Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 8001 times)

Offline gongora

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« on: 07/15/2017 02:45 AM »
Discussion of the manifest, and updates. The best guess at the current manifest is in this post. 
Discussion of the table format should be done here: SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion
Prior thread: Thread 4

Sites:
      C=Canaveral (UTC-4 EDT,UTC-5 EST)
            CCAFS SLC-40: Damaged by vehicle explosion (no launches until around August 2017)
            KSC LC-39A: Active for F9, will need further work for FH and Commercial Crew
      V=Vandenberg (UTC-7 PDT,UTC-8 PST)
            SLC-4E: Active for F9
      B=Boca Chica (UTC-5 CDT,UTC-6 CST)
            Site preparation work underway

Daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2017-01-14  0954/-8F91029.1SIridium NEXT (Flight 1)PLR9600V-4E30
2017-02-19  0939/-5F91031.1LCRS 10LEO~10kC-39A31
2017-03-16  0200/-4F91030XEchostar 23GTO~5500C-39A32
2017-03-30  1827/-4F91021.2SSES-10GTO5282C-39A33
2017-05-01  0715/-4F91032LNROL-76LEO?C-39A34
2017-05-15  1921/-4F91034XInmarsat 5 F4GTO6086C-39A35
2017-06-03  1707/-4F91035LCRS 11LEO~10kC-39A36
2017-06-23  1510/-4F91029.2SBulgariaSat-1GTO3669C-39A37
2017-06-25  1325/-7F91036SIridium NEXT (Flight 2)PLR9600V-4E38
2017-07-05  1938/-4F91037XIntelsat 35eGTO6761C-39A39
2017-08-14  1231/-4F91039LCRS 12LEO~10kC-39A40
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  ----- ----
2017-08-24  1150/-7F91038SFORMOSAT-5SSO475V-4E41
2017-09-07F91040LAir Force X-37B OTV-5LEO5400C-39A42
2017-09-30  0630/-7F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 3)PLR9600V-4E43
2017-10F91031.2?SES-11/Echostar 105GTO5400C44
2017-Q4F9.SKoreasat-5AGTO3500C .
2017-11-lateF9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 4)PLR9600V-4E.
2017-Q4F9.XHispasat 1F (30W-6)GTO6092C.
2017-Q4H.LLSFalcon Heavy Demo Flight..C-39A(50)
2017-12F9.LCRS 13LEO~10kC.
2017-12F9.SGovSat-1 (SES-16)GTO4000C.
2017-12F9..BangabandhuGTO~3500C.
2017F9..Paz & co-passengerSSO1400V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SIridium NEXT (Flight 5)PLR9600V-4E.
2018F9..Spaceflight SSO-A (575km)SSO.V-4E.
2018-Q1F9.SSES-14 (NASA GOLD payload)GTO4200C.
2018F9.SEs'hail 2GTO~3kC.
2018-02F9.LCRS 14LEO~10kC(55)
2018-02F9.?CCtCap DM1LEO.C-39A.
2018-Q1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 6)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-H1H.LLSArabsat 6AGTO~6kC-39A.
2018-03-20F9..NASA (TESS)HEO325C .
2018-03F9.?SAOCOM 1ASSO2800V-4E.
2018-04F9.LCRS 15LEO~10kC.
2018-H1F9..Iridium NEXT (Flight 7)PLR9600V-4E.
2018-04F9..CCiCap In-Flight Abort TestSUB.C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5CGTO>5400C.
2018-Q2F9.?Telstar 19 VantageGTO>5400C.
2018-04-30 (NET)H.LLSSTP-2 (US Air Force)MEO~8k?C-39A.
2018-05 (NET)F9..USAF GPS III A-2MEO3880C.
2018-06F9..Telkom 4GTO.C(68)
2018-06F9..CCtCap DM2 (Crew)LEO.C-39A.
2018-midF9..Iridium NEXT 8/GRACE-FOSSO~6000V-4E.
2018F9.?PSN-6 and co-passengerGTO5000C.
2018-08F9.LCRS 16LEO~10kC.
2018-Q3F9..RADARSAT ConstellationSSO1400V-4E.
2018F9..OHB SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2018-10F9.LCRS 17LEO~10kC.
2018-Q4F9..Spaceflight SSO-B (500km)SSO.V-4E(70)
2018-Q4F9..GiSat-1GTO~6kC/B.
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-1(200x36k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-H2F9..Spaceflight GTO-2(200x60k/km)GTO.C(70)
2018-12F9.LCRS 18LEO~10kC.
2019H.???SpaceX Crewed CircumlunarTLI~10k?C-39A
2019F9..CRS 19-20LEO.C.
2019-02F9..USAF GPS IIIA-3MEO3880C.
2019F9..SAOCOM 1B and companionsSSO~3-4kV-4E.
2019F9..OHB SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2019-H2F9..Spaceflight SSO-C (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight GTO-C(200x36k/km)GTO.C/B(70)
2020-H1F9..Spaceflight SSO-D (500km SSO)SSO.V-4E(70)
2020-2021H..ViaSat 3-Americas or 3-EMEAGTO6400C/B(69)
2021-04F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
TBDF..InmarsatGTO.C/B.
TBDF..InmarsatGTO.C/B.
TBD (2019-2024)F9..Commercial Crew (6 flights)LEO.C-39A.
TBD (2020-2024)F9..CRS-2 (6+ flights)LEO.C.
TBDF..EutelSat....

Return: L=Land,S=Sea,X=Expendable,N/A=Not Applicable
Launch Vehicle: F9=Falcon 9, H=Falcon Heavy, F=Falcon 9 or Heavy
Colors: Successful / Unsuccessful / Mars!!!! / Footnotes

L2 SpaceX CRS External Cargo
L2 Level SpaceX Falcon 9 Stage Watch / Public Core Spotting
SpaceX Launch Log (past launches) / Wikipedia Falcon Launches
Viewing flights from Vandenberg / Ben Cooper's Viewing Guide for Cape Canaveral
Upcoming SpaceX Talks / General Industry Talks
SpaceX Falcon Mission Simulations

NOTES:
(50) FH Demo - Serial Numbers: Center:1033  Side1:1023.2  Side2: 1025.2
(55) CRS-14 : EnduroSat One @ARRL
(68) Telkom 4 links Gunter
(69) Viasat 3 : one of first two Viasat 3 birds in mid-2019 or early-2020.  Also third Viasat 3 if it gets built?
  ViaSatellite 2/10/16 SpaceNews 2/10/2016 Gunter
(70) Spaceflight Industries : Upcoming Spaceflight Ind. schedule

Possible future payloads:
Inmarsat 6 F1 SpaceNews mention / Airbus contract / Gunter / Space Intel mention

Competitions for future payloads:
Air Force - EELV, First 5

L2 notes on manifest:

Recent Edits:
Aug 13 Moved CRS-13 to early December
Jul 28  Moved Iridium 4 to late November, Iridium 5 to Q1-2018, SES-11 to October
Jul 26  Moved OTV-5 to September, Telstar 18V & 19V to Q2-2018
Jul 22  Moved SES-16 to December 2017
Jul 21  Moved CRS-12 to August 14.  Moved DM-1 to February 2018.
Jul 19  Removed Red Dragon
Jul 11  Moved SAOCOM-1A to March 2018, SAOCOM-1B to 2019, removed specific months from future Iridium flights
Jun 30  Moved SES-14 to 2018-Q1
Jun 28  Moved OTV-5 to August 28.
Jun 27  Removed exact date from OTV-5.  Moved Formosat-5 to August 24.  Moved Iridium Flight 3 to September.  Moved SES-11 to September.  Moved Koreasat-5A to Q4.  Moved PSN-6 to mid-2018.  Moved Intelsat 35e to July 2.  Removed ViaSat-3 Asia.  Marked Iridium Flight 2 complete.

All comments and updates are welcomed!  Thank you to all contributors!
« Last Edit: 08/16/2017 06:34 PM by gongora »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #1 on: 07/15/2017 02:45 AM »
Previous Missions

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- --- ------ ---  ----------------------------  ---  -----  -----  ----
2010-06-04  1445/-4F9..Dragon Qual UnitLEO~6kC-401
2010-12-08  1043/-5F9..Dragon C1LEO~8kC-402
2012-05-22  0344/-4F9..Dragon C2LEO~8kC-403
2012-10-07*2035/-4F9..CRS-1LEO~8kC-404
2013-03-01  1010/-5F9..CRS-2LEO~9kC-405
2013-09-29  0900/-7F9..CassiopePLR500V-4E6
2013-12-03  1741/-5F9..SES-8GTO3183C-407
2014-01-06  1706/-5F9..Thaicom 6GTO3016C-408
2014-04-18  1525/-4F9..CRS-3LEO~10kC-409
2014-07-14  1115/-4F9..Orbcomm OG2 Flight 1LEO1-2kC-4010
2014-08-05  0400/-4F9..Asiasat 8GTO4535C-4011
2014-09-07  0100/-4F9..Asiasat 6GTO4428C-4012
2014-09-21  0152/-4F9..CRS-4LEO~10kC-4013
2015-01-10  0447/-5F9.SCRS-5LEO~10kC-4014
2015-02-11  1803/-5F9..DSCOVREEO570C-4015
2015-03-01*2250/-5F9..Eutelsat 115WB/ABS 3AGTO4159C-4016
2015-04-14  1610/-4F9.SCRS-6LEO~10kC-4017
2015-04-27  1903/-4F9..TürkmenÄlem 52E/MonacoSATGTO4707C-4018
2015-06-28  1021/-4F9.N/ACRS-7 (failed)LEO~10kC-4019
2015-12-21  2029/-5F91019LORBCOMM OG2 Launch 2LEO1892C-4020
2016-01-17  1042/-8F9.SJason-3LEO553V-4E21
2016-03-04  1835/-5F9.SSES-9GTO5271C-4022
2016-04-08  1643/-4F91021.1SCRS-8LEO~10kC-4023
2016-05-06  0121/-4F91022SJCSAT-14GTO4696C-4024
2016-05-27  1740/-4F91023.1SThaicom 8GTO3025C-4025
2016-06-15  1029/-4F9.SEutelsat 117W B & ABS-2AGTO4200C-4026
2016-07-18  0045/-4F9.LCRS-9LEO~10kC-4027
2016-08-14  0126/-4F9.SJCSAT-16GTO~4600C-4028
2016-09-01  0907/-4F9.N/AAMOS-6(destroyed in pad test)GTO5500C-4029
« Last Edit: 08/13/2017 07:19 PM by gongora »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #2 on: 07/20/2017 12:32 PM »
[Moderator Note:  This chart is maintained by a different person than the table in the first post, so they may be slightly out of sync.  Discussion of the chart format should take place in the SpaceX Manifest Table Format Discussion thread.]

Disclaimer:
1. This chart is based on information from open sources only. Therefore, it has a lot of guesswork.
2. I fully realize that most of actual dates and even launch order will turn out quite different, but prediction is not the purpose. The purpose of the chart is to visualize “launch density” and possible scheduling conflicts for Cape and Vandenberg.
I’ll update this chart as new scheduling information becomes available, however, some time-gap between this chart and the above schedule table is inevitable (will try to minimize it :) )

Notes for the chart (permanent ones)
Vertical scale:
Shows three pads operated by SpaceX at two ranges – Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral – enclosed in dotted grey lines.
Horizontal scale is approximate because I just divided year into 12 equal periods, therefore tick-marks are not exactly on the 1st of the month.
Launch marks:
SpaceX launches are blue circles. Blue crosses show the dates of successful Static Fire tests for the past launches and the one already scheduled for the next launch. Bright blue labels denote government launches (NASA, NRO, and USAF).
Red circles represent all other launches (ULA and Orbital ATK) from any pads of these two ranges.
Vertical green line shows the date for a particular version of the chart.

------------------------------------------
Note for particular chart (as of July 28, 2017).
Basically just one thing: the Oct-Dec schedule for Cape is pretty tight.
The launch cadence is similar to May-June, but there is a difference - in May-June SpaceX had Eastern Range all for themselves, there were no flights by ULA in this period.  Here they have three launches for Oct-Dec, and all satellites are for military.
------------------------------------------
Note for update of Aug 16 2017:
Two ULA launches moved to 2018 (pale-dotted marks show their old launch dates).
So for Oct-Dec, SpaceX is the only user of Eastern Range.
« Last Edit: Today at 01:08 PM by smoliarm »

Offline gongora

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« Last Edit: 08/02/2017 04:56 AM by gongora »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #4 on: 07/21/2017 11:40 PM »
Thanks for the illuminating schedule chart.


Offline Jakusb

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #5 on: 07/22/2017 07:06 AM »
https://twitter.com/govsatlu/status/888375632584900608

GovSat-1 launch expected for December 2017 #GovSat1 #satellite #Luxembourg #Europe #Defence 100komma7.lu/article/aktual…

Edit: added the tweet contents. Just realized that Tapatalk now automatically displays tweets from just the link alone, but the forum (accessed directly) does not..

Text from related 21 juli article:
De Satellit GovSat-1 dierft mat liichtem Retard lancéiert ginn. Den initiale Plang war e Lancement am Oktober. Vun der privater US-Entreprise SpaceX hätt een elo eng Zäitfënster confirméiert kritt. A priori fir Dezember, sou de Generaldirekter vu LuxGovSat Patrick Biewer. Enn 2017, respektiv Ufank 2018 soll de Betrib vum sougenannte Militär-Satellit kënnen ufänken

So SpaceX gave LuxGovSat CEO Patrick Biewer notice the launch is now planned for December
« Last Edit: 07/22/2017 09:27 AM by Jakusb »

Offline Jakusb

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SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #6 on: 07/22/2017 10:21 PM »
Lol!
https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/888884565468688385

Me:
Any chance you will start using flight proven boosters for coming launches?
IridiumBoss:
Sure, there is always a chance...
« Last Edit: 07/22/2017 10:21 PM by Jakusb »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #7 on: 07/26/2017 06:26 PM »
Possible change in X-37B date:

Quote
Changes to Eastern Range launch schedule: SpaceX CRS-12 now no earlier than 8/14; SpaceX X-37B NET 9/7; ULA NROL-52 NET 9/25.

https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/890273595166949377

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #8 on: 07/26/2017 09:41 PM »
[SpaceNews] Telesat says low latency led to LEO constellation
Quote
Telesat does have two GEO-HTS satellites under construction, Telstar-18 Vantage and Telstar-19 Vantage, from Space Systems Loral of Palo Alto, California. Those are scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2018, Goldberg said. Both are launching on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Telstar-18 Vantage, which Hong Kong-based APT Satellite is co-financing in exchange for capacity on the satellite, targets the Asia Pacific; Telstar 19 Vantage covers the Americas.

Offline OnWithTheShow

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #9 on: 07/27/2017 12:54 PM »
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏ @pbdes

Next @IridiumComm launch by @SpaceX is set for Sept. 30 from VAFB, Iridium says.

Online Comga

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What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #11 on: 07/28/2017 02:12 PM »
Iridium Announces Third Iridium® NEXT Launch Date

MCLEAN, Va. – July 28, 2017 - Iridium Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: IRDM) announced today that the upcoming Iridium NEXT launch has been targeted for September 30, 2017 at 6:30 a.m. PDT. This launch will deliver another 10 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and will bring the total number of Iridium NEXT satellites deployed to 30. SpaceX selected the September 30th launch date based on rocket and Vandenberg Air Force Base range availability. SpaceX’s targeted launch schedule accommodates completion of the Iridium NEXT constellation as planned in mid-2018. In total, SpaceX will deliver 75 Iridium NEXT satellites to orbit. In case of inclement weather, a backup launch date has been scheduled for October 1.

Unlike previous launches where some Iridium NEXT satellites were sent drifting to an orbital plane different from where they were launched, all 10 satellites for this launch are currently planned to provide service in orbital plane four. The Iridium constellation’s unique architecture is designed with six polar orbiting planes consisting of 11 interconnected satellites per plane, with in-orbit spares, creating a true web of connectivity around the planet.

SpaceX has scheduled the fourth launch to take place in late November. Iridium NEXT manufacturing has completed enough satellites for nearly the next three SpaceX launches. All Iridium NEXT launches take place from SpaceX’s West Coast launch facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

Iridium NEXT is the company’s $3 billion next-generation mobile, global satellite network scheduled for completion in 2018. Iridium NEXT will replace the company’s

existing global constellation in one of the largest technology upgrades ever completed in space. It represents the evolution of critical communications infrastructure that governments and organizations worldwide rely upon to drive business, enable connectivity, empower disaster relief efforts and more. Iridium NEXT will enable and introduce new services like the company’s next-generation communications platform, Iridium CertusSM, and the AireonSM space-based ADS-B aircraft surveillance and flight tracking network. The Iridium NEXT satellites are manufactured by Thales Alenia Space and assembled by its subcontractor, Orbital ATK, at its facility in Gilbert, Arizona.

For more information about Iridium NEXT, please visit www.IridiumNEXT.com.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #12 on: 07/28/2017 05:15 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October?  SES quarterly earning statement was released today.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #13 on: 07/28/2017 05:40 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.

Offline IanThePineapple

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #14 on: 07/28/2017 05:47 PM »
SES-11 may have slipped to October? 

If so, SES-11 may now be the first flight from pad 40 after its reactivation.

That's fitting because SES-11 was supposed to be the first 39A launch after it was finished, pre-AMOS 6
Proud creator of Ian's Paper Model Rocket Collection:
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Online Chris Bergin

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #15 on: 08/02/2017 05:27 PM »
A good place for this per the SpaceX side:
Eastern Range ready to return with two key launches after stand down - by Chris Gebhardt

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2017/08/eastern-range-return-two-key-launches-stand-down/

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #16 on: 08/03/2017 04:29 PM »
My current guess for matching FCC permits to future SpaceX missions (a very inexact science):

[Payload (FCC Mission #) - Location, Landing Method]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRS-12 (CRS-12) - Florida, RTLS
Formosat 5 (1344) - California, ASDS
OTV-5 (1348) - Florida, RTLS
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
Iridium Flight 3 (1339) - California, ASDS
Koreasat-5A (1370) - Florida, permit is for either RTLS or ASDS
CRS-13 (not filed yet)
Hispasat 30W-6 (1387) - Florida, Expendable

« Last Edit: 08/03/2017 04:32 PM by gongora »

Offline Raul

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #17 on: 08/04/2017 09:13 AM »
SES-11 (1334) - Florida, ASDS
FCC M1334 should be already used for BulgariaSat-1 mission

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #19 on: 08/09/2017 06:45 PM »
Quote
Launch of @EchoStar-105/@SES_Satellites-11 C/Ku/Ka-band sat on @SpaceX Falcon 9 now scheduled for "early 4th quarter," EchoStar says.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/895353459347570688

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