Author Topic: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1  (Read 167522 times)

Offline Star One

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SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #400 on: 05/12/2017 08:28 am »
Eric Berger:

Quote
Credible rumor: Two sources say NASA to announce EM-1 plans Friday. No crew. Delayed into late 2019. Hard to see this as a positive if true.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/862849532094275584

If true I think not risking crew on the first flight is a real positive compared with doing it ... Clearly delay not positive but also not a surprise.

Does this then turn into wondering if SLS will ever fly? And starting to be seen as an irrelevance in the face of private competition.
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 08:29 am by Star One »

Offline john smith 19

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #401 on: 05/12/2017 09:34 am »
Eric Berger twitter:
Quote
At this point I wouldn't bet on a crewed Orion flight by 2024.

Responding to NASA Watch:
Quote
Odd op ed from someone drinking Trump's Koolaid. Just because you want to go to Mars by 2024 does not mean that it can actually happen.
The latestst NASAwatch entry is not that that optimistic on SLS. Do you mean Space News?

http://spacenews.com/trumps-right-a-mars-mission-by-2024-is-possible/

[EDIT TL:DR He thinks $30Bn can get a flags & footprints mission to Mars with a Columbus module for living space and a Dragon 2 for the landing. 6 years because "America is better at sprints than marathons."   


In pursuance of this sites profanity policy I express polite skepticism of the suggested plan. ]

I wonder who chose Ms Rubins from the astronaut corps?
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 09:50 am by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline woods170

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #402 on: 05/12/2017 10:27 am »
Eric Berger twitter:
Quote
At this point I wouldn't bet on a crewed Orion flight by 2024.

Responding to NASA Watch:
Quote
Odd op ed from someone drinking Trump's Koolaid. Just because you want to go to Mars by 2024 does not mean that it can actually happen.
The latestst NASAwatch entry is not that that optimistic on SLS. Do you mean Space News?

http://spacenews.com/trumps-right-a-mars-mission-by-2024-is-possible/

[EDIT TL:DR He thinks $30Bn can get a flags & footprints mission to Mars with a Columbus module for living space and a Dragon 2 for the landing. 6 years because "America is better at sprints than marathons."   


In pursuance of this sites profanity policy I express polite skepticism of the suggested plan. ]

I wonder who chose Ms Rubins from the astronaut corps?

Emphasis mine.
Goes to show just how disconnected some of those folks are. The production line for Columbus was shut down ages ago. Re-doing Columbus is thus silly. Might just as well develop something new.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #403 on: 05/12/2017 10:48 am »
Would I be right in saying that the Cygnus cargo can is basically using the same basic tooling and configuration as the ISS modules? It is non-trivial to do but surely it would be possible to turn the Cygnus can into the basis for a deep space crew habitat or lab. Plug it into a ATV or ESM instead of the Cygnus bus if you need more bang for your buck.

In the end, it's always a case of 'show me the money' but I'm convinced that if NASA were to make a competition of it, they could manage a fixed-schedule and reasonable-budget option or two.

That said, this is something that should have been done years ago as a starting mission module for SLS. The problem is that the rocket has been the only thing and no-one has been talking seriously about near-term payloads up until quite recently.
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 10:49 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline jgoldader

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #404 on: 05/12/2017 11:04 am »
Plug it into a ATV or ESM instead of the Cygnus bus if you need more bang for your buck.

In the end, it's always a case of 'show me the money' but I'm convinced that if NASA were to make a competition of it, they could manage a fixed-schedule and reasonable-budget option or two.

That said, this is something that should have been done years ago as a starting mission module for SLS. The problem is that the rocket has been the only thing and no-one has been talking seriously about near-term payloads up until quite recently.

ATV is ended, no?  IIRC, obsolescence was called out as a factor: the design was done long enough ago that many parts weren't being made anymore.

This is a big danger to a program like SLS, where, for budgetary reasons, hardware is being designed and built in serial.  Each piece looks to take 5-10 years to come to fruition.  By the time you get to step 4, the hardware you built in steps 1 and 2 is effectively obsolete.  This was a problem for STS at the end, and is a problem for the space suits now, and I suspect it will be a constant problem for SLS within 10 years.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #405 on: 05/12/2017 12:29 pm »
More news (bad, of course):
Quote
A Week Of Bad News For SLS
-- Keith Cowing
Quote
This is not going to position NASA in a good place. First they have big, chronic delays with the overall SLS program. Then the SLS software program is shown to be bogus. Then they have welding issues. Then they drop the LOX dome. Now there is no way to do EM-1 without money that will never be there. And even if the money was there the existing slip would simply be magnified by attempts to human-rate EM-1, bring Orion systems forward etc. There are not enough people or capacity to take the extra money even if it was there

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2017/05/a-week-of-bad-n.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nasawatch%2FAekt+%28NASA+Watch%29

Software 'bogus'?
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 12:31 pm by AncientU »
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #406 on: 05/12/2017 12:56 pm »
Plug it into a ATV or ESM instead of the Cygnus bus if you need more bang for your buck.

In the end, it's always a case of 'show me the money' but I'm convinced that if NASA were to make a competition of it, they could manage a fixed-schedule and reasonable-budget option or two.

That said, this is something that should have been done years ago as a starting mission module for SLS. The problem is that the rocket has been the only thing and no-one has been talking seriously about near-term payloads up until quite recently.

ATV is ended, no?  IIRC, obsolescence was called out as a factor: the design was done long enough ago that many parts weren't being made anymore.

This is a big danger to a program like SLS, where, for budgetary reasons, hardware is being designed and built in serial.  Each piece looks to take 5-10 years to come to fruition.  By the time you get to step 4, the hardware you built in steps 1 and 2 is effectively obsolete.  This was a problem for STS at the end, and is a problem for the space suits now, and I suspect it will be a constant problem for SLS within 10 years.

Isn't Orion service module ATV derived?
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #407 on: 05/12/2017 12:59 pm »
Isn't Orion service module ATV derived?

Yeah, that's why I mentioned the ESM as an alternative. You'd need to add an avionics module to fly the spacecraft, though.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #408 on: 05/12/2017 02:14 pm »
Teleconference:
Quote
NASA will provide an update on the status of Exploration Mission-1, the first integrated flight of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, during a media teleconference at 3 p.m. EDT today, May 12.
Quote
Listen to today’s media teleconference live online at: https://www.nasa.gov/live
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #409 on: 05/12/2017 02:35 pm »
Quote
NASA Study Warns Against Putting Crew On Huge Rocket’s First Flight

A review ordered by the Trump administration finds costs and scheduling problems.
by Justin Bachman
12 May 2017, 10:00 BST

A NASA working group has concluded after a two-month review that sending astronauts on the first flight of its massive new rocket wouldn’t be feasible due to the immense costs of safely accommodating a crew on the planned 2019 mission, the first step in America’s return to human space exploration.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-12/nasa-study-warns-against-putting-crew-on-huge-rocket-s-first-flight

Offline AncientU

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #410 on: 05/12/2017 03:05 pm »
So, is there an issue with the SLS software?????
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #411 on: 05/12/2017 03:08 pm »
Just saw this:

NASA Study Warns Against Putting Crew On Huge Rocket’s First Flight - Bloomberg

From the article, which is based on an anonymous source:

"A NASA working group has concluded after a two-month review that sending astronauts on the first flight of its massive new rocket wouldn’t be feasible due to the immense costs of safely accommodating a crew on the planned 2019 mission, the first step in America’s return to human space exploration."
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline jgoldader

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #412 on: 05/12/2017 03:11 pm »
So, is there an issue with the SLS software?????


Cowing has posted a couple of times over the last several months that the software for SLS is not in good shape, and that much functionality has been deferred to later releases.  If you dig around over there, you'll get a little more info, but there's not the solid kind of info you'd expect to find at, say, NSF L2.
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Offline ChrisC

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #413 on: 05/12/2017 03:16 pm »
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-holds-media-teleconference-today-on-exploration-mission-1-status

Quote
NASA Holds Media Teleconference Today on Exploration Mission-1 Status

NASA will provide an update on the status of Exploration Mission-1, the first integrated flight of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, during a media teleconference at 3 p.m. EDT today, May 12.

The call will stream live on NASA’s website.

The teleconference participants are:

    Acting NASA Administrator Robert Lightfoot
    Associate Administrator of NASA’s Human Explorations and Operations Mission Directorate William Gerstenmaier

Listen to today’s media teleconference live online at:

https://www.nasa.gov/live

Would someone PLEASE record this?  Historically, NASA makes it very difficult to listen to these after they happen.  This isn't a briefing on NASA TV and won't show up on Youtube.
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 03:17 pm by ChrisC »
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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #414 on: 05/12/2017 03:17 pm »
Just saw this:

NASA Study Warns Against Putting Crew On Huge Rocket’s First Flight - Bloomberg

From the article, which is based on an anonymous source:

"A NASA working group has concluded after a two-month review that sending astronauts on the first flight of its massive new rocket wouldn’t be feasible due to the inability to the immense costs of safely accommodateing a crew on the planned 2019 mission, the first step in America’s return to human space exploration."

Fixed that for them
They're just making sure that no means no. "It's not safe and to make it safe will cost billions so forget about it."

Seems like we should give NASA some props for coming to a sane conclusion.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #415 on: 05/12/2017 04:00 pm »
So long as the 9th Floor came to that conclusion from a safety and good management line of reasoning.  If they decided to fly crew on EM-1 for political reasons (and believed politics was more important than safety and/or management concerns), but Congress said no new money is available, then no cudo's are in order.  Congress would have (probably inadvertently) just saved NASA from an indefensible decision. 

We'll see how the 3PM statements from Gerst/Lightfoot spin the decision.
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Offline Proponent

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #416 on: 05/12/2017 04:14 pm »
[EDIT TL:DR He thinks $30Bn can get a flags & footprints mission to Mars with a Columbus module for living space and a Dragon 2 for the landing. 6 years because "America is better at sprints than marathons."   


In pursuance of this sites profanity policy I express polite skepticism of the suggested plan.

To add to the skepticism, let me point out that the launch costs of $10 billion or so strongly suggest that SLS would not be used.  Canning SLS would annoy, among others, Jeff Sessions, and that's not something Trump would do, especially not right now (IMHO, of course).

Offline edkyle99

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #417 on: 05/12/2017 04:19 pm »
Quote
NASA Study Warns Against Putting Crew On Huge Rocket’s First Flight

A review ordered by the Trump administration finds costs and scheduling problems.
by Justin Bachman
12 May 2017, 10:00 BST

A NASA working group has concluded after a two-month review that sending astronauts on the first flight of its massive new rocket wouldn’t be feasible due to the immense costs of safely accommodating a crew on the planned 2019 mission, the first step in America’s return to human space exploration.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-12/nasa-study-warns-against-putting-crew-on-huge-rocket-s-first-flight
Good news.  Common sense prevails somewhere.

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Offline jgoldader

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #418 on: 05/12/2017 04:42 pm »

Isn't Orion service module ATV derived?

Derived, absolutely.  But the OP seemed to suggest there was an ATV on the shelf, and there isn't.  I should have addressed that the SM *is* ATV-derived, thanks for calling me out on it.
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: SLS/Orion Crewed Flight Proposal for EM-1
« Reply #419 on: 05/12/2017 04:44 pm »
Isn't Orion service module ATV derived?

If by 'derived' you mean the same way that SLS is derived from Shuttle...  So the same contractors, but not as much hardware commonality as you would expect.
« Last Edit: 05/12/2017 04:47 pm by Lars-J »

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