- State of the art in deep space chemical propulsion will remain pressure-fed hypergolic, hydrazine biprops for about 50 years now
US* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017* ULA announces at least one commercial contractEuropean* Arianespace have no launch failures* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plansRussia* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2016* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year* Proton has no complete failuresChina* China has one launch failure in 2016, without major effect* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is succesful * The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year* KZ-11 flies successfullyInternational* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully * The Indian crewed program is formally authorised* India has more launches than in any previous year, again* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight* All VEX launches are successful* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attemptMisc* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures
(I think you may have slipped a year starting with Russia...)
4. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to LEO and returns it safely.
6. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.
Still lots of "fluffy" predictions in this thread. Not a lot of substance, how about some definitive statements?For example: There'll be X launches this year Company X will experience a failure with rocket B Statements like "SpaceX will launch more than three rockets" is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will launch 3 rockets is a definitive prediction IMHO SpaceX is 30% likely to fail is not much of a prediction. SpaceX will fail is quite a predictionAnother example: Comments like "Chandra will continue investigating X-ray sources" is hugely fluffy.Now that wasn't meant to be snarky or offensive to anyone's post. It's about being less fluffy. Some people have come up with some really good predictions over the last few yearsNow for the snark....A prediction of "A Proton launch will fail this year" is not much of a prediction (I hope that's wrong BTW)
X37 lands in June
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com100 successful orbital launches worldwide10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIOElon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systemsNo launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)X37 lands in JuneAnother X37 launches before EOYTrump funds an outer planets mission
OK, Let's start with the traditional predictions thread Here I go first. I remind that my comments are only opinions and interpretations about current trends in space exploration:1. Blue Origin will send a man to space, effectivelly becoming the first US company after the shuttle era to achieve a piloted mission2. SpaceX will give up on sending people to space in 2017, first manned flight will eventually slip to 20183. China will launch Chang-e sample return Moon mission and it will be successful.4. There will possibly be another failure of a Proton-M or Soyuz rocket5. Orion/SLS won't be canceled under a Trump administration. 6. NASA will officially be transitioned for a return to the Moon 7. More delays for Falcon 9 Heavy, it may slip to 2018 which means that SpaceX will give up on a mission to Mars in 2018 too (it will slip to 2020)8. ExoMars - TGO will complete successful aerobraking, will start main science mission in the end of the year as espected9. SpaceShipTwo Unity will make several gliding tests, no powered flights in 2017.10. Eight launches for Falcon 9.
SpaceX reaches orbit 14, count'em, 14 times, including 2 Falcon Heavy launches.
SpaceX lands and recovers 2/3 of the stages they try to.
More evidence of a subsurface ocean on Pluto
More methane is found on Mars, which leads to speculation of life being there, but it will turn out to be more likely a geological source.
More evidence that Proxima Centauri b is an ocean planet.
Two more "Earth analogues", or earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are found, both within 20 light years.
More tension with Russia leads to more tension using Russian rockets to launch American and European astronauts to the space station.
Blue origin does another successful test of a launch abort system.
10 F9 launches, 1 FH. EM-1 slips to 2019ITS slips to 2026Atlas V launch failureF9 does not have a failure in 2017#JourneyToMars is redirected to a #JourneyBackToTheMoon under trump
Quote from: DatUser14 on 12/12/2016 03:35 pm...ITS slips to 2026......correct ...
...ITS slips to 2026...
Quote from: vapour_nudge on 12/12/2016 09:59 pmI suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com100 successful orbital launches worldwide10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIOElon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systemsNo launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)X37 lands in JuneAnother X37 launches before EOYTrump funds an outer planets missionThis was so dismal it appears I only got one right. (Two were tongue in cheek)If we could unlike a post then I’d unlike it
And one was impossible: Trump funds an outer planets missionThe President can't fund anything, Congress controls spending. The closest you could possibly have come to that was that Trump's budget included such a mission, but Congress actually controls the purse. Presidential budgets are just hopeful guidelines.
Predictions for 2017- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence. (Poll for number is open and here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
- SpaceX will recover at least 80% of the cores they attempt to recover
- FH will launch
- LC40 will return to service
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)
- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur
- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times and at least one of them will be with paying cargo
- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least twice. At least one launch will be a success.
- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts
1. Though lots of chatter & under review, SLS & Orion not yet cancelled by 2017 endHIT 1.02. ARM cancelledMISS 0.0I don't think it's formally cancelled. Could be wrong.3. FH finally flies! but in the 2nd half of 2017MISS 0.0LUCY PULLS THE FOOTBALL AWAY FROM LINUS AGAIN!!!4. F9 has no launch (or static test) RUDs + greatly increased launch cadenceHIT 1.05. Recovered coreS make F9 flightSHIT 1.06. Physics & astrophysics place further constraints on what constitutes Dark Matter; cracks widen in DM theoryMISS 0.0SOME MINOR SCIENTIFIC CHATTER BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE I THOUGHT7. No readily verifiable demo of any EM driveHIT 1.08. No SETI signal receivedHIT 1.09. BO makes additional flights, but no crewed flights in 2017ONE FLIGHT, SO 0.510. JWST continues per scheduleMISS 0.011. No exo-moons detectedMISS 0.0POSSIBLE DETECTION12. No Google Lunar prize winnerHIT 1.013. No Planet 9 discoveryHIT 1.014. Virgin Galactic makes a powered test flightMISS 0.015. ITER continues to suck up moneyHIT 1.0ADDED16. SpaceX reveals their space suit designHIT 1.0
Predictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6
Quote from: Lar on 12/14/2017 05:50 amHow'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of yearQuote from: Lar on 12/15/2016 10:09 pmPredictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6What? How are we close to a full duration firing of a flight Raptor? All we know is that they have been testing the dev Raptor for about a year. Flight Raptor testing could still be a year or more away.
How'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of yearQuote from: Lar on 12/15/2016 10:09 pmPredictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6
Hopefully I'm wrong on some of these, but here we go:
Orbital:- Russia will continue to have problems with reliability and will lose another Progress and/or Proton.
- SLS will be cancelled like all of the shuttle derived vehicles before it. It will be replaced by a shuttle derived vehicle.
- Rocket Lab will launch Electron at least twice, but will lose one vehicle.
- Virgin will unveil Launcher One hardware, but no flights.
- The SpaceX Dragon 2 test flight will slip to Q4 2017 2018.
- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not until Q4. It will be awesome.
- SpaceX will refly a booster, but none will be reflown twice.
Suborbital:- EXOS will fly to space and land succesfully.
- Virgin will do one SS2 powered flight near the end of the year.
- Blue will do 12 flights, demonstrate a 24 hour turnaround, and fly people.
- High altitude balloon "suborbital tourism" flights will start carrying people.
- Masten will demonstrate the cradle landing that they have long alluded to.
- XCOR will still be around doing cool stuff.
OK here's my attempt at predictions for 2017:1. SpaceX reaches 10 or more launches (the thinking goes that as they plug past failures, the system will become more reliable). 2. SpaceX suffers another failure with F9 around Q4 2017.3. Falcon Heavy launches in Q4 2017.4. Cannae's experimental satellite featuring EMDrive propulsion technology launches in 2017. 5. Cannae's proprietary EMDrive technology proves to work in the vacuum of space finally putting to rest the skepticism about the technology.6. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to *LEO and returns it safely in Q2 2017. * CORRECTION: BO rocket to sub-orbit - not LEO7. 12 years after its inception, Virgin Galactic is still not able to conduct a manned sub-orbital test flight in 2017.8. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.9. in 2017 no one is still able to figure out what's causing Tabby's Star's strange dips in brightness. The mystery continues.10. Roger Sawyer is nominated for Nobel in Physics for EMDrive technology (even though the scientific community is not on the same page about how the drive actually works.)11. Donald Trump defunds NASA's earth Science. There is an exodus of earth scientists at NASA.12. SpaceX unveils it's spacesuit in 2017. 13. SpaceX unveils a mockup, and more details about ITS in 2017.
SpaceX:-11 SpaceX missions including one Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy fails on first launch. WRONG - an impressive 18- Test satelites for the commsat constellation program hitch a ride on a Falcon Heavy launch. WRONG, FH didn't launch and test sats are going with PAZ on a regular F9.- 8 out of 11 missions have succesful landings. WRONG - All 14 attempts successful. 4 launches where no attempt- Unmanned Dragon 2 mission delayed to 2018. Correct- SpaceX will be quiet about ITS with new information coming out in drips over the year WRONG - sudden reveal of a new BFR.Rocket Lab:-First flight fails. Correct -At least 5 flights this year including 3 test flights. WRONG - 1 attempt in 2017Blue Origin- Succesful test program for BE4. It is picked for ULA's Vulcan. Mixed - A succesful test fire of BE-4, a power pack explosion. ULA are as of yet undecided- New Sheppard has the first succesful manned flights by the middle of the year WRONG- New Sheppard has at least 8 flights in 2017. Super Wrong - 1 test flight of new capsule- More details of New Glenn are unveiled. Correct - Many details where revelead including moving straight to 7 metre fairings - Plans for an additional launch site are unveiled. Wrong Virgin Galactic- SS2 has one powered suborbital flight by the years end. No accidents. Mixed - Glide tests, No accidents. No powered Flights - LauncherOne becomes the main focus of the company. Mixed - LauncherOne spun off into new company Virgin OrbitGoogle X-Prize- One attempt this year. It will fail on landing. Wrong Russia-Their space program detriorates further in this year and they lose two boosters. Mixed - 1 launch failure. Angosat in trouble -There is an in flight launch abort for an ISS mission. Wrong - No one dies but it causes a change in US policy. Wrong -Both Orion/SLS and Commercial Crew get a substantial shot in the arm, with increased budgets. Wrong -NASA is made investigate putting Orion on an EELV. Mixed- I heard there was a study done for this in 2017 but not sure-The use of Shenzhou for ISS flights is seriously investigated. Wrong -ESA consider moving ExoMars to Ariane 5. Wrong ESA-A pretty much flawless year of missions for Arianespace and ESA. Correct-They gain a mission due to another country experiencing a launch failure. Wrong - Pressure builds on Europe over the long term future of Ariane 6 due to its lack of reusability. Mixed- Some notional programs to implement it are raised but not at the funding stage yet. Wrong - Minor Programs under way and funded to study it - ESA floats the Moon Village concept but will wait until the Trump space policy emerges before pushing in any particular direction. Mixed - Trump space policy was revealed very late in the year but Moon Village has gained some momentum NASA-NASA has a year of flawless missions but will be in a state of flux due to the incoming administration. Correct - Specatular missions all round, no new administrator yet and agency in flux awaiting new policy to be implemented- There will be a pivot back towards doing a Lunar mission with a mix of commercial and SLS/Orion. Correct- A demonstration Lunar Orbital Habitat gains funding. Wrong Firefly- The company winds up by the end of the year, selling its physical and intellectual assets. Correct - However like a Phoenix in the flames it was reborn in the course of the year which was amazing to see China-One launch failure Mixed - One launch failure, one partial failure - a tremendous 2017 of firsts in the Chinese Space Program Correct - Quantum satellites, Tianzhou refueling demos - Tianzhou is successful Correct - Chang'e 5 sample return is succesful. Wrong - never launched due to CZ5 failure earlier in year -In 2017, they fly the most missions of any country in the world. Wrong - in 3rd place behind Russia and USA - China will make moves to aqcuire space technology from sanction laden Russia such as RD-180 engines. Correct - cooperation agreements signed on thisSkylon/Britain-Reaction Engines get a boost from the British Government to develop Sabre. Wrong - I'm not aware of any additional funding boost in 2017 -The Brexit pushes the UK into using spaceflight as a nationalistic symbol of their capability on the global stage. -Efforts are ramped up to develop a space port. Correct - I believe it even ended up mentioned in The Queen's speechIran-They have a single successful launch. Wrong - a failed launch -Work on a booster in the same capability range as Vega begins Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet -Plans for a Soyuz class booster in the late 2020s begin Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet Turkey-Turkey begins efforts to develop independent access to space similar to Israel. Wrong JapanA succesful year with no failures. Wrong - Test of the smallest orbital rocket ever fails -Japan waits for the outcome of the NASA transition before realigning its space policy. Mixed - NASA still early in transition ULA-ULA picks BE4 for Vulcan. Wrong - Nothing picked yet -They push hard for distributed launch in 2017 as a solution for a Moon program. Mixed - Idea of putting Bigelow Habitat in Lunar Orbit using DL was advertised-ACES engine remains undecided Correct-The idea of converting ACES/Centaur into a Moon lander is floated. Mixed - Was mentioned in the year but has been in previous yeas -They pick up an additional Atlas V launch due to someone else having a failure. Wrong
1. Mike Griffin is not nominated as NASA Administrator, but someone similar to him in goals is.There is no new NASA Administrator as of 12/27/2017, so I'm right on the first count, and wrong on the second.2. FH flies at least twice. F9 flies at least 12 times.Wrong on the first, right on the second.3. Proton suffers a launch failure. Some time afterward, Russia will announce a project to build an interstellar starship (somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but I do expect some kind of unrealistic goal they have no intention of meeting). No, but a Soyuz failed, and a Russian-built satellite was lost shortly after launch. Still giving myself a 0 here.4. ULA launches all payloads essentially flawlessly. Yes.5. Chang'e 5 returns samples from the Moon. To the disappointment of American space buffs, this does not trigger any apparent reaction in Congress or the Executive Branch.No.6. Planet 9 is discovered.Nope7. NASA announces the next Discovery mission in January. Venus is the target.NopeEDIT: According to the NASA Discovery Mission 2015 thread, I'm already wrong on the first count. As to the second...8. NASA keeps #JourneyToMars as its stated goal, but a lunar proving ground is worked in somehow. This may take the form of an LLO space station rather than a surface base, however. Given the increasing prominence of DSG, I think I can call this correct. 9. Full 3.5 MN Raptor test fire.Nope10. EM-1 slips to early 2019. No--it's late 2019/2020 now.
I like the idea of BO being first back to space next year (although: "space", and yes, we will get a few more tweets from Elon telling us the difference between space and orbit). I think Bezos will push for that. And we will all be delighted!I think FH will not fly 2017. At some point in early summer, Elon will announce that the inaugural flight of FH will be the Red Dragon flight in 2018, says that priority is on avoiding further scheduling slips for F9 customers. F9 will do a record number of flights, 12 would be my guess but wouldn't be surprised if it was more (up to 16?). Crew Dragon unmanned flight test will happen in early December. Dream Chaser flies again!Trump Administration sets up review board for ARM, SLS, Orion. Board recommends to end ARM (but keep SEP elements for a general-purpose deep space tug), and to keep SLS and Orion for now, but EM-1 as planned now (2018) is canceled and only the EUS-variant (1B Crew/Cargo) of the SLS will be developed (it also gets a name in the process), EM-1 rescheduled for 2020 or so, to be followed in 2022 by EM-2 (manned). Keep Mars as a long-term goal (we will soon see the first manned NASA landing pushed officially to the 2040ies), but "proving ground" strategy around the Moon (also with an eye towards China) fleshed out in more detail (including commercial resupply of the lunar orbital habitat).More Russian mishaps. More Chinese sucesses (including launch of Tianzhou, the first chinese space station re-supply ship, and Chang-E 5, the latter towards the end of the year).More discoveries in the outer solar system in support of the Planet Nine hypothesis (whether that means I think they will find it, I leave that up to you to decide ).Planet around one of the main Centauri stars found. Its a rocky world too hot for life.
Quote from: Bynaus on 12/13/2016 07:53 amI like the idea of BO being first back to space next year (although: "space", and yes, we will get a few more tweets from Elon telling us the difference between space and orbit). I think Bezos will push for that. And we will all be delighted!I think FH will not fly 2017. At some point in early summer, Elon will announce that the inaugural flight of FH will be the Red Dragon flight in 2018, says that priority is on avoiding further scheduling slips for F9 customers. F9 will do a record number of flights, 12 would be my guess but wouldn't be surprised if it was more (up to 16?). Crew Dragon unmanned flight test will happen in early December. Dream Chaser flies again!Trump Administration sets up review board for ARM, SLS, Orion. Board recommends to end ARM (but keep SEP elements for a general-purpose deep space tug), and to keep SLS and Orion for now, but EM-1 as planned now (2018) is canceled and only the EUS-variant (1B Crew/Cargo) of the SLS will be developed (it also gets a name in the process), EM-1 rescheduled for 2020 or so, to be followed in 2022 by EM-2 (manned). Keep Mars as a long-term goal (we will soon see the first manned NASA landing pushed officially to the 2040ies), but "proving ground" strategy around the Moon (also with an eye towards China) fleshed out in more detail (including commercial resupply of the lunar orbital habitat).More Russian mishaps. More Chinese sucesses (including launch of Tianzhou, the first chinese space station re-supply ship, and Chang-E 5, the latter towards the end of the year).More discoveries in the outer solar system in support of the Planet Nine hypothesis (whether that means I think they will find it, I leave that up to you to decide ).Planet around one of the main Centauri stars found. Its a rocky world too hot for life.BO sending people to space - nope. No FH - yep. FH inaugural flight = Red Dragonn - nope. F9 record number of flights - yep.(up to 16) - yep. yay!Crew Dragon unmanned test in December - nope.Dream Chaser - yep.SLS rescheduled for 2020 - certainly looks like it now. I count this as yep.Proving ground around the moon, commercial resupply for lunar orbital habitat - yep.Russian mishaps - one mishap, not mishaps - mixed.China successes, incluing Tianzhou and Chang'E 5 - mixed (yep and nope).More support for Planet Nine, but also some works speaking against it - mixed. Alpha Centauri planet - nope. So, out of 13 claims, 4 nope, 3 mixed, 6 yep. Okay, but compatible with luck.
FH will make it on to the pad but not launch (shades of F9 at the Cape in 2009).SpaceX achieve 10 or 11 launches. Taking thing cautiously after the two failures.More Raptor demo test firings, but still subscale.Test ITS composite Lox tank not yet successfully demonstrated with full cryo load.Another good year for ULA, with new commercial contracts for Atlas V and no failures to deliver a payload to required orbit.Hard to say what the new administration will do. I could see something big and controversial affecting a big project (JWST, SLS, Orion). Anything related to climate change is at risk.
Launch Vehicles:Falcon 9 will launch 12±2 times. (I'm predicting delays, but not another CRS-7 or AMOS-6)At least one booster reflown in the second half of the year.Falcon Heavy will be delayed until 2018.SpaceShipTwo will not break the Kármán line before October 4th, and will not carry tourists on any flight. I (like many other people) will make sarcastic comments.
Policy:NASA is officially refocused on Moon instead of Mars (or an asteroid). Meanwhile, robots continue to constitute the bulk of space exploration.
Science robots:NEOWISE ends due to passive cooling becoming increasingly untenable.Cassini will collide with Saturn on September 15. The last few minutes of data won't show anything exciting about the atmosphere, sadly.OSIRIS-REx will perform a close flyby of a very large rock on September 17. Too large to grab a sample, really.TESS's launch date gets pushed to January 2018.
Other:1-2 GLXP teams launch. Any teams using all-new rockets experience launch failures, the rest contend with probe failures that shorten mission lifetimes. No one wins. (I hope I'm wrong on this one)
edit: forgot. August 21, 2017 will be a remarkably cloudy day in the US.
30% chance of another F9 failure.10% chance of ULA failure.SpaceX at least equals ULA for launch rate, 60% chance.US launches more than any other country.At least 90 global launches.Falcon Heavy launches.Reused booster(s) launch.
I'll make a few predictions, in no particular order. Note these are predictions, not always what I *want* to see happen, but what I think is most likely.1- SpaceX will return to flight successfully, and finally break 10 flights this year. Falcon Heavy will make it to the pad, but might not fly. They won't lose another flight outright this year, but something will happen that will keep them from getting more than say 15 flights. They will successfully refly at least one booster, and recover many more boosters. SpaceX will formally slip their first Red Dragon flight to the next Mars window after 2018.
2- ULA will keep plugging along, with no outright failures. They'll announce their Vulcan propulsion choice before the summer, and I'm guessing it'll be BE-4. They'll make at least one RapidLaunch sale for a commercial satellite launch that will fly in 2017.
3- Blue Origin will fly at least half a dozen successful unmanned New Shephard flights in 2017, including at least 2-3 with paying research customers. They will successfully get to a full-throttle, full-duration BE-4 test before the end of the year.
4- RocketLabs will successfully fly their Electron vehicle in Q1 or Q2, and will have at least 3-4 successful flights this year. They'll also have at least one failure or flight anomaly though.
5- VG will get back into powered flight testing of SS2 before the end of the year, but not commercial service. LauncherOne will make at least a captive carry test of a flight article by the end of the year, but will not do a full orbital flight by the end of the year, though they'll be close. (Once again, I hope I'm being pessimistic).
6- DARPA will pick Boeing for XS-1 in spite of how things went with ALASA, and will end up regretting it. (I hope I'm wrong here--I'd much rather see Masten get it)
7- XCOR will still be not dead, and may make progress on a few fronts, but will not have Lynx flying, and probably won't have wings on it by the end of the year. Though they may have a hot-fire test of a full-scale RL-10 class LOX/LH2 thrust chamber (not necessarily with a fully integrated power head).
8- Masten will also not be dead, in spite of not winning XS-1. They'll continue to do flights of Xodiac and Xaero-B, and will have at least one impressive big step for the year -- either a successful landing cradle landing, or a high altitude flight with aerodynamic drag flaps used for steering during recovery.
9- Trump will nominate Mike Griffin for NASA Administrator (this is one I really hope is wrong).
10- ARM gets canceled.
11- NASA gets redirected in a more Return to the Moon fashion. But still isn't given a big enough budget to do things the way Congress will force them to do things.
12- At least one of the Megaconstellation players (OneWeb, SpaceX, or Boeing) will announce having raised enough money to launch at least an initial constellation that is at least 1/4 the size of their final proposed constellation. At least one of the players will launch one or more "pathfinder" spacecraft.
13- No ISS cargo vehicles will be lost in 2017.
14- NASA will not cancel SLS or Orion in 2017.
15- At least one more potentially earthlike exoplanet (somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5x earth mass, in the habitable zone) will be found around a star within 20LY of Earth.
16- There will be at least one major space debris event this year (either a close call with the ISS that requires moving the astronauts into a Soyuz, or a collision that generates at least 100 new pieces of trackable debris). Governments still won't take the threat seriously.
US* Falcon Heavy flies towards the end of the year Nope* SpaceX completes between 10 and 14 orbital launches Nope* SS2 has powered flight before the end of the year Nope. Not doing great so far.* The New Glenn capsule will be revealed, either as a mock up or a test article Nope* Be-4 is fired at full scale and is formally selected for Vulcan Nope* OrbATK NGLV gets the formal go-ahead for development Nope* Another LV project with Blue Origin engines is announced Nope* Both SLS and Orion survive 2017 Yes* ULA announces at least one commercial contract Yes, the peregrine lunar missionEuropean* Arianespace have no launch failures Yes* The first firm orders for Ariane 6 launches are filed Yes* Arianespace releases more details on micro-launcher plans Not much, but yesRussia* Russia (either ILS or government) suffers the first launch failure of 2017 Nope* Zenit succesfully launches Angosat, but no more contracts are signed before the end of the year I'd say yes. S7 announced missions, but with no payloads...* Proton has no complete failures YesChina* China has one launch failure in 2017, without major effect Nope* The Chang'e 5 mission flies and is successful Nope* The full-scale next-gen crew capsule is revelaed, but does not fly before the end of the year Nope* KZ-11 flies successfully NopeInternational* GSLV Mk.3 flies successfully Yes* The Indian crewed program is formally authorised Nope* India has more launches than in any previous year, again Nope* Iran and North Korea both make one orbital flight Nope* All VEX launches are successful Nope* By the end of the year, Brazil are not appreciably closer to orbital flight than at the start Yes* Electron reaches orbit, but not on the first attempt NopeMisc* Total orbital launch attempts for the year are between 90 and 105 Yes, by a hair.* No GLXP team reaches the lunar surface Yes* Successful flight numbers show a US>China>Russia pattern Nope* There are less than five launch failures, including partial failures Nope