NASASpaceFlight.com Forum
SpaceX Vehicles and Missions => SpaceX Starship Program => Topic started by: Chris Bergin on 09/23/2016 02:25 pm
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This is the main live update thread for Elon's landmark speech at the IAC. It will remain locked until just before the speech to ensure this is purely updates. Please use the other thread - linked below - for everything else.
One Stop Resource Page
Live Speech Updates - You're in it.
Speech Discussion Thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41249.0)
Party Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41215.0)
NSF at the IAC Thread (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40626.0)
SpaceX Mars Section (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=72.0)
Key Baseline NSF News Articles for SpaceX and Mars:
Initial Raptor Engine Overview (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/03/spacex-advances-drive-mars-rocket-raptor-power/)
SLS vs BFR (2014) (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2014/08/battle-heavyweight-rockets-sls-exploration-rival/)
Red Dragon/Falcon Heavy 2018 (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/spacex-debut-red-dragon-2018-mars-mission//)
Reuse tech relevance to Mars Missions article (https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/06/reusability-successes-earth-proving-ground-mars/)
Other SpaceX resources on NASASpaceflight:
SpaceX News Articles (Recent) (http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/tag/spacex/)
SpaceX News Articles from 2006 (Including numerous exclusive Elon interviews) (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21862.0)
L2 SpaceX Mars Resources:
L2 SpaceX Section (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=60.0)
Key Master Threads: (please also consult All Vehicle Updates and McGregor (Raptor)) Sections
L2 SpaceX BFR/MCT Envisioning/Data and Renders (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35307.0)
L2 Level: SpaceX Mars Master Thread (Red Dragon to BFR/MCT/Base) (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=38710.0)
L2 SpaceX Rocket & Spacecraft Simulation Thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37599.0)
Remember, this is only for updates, please use the discussion, party and other threads as this thread will be only used for updates from the speech. Non update posts will be removed.
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Not long now.
Webcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1YxNYiyALg
This is a live update thread, but if several of us post quotes and screenshots we won't miss anything. I'm going to be drafting an article at the same time, so I'll be mainly busy with that.
If we get duplicate quotes or screenshots, I'd sooner have that than miss anything. Of course, the video will be recorded, but there's always special value in live. We still have people looking back 10 years to live mission threads etc. This is live and then becomes an archive.
Discussion - please use that thread.
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T-60 minutes!
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My comment was unrepeatable in a public forum. Biconic won. Period.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA
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@elonmusk
12m rocket booster diameter, 17m spaceship diameter, 122 m stack height
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Ok guys. Grab quotes as much as you can.
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@jeff_foust:
Five minutes before the scheduled start, and they’re still not letting people in yet. Predicting a launch delay. #IAC2016
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@jeff_foust:
Finally opening a door for press. But only for those with cameras. #IAC2016
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Elon Musk @elonmusk 51s52 seconds ago
Waiting for everyone to reach their seats and get settled. Starting in 5 to 10.
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Jeff Foust @jeff_foust 5s6 seconds ago
Just opened the doors for the general audience. People literally running to get the best seats. Like Walmart on Black Friday. #IAC2016
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Jeff Foust @jeff_foust 6s6 seconds ago
People still filing in. Expect a start maybe in the next 10 minutes. Also, no wifi at all here. #IAC2016
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Jeff Foust @jeff_foust 19s19 seconds ago
Starting in a few minutes. #IAC2016
Questions from press and general audience after the talk.
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SpaceX stream is now live
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Just started.
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Can't believe the head of CNES introduced Elon!
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Introduction from CNES representative- missed name?
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"I want to make Mars seem possible, in our lifetimes."
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Nothing on utube yet.
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"That's what we want"....
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Our goal is the fourth rock.
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Explains why Mars in the only option. Nothing against going to the Moon, but challenging to become multiplanetary.
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Mars can be scaled up.
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Venus is a high-pressure high-temperature acid bath.
"Not like the goddess."
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Walking through a model of the solar system, explaining "why Mars", instead of elsewhere such as the Moon. Mars has an earth-like day, an atmosphere, Mars is much better suited to ultimately scale up to a self-sustaining civilization.
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Elon wants to warm Mars up. Right into the terraforming part.
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Wants to build a Mars City.
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Need to bring cost down to $200,000 per person
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"Landing on the Moon the greatest accomplishment of mankind"
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"Reduce cost of going to Mars by 5 million percent."
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The orders of magnitude.
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Booster and Tanker increases payload capability.
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Prop plant on Mars, allows to send the ships back to Earth. No graveyard of ships.
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On prop choice. "Methane was the clear winner"
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Replaying video released earlier today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qo78R_yYFA)
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Over 100,000 people watching YT livestream.
I guess the rest follows here on NSF!
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Not an artists impression.
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"It will look almost exactly like that. Video from SpaceX CAD models".
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"Fleet of ships departing enmasse"
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The Mars Colonial Fleet would have hundreds of spacecrafts in orbit that all leave at the same time
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"Mars Colonial Fleet will leave together. A bit like Battlestar Galactica - great show". <---So Say We All!
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"It's quite big"
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"Yeah, it's quite big" - Elon. And Elon says there will be bigger ones in the future!
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100 people a trip, but may expand crew size to 200 - to reduce costs. 10,000 flights planned.
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"Carrying iron foundries to pizza joints"...
100,000 people per trip (of fleet)
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Eventually extending crew cabin to 200 people.
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The Mars image behind Musk has green regions - terraforming
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Densified deeply-cryogenic propellant. Carbon-fiber primary structure.
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"Challenge to make deep cryo tanks out of carbon fiber " (no liner!)
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Gassify props and use that for pressurization and RCS
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"Carbon Fiber...which is tricky" But don't now need a liner. Prop pressurizes the tank (no naughty COPVs with Helium!)
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Methane and oxygen for control thrusters.
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Spark ignition (no more green flash of TEA-TEB)
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Only need two ingredients instead of five on Falcon 9
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First time the performance bar will exceed the size of the rocket.
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"It will be quite tectonic when it takes off"
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Will lift up from the pad 39A
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Quite tectonic when it takes off.
Add South Texas launch take off.
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Raptor "Highest chamber pressure engine ever built"
Throttle range 20% - 100%
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Raptor vac 382 sec isp critical feature.
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Throttle range 20% to 100% for Raptor.
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42 engines first stage
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Engine redundancy. If some engines fail you can continue the mission.
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Raptor and Booster S1. 42 of the former on the latter. Happy with a lot of engines. Redundancy is a big factor.
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7 to 6 percent of prop for return.
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We are getting quite comfortable with landing accuracy.
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Centering fixture to align to launch mount on landing.
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Center seven Raptors gimble. Rest are fixed.
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LOX tank in vehicle is the hardest part - we've already started on it and we'll show some pictures later (wha???)
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The Ship.
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450t max cargo
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Trip time.
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TPS
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CFD Model of ITS
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Crew compartment fly thru.
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Compared to Sat V
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Onboard the ship.
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It's gonna be fun and entertaining. (crew compartment)
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"Really fun to go. You'll have a great time"
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Cost...
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Total cost projection. Cost per ticket less that $200,000.
$140,000 per ton estimate
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Heh...funding.
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How to pay for it.
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Alluding to NGO for funding the colonization.
(He'll contibute too!!)
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The Ship.
Mentioned with this slide: on the ship, as on the booster, only the center engines gimbal. In this case the center engines are the SL optimized engines.
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Timelines - Not the best at this kind of thing...
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In 2002 SpaceX consisted of carpet and Mariachi band.
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on is building assets SOLELY for this goal.
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SpaceX, the early years.
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"Technology doesn't automatically improve. It takes engineering talent and effort to make it improve"
(Musk on why he started SpaceX)
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Increadibly grateful to NASA for supporting SpaceX.
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Elon recalls the path since starting. Special mention to NASA for supporting SpaceX "I'm a huge fan".
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"Hoping to refly in a couple of months".
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Next steps - We're intentionally fuzzy at this point
Hopefully to complete first spaceship in four years.
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Did he just admit he's designed a SSTO?
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Timeline!
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New York to Tokyo in 25 minutes.
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Actually talking about point-to-point transit here on Earth. Maximum time 45 minutes to anywhere on Earth, to a floating platform. 25 minutes New York to Tokyo. Not that it's a plan per se, but it's a possibility...
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Try to send something every opposition. Steady cadence.
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Red Dragon 2018, 2020....and every Mars window. Even when the big ship is flying. Red Dragon will fly every window.
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Raptor all up firing. Thanks to the Raptor team.
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Video of Raptor test firing - about 9 seconds by my count.
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Really hard to make carbon fibre structures with these requirements.
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Holy crap! They've built a LOX tank for the spacecraft.
Tested with cryo LOX already
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Dev tank!
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Beyond Mars.
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Establishing a propellant depot in the asteroid belt.
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Picture of landed on Enceladus.
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Now talking about prop depots at Mars, a Jupiter Moon, asteroids. Allowing for....Oh my:
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Q/A
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Derek (Helodriver!!) gets the first question
Where will it be built since it's too large to transport by road?
Initial launch from 39-A. Construction of ship and booster will probably be done at some Gulf state regions like Louisiana. Probably construct in multiple states and final assembly in launch site.
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Damn!
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Derrick gets first question!!!!
Asks about launch integration, 39A.
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Haha, I was like "that's gotta be HeloDriver." Good Q! Construction in various states with final assembly at launch states.
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Spaceship would have small payload to LEO as a SSTO.
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Construction in multiple gulf states.
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Facepalm. "Are we going to have toilet on Mars?"
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Who was that last question from? And what was with the profanity? Sheesh.
(Sorry for the cluttering of the live thread though)
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Second question is....strange.
Q: "I was at Burning Man and there was a lot of human excrement. Are we going to have a toilet on Mars that can't use water?"
A: If you have energy, there is water because of the massive amounts of ice.
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For construction, looking possibly at the Gulf states, such as Michoud, probably use multiple locations and assemble elsewhere.
39A is "quite a big site", thinks they can fit it to launch both FH and Interplanetary system's initial flights.
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First journey to Mars will be dangerous ... are you prepared to die ... then you're a candidate for going.
Later ... different than Apollo.
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Up to the public to decide about taking nuclear power to Mars.
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Standing ovation.
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For construction, looking possibly at the Gulf states, such as Michoud, probably use multiple locations and assemble elsewhere.
39A is "quite a big site", thinks they can fit it to launch both FH and Interplanetary system's initial flights.
Barge-transportable then to Texas and Florida
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Some risk of radiation but not deadly. Some shielding.
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The goal of SX is to build the transport system, like the railroad".
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Q: How to keep people safe from deep-space radiation and on the surface of Mars.
A: Radiation risk in space - there will be some slight increase in risk from cancer, but Musk doesn't believe it will be that bad. On the surface risk is half because of atmosphere
Construct artificial magnetic field to protect from energetic particles. (?!?)
This is just the transport system, once you're there you can build everything from iron refineries to the first pizza joint.
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SpaceX is like the Union-Pacific Railroad.
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Q: I'm Russian, are you going to hire people outside the US?
A: This is not up to us, US gov't regulations make it so a regular work visa is not sufficient to hire people to work on advanced weapon systems (which rockets fall into).
Wish we could do more, hands are tied by ITAR.
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Next question was a weird advert for a comedy website. Talks about sending people on one-way trips.
Elon answers it well. Need to give people the option of returning, even if they never actually return. Initial immigrants to the Americas didn't return to Europe, even though they technically could. Makes people more likely to go.
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If your and explorer and want to push the frontier, that's what we're appealing to.
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Currently spending about 5% of resources on Mars.
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Funding for ITS will increase after the "final version of F9" (and Dragon V2) - which is slated for next year.
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Training for a Mars flight- "about two days... you can train longer if you want."
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Q: Resources - how much is Musk putting in now and as development continues
A: Pretty low right now, under 5% of the company - maybe spending a few 10s of millions of dollars right now. As we finish development of the final version of Falcon 9 (later next year) and Dragon 2 (get re-use of Dragon 2 sorted out) we can devote more of our engineering team to ITS.
Within 1 1/2 years we'll have most of SpaceX engineering team working on ITS.
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Within a 1.5 years be able to dedicate engineering team to ITS". ... Investment of $10B.
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Musks says he'd like to go to orbit, visit ISS, maybe go to Mars.
Needs to make sure the company continues and doesn't get taken over by investors only concerned with profit if he dies.
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Who are choosing those questioners?... *facepalm*
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Forcing function for making space technology better".
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Interstellar travel: Best way to do it would be an anti-matter drive due to mass efficiency. Even best case it's a very long journey to someplace like Proxima Centuri.
Once there is a base on Mars, there will be a forcing function to advance the space transportation technology to do things like interstellar technology / travel.
Trying to do interstellar right off the bat would be very tricky, like building a 747 as the first airplane every built.
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Says he considered a cycler, but the costs didn't work out. Needs to have frequent reuse. Not ruled out though, more future optimisation.
Name of first ship to Mars "Heart of Gold." He thinks.
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Q: Why not a cycler (Hi Buzz Aldrin)
A: We considered it, you could do a cycler but our calculations showed it's better to just to directly there. Could turn out in the future that cycler and prop depot on the moon would be good, but that would be in the category of future optimization.
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Q: "cyclers"
A: "you could to a cycler, but our calculations say its better to go direct. Turnover rate matters. A possible future optimization. "
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Heart of Gold!
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First ship might be named "Heart of Gold" (lots of Douglas Adams love here)
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Elon just struck down cyclers and depots on the Moon; he prefers the straight route so Zubrin's going to be smiling somewhere.
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Likes the idea of calling the first ship "Heart of Gold".
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Greatly insightful comment by EM about "forcing function". Establishing a base on Mars will prompt greater developments in transportation, which even he cannot foresee. He referred to 747's, which alludes to how Orville and Wilbur could never have foreseen our present use of aircraft. So, too, he cannot see what developments will be prompted by his efforts.
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Where did they get the questioners from? Electric glasses????? :o
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Somebody asked about his electric bus. Space questions only.
Ooooh should NASA use SLS or this? Elon dodges this by saying it's good to have multiple irons in the fire. The more competition the better, all over the world. Compete, team up, whatever.
Will you be the first Man on Mars? I don't think so. I would definitely need to have a succession plan, see my kids grow up.
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Plan is infinitely improbable... chuckle.
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Q: Should NASA stop trying for Mars?
A: Absolutely not, the more people working on it the better, multiple paths to Mars are good
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Wants to encourage SX competitors/partners worldwide.
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Well folks, there you have it. The dawn of the real Space Age, brought to you in a Heinlein rocketship.
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what a disaster of a Q&A session.
but damn good job helodriver!
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Well folks, there you have it. The dawn of the real Space Age, brought to you in a Heinlein rocketship.
Yup, there's a definite resemblance to Luna.
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I only got to see the last ~5 minutes. Was anything mentioned about the Red Dragon and what it might carry?
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I only got to see the last ~5 minutes. Was anything mentioned about the Red Dragon and what it might carry?
RD mentioned, but not its payload.
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Well folks, there you have it. The dawn of the real Space Age, brought to you in a Heinlein rocketship.
Yup, there's a definite resemblance to Luna.
Actually, Harriman Industries.
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Meanwhile, at virtually every other space agency in the world, tumbleweeds were bouncing past.
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Brilliant work by all on this thread. Many thanks! Everyone please use the discussion thread (I know that Q&A went wild) and we'll start churning out articles. A baseline article next. Then lots of specific ones over the days to come.
Got to put my head in an ice bucket first ;D
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Webcast recording is now up at spacex.com
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https://youtu.be/A1YxNYiyALg
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Reasonable capture of all of Elon's slides: http://spaceflight101.com/slides-elon-musk-unveils-spacex-mars-architecture/ (http://spaceflight101.com/slides-elon-musk-unveils-spacex-mars-architecture/)
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Reasonable capture of all of Elon's slides: http://spaceflight101.com/slides-elon-musk-unveils-spacex-mars-architecture/ (http://spaceflight101.com/slides-elon-musk-unveils-spacex-mars-architecture/)
Main booster and spaceship spec slides
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Baseline article. I guestimate about 10 standalone articles to come over the coming weeks.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/09/spacex-reveals-mars-game-changer-colonization-plan/
Thanks to Chris Gebhardt for the additional on the final part.
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Jeff is tweeting from the second presser SpaceX told us (the media) about with short notice (but that was very good of them). Not sure if we get Derrick in time to get over to where it is, but:
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust
(And to all this is the live update thread. Not an update, not going to be here. I know a few people take no notice ;))
Musk: we’ll demonstrate fully autonomous docking capability next year. Once you have that, gives you on-orbit refueling ability.
Musk: “optimistic” schedule calls for first crew launch in late 2024 and arrival in 2025. won’t be much later.
Musk: one goal for the Red Dragon missions is to find out what are the best ways to access Martian water.
Musk: not too concerned about planetary protection; no sign of life on Martian surface. Planet we need to protect is Earth
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More from Elon, via Jeff:
Musk: spaceship can serve as own abort system from booster, but on Mars, either you’re taking off or you’re not
Musk: terraforming a long-term issue, and a decision for the people who are living there
Musk: briefed NASA senior management on this plan ahead of time, but only finished up the presentation this morning.
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Look like for cargo and crew is ~3000m3.
30m3 for person, room 3x3x3m for person not bad.
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Missed that one. Lots of confusion here wether there would be a follow on. Was initially told there would not be. So I was in the Mars Base Camp and buzz Aldrin presentation instead. :(
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Can't believe the head of CNES introduced Elon!
Deserves a second screen shot (attached).
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Here is the official slides of the presentation from SpaceX:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf
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With the right tool the images can be extracted from the PDF with the original resolution, including the outer solar system ones which were cropped because of their wide aspect ratio.
--Luc
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Haven't seen this posted yet, another view of the LOX tank.
SpaceX @SpaceX 13h13 hours ago
First development tank for Mars ship
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/780859793443401728 (https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/780859793443401728)
As has been pointed out on twitter, not sure the fire extinguisher on the left-hand wall will quite be up to the job if there's an issue with the tank ...
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Until the post-presentation realignment occurs, I guess this is the best place for new Elon tweets.
Brian Artusio @BArtusio
@elonmusk How will occupants descend from the spacecraft?At 162 ft., appears too tall to utilize ladder w/ spacesuit. Especially repeatedly
Elon Musk
Elon Musk – Verified account @elonmusk
@BArtusio Three cable elevator on a crane. Wind force on Mars is low, so don't need to worry about being blown around.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/781206685553528833