Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 41866 times)

Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #20 on: 12/17/2016 08:17 PM »
Voted 12.

2016 showed they can do more than one launch per month when things go well, but from experience it's quite unlikely they will go a whole year without hitting some significant setbacks. Just how big the setbacks are is very uncertain, I wouldn't be surprised to see anything from 7 to 15.


Offline deadman719

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #21 on: 12/17/2016 08:48 PM »
I'm going with 12.

This a one up from what I thought last year. I'm hoping for more than 12 but feel it is a reasonable number that assumes delays. In my opinion, delays will result from getting 39A and 40 fully operational...call it teething pains. A very nice cadence should eventually be realized once the kinks are worked out.

At least one flight will be a FH mission.

Rob

 

Online pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #22 on: 12/17/2016 11:53 PM »
Going with 13 like last year.
The latest flow rate they had before AMOS-6 was good for more but then that probably contributed to the accident and they can't really afford another one so I don't see them becoming too aggressive with it.

Other then this year I do expect to see FH flying in 2017 (hey, that was one prediction I had right last year...).
Only one, though...
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 11:56 PM by pippin »

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #23 on: 12/18/2016 12:28 AM »
Voted 15
There are 34 launches on starhawk92's manifest with 2017 dates.
SpaceX doubled their record from 2013 in 2014.  My guess is that they will almost do it again.

Year          2012   2013  2014  2015   2016
Launches       2         3        6        7        8
Poll Mean    1.95   3.84   7.81   10.61  12.44
Failures         0         0        0        1        1

The group consensus has been pretty accurate when there were no launch failures.
(In 2013 a rocket was ready but launched just after the start of 2014.  The same thing happened the next year.  It should happen again this year.)

The past polls say that the mean of our guesses, fitted to a Gaussian distribution, will not change much after the first few dozen votes, and we have nearly a hundred already. 

The votes are hard to fit, being so spread out.  I still think the choices should be pairs (10-11, 12-13, 14-15 etc.) 

The preference for even numbers persists except those of us who maybe consciously chose and odd number after my comments. :P
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 12:29 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline MP99

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #24 on: 12/18/2016 10:23 AM »
I will be voting 15, including one FH.

I assume that LC-39A will be up and running very early in the year, and LC-40 in Q2.

Clearly, SpaceX need to demonstrate reliable operations - another failure so soon after the last one could be a real issue for them. So, I expect to see them concentrating on this, then a ramping up of flight rate through the year

They clearly need a major increase in launch rate (thus the vote for many more than last year), but I don't see them clearing their backlog. :-(

Cheers, Martin

Edit: now voted 15.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 06:43 PM by MP99 »

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #25 on: 12/18/2016 11:21 AM »
I'm going with the optimistic 18 with 6 flights from Vandy and 1 a month from the Cape. The two pads in action is what gets them to their highest launch cadence yet.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #26 on: 12/18/2016 12:40 PM »
27

Assuming there is not another launch failure a cadence of 2 peer month should be pretty easy over the 2 launch pads, then towards the end of the year they can increase launch frequency with pad 40 back in service.

Even with a launch failure they should make over 12 launches, it seems to me that any vote less than 13 is basically saying that SpaceX will fail, and fail big.

Offline strangequark

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #27 on: 12/18/2016 01:17 PM »
11 successful launches, based on demonstrated cadence. 1 failure, based on current rate of tribal knowledge loss. No Falcon Heavy, which will be OBE.
Don't flippantly discount the old rules of this industry. Behind each one lies a painful lesson learned from broken, twisted hardware. Learn those lessons, and respect the knowledge gained from them. Only then, see if you can write new rules that will meet those challenges.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #28 on: 12/18/2016 01:39 PM »
I went with 18. With one pad coming into service from the start of the year and the other being rebuilt probably by the end of Q2 that seems reasonable, given their third pad at Vandenberg and their backlog.

However this all goes out the window if they have another launch failure.  :(

How likely that is will depend on how much more science SX plan to learn from their F9, F9SR and FH  launches. We know cross feed is now off the table for early FH flights, so that's deemed a case of too much pain for too little gain. 

At this stage a conventionally run company would seek to minimize launch risk by freezing it's LV design and operations procedures completely. I don't think SX will do this. I suspect SX will become more cautious about how it manages testing new procedures and hardware. The question is will any request be refused if the worst case result is the rocket blows up and takes the payload with it? 

Time will tell. I thought given all the Grasshopper testing they would nail the first stage landing on the first go. That turned out to be  optimistic.

[EDIT interesting what most people reckon the likely number is ]
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 01:41 PM by john smith 19 »
"Solids are a branch of fireworks, not rocketry. :-) :-) ", Henry Spencer 1/28/11  Averse to bold? You must be in marketing."It's all in the sequencing" K. Mattingly.  STS-Keeping most of the stakeholders happy most of the time.

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #29 on: 12/18/2016 06:32 PM »
21-25, because I'm an optimist, and because with the spotting of a core at McGregor, 1 at VAFB, 1 at the Cape, and the plan to reuse a stage for SES-10, that makes the next 4 cores backlogged. It is looking like they may be payload integration time and range availability limited this year.

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #30 on: 12/18/2016 06:58 PM »
I went with 8, i had been overly optimistic in the past. Hoping for more,  but trying to be realistic. Also don't see falcon heavy flying this year either. C'mon space x prove me wrong

Offline mheney

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #31 on: 12/18/2016 07:49 PM »
I went optimistic - 2+/month once they get going put me at 21-25.


Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #32 on: 12/18/2016 08:03 PM »
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.

Offline shm6666

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #33 on: 12/18/2016 08:11 PM »
Im going for 10 this time around. I hope we will see a Falcon Heavy, I think no failure but turnaround times and schedule difficulties will keep SpaceX busy.

But lets face it, if they do 10 launches, that is a huge success!

Offline high road

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #34 on: 12/18/2016 10:15 PM »
14, or once per month + a few extra. Including a failed FH launch. Because first times, you know how they are. And assuming they finally freeze the design of F9 until their backlog is reasonable.

Offline Elvis in Space

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #35 on: 12/18/2016 10:26 PM »
I'm going for 14 because that's what I predicted for 2016. If they don't hit at least that I shall predict it again next  year. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
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Online pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #36 on: 12/18/2016 11:58 PM »
Only a broken clock is ever _really_ correct...

Offline Danderman

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #37 on: 12/19/2016 04:01 AM »
8 launches, with 7 good and 1 not so good.

I should add that I have been very close to being on the mark for the last 2 years, and I always guess a lower number than most.

« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 07:24 PM by Danderman »

Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #38 on: 12/19/2016 08:19 AM »
On my 2017 predictions post, I said >10, though 12 is what I think is most likely. I wouldn't be horribly surprised if they got more than 15 flights in.

Things that could slow them down:
1- RTF after the Amos-6 pad failure
2- Aren't they transitioning to a new (and supposedly final) version of Falcon 9?
3- Getting Pad 39 up and running and pad 40 restored
4- Getting reused cores flying
5- Too many other major side projects on their plate (Falcon Heavy, Commercial Crew, Raptor/ITS, etc, etc)

I honestly hope that SpaceX can make it through 2017 without any failures.

~Jon

Offline pikawaka

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #39 on: 12/19/2016 01:03 PM »
I'm going with 17. 7 from Vandenberg and 10 from KSC seems doable if there are no failures. 3 of the KSC launches will be with "flight proven" rockets. Falcon Heavy will finally get off the ground this year. No failures this year, SpaceX will be on their toes with QA after 2 failures in 2 years.

Tags: range