Author Topic: FAILURE: Gaofen-10 (GF-10) - CZ-4C - TSLC - August 31, 2016 (18:55 UTC)  (Read 28869 times)

Offline beidou

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« Last Edit: 09/01/2016 10:40 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »

Online russianhalo117

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Re: Gaofen-10 (GF-10) - CZ-4B - TSLC - 2016
« Reply #1 on: 07/08/2016 05:45 PM »
The launch processing team has set out to the launch site.


There was a now deleted photo posted on a forum showing SAST engineers standing in front of the Shanghai train station heading for some unknown launch site, with a banner that reads "Gaofen 10 satellite testing team".  ;)

So yeah, there should be a GF-10 heading up in the next 2-3 months.  ;)
So your thinking possibly the following from JSLC or TSLC:
2016
September or October - CZ-4B - TSLC, LC9 - GF-10 Gaofen-10
OR
September or October - CZ-2D - JSLC, LC43/603 - GF-10 Gaofen-10

Offline beidou

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Online Galactic Penguin SST

Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)

A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016

Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.  ;)
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline input~2

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Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)

A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016

Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.  ;)
Well, this fairing drop zone (in red) seems close to the fairing drop zone for CZ-4C used for FY-3B (in green)
Fairing for CZ-2C (used for YG-18) was recovered to the South
« Last Edit: 08/24/2016 04:22 PM by input~2 »

Online russianhalo117

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Well, it looks like that this one is launching on August 30 GMT time...... (wee hours of the night on the 31st local time)

A2154/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 30 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 30 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 24 AUG 07:37 2016

Can someone check what launcher does this drop zone corresponds to? There are rumors that a CZ-2C will be used.  ;)
Well, this fairing drop zone (in red) seems close to the fairing drop zone for CZ-4C used for FY-3B (in green)
Fairing for CZ-2C (used for YG-18) was recovered to the South
red?? it looks brown to me

Offline tehwkd

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OOh, pretty colors!

YELLOW GF10/?
GREEN GF8/4b
PURPLE YG-14/4b
BLUE GF-3/4c
OLIVE FY-3b/4c
BLACK FY-3C/4c
RED Chuang Xin-3, Shiyan-7 and Shijian-15/4c
« Last Edit: 08/26/2016 03:04 PM by tehwkd »
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Offline input~2

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Thanks tehwkd, so apparently it looks more like 4C that 4B...

Offline tehwkd

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A2189/16 - A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY: N302834E1090528-N302143E1094207-N292852E1092859-N293535E1085237 BACK TO START. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. GND - UNL, 31 AUG 18:46 2016 UNTIL 31 AUG 19:11 2016. CREATED: 29 AUG 03:08 2016

Looks like date change, coordbox&time are same as old


Also, I'm guessing T-0 is closer to 1853 UTC because GF-3, FY-3C & Chuang Xin-3 that all launched on 4C had a 7ish min difference between notam start & T-0.
« Last Edit: 08/29/2016 03:30 AM by tehwkd »
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Offline Satori

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Any idea of what kind of bird this might be?

Online Galactic Penguin SST

With the launch time at around 3 am here I can't guarantee that I can be awake at launch time, so someone please take a look at the usual Chinese news websites after 19:30 UTC if you can.  ;)
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Offline Chris Bergin

With the launch time at around 3 am here I can't guarantee that I can be awake at launch time, so someone please take a look at the usual Chinese news websites after 19:30 UTC if you can.  ;)

No sleep till MECO, GP! ;)

Offline input~2

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The new generation TTC ship Yuanwang is standing by for operation

Offline Satori

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We are now waiting from news coming from Taiyuan....

Offline Satori

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Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.

Offline Chris Bergin

Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.

Wonder if it got delayed. No locals talking about Earthquakes I take it? That's usually a sign ;)

Offline Nordren

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Two hours after the expected launch time and still no news.

Wonder if it got delayed. No locals talking about Earthquakes I take it? That's usually a sign ;)

Nowt on Weibo. And Xichang is the one that's good value for startled locals :)

Offline jcm

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... and no new launches in the TLEs, at least so far.
-----------------------------

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http://planet4589.org

Offline Satori

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On 9ifly space forum, people are talking about some kind of problem with the rocket. But it looks like there was no launch. Automatic translation doesn't help much in this case.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

On 9ifly space forum, people are talking about some kind of problem with the rocket. But it looks like there was no launch. Automatic translation doesn't help much in this case.

All are speculations and not rumors. I doubt we will know whatever happened to it until those who know speaks out.  :-X
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

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It looks like the launch was delayed (because of some problem with the launcher?)

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Checking Weibo, one insider has just posted several tweets that indicated that something has happened to this launch, but it's not clear whether that means a scrub or failed en route. Either way, this launch isn't our imagination.  :-X
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Offline tehwkd

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From 9ifly:

Shaanxi Public Security
7 minutes ago from 360 secure browser
# # [Shaanxi security satellite wreckage recovered] September 1, issued by a satellite launch base in the territory of the County of Shangluo Mountain satellite fall, Hill County Public Security Bureau verses Paul Squadron accompanied the launch base personnel to do the work of recovery of satellite wreckage, climb slopes the successful completion of satellite wreckage recovery tasks.
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Online Galactic Penguin SST

From 9ifly:

Shaanxi Public Security
7 minutes ago from 360 secure browser
# # [Shaanxi security satellite wreckage recovered] September 1, issued by a satellite launch base in the territory of the County of Shangluo Mountain satellite fall, Hill County Public Security Bureau verses Paul Squadron accompanied the launch base personnel to do the work of recovery of satellite wreckage, climb slopes the successful completion of satellite wreckage recovery tasks.

So it is apparent that the launch did took place.....

No signs of any new things in orbit?
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Offline tehwkd

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« Last Edit: 09/01/2016 06:08 AM by tehwkd »
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Offline input~2

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No TLEs published so far

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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That second photo looks like the top of the first stage.

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau_det/cz-4c.htm
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Offline input~2

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The location of debris recovery in Shanyang county is coherent with CZ-4C 1st stage debris

Offline Satori

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No TLEs and no launch announcement... Looks like the first launch failure of 2016.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

No TLEs and no launch announcement... Looks like the first launch failure of 2016.

....and half a day later it seems like the Chinese simply swept it under the rug as if nothing has happened (in 2009/11/13 they at least did acknowledge within 7 hours). That's very bad precedence...... :-X

Remember anything else other than a third stage problem will directly impact TG-2 and SZ-11's schedule, just like what happened 5 years ago. They will have to explain later anyway so why?
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline input~2

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Doesn't seem to have been a 1st stage problem since the debris were recovered where they were expected

Online Galactic Penguin SST

http://www.chinaspaceflight.com/satellite/Gaofen/GF-10/GF10-launch.html claims a 18:55 UTC launch time. I'm not sure what's the source, or whether the photos on that page are from this launch.
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Offline astropl

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http://www.chinaspaceflight.com/satellite/Gaofen/GF-10/GF10-launch.html claims a 18:55 UTC launch time.

Google translation:

Satellite score on the 10th at 2:55 on September 1, 2016, by the four C march off from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center. Not orbit failure

A rocket work

2016 The first global launch failure.
« Last Edit: 09/01/2016 10:05 AM by astropl »
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Offline linxiaoyi

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http://www.chinaspaceflight.com/satellite/Gaofen/GF-10/GF10-launch.html claims a 18:55 UTC launch time. I'm not sure what's the source, or whether the photos on that page are from this launch.

here the source
http://photo.cncnews.cn/2016-09-01/124459218.html
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Offline linxiaoyi

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still no official announcement
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Offline linxiaoyi

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http://www.chinaspaceflight.com/satellite/Gaofen/GF-10/GF10-launch.html claims a 18:55 UTC launch time. I'm not sure what's the source, or whether the photos on that page are from this launch.

here the source
http://photo.cncnews.cn/2016-09-01/124459218.html

only launch photos

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Offline linxiaoyi

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There are some rumors, YF40 restart failed
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Offline input~2

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Doesn't seem to have been a 1st stage problem since the debris were recovered where they were expected
Looking closer, there is a minimum distance of 18 km between Shanyang county (where this CZ-4C 1st stage debris were recovered) and locations where 1st stages for past successful CZ-4C launches where recovered (i.e. YZ-15 & YG-27)
Not sure if this is significant...

Offline input~2

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Sounds like the actual 1st stage drop area was not part of the pre-announced potential drop areas
http://china.caixin.com/2016-09-01/100984300.html

Offline input~2

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Expected launch mission codename was 05-53

Offline input~2

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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm

Offline edkyle99

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This apparent failure would end a string of 65 consecutive orbital launch successes world-wide since early December, 2015.  The previous long success string was 69 successes during 1988-89, as best I can determine.

That explosion at Cape Canaveral this morning also served notice that success remains fleeting in this business.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/01/2016 04:41 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline JimO

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Sounds like the actual 1st stage drop area was not part of the pre-announced potential drop areas
http://china.caixin.com/2016-09-01/100984300.html

With the story at 16:30 local, and the photos looking like about noon, the timeline is plausible.

Offline JimO

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I'm not sure what's the source, or whether the photos on that page are from this launch.

Very prudent skepticism!

Offline William Graham

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This apparent failure would end a string of 65 consecutive orbital launch successes world-wide since early December, 2015.  The previous long success string was 69 successes during 1988-89, as best I can determine.

That explosion at Cape Canaveral this morning also served notice that success remains fleeting in this business.

 - Ed Kyle

There are two caveats on that string of successes: The North Korean launch earlier this year was reported to have underperformed and left the payload tumbling; and I'm not sure it was conclusively confirmed that the Iranian launch in April was a suborbital test and not a failed orbital attempt (although the former does seem far more likely).

Online Galactic Penguin SST

30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......

I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever. :-X
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline Chris Bergin

30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......

I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever. :-X

Offline pippin

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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm

So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??

Offline edkyle99

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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm

So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones. 

 - Ed Kyle

Offline pippin

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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm

So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones. 

 - Ed Kyle
Wonder how well that works...

Offline luhai167

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Fairing debris were recovered near Shengjiaba within the NOTAMed area, suggesting that flight path was close to nominal at least until fairing separation
http://hb.qq.com/a/20160901/043481.htm

So this is the "expected" drop area? Within a town or village?
If that's true then WTF??
People are expected to evacuate from the drop zones. 

 - Ed Kyle
Wonder how well that works...
Well, that's problem with launching in China. People are everyone, when in places like the forest area near Shengjiaba where there is less people than the plains, but still lots of people compared to most countries. debris are bound to hit towns and villages once in a while. Which is why the space in Hainan was built.


30 hours after the launch there's zero/nada mentioning of this incident on any state media while the F9 Kaputnik filled the Chinese headlines......

I start to really think that they want to hide the news until at least after the G20 conference, if ever. :-X

Personally, I think it because even they are not sure exactly what happened, at least not enough to work out who to blame for it yet. Unlike the Brazil case, there is no external customer and the payload has possible military uses, so it better to keep things under the wrap than draw attention to it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: 09/02/2016 09:09 PM by luhai167 »

Offline Chris Bergin

Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

Offline Alter Sachse

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There was an official message about SJ 11-04 failure 18.08.2011 ?
Day after launch ?

Offline luhai167

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There was an official message about SJ 11-04 failure 18.08.2011 ?
Day after launch ?


http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2011-08/19/c_121880575.htm

SJ11-04 confirmed failed on 18-08-11 5pm and reported on 19-08-11 8am by Xinhua new agency.


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« Last Edit: 09/05/2016 09:43 PM by luhai167 »

Offline Alter Sachse

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There was an official message about SJ 11-04 failure 18.08.2011 ?
Day after launch ?


http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2011-08/19/c_121880575.htm

SJ11-04 confirmed failed on 18-08-11 5pm and reported on 19-08-11 8am by Xinhua new agency.


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Thank you !!

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.  :-X
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.
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Offline edkyle99

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Hey look we've made the tech news sites.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/06/china_silent_on_loss_of_gaofen_civilian_spy_sat/
Is it true that the images of drop zone debris have been removed by Chinese authorities?  I still see them on some of the web pages cited in this thread.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/07/2016 01:08 AM by edkyle99 »

Online russianhalo117

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Hey look we've made the tech news sites.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/06/china_silent_on_loss_of_gaofen_civilian_spy_sat/
Is it true that the images of drop zone debris have been removed by Chinese authorities?  I still see them on some of the web pages cited in this thread.

 - Ed Kyle
some of them appear to have been replaced with other images potentially not from this flight. USSTRATCOM has yet to find anything in orbit so far and others believe that it did not make a return to sender orbit either.

Offline luhai167

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Hey look we've made the tech news sites.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/06/china_silent_on_loss_of_gaofen_civilian_spy_sat/
Is it true that the images of drop zone debris have been removed by Chinese authorities?  I still see them on some of the web pages cited in this thread.

 - Ed Kyle
some of them appear to have been replaced with other images potentially not from this flight. USSTRATCOM has yet to find anything in orbit so far and others believe that it did not make a return to sender orbit either.
I have not seen any removal of news about 1st stage recovery, as for sites using random images from other launch es. that practice is very common in news media, since all rocket debris look the same to the average journalist and  general public.

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Online Galactic Penguin SST

Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.  :-X
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.

Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....  ::)
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Offline Sam Ho

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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.  :-X
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.

Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....  ::)

Peter B de Selding, quoting China Great Wall, seems to confirm it was a third stage problem:
Quote
China Great Wall Industry: Long March 4C failure Sept 1 was isolated to stage only used on 4C, so other Long March variants unaffected.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/775717510972858369

Offline sanman

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No chance it's a stealth payload, right?

Online russianhalo117

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No chance it's a stealth payload, right?
no just the usual civil satellite that is used by the Ministry of Defense and other ministries. Afterall some of the GF satellites are used to track the movements of the 200 and increasing number of US Naval vessels being moved to operate round the clock in the South China Sea as an escalation of allied forces.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2016 04:29 AM by russianhalo117 »

Offline limen4

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I am not sure if the image shows indeed GF-10.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2016 04:42 PM by limen4 »

Offline Skyrocket

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I am not sure if the image shows indeed GF-10.
What does the cover say, what it is?

Looks indeed new to me and appears not not to be a reuse of another satellite image previously shown on a cover.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2016 05:41 PM by Skyrocket »

Offline input~2

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The orange text says: "Gaofen-10 satellite launch commemoration"

Offline limen4

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... and the black rectangular postmark is saying that the launch was not succesfull due to a rocket failure.

Offline jcm

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Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.  :-X
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.

Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....  ::)

I know that LM-4C can restart its 3rd stage, but I thought that was mainly for depletion - do we know the detailed
launch profile of the 4C with the usual times of the burns?
I was under the impression that it mainly followed the old 4B profile with coast to stage 2 apogee and a single
insertion burn.

Oh, and any new news on this failure since October?
-----------------------------

Jonathan McDowell
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Online Galactic Penguin SST

Still nothing from the Chinese media? If anything they probably won't at all now as "announcing" it days later would look even worse.

I'm a day late, but there's still nothing at all.  :-X
Rumors are pointing to yet another 3rd stage problem.

Rumors today points to the 3rd stage failing to re-ignite. Given that the usual MET for a LM-4C launch is as short as <30 minutes, I think it's safe to say the transfer orbit dips below the atmosphere.....  ::)

I know that LM-4C can restart its 3rd stage, but I thought that was mainly for depletion - do we know the detailed
launch profile of the 4C with the usual times of the burns?
I was under the impression that it mainly followed the old 4B profile with coast to stage 2 apogee and a single
insertion burn.

Oh, and any new news on this failure since October?

Hmm I don't think so - you can find a timeline for the FY-3C launch in the post below and the time stamps were given as follows:

The projected times of the different launch phases are visible in this picture (posted on the 9ifly Chinese space forum).

2nd stage separation: T+04:54
3rd stage shutdown #1: T+09:59
3rd stage re-ignition: T+19:09
Spacecraft separation: T+20:36

Also you can see below that the performance graph to SSO for the CZ-4 series - the 4B curve falls out much faster than the 4C one as altitude increases. I doubt that using the re-ignition just for de-orbiting the third stage would result in such a difference. ;)

Unfortunately I don't see anything announced yet since October - maybe we will see some news when it returns to service  ::)

« Last Edit: 12/31/2016 05:56 AM by Galactic Penguin SST »
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline jcm

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 Thanks. I had those FY3C timings in my archive but had forgotten about them. Convincing.
 
 
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Today some PDF images(with unknown source so far, sorry I can't find the full PDF) about GF-10 circulates on Chinese Weibo, which indicates the GF-10 satellite was a 0.5m resolution SAR satellite(maybe YG-29 series?)

Quote
GF-10 SAR卫星的精度验证
条带模式无控平面精度优于3米
聚束模式无控平面精度优于1.5米
可生成干涉图像
立体精度满足1:10000测图精度
Launch Land Relaunch

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