raising money last year from outside investors was for working capital and to provide a financial cushion in the event of a Falcon 9 launch failure.  We don’t anticipate needing to bring on additional investors and will not be conducting any equity financing rounds, although it is possible we may accept investment for strategic reasons.


SpaceX doesn't make operational profits. Accounting rules skew results in this case. SpaceX has large operating losses and had them for 8 years now. They will probably not even have positive income from operations (on a controlling numbers basis) until 2012 (if they don't have launch failures or incur large delays).

What makes you say that?

The COTS Milestones ($248 million) have been earned. According to SpaceNews, there is also some CRS money ($101 million) that has also been earned. Those are revenues that have been paid by NASA.  Elon said that they have spent about $500 million in expenses on Dragon and Falcon. So they also are also cash flow positive if you factor in the money invested by Elon and the other SpaceX investors.

Offline simonth

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #69 on: 06/15/2010 03:36 pm »
What makes you say that?

The COTS Milestones ($248 million) have been earned. According to SpaceNews, there is also some CRS money ($101 million) that has also been earned. Those are revenues that have been paid by NASA.  Elon said that they have spent about $500 million in expenses on Dragon and Falcon. So they also are also cash flow positive if you factor in the money invested by Elon and the other SpaceX investors.

From a controlling perspective, the COTS milestones are "grants", not income from operations (except the money tied to the 3 COTS Demo missions).

Income from operations is what the company receives on a continuous basis for rendering their major services. Basically what they receive from customers for launches. That's also what investors will care about, because that is what the company is based on for the next 10 years.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #70 on: 06/15/2010 04:32 pm »
Quote
The 9-engines on a rocket are a liability to the Falcon 9, not an asset.

That doesn't sound right to me.  Maybe there was an earlier five engine scheme, but to suggest that it was "certainly not a design decision people would make when talking about a clean sheet rocket" certainly doesn't make sense.  I'm pretty sure that they designed a rocket system.  Your statement, "SpaceX had to make the decision based on the engine they had developed" sounds like you think that they built the rocket around the engine.  That would not have been good practice.

Why, the Atlas and Thor did. They both started with an engine developed for the Navaho. And it served them well...

You go to Space with the Engines you have.

Notice despite all the talk the primary US upper stage engine is still the RL-10. Didn't the AJ-10 start with Vanguard? How many different vehicles has it been the engine for?
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Impact of Spacex Falcon 9 success on other countries
« Reply #71 on: 06/15/2010 04:47 pm »
SpaceX has proven it knows how to develop engines and rockets. They haven't proven if they can be operationally efficient (yet!). I agree that 2012 is probably the earliest that operational launch income would equal operating costs.

Also, they're going to need at least one more launch pad for Falcon 9 before it is commercially viable. Vandenberg or Kwaj (possibly both, if they can figure out how to keep fixed costs down for launches... i.e. integrate the rocket in Cali, ship it out integrated to Kwaj). Most likely Vandenberg.
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