Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2H (1 July - 31 December) 2017?

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21-25
26-30
31-35
More than 35!

Voting closes: 08/01/2017 09:01 PM


Author Topic: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?  (Read 2206 times)

Offline Lar

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POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« on: 07/02/2017 08:56 PM »
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2H 2017

See http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 for lots of details. Same exact rules and criteria apply here.

There are three polls:

Overall: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43271.0 (this one)
Vandy:   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43274.0
Cape:    http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43275.0
 
Your site numbers don't have to sum to the overall if you don't want. :)

The question is simple. How many more flights will SpaceX get in this year, starting from 1 July (so the (as of this minute) not yet launched Intelsat 35e launch is part of your prediction if it hasn't launched, or a "gimme" if it has)

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 07/02/2017 09:49 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights In 2H 2017?
« Reply #1 on: 07/02/2017 08:57 PM »
I think 20 is reasonable as a total so I voted 11
« Last Edit: 07/02/2017 09:02 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Poole Amateur

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights In 2H 2017?
« Reply #2 on: 07/02/2017 09:10 PM »
Gone for 8. 16 flights this year will be a great achievement and I would rather see a measured acceleration in launch rate (recent history notwithstanding). Bowing to schedule pressure makes me nervous.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights from in 2H 2017?
« Reply #3 on: 07/02/2017 09:13 PM »
 Did anybody look at the title of this thread?

Offline gongora

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #4 on: 07/02/2017 09:20 PM »
I'll go for 13: 6 F9 in 3rd quarter, 6 F9 in 4th quarter, and top it off with a FH demo near the end of the year.

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #5 on: 07/02/2017 09:26 PM »
Went with 8 more. I expect teething pains with LC-40, FH and Block V.  Plus the occasional range conflict and late payload.

Of course once I hit submit I regretted it as I now think I was overly pessimistic with my fecal-matter-occurs multiplier.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #6 on: 07/02/2017 09:31 PM »
13
2 Falcon 9 per month on average seems reasonable + 1x Falcon Heavy (I am an optimist)

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #7 on: 07/02/2017 09:59 PM »
Did anybody look at the title of this thread?
Too much copypasta, but I think it's fixed now (except for your subject line, I left that so people get what you meant)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Barrie

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #8 on: 07/02/2017 11:12 PM »
Had a count-up on the Starhawk92-gongora manifest, and came to 10 Cape and 6 Vandenberg.  Arbitrarily deducted 2 from each for stuff not going to plan, so I voted 8 Cape and 4 Vandenberg, total 12.

Offline ZachS09

Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #9 on: 07/03/2017 01:52 AM »
Had a count-up on the Starhawk92-gongora manifest, and came to 10 Cape and 6 Vandenberg.  Arbitrarily deducted 2 from each for stuff not going to plan, so I voted 8 Cape and 4 Vandenberg, total 12.

Voted the same thing as you did; before I saw your post.
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Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #10 on: 07/03/2017 02:46 AM »
I voted 6 Cape, 4 Vandy and 10 total.

Online Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #11 on: 07/03/2017 10:07 PM »
Went with 8 more. I expect teething pains with LC-40, FH and Block V.  Plus the occasional range conflict and late payload.

Of course once I hit submit I regretted it as I now think I was overly pessimistic with my fecal-matter-occurs multiplier.

Had the exact same thoughts and hit the same number, before scrolling down to see what everyone else had put.
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline IanThePineapple

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #12 on: 07/03/2017 10:09 PM »
I did 11, I would have done 12 (2 per month), but the range outage and probable SLC-40 restart slips (adjusting to an essentially new pad), but with a few Vandy flights, I did 11.
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Offline llanitedave

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #13 on: 07/05/2017 04:55 PM »
I also voted 8.  I'd like to see more, and I know they'll try for more, but between the upcoming hurricane season and unanticipated technical problems with the pads, and maybe also FH, I'm not as optimistic as I'd like to be.
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Online high road

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #14 on: 07/06/2017 06:41 AM »
I'm going for 9, which I consider quite optimistic, as my rationale makes it seem far lower. Teething problems with LC 40 will limit the number of launches to less than two per month for the east coast in september/october, and even keeping LC39 open to compensate for this would push FH out to 2018 (unfortunately those are not mutually exclusive).

So to make it to 9 launches, has to do another launch spurt as they did in the last month.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #15 on: 07/06/2017 07:40 AM »
13

July - 1 launch (Intelsat)
August - 3 launches (including the Vandenberg launch, since the capability to launch from the East and West coasts with only a few days separation has now been demonstrated)

Then a reasonable 2 average F9's per month from September onwards, from the Cape and Vandenberg combined (that's another 8 launches)
Plus one Falcon Heavy launch this year.

That's 13 total for the second half of the year.


Offline Johnnyhinbos

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POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #16 on: 07/06/2017 10:40 AM »
Had a count-up on the Starhawk92-gongora manifest, and came to 10 Cape and 6 Vandenberg.  Arbitrarily deducted 2 from each for stuff not going to plan, so I voted 8 Cape and 4 Vandenberg, total 12.
I voted same thing you did AFTER I read your post

I'm curious how this squares with their 2017 total poll. I had voted 18 total flights, but with ten under their belt already, my H2 vote of 12 boosts my overall count from 18 to 22

Edit to correct fat thumbs...
« Last Edit: 07/06/2017 02:21 PM by Johnnyhinbos »
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Offline Darth Pathetic

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #17 on: 07/06/2017 01:12 PM »
15 launches:

     From 39A/40:
        1 in july
        1 in august
        8 sept-dec, 2 x month

     From Vandenberg:
        4

     FH (39A):
        1

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #18 on: 07/06/2017 02:29 PM »
I voted 13.

5 VAFB
8 Cape

The major items limiting the launches is payload availability followed by booster availability. Launch rate supported by mix of new and used boosters supports just over 2 launches on average per month. Surge capability for a month can be as high as 4 but unlikely to happen. Pad/Range availability looks like it may be a limiting factor but it is not. LC39A will launch at least 3 times by end of Aug before shutting down for mods to then launch FH in Nov. LC40 will starting in Sept launch once a month for the remaining 4 months. Mainly this is due to two things the ramp up of the pad and the lack of ready payloads. SLC4E will launch 5 more times of once a month starting in Aug.

Basicly 2 a month except for 1 in July, 3 in Aug, and 3 in Nov.

Offline AbuSimbel

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Re: POLL: How many SpaceX flights in 2H 2017?
« Reply #19 on: 07/07/2017 01:43 PM »
Looks like 12 is Elon's target:
Quote
elonmusk: 10 so far this year, another 12 to go
https://www.instagram.com/p/BWPu_jrAFBB/?taken-by=elonmusk

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