Of course the project is far more ambitious than the Shuttle and launches could end up costing so much that they can't find any customers.
Blue Origin is an attempt by Bezos to rebalance the rocket business equation upset by SpaceX and Musk...
Musk is (I think) driven by the desire to improve the state of the art in rockets and be multiplanetary...
My guess... Is the other Rocket System players worldwide (China, Russia, Europe, India) are making some incremental changes to at least stay in the business...
But just like Boeing and Airbus now dominate the Airliner industry with some other profitable yet smaller players filling in behind...
The end game could be these two upstarts rising to domination... with the rest fading back to become more specialized... serving only country or specialized needs... However... at some point... I would expect at least a third major player to appear on the world stage... But only after say 2050...
Evaluation of Future Ariane Reusable VTOL Booster stages
Reusability is anticipated to strongly impact the launch service market if sufficient reliability and low refurbishment costs can be achieved. DLR is performing an extensive study on return methods for a reusable booster stage for a future launch vehicle. The present study focuses on the vertical take-off and vertical landing (VTOL) method. First, a restitution of a flight of Falcon 9 is resented in order to assess the accuracy of the tools used.
A few thoughts:I continue to be impressed with Elon's unique ability to create excitement and interest in space.I am flattered that several of our ideas are present in his Mars transport ConOps: Distributed launch, in orbit refueling, long duration cryo propulsion, etc..This is an impressively ambitious plan.I am also confident in our competitive strategy with Vulcan and ACES.I admire his single minded focus on Mars.I remain committed to serving the missions of my NASA, NRO, USAF, and Commercial customers, both in the future and today.I would like to see energy applied to the very real issue of the health effects of long term deep space travel as well as other Human Safety issues. Last year, in Guadalajara, Elon said that "People would die" and, during Q&A, that he, himself, would not make the trip. It would be a great message if he committed personally.I think our visions for becoming a multi-planetary species are a little different. Elon talks about how the Earth will inevitably suffer an extinction level event some day. So, if the species is to survive, it will be because Elon placed a life boat of thousands or perhaps millions on Mars who will carry on after the billions on earth are killed. When we open our risk window up to cosmic time scales, we all have to agree that the Universe is a pretty dangerous place, so this viewpoint has merit.I see our expansion beyond Earth a little differently. This is nothing less than our Human destiny. When we have a permanent and expanded presence outside this planet, it will fundamentally change what it means to be Human. This can happen in just a handful of years. A tremendous wealth of natural resources exists just in our Earth-Moon neighborhood. When we create a CisLunar economic zone, Nearly all of the things that are rare here on earth will be available in abundance, there will be nearly free, ubiquitous energy anywhere on the planet. Poverty will be eliminated. The conflicts that arise through a shortage of resources will end. The basic state of human dignity will lift beyond anything previously seen in human history.A thriving CisLunar economy will be self-sustaining. It will create wealth, not be a sink of resources. And it will afford us the opportunity to learn how to live in a non-earth-like environment, doing, so at a safe, week's journey from home. So that, as we press out to Mars and beyond, we will have learned the skills necessary to survive there. Tera forming is a very long way off. For the next century or so, we need to build the skills and experience necessary to live on planets without it.
When we create a CisLunar economic zone, Nearly all of the things that are rare here on earth will be available in abundance, there will be nearly free, ubiquitous energy anywhere on the planet. Poverty will be eliminated. The conflicts that arise through a shortage of resources will end. The basic state of human dignity will lift beyond anything previously seen in human history.
Cross post, but I think it belongs here, too.Tory Bruno about BFR: https://www.reddit.com/r/ula/comments/736dcv/what_are_everyones_thoughts_on_spacexs_recently/dnoqe74/...
The 'our ideas' line is me-too-ism at it finest.
Quote from: AncientU on 10/04/2017 01:13 pmThe 'our ideas' line is me-too-ism at it finest.Indeed. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43851.msg1731474#msg1731474That said: there is nothing really new about the BFR concept, as laid out by Elon in 2016 and 2017. Most of it has been proposed before so much of it isn't Elon's idea either.BUT, this is the first time that a private company is seriously attempting to make this a reality, without relying solely on government funding.
That's what is so damned frustrating about this business*... these concepts have been on the table for two generations (~50 years) and only now is someone taking the initiative to realize their benefits on an appropriate scale for interplanetary travel.* And yes, decades of stagnation(!) in spite of denial by those content with the status quo ante.
Quote from: AncientU on 10/04/2017 05:10 pmThat's what is so damned frustrating about this business*... these concepts have been on the table for two generations (~50 years) and only now is someone taking the initiative to realize their benefits on an appropriate scale for interplanetary travel.* And yes, decades of stagnation(!) in spite of denial by those content with the status quo ante.My suspicion is, that it took until now to make these concepts viable. Before it would have taken a program in the magnitude of Apollo to realize them. Now, thanks to technological advances, it's within the reach of a single company.
Quote from: jpo234 on 10/04/2017 05:24 pmQuote from: AncientU on 10/04/2017 05:10 pmThat's what is so damned frustrating about this business*... these concepts have been on the table for two generations (~50 years) and only now is someone taking the initiative to realize their benefits on an appropriate scale for interplanetary travel.* And yes, decades of stagnation(!) in spite of denial by those content with the status quo ante.My suspicion is, that it took until now to make these concepts viable. Before it would have taken a program in the magnitude of Apollo to realize them. Now, thanks to technological advances, it's within the reach of a single company.I think it's also because STS ruined the image of RLV economic viability for a few decades. "Not enough demand," they would say.
My suspicion is, that it took until now to make these concepts viable. Before it would have taken a program in the magnitude of Apollo to realize them. Now, thanks to technological advances, it's within the reach of a single company.
Quote from: Pipcard on 10/04/2017 05:49 pmQuote from: jpo234 on 10/04/2017 05:24 pmQuote from: AncientU on 10/04/2017 05:10 pmThat's what is so damned frustrating about this business*... these concepts have been on the table for two generations (~50 years) and only now is someone taking the initiative to realize their benefits on an appropriate scale for interplanetary travel.* And yes, decades of stagnation(!) in spite of denial by those content with the status quo ante.My suspicion is, that it took until now to make these concepts viable. Before it would have taken a program in the magnitude of Apollo to realize them. Now, thanks to technological advances, it's within the reach of a single company.I think it's also because STS ruined the image of RLV economic viability for a few decades. "Not enough demand," they would say.Shuttle wasn't a true RLV, though. It was a partial RLV, and a significant fraction of its cost was expended hardware for every mission.
Quote from: envy887 on 10/04/2017 06:02 pmQuote from: Pipcard on 10/04/2017 05:49 pmQuote from: jpo234 on 10/04/2017 05:24 pmQuote from: AncientU on 10/04/2017 05:10 pmThat's what is so damned frustrating about this business*... these concepts have been on the table for two generations (~50 years) and only now is someone taking the initiative to realize their benefits on an appropriate scale for interplanetary travel.* And yes, decades of stagnation(!) in spite of denial by those content with the status quo ante.My suspicion is, that it took until now to make these concepts viable. Before it would have taken a program in the magnitude of Apollo to realize them. Now, thanks to technological advances, it's within the reach of a single company.I think it's also because STS ruined the image of RLV economic viability for a few decades. "Not enough demand," they would say.Shuttle wasn't a true RLV, though. It was a partial RLV, and a significant fraction of its cost was expended hardware for every mission.Indeed, the partial reusability aspect of Falcon 9 is much better than STS. But the main argument that was used to dismiss RLVs was that there wasn't enough demand to support the flight rates - even Robotbeat claimed that 40+ flights/year were needed for a fully reusable launch vehicle (8 for partial), although he currently believes that the internet constellation can fulfill that requirement.