Author Topic: Satellite Industry Assn's State of Satellite Industry Reports : 2017 released  (Read 5150 times)

Online gongora

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Satellite Industry Association's annual "State of Satellite Industry" report:
Download the pdf

Good overview of the satellite and launch market.

I found this via a tweet from Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline).w

edit: pdf for 2016 report attached
edit: 2017 Report in this post: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40437.msg1701400#msg1701400
« Last Edit: 09/10/2017 06:10 PM by gongora »

Online savuporo

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Interesting that these posts never see much discussion here.

There are two major yearly reports that i look forward to, SIA/Tauri one is this one
http://www.sia.org/annual-state-of-the-satellite-industry-reports/2014-sia-state-of-satellite-industry-report/
Other is COMSTAC - not yet published for this year
https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/

Some interesting points
- Global satellite industry grew 3% in 2015, slightly above worldwide economic growth (2.4%) and U.S. growth (2.5%)
- Every other industry segment is up in revenue, except launch industry - due to less orders
- US keeps leading the satellite manufacturing with 60% share
- For launchers, U.S. market share dropped from 50% in 2014 to 45% mainly because Arianespace experienced a 60% increase in orders from 2014 (10) to 2015 (16)

And other bits.

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Online high road

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Exceedingly strange. While there has been debate in the SpaceX section thread about the future evolution of the space economy (which was mostly a semantic discussion about the meaning of the term 'market elasticity' in economics), actual numbers and research (even if already mentioned on this site) are rarely referenced to, apart from being 'hard to find'.

Thx for the link. I'll be sure to pester some overly optimistic newspace fanboys or overly pessimistic oldspace fanboys with them.

Online savuporo

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..actual numbers and research (even if already mentioned on this site) are rarely referenced to, apart from being 'hard to find'.

I think it's got nothing to do with 'hard to find', but everything to do with the actual industry progress being mundane and incremental, as it always has been. 3% growth is pretty nice, but doesn't lend itself to clickbaity titles and righteous hyperventilation.

SIA overall industry report numbers go back past 90ies btw.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 07:44 PM by savuporo »
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Online savuporo

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Also, Tauri has the 2016 FAA Annual compendium compilation available now:

http://www.space.taurigroup.com/reports/FAA_Annual_Compendium_2016.pdf
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Offline Lar

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It's surprising how already small a slice of the total pie launch is...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online savuporo

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It's surprising how already small a slice of the total pie launch is...

Picturing the whole thing as a funnel, or more appropriately a value chain makes it straightforward

From :
http://www.euroconsult-ec.com/research/satellite-value-chain-2015-extract.pdf


« Last Edit: 09/05/2016 01:35 AM by savuporo »
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Online savuporo

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And now, a new report on how investment in space has evolved.

http://venturebeat.com/2016/09/10/space-techs-3-hottest-areas-for-investing/

Long story short, 2015 was a freak confluence of events, and there is no trend

Original source :
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/space-startups-funding-trends/
« Last Edit: 09/13/2016 04:48 PM by savuporo »
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Online savuporo

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ESA has their own take on space economy

http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/business_with_esa/Executive_Summary_Report_on_Space_Economy_2016-final.pdf

Quote
In 2015, the global space economy maintained its long-term growth trend, expanding from 14% compared to 2014 and totalling 291.4 billion EUR.
In the upstream manufacturing segment, the global market value for orbital launches in 2015 reached 7.2 billion EUR, of which 33% on the commercial market. Launching six vehicles with commercial payloads in 2015, Europe earned 27% of the global commercial launch market. The spacecraft market generated 32 billion EUR in 2015, of which 17% on the commercial market.
The overall consolidated turnover of the European manufacturing companies continued to rise at 7.5 billion EUR in 2015, up 4.5% from 20148. The core market of the European space manufacturers remains their large domestic market with European customers (public and private) representing about 75% of total sales.

...
Due to engineering complexity of space programmes, the space industry is home to highly skilled professionals. The U.S. space industry core workforce has declined 16% over the past 10 years, employing 220,882 employees in 2015. In Europe, the space manufacturing segment alone employed 40,196 employees in 2015. Japan saw a 3.2% increase in its space workforce, for a total of 8,232 employees in 2014
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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The one item in the ESA report that is missing from the other report is the "speed of money" multiplier value. The Launcher program spending shows a 8.1 multiplier for the general EU economy for every EU spent. This is the value that should be in the US economic impact report of the Space Industry report. This value is used to determine the effectiveness of government spending against its impact on the general economy.

An instance of a 8.1 multiplier in an environment where income is taxed at 15% yields more taxes in than money spent. So the net against the launch program of ESA is that they are actually getting more back in taxes than they spend. The program pays for itself.

Again this is the critical item in the economic impact of space spending by government that could increase the space spending by the US government. Such that if the multiplier is large enough that more is garnered in taxes for every $ spent of space makes the incentive to increase space spending so that even more taxes are generated making this endeavor a positive cash flow situation for the government vs many of the other spending which are negative cash flow.

Edit added: A BTW is that this indicates that the space industry activity causes a significant expansion of the total GDP throughout all other industries. Space Industry activity spending growth is a very positive multiplier effect on growth of the general GDP.
« Last Edit: 10/21/2016 02:14 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Online savuporo

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Two new space industry forecasts

EuroConsult's Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2025
http://euroconsult-ec.com/13_September_2016
http://www.euroconsult-ec.com/shop/home/86-satellites-to-be-built-launched-by-2025.html
Quote
Euroconsult anticipates that 145 satellites with launch mass over 50kg will be launched on average each year by 2025 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide. When including satellites smaller than 50kg and the two mega constellations of OneWeb and SpaceX, the total for the decade would grow precipitously to 9,000 units (vs. 1,480 launched in the past ten years.)

The 1,450 satellites over 50kg to be launched over 2016-2025 should represent a market of $250 billion for the space industry to build and launch. A price decrease is visible in this core market of the industry, driven by 11 commercial constellations using 370 small satellites to be deployed into low or medium Earth orbits for communications or Earth observation.

Still, over three quarters of the market remains with government satellites; the 880 satellites to be launched for civilian and military agencies in 60 countries represent a market of $193 billion. Governments dominate the space industry as established space countries replace and expand their in-orbit satellite systems and more countries acquire their first operational satellite systems, usually for communications or for Earth observation and imagery intelligence. About 85% of the government market will remain concentrated in the ten countries with an established space industry (U.S., Russia, China, Japan, India, and five European countries). The other 50 countries engaged in space activities will launch twice the number of satellites that they did inthe past ten years, i.e. almost 200 satellites. About half of these satellites will be procured from foreign manufacturers as domestic industry capabilities develop in these countries.

In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult anticipates a total of 560 satellites to be launched over the decade by 40 companies. Most of these satellites will be for the replacement of the communications capacity currently in orbit. Over two-thirds of the commercial space market remains concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of almost 300 satellites operated by 30 companies for communications and broadcasting services. The 11 commercial constellations to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for communications and Earth observation imagery should represent a market of $1.6 billion per year on average over the decade.


Research and Markets
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/publication/mtvbkbp/3845855
Satellite Communications & Broadcasting Markets Survey: Forecasts to 2025

Quote
The author forecasts that traffic carried over satellite will reach close to 3.5 Tbps  by 2025, with a 16% CAGR over the ten-year period. This corresponds to an upward revision of our previous forecasts, which also takes into account the anticipated massive increase in capacity supply over the period. The leasing of larger capacity volumes will however be at the expense of lower pricing, also in a context of heightening competition and falling fill rates. While regional situations will remain diverse, we estimate that the global average capacity ARPU could be halved when expressed in MHz by 2025. This combination of higher volumes and lower pricing leads us to a capacity market value that would stand at around $14 billion by 2025 compared to $11 billion in 2015.

The last year has confirmed the transformational nature of the satellite communication sector's current development phase, with the confirmed appeal of HTS for several user segments through the signing of capacity contracts and the announcement of broadband LEO constellation projects, even if most are still under development. The author projects total HTS capacity leased to more than triple in the next five years, supported by recently announced contracts for entire HTS payloads or beams.


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Online savuporo

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Offline PhotoEngineer

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It's surprising how already small a slice of the total pie launch is...

It's less surprising if you think of it as a single sale vs long term recurring revenue.  You make less per in operations per transaction but you can be in operations for years.

Online savuporo

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I like nice visualizations. So

Quote
World Government Expenditures for Space Programs •
Total $62.2 bn
US 35.9
Europe 10.4
China 4.9
Russia 3.2
Manned spaceflight 11.4

Via: https://twitter.com/AuerSusan/status/877236493227630593
https://twitter.com/euroconsultEC/status/875014146110222336

http://www.euroconsult-ec.com/30_May_2017

The $6K report itself is here: http://www.euroconsult-ec.com/shop/home/94-government-space-programs.html
« Last Edit: 06/20/2017 07:07 PM by savuporo »
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Offline deruch

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I like nice visualizations. So

Biggest head scratcher, why is the UAE spending so much on Space Programs?  Seriously.  They're outspending Israel by 2.5x and Israel both builds and launches their own satellites on an indigenous launcher while, as far as I know, UAE does neither.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline spacenut

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If the satellite industry grew at a 3% clip, that is better than the US and the World economy at about 2.5% each. 

I had a book I bought back in the early 70's and it said for every $1 spent on the space program in the 1960's it yielded $100 in new products.  From clothing and underware to electronics to metal alloys and heat resistant materials to medical monitoring equipment. 

Since WWII most advances in the world has been through military and space R&D. 

Today it seems private money is back in the game. 

Online gongora

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2017 SIA State of the Satellite Industry Report.

(I should probably combine this with the FAA annual report thread so we have them all in one place.)

edit: Corrected report attached, only difference is a minor edit on page 26 (the year listed in the center of the pie chart was wrong).
« Last Edit: 07/11/2017 07:41 PM by gongora »

Online savuporo

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Thanks for posting. Quite modest year, and signs for 2017 so far aren't much more encouraging. Small sat launch drop was significant and disappointing
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Online gongora

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Drop in small sats was pretty much entirely due to SHERPA delay after AMOS-6 accident.  Small sats should be up significantly this year considering there about 170 on just two flights. 

I want to see the satellite manufacturing revenue by sector chart after JWST launches  :)
« Last Edit: 07/11/2017 09:23 PM by gongora »

Online high road

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Aren't we just seeing the effect of procurers expecting prices to drop in the near future and postponing their orders? So satellite orders should jump up again starting in 2018. So in two or three years, this report might start to look a lot better.

Online savuporo

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Aren't we just seeing the effect of procurers expecting prices to drop in the near future and postponing their orders? So satellite orders should jump up again starting in 2018. So in two or three years, this report might start to look a lot better.

I don't think anyone expects satellite costs to drop, but HTS capability expectations are definitely causing a bit of paralysis. Good recent summary from PBdeS here:
http://spacenews.com/satellite-builders-say-customers-paralyzed-by-technology-financial-stresses/

Quote
Satellite manufacturers said they are being pulled in every direction by customers who want their spacecraft to last longer in orbit, or maybe only half as long, and who hesitate to finalize a purchase because it could be obsolete in a few years.

One of the consequences is a mediocre harvest of commercial geostationary-orbit satellite contracts, they said here Oct. 4-6 at the APSCC conference.

“It’s a bit like the iPhone 6 and iPhone 7 dilemma. Do I buy the 6 or wait until the next generation comes out?” said Arnaud de Rosnay, chief technology officer at Airbus Defence and Space of Europe.

( Sucks that mr de Selding left SN .. )
« Last Edit: 07/12/2017 09:50 PM by savuporo »
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Online savuporo

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Here's an interesting meta-analysis of space industry analysts, aka who watches the watchers.

https://spi.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/spi.elliott.gwu.edu/files/downloads/Articles/Boll%20Sloan%20Solem%20-%20Past%20and%20Future%3A%20An%20Analysis%20of%20the%20FAA%20Commercial%20Space%20Transportation%20Forecasts.pdf

Quote
Short-Term Recommendations
Recommendation One: Inform Forecast Consumers of Over-Optimism
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